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"ABSTRAKBackground: Community-acquired pneumonia is an acute infection of the lung parenchyma transmitted from the community with a high mortality rate. Predictors of mortality include the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and CURB-65, and the biomarkers procalcitonin and D-dimers. Prealbumin (also known as transthyretin) is a biomarker for protein calorie malnutrition and has shown a positive correlation to negative patient outcomes in several different conditions. This study aims to study how prealbumin can be used as a predictor of mortality in CAP. Method: Articles were identified by searching 4 databases and screened for eligibility; 2 articles were eligible for this study. Assessment was done using the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tools and the Prognosis Critical Appraisal form. Result: The two articles assessed in this study have found that prealbumin is correlated with negative outcomes, particularly mortality. The studies have found that the patients who died had low serum prealbumin levels at admission.Conclusion: Serum prealbumin concentration is the preferred biomarker for protein calorie malnutrition as it is more sensitive compared to other biomarkers. There is a strong correlation between low serum prealbumin concentration upon admission with negative patient outcomes for patients with CAP. Further studies should include a wider range of subjects, specifically in age, and investigate the role of prealbumin as a predictor of malnutrition or inflammation and how it correlates to negative patient outcomes."

"Latar Belakang : Skor CURB 65 merupakan salah satu sistem prediksimortalitas akibat pneumonia komunitas yang cukup mudah dan valid namuntingkat prediksinya tidak cukup tinggi. Prealbumin sebagai marka yangsensitif terhadap malnutrisi dapat digunakan sebagai prediktor mortalitaspada pasien usia lanjut dengan pneumonia komunitas. Tujuan : Mengetahui kemampuan skor CURB 65 dan prealbumin dalam memprediksi mortalitas pada pasien usia lanjut dengan pneumonia komunitas. Metoda : Penelitian kohort prospektif pada pasien usia lanjut yang dirawat diRS Dr M Djamil dan RS swasta Padang kurun waktu Mei Desember 2012. Pengambilan data untuk menentukan skor CURB 65 dan prealbumin dilakukan pada 24 jam pertama setelah didiagnosis lalu diikuti hingga 30 hari untuk menentukan status mortalitasnya. Kemampuan prediksi mortalitas skor CURB 65 dan prealbumin discriminatory power dinilai dengan menentukan area under receiver operating characteristic curve AUC dan interval kepercayaan 95. Hasil : Didapatkan 158 subyek usia lanjut dengan mortalitas 30 hari sebesar 50 Skor CURB 65 mempunyai diskriminasi cukup baik dengan AUC skorCURB 65 0 741 IK 95 0 664 0 818. Sedangkan prealbumin mempunyai diskriminasi cukup baik untuk kejadian non mortalitas dengan AUC prealbumin 0 674 IK 95 0 589 0 759. Penambahan prealbumin terhadap skor CURB 65 meningkatkan kemampuan diskriminasi skor CURB 65 sebesar 4 5 AUC 0 786 IK 95 0 716 0 856. Kesimpulan : Penambahan prealbumin terhadap skor CURB 65 meningkatkan kemampuan diskriminasi mortalitas usia lanjut denganpneumonia komunitas dari 74 1 menjadi 78 6. Nilai prediksi mortalitaspada prealbumin.

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Background : CURB-65score is one of mortality prediction systems for community pneumonia that is quite easy and valid , but the predictionlevel is not high enough. Prealbumin , as a sensitive marker of malnutrition can be used as a predictor of mortality in elderly patients with community pneumonia.

Aim : Determine the ability of CURB - 65 score and prealbumin in predicting mortality in elderly patients with community pneumonia.

Method : Prospective cohort study was held in elderly patients that were admitted to Dr. M. Djamil hospital and private hospitals Padang in period of May 2012 - December 2012. Data collection was to determine the CURB - 65 score and prealbumin done in the first 24 hours after diagnosed , and then followed up to 30 days to determine mortality status. Ability of mortality prediction CURB - 65 scores and prealbumin ( discriminatory power ) was assessed by determining the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ( AUC ) and 95% confidence intervals.

