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"[ABSTRAKKenaikan harga-harga properti hunian di Indonesia pada kurun waktu2010-2012 telah menimbulkan kekhawatiran akan adanya bubble. Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi potensi bubble di pasar properti hunian dengan menggunakan 5 (lima) indikator: perbandingan antara harga rumah aktual denganharga rumah berdasarkan predicted value-nya, perbandingan harga aktual dengan harga fundamentalnya berdasarkan ekspektasi rasional, mengukur price to income ratio dan price to rent ratio, menganalisis pertumbuhan kredit properti serta melibatkan control chart.Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa properti jenis apartemen menunjukan adanya indikasi bubble, namun untuk tipe perumahan, walaupun mengalami kenaikan di tahun 2012, bukan merupakan indikasi bubble. Hal ini dibuktikan dari hasil regresi yang dibuat menunjukan bahwa kenaikan harga rumah lebihdisebabkan oleh perubahan faktor fundamental seperti peningkatan pendapatan penduduk, pertumbuhan populasi, tingkat inflasi yang stabil dan tingkat pengangguran yang cenderung turun, secara signifikan mempengaruhi kenaikan harga rumah.

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ABSTRACTThe high increase of Indonesias property prices, particularly in theresidential sector, during 2010-2012 has created a concern that it would lead to a bubble. This study aims to investigate the potential housing bubble in Indonesia using a combination of five (5) quantitative indicators, namely: a comparison between actual and predicted housing value, a comparison between actual price and fundamental price based on rational expectation, the price-to-income ratio and the price-to-rent ratio, development of mortgage loans and control chart as a statistical tool to quantify housing / apartment bubbles.The results suggest that the apartment sector was on its way of forming bubble in 2012, whereas the landed-house sector showed no indications of an impending bubble. Furthermore, based on the regression analysis, the rise of landed-house price was in line with fundamental factors such as increase in income, population growth, inflation and lower unemployment rate.;The high increase of Indonesia?s property prices, particularly in theresidential sector, during 2010 ? 2012 has created a concern that it would lead to abubble. This study aims to investigate the potential housing bubble in Indonesiausing a combination of five (5) quantitative indicators, namely: a comparisonbetween actual and predicted housing value, a comparison between actual priceand fundamental price based on rational expectation, the price-to-income ratio andthe price-to-rent ratio, development of mortgage loans and control chart as astatistical tool to quantify housing / apartment bubbles.The results suggest that the apartment sector was on its way of formingbubble in 2012, whereas the landed-house sector showed no indications of animpending bubble. Furthermore, based on the regression analysis, the rise oflanded-house price was in line with fundamental factors such as increase inincome, population growth, inflation and lower unemployment rate., The high increase of Indonesia’s property prices, particularly in theresidential sector, during 2010 – 2012 has created a concern that it would lead to abubble. This study aims to investigate the potential housing bubble in Indonesiausing a combination of five (5) quantitative indicators, namely: a comparisonbetween actual and predicted housing value, a comparison between actual priceand fundamental price based on rational expectation, the price-to-income ratio andthe price-to-rent ratio, development of mortgage loans and control chart as astatistical tool to quantify housing / apartment bubbles.The results suggest that the apartment sector was on its way of formingbubble in 2012, whereas the landed-house sector showed no indications of animpending bubble. Furthermore, based on the regression analysis, the rise oflanded-house price was in line with fundamental factors such as increase inincome, population growth, inflation and lower unemployment rate.]"

"[ABSTRAKKenaikan harga-harga properti hunian di Indonesia pada kurun waktu2010 ? 2012 telah menimbulkan kekhawatiran akan adanya bubble. Studi inibertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi potensi bubble di pasar properti hunian denganmenggunakan 5 (lima) indikator: perbandingan antara harga rumah aktual denganharga rumah berdasarkan predicted value-nya, perbandingan harga aktual denganharga fundamentalnya berdasarkan ekspektasi rasional, mengukur price to incomeratio dan price to rent ratio, menganalisis pertumbuhan kredit properti sertamelibatkan control chart.Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa properti jenis apartemen menunjukanadanya indikasi bubble, namun untuk tipe perumahan, walaupun mengalamikenaikan di tahun 2012, bukan merupakan indikasi bubble. Hal ini dibuktikan darihasil regresi yang dibuat menunjukan bahwa kenaikan harga rumah lebihdisebabkan oleh perubahan faktor fundamental seperti peningkatan pendapatanpenduduk, pertumbuhan populasi, tingkat inflasi yang stabil dan tingkatpengangguran yang cenderung turun, secara signifikan mempengaruhi kenaikanharga rumah.

