Hasil Pencarian  ::  Simpan CSV :: Kembali

Abstrak :
ABSTRAK
Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui apakah indikator makroekonomi, harga minyak dunia, dan indeks saham luar negeri berpengaruh signifikan secara bersama-sama dan secara parsial terhadap pergerakan Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). Metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode analisis regresi berganda. Data yang digunakan adalah data bulanan BI rate, nilai tukar, tingkat inflasi, jumlah uang beredar, harga minyak dunia, indeks Dow Jones, indeks FTSE 100, dan indeks Hang Seng dengan periode Januari 2005 hingga November 2012.

Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa indikator makroekonomi, harga minyak dunia, dan indeks saham luar negeri secara bersama-sama berpengaruh signifikan terhadap Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) dengan nilai adjusted R square adalah 50.8%. Ini berarti 50.8% pergerakan Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) dapat diprediksi dari pergerakan indikator makroekonomi, harga minyak dunia, dan indeks saham luar negeri. Nilai tukar berpengaruh secara negatif terhadap pergerakan Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). Harga minyak dunia, dan indeks Hang Seng berpengaruh secara positif terhadap pergerakan Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). Sementara, BI rate, jumlah uang beredar, tingkat inflasi, indeks Dow Jones (DJIA), dan indeks FTSE 100 tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap terhadap pergerakan Jakarta Islamic Index (JII).,

---

ABSTRACT
The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of the macroeconomics indicator, oil price, and world stock index against Jakarta Islamic Index simultaneously and partially. The analytical method used in this study is multiple regression analysis. This research using a monthly data from January 2005 – November 2012 for each variable.

Results from this study indicate that the macroeconomics indicator, oil price, and world stock exchange influence simultaneously against Jakarta Islamic Index with value of adjusted R square adalah 50.8%. This means that 49.2% IHSG movement can be predicted from the macroeconomics indicator, oil price, and world stock exchange. Exchange rate influence Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) negatively. Oil price, and Hang Seng index influence againts Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) positively. While BI rate, money supply, inflation rate, indeks Dow Jones (DJIA), and indeks FTSE 100 is not influence significantly against Jakarta Islamic Index (JII).

Abstrak :
[ABSTRAK
Fenomena yang dihadapi masyarakat Indonesia pada akhir tahun 2014 adalah kenaikan harga bahan bakar minyak jenis Premium akibat pemotongan subsidi.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meneliti adanya pengaruh tingkat harga Premium terhadap perilaku berpindah merek dari produk subsidi ke produk Nonsubsidi. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian deskriptif dengan menggunakan 142 responden yang merupakan konsumen bahan bakar minyak jenis Premium dalam kurun waktu tiga bulan terakhir dari pengambilan data.Instrumen penelitian ini menggunakan kuesioner.Metode pengolahan data menggunakan analisis diskriminan dengan menggunakan SPSS 20.0.Hasil penelitian menunjukan terdapat pengaruh tingkat harga bahan bakar minyak jenisPremium terhadap perilaku berpindah merek konsumen Premium.Penelitian ini juga mengungkapkan pengaruh etnosentrisme terhadap keputusan berpindah ke Pertamax atau pindah ke Non-Pertamina.Hasil penelitian menyarankan kepada Pertamina untuk senantiasa mengevaluasi kebijakan harga bahan bakar minyak jenis Premium dan memberikan pendekatan pesan yang berbeda bagi konsumen dengan tingkat kecenderungan etnosentrisme yang berbeda;