Result : Obtained 158 elderly subjects with 30-day mortality by 50 %. CURB - 65 score had a pretty good discrimination with AUC CURB - 65 score of 0.741 ( 95 % CI 0.664 to 0.818 ). Whereas prealbumin had a pretty good discrimination for non- mortality incident with prealbumin AUC 0.674 ( 95 % CI 0.589-0.759 ). The addition of prealbumin to CURB-65score increased discrimination ability of CURB - 65 score about 4.5 % ( AUC 0.786 [ 95 % CI 0.716-0.856 ] ).

Conclusion : The addition of prealbumin to CURB - 65 score increases discrimination capability of elderly mortality with community pneumonia of 74.1 % to 78.6 %. Prediction of mortality in prealbumin values < 17.75 mg / dl by 67%."

"ABSTRAKVentilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) merupakan infeksi nosokomial yang paling sering diteuka di intensive care unit (ICU) dan memiliki angka mortalitas yang tinggi. Hipoalbuminemia telah lama diketahui sebagai pertanda prognosis buruk pada pasien dengan penyakit kritis, namun peranannya pada pasien VAP belum jelas diketahui. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui peranan albumin serum inisial dalam memprediksi mortalitas pasien VAP.Metode: Kami melakukan penelitian kohort retrospektif dengan menganalisis data pasien VAP yang dirawat di rumah sakit Cipto Mangunkusumo selama kurun waktu tahun 2003- 2012. Pasien dibagi menjadi tiga kelompok berdasarkan kadar albumin serum inisial: Grup-1 (kurang dari 2,7 g/dL), Grup-2 (2,7-3,5 g/dL), Grup-3 (lebih dari 3,5 g/dL). Risiko mortalitas selama perawatan dianalisis dengan Cox propotional hazard model. Hasil: Dari 194 pasien yang diikutsertakan, sebanyak 95 (49%) pasien termasuk dalam Grup-1, 83 (42,8%) pasien termasuk dalam Grup-2 dan 16 (8,2%) pasien termasuk dalam Grup-3. Mortalitas selama perawatan terjadi terjadi pada 58,2% subjek. Rasio hazard terjadinya mortalitas untuk Grup-1 dan Grup-2 adalah 2,48 (IK 95% 1,07 sampai 5,74; p = 0,033) dan 1,42 (IK 95% 0,60 sampai 3,34; p = 0,43) apabila dibandingkan dengan Grup-3.Simpulan: Adanya hipoalbuminemia akan meningkatkan risiko mortalitas. Kadar serum albumin inisial sebaiknya dipertimbangkan sebagai prediktor mortalitas pada pasien VAP."

"Latar Belakang: Sepsis merupakan masalah kesehatan global dan memiliki morbiditas dan mortalitas yang tinggi. Rasio neutrofil-limfosit merupakan pemeriksaan sederhana yang dapat dilakukan di fasilitas terbatas dan tidak memerlukan biaya besar, tetapi belum ada studi yang meneliti perannya dalam memprediksi mortalitas 28 hari pada pasien sepsis, menggunakan kriteria sepsis-3 yang lebih spesifik. Tujuan: Mengetahui peran rasio neutrofil-limfosit dalam memprediksi mortalitas 28 hari pada pasien sepsis. Metode: Penelitian ini menggunakan desain kohort retrospektif terhadap pasien sepsis yang dirawat di RSCM pada tahun 2017. Data diambil dari rekam medis pada bulan Maret-Mei 2018. Nilai rasio neutrofil-limfosit yang optimal didapatkan menggunakan kurva ROC. Subjek kemudian dibagi menjadi dua kelompok yang di bawah dan di atas titik potong. Kedua kelompok kemudian dianalisis menggunakan analisis kesintasan dengan program SPSS. Hasil: Dari 326 subjek, terdapat 12 subjek loss to follow-up. Rerata usia sampel 56,4 + 14,9 tahun, dengan fokus infeksi terbanyak di saluran napas (59,8%), dan penyakit komorbid terbanyak adalah keganasan padat (29,1%). Nilai titik potong rasio neutrofil-limfosit yang optimal adalah 13,3 (AUC 0,650, p < 0,05, sensitivitas 63%, spesifisitas 63%). Pada analisis bivariat menggunakan cox regression didapatkan kelompok dengan nilai rasio neutrofil-limfosit> 13,3 memiliki crude HR sebesar 1,84 (IK 95% 1,39-2,43) dibandingkan dengan kelompok yang nilai rasio neutrofil-limfosit < 13,3. Setelah menyingkirkan kemungkinan faktor perancu, didapatkan adjusted HR untuk kelompok dengan nilai rasio neutrofil-limfosit tinggi adalah 1,60 (IK 95% 1,21-2,12). Simpulan: Nilai rasio neutrofil-limfosit memiliki akurasi lemah dalam memprediksi mortalitas 28 hari pasien sepsis dengan nilai titik potong optimal 13,33. Kelompok dengan nilai rasio neutrofil-limfosit > 13,3 memiliki risiko mortalitas 28 hari yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan kelompok nilai rasio neutrofil-limfosit < 13,3.