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ABSTRACTThe high increase of Indonesia?s property prices, particularly in theresidential sector, during 2010 ? 2012 has created a concern that it would lead to abubble. This study aims to investigate the potential housing bubble in Indonesiausing a combination of five (5) quantitative indicators, namely: a comparisonbetween actual and predicted housing value, a comparison between actual priceand fundamental price based on rational expectation, the price-to-income ratio andthe price-to-rent ratio, development of mortgage loans and control chart as astatistical tool to quantify housing / apartment bubbles.The results suggest that the apartment sector was on its way of formingbubble in 2012, whereas the landed-house sector showed no indications of animpending bubble. Furthermore, based on the regression analysis, the rise oflanded-house price was in line with fundamental factors such as increase inincome, population growth, inflation and lower unemployment rate, The high increase of Indonesia’s property prices, particularly in theresidential sector, during 2010 – 2012 has created a concern that it would lead to abubble. This study aims to investigate the potential housing bubble in Indonesiausing a combination of five (5) quantitative indicators, namely: a comparisonbetween actual and predicted housing value, a comparison between actual priceand fundamental price based on rational expectation, the price-to-income ratio andthe price-to-rent ratio, development of mortgage loans and control chart as astatistical tool to quantify housing / apartment bubbles.The results suggest that the apartment sector was on its way of formingbubble in 2012, whereas the landed-house sector showed no indications of animpending bubble. Furthermore, based on the regression analysis, the rise oflanded-house price was in line with fundamental factors such as increase inincome, population growth, inflation and lower unemployment rate]"

"Investasi di dalam sektor properti dapat berupa investasi pada pasar rill/properti real atau pasar finansial/sekuritas sektor properti. Waktu yang tepat untuk memasuki pasar investasi riil atau finansial menjadi salah satu hal penting dalam keputusan investasi. Salah satu hal yang dibutuhkan investor dalam membuat keputusan investasi pada sektor properti adalah mengetahui dinamika pergerakan dari investasi riil dan investasi finansial sektor properti sebagai benchmark untuk menentukan waktu yang tepat memasuki pasar properti riil atau finansial. Karya akhir ini memiliki dua tujuan utama yaitu untuk mengevaluasi dinamika hubungan jangka panjang antara investasi riil sektor properti dengan investasi finansial sektor properti dan untuk mengevaluasi dinamika hubungan jangka pendek antara kedua jenis investasi pada sektor properti tersebut.

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Investment in property sector can be an investment in the real market or financial market. Time will be one of the most important in the decision making when investor will enter the investment market. One thing that is required by investors in making investment decisions in the property sector was to determine the dynamics of the movement from real investment and financial investment property sector as a benchmark to determine the appropriate time to enter the real or financial property markets. This thesis has two main objectives, to evaluate the dynamics of long-term relationship between real investment and financial investment in property sector and to evaluate the short-term dynamics of the relationship between the two types of investment in the property sector."

"ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengestimasi dampak capital inflows terhadap harga properti dan stabilitas sistem keuangan (SSK) di ASEAN 5 serta hubungan simultan antara kedua variabel dependen. Dengan menggunakan data panel, dampak capital inflows terhadap harga properti dan stabilitas sistem keuangan di ASEAN 5 serta hubungan simultan antar kedua variabel dependen diuji dengan model panel simultan 2SLS yaitu dengan menambahkan variabel instrumen pada model estimasi untuk menyelesaikan permasalahan endogenitas (korelasi antara regresi independen dengan variabel dengan error) pada model penelitian. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa capital inflows yang besar ke kawasan ASEAN 5 menyebabkan peningkatan harga properti yang signifikan di kawasan tersebut. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga menemukan bahwa harga properti dan stabilitas sistem keuangan terbukti memiliki hubungan simultan. Di satu sisi, pengaruh harga properti terhadap SSK adalah positif dan signifikan. Di sisi lain, pengaruh SSK tterhadap harga properti tidak menunjukan hasil yang signifkan.

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ABSTRACTThis study aims to estimate the impact of capital inflows on property prices and financial system stability (SSK) in ASEAN 5 and simultaneous relations between the two dependent variables. By using panel data, the impact of capital inflows on property prices and financial system stability in ASEAN 5 and simultaneous relations between the two dependent variables were tested with 2SLS simultaneous panel models, namely by adding instrument variables to the estimation model to solve endogenous problems (correlation between independent regression and variables with errors) in the research model. The estimation results show that large capital inflows to the ASEAN 5 region cause a significant increase in property prices in the region. In addition, this study also found that property prices and financial system stability proved to have a simultaneous relationship. On the one hand, the effect of property prices on the SSK is positive and significant. On the other hand, the effect of the SSK on property prices does not show significant results."