---

ABSTRACT
During the end of 2014, Indonesian consumer is facing an increase in the subsidized fuel ("Premium") price due to the government policy to cut fuel subsidy. This research will focus on the effect of subsidized fuel price level towards the respondent's switching behaviour to non-subsidized fuel ("Pertamax" or "Non-Pertamina").This research is a descriptive research with 142respondent whom has been using "Premium" fuel in the last three months (february-may). The instrument used is a questionnaire and the data is analyzed using discriminant analysis in SPSS 20.0. Result shows that there is an effect of subsidized fuel pricelevel and ethnocentrism toward consumer's switching behaviour and decision. This findings suggest that Pertamina should evaluate the "Premium"'s pricepolicy and to give a different approach in messaging the consumer based on their ethnocentricism tendency.;During the end of 2014, Indonesian consumer is facing an increase in the subsidized fuel ("Premium") price due to the government policy to cut fuel subsidy. This research will focus on the effect of subsidized fuel price level towards the respondent's switching behaviour to non-subsidized fuel ("Pertamax" or "Non-Pertamina").This research is a descriptive research with 142respondent whom has been using "Premium" fuel in the last three months (february-may). The instrument used is a questionnaire and the data is analyzed using discriminant analysis in SPSS 20.0. Result shows that there is an effect of subsidized fuel pricelevel and ethnocentrism toward consumer's switching behaviour and decision. This findings suggest that Pertamina should evaluate the "Premium"'s pricepolicy and to give a different approach in messaging the consumer based on their ethnocentricism tendency.;During the end of 2014, Indonesian consumer is facing an increase in the subsidized fuel ("Premium") price due to the government policy to cut fuel subsidy. This research will focus on the effect of subsidized fuel price level towards the respondent's switching behaviour to non-subsidized fuel ("Pertamax" or "Non-Pertamina").This research is a descriptive research with 142respondent whom has been using "Premium" fuel in the last three months (february-may). The instrument used is a questionnaire and the data is analyzed using discriminant analysis in SPSS 20.0. Result shows that there is an effect of subsidized fuel pricelevel and ethnocentrism toward consumer's switching behaviour and decision. This findings suggest that Pertamina should evaluate the "Premium"'s pricepolicy and to give a different approach in messaging the consumer based on their ethnocentricism tendency.;During the end of 2014, Indonesian consumer is facing an increase in the subsidized fuel ("Premium") price due to the government policy to cut fuel subsidy. This research will focus on the effect of subsidized fuel price level towards the respondent's switching behaviour to non-subsidized fuel ("Pertamax" or "Non-Pertamina").This research is a descriptive research with 142respondent whom has been using "Premium" fuel in the last three months (february-may). The instrument used is a questionnaire and the data is analyzed using discriminant analysis in SPSS 20.0. Result shows that there is an effect of subsidized fuel pricelevel and ethnocentrism toward consumer's switching behaviour and decision. This findings suggest that Pertamina should evaluate the "Premium"'s pricepolicy and to give a different approach in messaging the consumer based on their ethnocentricism tendency., During the end of 2014, Indonesian consumer is facing an increase in the subsidized fuel ("Premium") price due to the government policy to cut fuel subsidy. This research will focus on the effect of subsidized fuel price level towards the respondent's switching behaviour to non-subsidized fuel ("Pertamax" or "Non-Pertamina").This research is a descriptive research with 142respondent whom has been using "Premium" fuel in the last three months (february-may). The instrument used is a questionnaire and the data is analyzed using discriminant analysis in SPSS 20.0. Result shows that there is an effect of subsidized fuel pricelevel and ethnocentrism toward consumer's switching behaviour and decision. This findings suggest that Pertamina should evaluate the "Premium"'s pricepolicy and to give a different approach in messaging the consumer based on their ethnocentricism tendency.]

Abstrak :
Tesis ini membahas mengenai optimasi Alokasi BBM Solar Subsidi pada suatu wilayah distribusi. Untuk mengetahui berapa jumlah Alokasi BBM Solar Subsidi yang sesuai pada suatu wilayah distribusi menjadi tujuan dari optimasi. Hal ini dapat diperoleh dengan menggunakan beberapa parameter yang dijadikan kriteria optimasi dan kendala - kendala yang membatasi fungsi tujuan dari optimasi. Untuk melakukan optimasi Alokasi BBM Solar Subsidi pada suatu wilayah distribusi tersebut digunakan metode Program Linear.

---

This thesis discusses the optimization of the diesel fuel subsidy allocation in a distribution area. To find out how much diesel fuel subsidy allocation corresponding to a distribution area is the objective of optimization. This can be obtained by using some parameters used as optimization criteria and constraints - constraints that limit the objective function of optimization. To perform the optimization allocation of diesel fuel subsidies in an area that distribution method is used Linear Program.

Abstrak :
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis mengenai volatility spillover antara harga minyak, indeks LQ45 dan Jakarta Islamic Index pada periode bulan Juli 2010 sampai dengan Februari 2018. Model yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah bivariate GARCH 1,1-full BEKK. Hasil empiris pada penelitian ini, yaitu ditemukannya bukti bahwa terdapat volatility spillover baik antara harga minyak mentah dunia dengan indeks LQ45 maupun Jakarta Islamic Index. ......This study intends to examine the volatility spillover between crude oil prices, LQ45 index and Jakarta Islamic Index from July 2010 to February 2018. The model utilized as a part of this exploration is bivariate GARCH 1,1 full BEKK. The exact outcome in this exploration is discovering confirmation of a decent volatility spillover from crude oil prices to LQ45 index and oil prices to Jakarta Islamic Index.