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Background: Sepsis is a global health problem with high morbidity and mortality. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio is a simple test which can be done in limited facility, but there is no study conducted to know its potential in predicting 28-day-mortality in septic patients, using the more specific sepsis-3 criteria.

Objectives: To investigate neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio as a predictor of 28-day-mortality in septic patients.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using medical records in Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital for septic patients who were admitted in 2017. Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio cut off was determined using ROC curve, then subjects were divided into two groups according to its neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio value. The groups were analyzed using survival analysis with SPSS.

Result: From 326 subjects, 12 subjects were loss to follow-up. Age mean was 56.4 + 14.9 years. Lung infection (59.8%) was the most frequent source of infections and solid tumor (29.1%) was the most frequent comorbidities. The optimal cut off value for neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio was 13.3 (AUC 0.650, p < 0.05, sensitivity 63%, specificity 63%). Bivariate analysis using cox regression showed that group with neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio > 13.3 had greater risk for 28-day-mortality than group with neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio < 13.3 with crude HR 1.84 (95% CI 1.39-2.43). After adjustment for possible confounding, adjusted HR for group with higher neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio was 1.60 (95% CI 1.21-2.12).

Conclusion: Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio had poor accuracy in predicting 28-day-mortality in septic patients with 13.3 as the optimal cut off value. Group with neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio > 13.3 had greater significant risk for mortality in 28 days than group with neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio < 13.3."

"Introduction: This study aims to know the performance of the Vascular – Physiological and Operative Severity Score for Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (V-POSSUM) score as a predictor of 30-day mortality after the Endovascular Aortic Aneurysm Repair (EVAR) – Thoracic Endovascular Aortic Repair (TEVAR) procedure in Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms (AAA) and Thoracic Aortic Aneurysms (TAA) patients in Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital. Method: This was a retrospective cohort study using data from medical records. Data were taken according to the variables contained in the V-POSSUM scoring system in the patient who undergone EVAR – TEVAR procedure, on the period of 2013 to July 2018. Results: The study involved 85 patients who met the study requirements. It was known that physiological scores, morbidity risk, and mortality risk could be used as a model to predict mortality outcomes because they had good accuracy and discrimination performance, while the severity of the operation score cannot. The result of the goodness of fit model’s physiological score, morbidity risk, and mortality risk was significant (p <0.001), while the severity score of the operation was 0.18 (p >0.05). The Area Under the Curve (AUC) was 94%, 93%, 93%, with the cut points at 31, 68.8, and 10.6 for the physiological score, morbidity risk, and mortality risk, respectively. Conclusion: The V-POSSUM score had good accuracy and discrimination for the physiological score, morbidity risk, and mortality risk."