"Properti residensial atau yang biasa disebut sebagai rumah merupakan salah satu kebutuhan pokok manusia sebagai tempat berlindung, untuk dapat terus melanjutkan kehidupan. Meningkatnya jumlah penduduk di Indonesia, mengindikasikan bahwa kebutuhan akan properti residensial juga akan ikut bertambah. Pergerakan harga properti residensial di Indonesia dapat diamati dari Indeks Harga Properti Residensial (IHPR) yang dikeluarkan oleh Bank Indonesia. Harga properti residensial dapat dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor. Misalnya dalam faktor ekonomi, pergerakan harga properti residensial dapat dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor seperti inflasi, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dan suku bunga kredit. Forecasting Indeks Harga Properti Residensial (IHPR) dapat dilakukan dengan pemodelan times series. Pemodelan Indeks Harga Properti Residensial (IHPR) yang diketahui dipengaruhi oleh tiga variabel lainnya memerlukan model time series multivariat. Model fungsi transfer multi input adalah salah satu model time series multivariat yang dapat digunakan dalam memodelkan Indeks Harga Properti Residensial (IHPR). Pada model fungsi transfer multi input terdapat runtun output (yt) yaitu Indeks Harga Properti Residensial (IHPR) yang diperkirakan dipengaruhi oleh beberapa variabel input (xjt) yaitu inflasi, IHSG dan suku bunga kredit. Berdasarkan model yang telah didapatkan pada penelitian ini, dapat diketahui bahwa ramalan IHPR pada waktu ke-t dipengaruhi oleh besarnya inflasi pada dua bulan sebelumnya sampai lima bulan sebelumnya, dipengaruhi oleh suku bunga kredit tanpa penundaan sehingga dipengaruhi oleh waktu ke-t sampai tiga bulan sebelumnya. IHPR pada waktu ke t dipengaruhi oleh IHSG juga tanpa penundaan, yaitu dipengaruhi waktu ke-t sampai pada empat bulan sebelumnya. IHPR pada waktu ke-t juga dipengaruhi oleh dirinya sendiri pada waktu ke t-1 atau satu bulan sebelumnya hingga empat bulan sebelumnya

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Residential property or commonly referred as home is one of the basic human needs as a shelter, to be able to continue to live. As the population in Indonesia increases, indicate the need for residential property will also increase. The movement of residential property prices in Indonesia can be observed from the Residential Property Price Index (IHPR) issued by Bank Indonesia. Residential property prices can be influenced by several factors. For example in economic factors, the movement of residential property prices can be influenced by several factors such as inflation, the Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) and loan interest rates. Forecasting the Residential Property Price Index (IHPR) can be done with times series modeling. Modeling Residential Property Price Index (CPI) which is known to be influenced by three other variables requires a multivariate time series model. The multi-input transfer function model is a multivariate time series model that can be used in modeling the Residential Property Price Index (IHPR). In the multi-input transfer function model there is an output series (yt) which is the Residential Property Price Index (IHPR) which is estimated to be influenced by several input series (xjt), which are inflation, CSPI and loan interest rates. Based on the model obtained in this study, it can be seen that the prediction of IHPR at the t-time is influenced by the amount of inflation in the previous two months to the previous five months. Then also influenced by loan interest rates without delay so that it is influenced by the t-time until the previous three months. Then influenced by the CSPI also without delay, which is influenced by the t-time until the previous four months. IHPR at the t-time is also influenced by itself at the t-1 time or one month before to four months before."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menemukan bukti empiris apakah perubahan Upah Minimum Kabupaten/Kota mempengaruhi harga properti residensial tipe kecil. Motivasi untuk studi ini berasal dari kekhawatiran bahwa salah satu dampak dari peningkatan daya beli masyarakat (akibat peningkatan UMK) salah satunya adalah meningkatnya harga properti residensial (terutama tipe kecil yang merupakan target dari pembeli dengan pendapatan level UMK). Namun, ada kekurangan studi empiris tentang dampak peningkatan UMK tersebut karena selama ini belum ada penelitian yang menggunakan perubahan UMK sebagai variabel penjelas utama. Dengan menggunakan fixed-effect model, penelitian ini menemukan bahwa kekhawatiran bahwa peningkatan UMK akan meningkatkan harga properti residensial tidak terjadi untuk tipe kecil.

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This study aims to find empirical evidence whether changes in the District/City Minimum Wage affect the price of small type residential properties. The motivation for this study comes from concerns that one of the impacts of increasing people's purchasing power (due to an increase in MSEs) is the increase in residential property prices (especially small types that are the target of buyers with MSE-level income). However, there is a lack of empirical studies on the impact of increasing MSEs because so far there has been no research that uses MSE changes as the main explanatory variable. Using a fixed-effect model, the study found that concerns that increasing MSEs would increase residential property prices did not occur for small types."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis bagaimana pengaruh perubahan harga properti residensial terhadap performa bank di Indoneisa, dengan melihat pengaruh variabel control seperti makroekonomi, firm specific, dan Covid19. Penelitian ini menggunakan sampel 38 perusahaan perbankan yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia pada periode tahun 2007 hingga 2021. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat pengaruh yang positif dan signifikan antara perubahan harga properti residensial dengan ROAA dan pengaruh negatif signifikan antara perubahan harga properti residensial terhadap NPL rasio perbankan.

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This study aims to analyze how changes in residential property prices affect the performance of banks in Indonesia, by looking at the influence of control variables such as macroeconomics, firm specific, and Covid19. This study uses a sample of 38 banking companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the period 2007 to 2021. The results show that there is a positive and significant effect between changes in residential property prices and ROAA and a significant negative effect between changes in residential property prices on NPL banking ratios."