Abstrak :
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat pengaruh dari harga minyak mentah dan faktor-faktor fundamental yang meliputi perubahan net operating cash flow, perubahan nilai cadangan migas terbukti (proved reerve) dan perubahan tingkat produksi minyak dan gas bumi terhadap profitabilitas yang diproksikan dengan ROE serta imbal hasil saham. Sampel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah perusahaan minyak dan gas bumi yang terdaftar di 4 (empat) bursa saham, yakni New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), London Stock Exchange (LSE), Australia Securities Exchange (ASX) dan Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) pada periode 2007-2010. Hasil penelitian ini menemukan bahwa harga minyak dan perubahan net operating cash flow berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap ROE dan return saham. Sedangkan perubahan nilai cadangan terbukti dan perubahan tingkat produksi minyak dan gas bumi tidak berpengaruh terhadap ROE dan return saham. ......This study aims to examine the effect of crude oil prices and fundamental factors. These fundamental factors includes changes in net operating cash flow, changes in value of oil and gas proved reserves and also changes in value of oil and gas production on profitability which described by return on equity (ROE) and stock return of international oil and gas companies. Sample that used in this study are oil and gas companies listed in 4 (four) stock exchanges; the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), London Stock Exchange (LSE), Australia Securities Exchange (ASX) and Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) for the period from 2007 until 2010. The results of this study found that crude oil prices and changes in net operating cash flow have positive and significant impact to ROE and stock return. While changes in the value of oil and gas proved reserve and oil and gas production has no significant impact to ROE and stock return.

Abstrak :
ABSTRAK
Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pengaruh dari pergerakan harga minyak mentah Indonesia dan variabel makroekonomi terhadap indeks harga saham sektor pertambangan. Variabel makroekonomi yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah suku bunga SBI, nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat, dan inflasi. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder yang dari Januari 2005 s/d Desember 2011. Pengolahan data dalam penelitian ini menggunakan teknik analisis vector error correction model (VECM) dengan menggunakan data time series. Hasil dari pengolahan data menunjukkan bahwa variabel harga minyak mentah Indonesia paling berpengaruh terhadap indeks harga saham pertambangan.

---

ABSTRACT
This research is aimed to indentify the influence of Indonesian crude oil price and macro economic variables to the Mining Sector Index. The macro variabel used are, rate of certified of Bank Indonesia, the exchange rate of rupiah to dollar US, and inflation. Data used in this research is secondary data from January 2005 to December 2011. Research method used in this study is Vector Error Correction Model and used time series data. The result of this research shows that the crude oil price significantly to mining sector index.

Abstrak :
Perubahan (kenaikan) harga minyak internasional mempunyai dampak ekonomi yang besar pada negara pengimpor minyak ncto. Untuk melihat pengaruh perubahan harga minyak internasional pada perekonomian domestik maka diperlukan model yang mampu menangkap perilaku pelaku ekonomi yang mempunyai ekspektasi terhadap setiap perubahan. Sementara model makro ekonometri struktural tidak dapat digunakan untuk pembentukan kebijakan karena mengandung Lucas Critique. Disertasi ini menganalisis pengaruh perubahan harga minyak internasional pada variabel makroekonomi dan respon kebijakan moneter di Indonesia dengan menggunakan model Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, Model makroekonomi ini adalah berdasarkan mikroekonomi dalam New Keynesian tradition. Model memasukan minyak untuk konsumsi rumah tangga dan faktor input dalam produksi, Parameter dalam model diestimasi melalui metode Bayesian dengan teknik simulasi Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Metode ini mengkombinasikan prior information dan data historis. Parameter estimasi menunjukkan karakteristik perekonomian Indonesia. Perilaku rumah tangga dipengaruhi oleh cukup tingginya tingkat habit persistence dalam konsumsi, rendahnya clastisitas penawaran tenaga kerja, rendahnya elastisitas substitusi konsumsi produk minyak dan produk non-minyak, dan rendahnya elastisitas substitusi konsumsi barang-barang domestik dan barang-barang luar negeri. Produsen Iebih sering melakukan pengaturan harga ulang dibanding pengaturan kembali upah optimal dengan tingkat penyesuaian terhadap inflasi periode lalu untuk upah lebih besar daripada harga. Elastisitas substitusi tenaga kerja dan minyak dalam produksi dan elastisitas permintaan barang domestik kc luar negeri mempunyai nilai yang rendah. Selanjutnya, respon kebijakan moneter berupa interest rate reaction function (Taylor rule) menghasilkan parameter estimasi yang sesuai dengan Strategi kebijakan Bank Indonesia. Walaupun penelitian ini memiliki keterbatasan, model ini masih mampu memberikan simulasi impulse response untuk menjelaskan perilaku dinamis perekonomian dan menggambarkan mekanisme transmisi pengaruh perubahan harga minyak internasional di Indonesia. ......The change (increase) of intcmational oil price causes immense economic impact to net oil-importer countries. In order to observe the influence ofthe change of international oil price in domestic economy, it is necessary to use a model which can contain the behavior of the agents who have expectation to every change. However, the model of structural macro econometric cannot be applied to construct policy for thc reason that it contains Lucas Critique. This dissertation analyzes the influence of the change of international oil price to the variables macroeconomic and the response of the monetaiy policy in Indonesia, using the model of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium. This macroeconomic model is based on the microeconomic foundation in New Keynesian tradition, The model includes oil for household consumption and input factor in production, The parameter in the model is estimated by using Bayesian method with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation techniquc. This method combines prior information and historical data. Estimation parameter describes the characteristics of Indonesia's economy. The household behavior is affected by the moderately high level of habit persistence in consumption, the low elasticity of labor supply, the low elasticity of substitution between oil and non-oil consumption goods, and the low elasticity of substitution between domestic and Foreign consumption goods. Producers tend to instantaneously make pricing adjustment more fiequent than making wage re-optimizadon by way of amendment amount to the past inflation period for wage higher than price. The elasticity of substitution between labor and oil in production, and the elasticity of demands for domestic goods hom foreign countries are low. Subsequently, the response of the monetary policy in form of interest rate reaction function (Taylor rule) results the estimation parameter which is suitable to the policy strategy from Bank Indonesia. Despite the imperfection of this study, the model can still give impulse response simulation to explain dynamic behaviour of economy and to illustrate the transmission mechanism for the influence of the change of international oil price in Indonesia.