"Latar belakang: Modified Blalock-Taussig shunt (MBTS) merupakan prosedur bedah jantung sederhana namun memiliki angka mortalitas cukup tinggi. Karakteristik terutama usia pasien yang menjalani prosedur MBTS di Indonesia berbeda dengan negara lain.Tujuan: Membandingkan angka mortalitas operatif MBTS berdasarkan kriteria usia dan  mengidentifikasi faktor prediktor mortalitas operatif dan morbiditas pascaoperasi MBTS.Metode: Penelitian ini merupakan studi kohort retrospektif mortalitas pada 400 pasien yang menjalani operasi MBTS di Rumah Sakit Jantung dan Pembuluh Darah Harapan Kita.Hasil: Mortalitas berdasarkan kriteria usia yaitu 32,1% pada usia ≤ 28 hari, 19,9% pada usia 29-365 hari, 3,6% pada usia 366-1825 hari dan 8% pada usia > 1825 hari. Berat badan kurang dari 3 kg, kadar hematokrit lebih dari 45% sebelum operasi dan kadar activated partial thromboplastine time (aPTT) < 60 detik sebagai prediktor mortalitas. Transfusi packed red cell  (PRC) > 6 ml/kg, penggunaan ventilasi mekanik dan penggunaan prostaglandin preoperasi dan kadar aPTT < 60 detik 4 jam pasca operasi terbukti sebagai prediktor morbiditas.Kesimpulan: Terdapat perbedaan bermakna angka mortalitas pascaoperasi berdasarkan usia. Kriteria usia tidak terbukti sebagai prediktor mortalitas. Berat badan < 3 kg meningkatkan mortalitas. Prediktor morbiditas pascaoperasi adalah transfusi PRC > 6ml/kg, penggunaan ventilator, penggunaan prostaglandin dan kadar aPTT < 60 detik.

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Background: Modified Blalock-Taussig shunt (MBTS) is a simple procedure but has a considerable operative mortality rate. Patient’s characteristics who underwent MBTS in Indonesia is different than other country. There was no predictor of operative mortality has been identified in Indonesian.

Objectives: To compare mortality rate based on age criteria and to identify mortality and morbidity predictors after MBTS procedure.

Methods: A retrospectively cohort study was conducted on 400 patients who underwent MBTS at National cardiovascular center Harapan Kita (NCCHK).

Results: There were 32,1% death at age ≤ 28 days, 19,9% at age 29-365 days, 3,6% at age 366-1825 days and 8% at age > 1825 days. Body weight < 3 kg, haematocrite level > 45% before procedure and activated partial thromboplastine time level (aPTT) < 60 seconds were operative mortality  predictors. Packed red cell  transfusion (PRC) > 6 ml/kg, mechanical ventilator and prostaglandin E1 use before procedure, aPTT level < 60 seconds after procedure were identified as postoperative morbidity predictors.

Conclusion: age was not proven as an operative mortality predictors. Body weight < 3 kg increase mortality rate. Postoperative morbidity predictors were PRC transfusion > 6ml/kg, aPTT level < 60 seconds, mechanical ventilator and prostaglandine E1 use."

"Pendahuluan:Peningkatan kadar laktat pada saat masuk UPI secara independent berhubungan dengan outcome yang buruk. Kadar laktat sebagai parameter prognostik di UPI RSCM belum pemah diteliti sebelumnya. Pada penelitian pendahulu, skor SAPS II menunjukkan kemampuan yang baik dalam memprediksi mortalitas di UPI. Penelitian ini bertujuan membandingkan kadar laktat arteri inisial dengan SAPS II sebagai prediktor mortalitas di UPI RSCM.Pasien & Metode:Suatu studi observasi yang prospektif selama periode bulan April sampai Juni 2006 yang dilakukan di UPI bedah-medik. Data dikumpulkan dari 153 pasien yang memenuhi kriteria penerimaan. Data dasar: kadar laktat arteri inisial pada sate jam pertama masuk UPI dan 24 jam pertama untuk skor SAPS II. Mortalitas UPI pun dicatat. Analisis statistik menggunakan Uji Student t and chi-square. Kurva ROC (Receiver Operating Curve) dibuat dan titik potong optimal ditetapkan serta luas daerah di bawah kurva dihitung, untuk menilai untuk nilai prognostik kadar laktat arteri inisial dan SAPS II. Koefisien Pearson digunakan un tuk menganalisa hubungan antara kadar laktat inisial dan skor SAPS II.Hasil:Dari 153 pasien yang memenuhi kriteria, 16 pasien (10,5%) mengalami kematian di UPI. Kelompok survivor memiliki rerata kadar laktat arteri inisial dan skor SAPS II yang lebih rendah dibandingkan kelompok nonsurvivor. Terdapat perbedaan yang berrnakna antara kadar laktat dan mortalitas UPI (p=0,001). Titik potong ditetapkan 3 mmolll. Analisis ROC menunjukkan bahwa kadar laktat arteri inisial (leas daerah di bawah kurva=0,732) tidak lebih baik bila dibandingkan dengan skor SAPS II (luas daerah di bawah kurva=0,915) sebagai prediktor mortalitas di UPI. Terdapat hubungan yang lemah antara kadar laktat arteri inisial dan SAPS II (p=0,002).Kesimpulan:Kadar laktat arteri inisial dan skor SAPS H yang tinggi secara independent berhubungan dengan peningkatan mortalitas UPI di UPI RSCM.

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Introduction:

Elevated lactate levels on ICU admission have been independently associated with poor outcome. The prognostic values of this value have not been investigated in Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital's ICU

Patients & Methods:

A prospective observational study over a periode from April to June 2006 was conducted in a medical-surgical ICU. Data were extracted from ICU data base: arterial blood lactate at the first hour on admission and the worst clinical & laboratory findings in the first 24 hours for SAPS II scoring. ICU mortality are also recorded. Statistical analyses were performed using Student t-test and chi-square tests_ Receiver Operating Curve were constructed, the optimal cut off point have been obtained and area under curve was used to assess the prognostic value of initial arterial lactate and SAPS H. The coefficient of Pearson were analyzed to assess the relation between initial lactate levels and SAPS II score.

Main Outcome:

Of the 153 evaluable patients, 16 patients (10.5%) were died in ICU Survivor had a lower mean of arterial lactate levels and SAPS II score than nonsurvivor). The mean of initial arterial lactate in survivor group is low than the nonsurvivor. There are a sign{flcant differences between initial lactate level and ICU mortality (p=0,001). The cut off point was obtained at 3.0 mmolll. ROC analysis demonstrated that initial arterial lactate level (AUC=0.732) is worsen than SAPS II Score (AUC=0,915) as a predictor of ICU mortality. There is a weak correlation between initial lactate and SAPS II score.

Conclusion:

An high initial arterial lactate and SAP II score are independently associated with increased ICU mortality in Cipto Mangunkusumo Central Hospital."

"Latar Belakang: Kematian akibat luka bakar di RSCM masih tinggi yaitu berkisar 34%. Data menunjukkan sebagian besar pasien yang dirawat di unit luka bakar (ULB) mengalami disfungsi organ. Skor SOFA merupakan salah satu skor yang menilai disfungsi organ, namun hingga saat ini belum ada penelitian tentang kesahihan skor SOFA pada pasien kritis luka bakar di Indonesia. Penelitian ini ingin menguji kesahihan skor SOFA untuk memprediksi mortalitas pada pasien kritis akibat luka bakar di HCU dan ICU ULB RSCM. Metode: Penelitian ini merupakan studi kohort retrospektif dengan total subjek yang dianalisis sebanyak 169 subjek. Kesahihan skor SOFA dinilai menggunakan Area Under Curve, Hosmer Lemeshow goodness of fit dan regresi logistik multivariat. Hasil: Mortalitas pasien luka bakar pada penelitian ini adalah 32,5%. Hasil analisis statistik menunjukkan bahwa skor SOFA memiliki diskriminasi yang sangat baik (AUC 96,4%, IK 95% 0,933-0,995) dan kalibrasi yang baik (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0,561). Variabel SOFA yang secara statistik mempunyai pengaruh signifikan terhadap mortalitas 30 hari di ULB adalah rasio PaO2/FiO2< 400, PaO2/FiO2 < 300, PaO2/FiO2 < 200 dengan ventilasi mekanik dan jumlah trombosit < 150,000/mm3. Simpulan: Skor SOFA sahih dalam memprediksi mortalitas 30 hari pasien kritis luka bakar di HCU dan ICU ULB RSCM.