Abstrak :
This book examines the dynamic relationship and volatility spillovers between crude oil prices, exchange rates and stock markets of India. Unfortunately very little research has been conducted to analyze the volatility spillovers and dynamic relationship between crude oil prices, exchange rates and stock markets of India.

Abstrak :
ABSTRAK Minyak bumi dalam PELITA VI ini masih merupakan sumber energi nasional terbesar yang tingkat konsumsinya kian hari kian meningkat. Dengan keterbatasan tingkat produksi dan cadangan, diperkirakan pada awal abad ke-21 (sekitar 15 tahun lagi), Indonesia akan menjadi net oil importer. Gas bumi sebagai salah satu alternatif energi selain minyak, saat ini telah turut pula menyumbang bagi pendapatan negara. Bahkan dengan status cadangan yang cukup besar, dapat menjadi suatu potensi sumber energi dan pendapatan yang cukup besar bagi negara. Menghadapi era perdagangan bebas mendatang, persaingan industri gas bumi khususnya dalam bentuk LNG akan semakin ketat. Diperkirakan, tingkat penawaran akan melebihi tingkat permintaan sehingga perlu adanya suatu cara untuk mengendalikan harga LNG tersebut. Dalam tesis ini dilakukan suatu penelitian melalui analisa data, prediksi dan simulasi untuk merumuskan model pengendalian harga LNG ini. sebagai studi kasus diambil proyek Natuna yang merupakan cadangan gas bumi terbesar di Indonesia saat ini. Hasil optimum dari model pengendalian harga LNG ini adalah suatu Formula Pengendalian Harga LNG yaitu PA = k1.U.M + k2.B - D yang mampu memberikan solusi yang cepat dan akurat untuk penentuan harga LNG di masa datang.

---

ABSTRACT Crude oil will still be the nation energy resources in the sixth five-year-plan. The increasing of oil consumption causes this unrenewable resources' prediction that Indonesia would become a net oil importer for the next fifteen years. As an alternative energy, natural gas become another source of income for Indonesia especially with an ample reserves. Natural gas industry's competition particularly in LNG will become keener than ever in the free market era. The growth of supply which is estimated to exceed the demand level, will cause the price of LNG to become a major concern in the future. In this paper, data, prediction and simulation were used to set a model of Indonesia LNG price controller, Natuna project with the biggest natural reserves was chosen as the case study of this paper. The optimum result of this research is a formula of PA = k1.U.M + k2.B - D which is found to be an accurate and quick solution for the best future price of LNG.

Abstrak :
Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisa hubungan kausalitas Granger antara variabel peringkat risiko negara, ketidakpastian kebijakan ekonomi (EPU), sentimen investor dan harga minyak terhadap returns saham secara spesifik di pasar negara berkembang selama periode Januari 2010 hingga Desember 2019 dengan menggunakan model kausalitas nonlinear non-parametrik Granger serta Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), dan hasil dari penelitian menemukan hubungan kausalitas Granger-VECM jangka pendak dan jangka panjang pada variabel harga minyak yang cukup signifikan dalam memprediksi returns saham di pasar negara berkembang serta dibutuhkan penelitian lebih lanjut atas penggunaan Credit Default Swap sebagai proksi variabel peringkat risiko negara dalam memprediksi returns saham. ......This research analyzes the causal relationship between country risk rating, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), investor sentiment, oil prices and equity returns in several emerging markets over  a decade. We use the nonlinear non-parametric Granger causality model and Vector Error Correction model to describe and investigate the causal correlation between country risk rating, economic policy uncertainty, oil prices, and investor sentiment and equity returns at the original level. We find Granger causal relationship-VECM with oil prices to predict stock returns in emerging markets and further research is suggested to investigate the usage of Credit Default Swap as country risk rating proxy to predict stock markets returns.