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Background: Mortality rate of burn in Ciptomangunkusumo Hospital is around 34%. Data shows that most patient in burn units experience organ dysfunction. SOFA score assesses organ dysfunction and frequently used in ICU, but there is no research about this score in burn unit especially in Indonesia. This study wants to assess validity of SOFA score in predicting mortality of critical burn patients in HCU and ICU Ciptomangunkusumo Hospital. Methods: This study was a retrospective cohort study and analized 169 total subjects. SOFA score validity was assessed using Area Under Curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit and multivariate logistic regression. Result: The mortality rate of burn patients is 32,5%. SOFA score had very good discrimination (AUC 96.4%, CI 95% 0.933-0.995) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.561). SOFA variables which statistically have significant effect on 30-day mortality in Burn Unit is ratio of PaO2/FiO2 < 400, PaO2/FiO2 < 300, PaO2/FiO2 < 200 with mechanical ventilation and platelet count < 150,000/mm3. Conclusion: SOFA score is valid in predicting 30 days mortality of critically ill burn patients in HCU and ICU RSCM."

"Latar Belakang: Beberapa penelitian telah menunjukkan bahwa hipokloremia berhubungan dengan peningkatan rehospitalisasi dan mortalitas pada pasien dengan gagal jantung (chloride hypothesis). Akan tetapi, penelitian-penelitian tersebut hanya membandingkan kelompok pasien gagal jantung dengan hipokloremia dengan kelompok normokloremia saat admisi. Tujuan: Mengetahui pengaruh normalisasi kadar klorida terhadap rehospitalisasi dan mortalitas pasien gagal jantung. Metode: Dilakukan penelitian kohort prospektif pasien gagal jantung dekompensasi akut (GJDA) yang dirawat inap dari September 2018 sampai Februari 2019. Pasien dengan hipokloremia dan normonatremia saat admisi dibagi menjadi kelompok hipokloremia persisten hingga saat pemulangan dibanding kelompok normokloremia saat pemulangan. Luaran primer adalah rehospitalisasi karena gagal jantung dalam 180 hari. Luaran sekunder adalah mortalitas dalam 180 hari. Hasil: Terdapat 162 pasien (53,6%) yang termasuk dalam kelompok hipokloremia persisten dan 140 pasien (46,3%) yang termasuk dalam kelompok normokloremia saat pemulangan. Model regresi Cox menunjukkan hipokloremia persisten tidak berkaitan bermakna dengan peningkatan rehospitalisasi karena gagal jantung (hazard ratio 1,21; interval kepercayaan 95% 0,78-1,89; p 0,392) dan mortalitas (hazard ratio 1,39; interval kepercayaan 95% 0,74-2,65; p 0,305) dibandingkan dengan kelompok normokloremia saat pemulangan. Kesimpulan: Hipokloremia persisten pada pasien GJDA bukan merupakan prediktor independen terhadap rehospitalisasi gagal jantung dan mortalitas.

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Background: Recent studies have shown that hypochloremia is associated with increased risk of rehospitalization and death in patients with heart failure (chloride hypothesis). In these studies, however, patients with hypochloremia were compared only with patients with a normal chloride level at hospital admission. Aim: To evaluate the effect of the normalization of serum chloride on the heart failure to rehospitalization and mortality. Method: This was a prospective cohort study of patients hospitalized for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) from September 2018 to February 2019. Patients with hypochloremia and normonatremia at admission were divided into patients with persistent hypochloremia at the time of discharge and patients who achieved normalization of their serum chloride levels at discharge. The primary outcome was 180-day rehospitalization. The secondary outcome was 180-day mortality.

Results: There were 162 patients (53,6%) with persistent hypochloremia and 140 patients (46,3%) with normochloremia at discharge. Cox regression model indicated persistent hypochloremia did not significantly predict heart failure rehospitalisation (hazard ratio 1.21; 95% confidence interval 0.78-1.89; p 0.392) and mortality (hazard ratio 1.39; 95% confidence interval 0.74-2.65; p 0.305) compared with group of normochloremia at discharge.

Conclusion: Persistent hypochloremia in ADHF patients is not an independent predictor of heart failure rehospitalisation and mortality."

"Latar Belakang: Angka kejadian fraktur panggul meningkat seiring pertambahan jumlah usia lanjut. Fraktur panggul pada usia lanjut meningkatkan risiko mortalitas terutama pada enam bulan pasca fraktur. Tujuan : menentukan kemampuan faktor prediktor dan model sistem skoring prediksi mortalitas 6 bulan pada usia lanjut dengan fraktur panggul. Metode : Penelitian dengan desain studi kohort berbasis prognostic research pada paisen usia lanjut ≥ 60 tahun dengan fraktur panggul yang datang ke Rumah Sakit. Subjek diikuti untuk dinilai status mortalitas dalam 6 bulan pasca fraktur. Dilakukan analisis regresi logistik untuk menentukan prediktor yang bermakna dan dilakukan sistem skoring prediktor. Hasil : Pada 262 subjek, didapatkan wanita 75,6%, pria 24,4%, median usia 74,5 (60-94 tahun). Usia ≥ 80 tahun (RO 3,67, IK95% 1,68–8,0), Pria (RO 2,69, IK95% 1,18-6,13), CCI≥2 (RO5,77, IK95% 2,51-13,26), Malnutrisi (RO 9,30, IK95% 4,35-19,86), dan Tatalaksana Non Operatif (RO 2,79, IK95% 1,34-5,78) merupakan faktor-faktor prediktor mortalitas 6 bulan pada pasien usia lanjut dengan fraktur panggul yang bermakna secara statistik. Didapatkan ambang skor prediktor mortalitas yang terbaik adalah pada skor ≥3 dengan sensitifitas 81% dan spesifitas 83%. Kesimpulan. Faktor Usia ≥ 80 tahun, Jenis Kelamin Pria, Komorbiditas CCI≥2, Malnutrisi dan Tatalaksana Non Operatif, dengan ambang skor ≥ 3 mempunyai kemampuan prediksi yang baik terhadap mortalitas dalam 6 bulan pada pasien usia lanjut yang datang ke Rumah Sakit.

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Backgrounds : The incidence of hip fracture increases as the number of elderly. Hip fractures in the elderly have a risk of mortality.

Aim : To determine factors predictive ability of both models and a scoring system of six-month mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture

Methods : It was a prognostic-based cohort study design in the elderly with hip fracture in the hospital setting. Subjects followed his mortality status assessed within 6 months after the hip fracture. Both of logistic regression analysis and scoring system were performed.

Results : In 262 subjects, 75.6 % female, 24.4 % male, median age 74.5 (60-94 years old). The Age ≥80 years old (OR 3.67, 95%CI, 1.68 to 8.0), Male (OR 2.69, 95%CI, 1.18 to 6.13), CCI ≥ 2 (OR 5.77, 95%CI, 2.51 to 13.26), Malnutrition (OR 9.30, 95%CI, 4.35 to 19.86), and Non-Operative Procedures (OR 2.79, 95%CI, 1.34 to 5.78) was a predictor factor of six-months mortality in the elderly patients with hip fracture statistically significant. The cut of point of a score of ≥ 3 was the best predictor with a sensitivity of 81 % and specificity of 83 %

Conclusion : The age ≥80 years old, Male, CCI ≥ 2, Malnutrition, and Non-Operative procedures with the cut of point score ≥ 3 is a predictive model of sixmonth mortality in elderly patients with hip fracture."