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"ABSTRAK

Studi ini menganalisa perilaku pricing dari eksportir produk industri Indonesia berdasarkan heterogenitas pasar dengan mengestimasi derajat Exchange Rate Pass Through (ERPT) dari harga ekspor produk industri Indonesia (pada level 4 digit klasifikasi Harmonized System) terhadap 3 negara mitra dagang utamanya dalam menghadapi fluktuasi nilai tukar pada periode 2005-2014. Dilakukan estimasi model regresi data panel Pricing to Market (PTM) untuk ekspor ke pasar China, US, dan Jepang, membedakan produk homogen dengan produk terdiferensiasi dengan mengontrol tingkat inflasi dan keterbukaan perdagangan di negara mitra dagang, indeks kebijakan makroekonomi yang merefleksikan perubahan cost eksportir, share eksportir di negara tujuan ekspor dan share produk yang di ekspor ke negara tujuan terhadap total ekspor. Hasil studi menemukan bahwa derajat PTM secara signifikan berbeda antara produk homogen dengan produk terdiferensiasi, tetapi heterogenitas pasar tidak secara signifikan menyebabkan perbedaan derajat PTM. Perilaku PTM yang dipraktekan oleh eksportir Indonesia dapat membatasi keefektifan nilai tukar sebagai instrumen untuk memperbaiki neraca perdagangan.

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ABSTRACT

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In this paper we studied pricing behaviour of Indonesian industrial product exporters based on market heterogeneity by estimating the degree of Exchange Rate Pass Through (ERPT) of  industrial product`s export price (at the-4 digit level of Harmonized System classification) to 3 Indonesian major trading partners in facing the exchange rate fluctuations during 2005-2014. We estimate a Pricing to Market (PTM) model using panel data regression for exports to China, US, and Japan markets, distinguishing homogeneous from differentiated goods and correcting for changes in the level of inflation and openness in the export destination market, a maroeconomic policy index partly reflecting changes in exporter`s costs, the share of the exporter in the destination market and the share of the products in the exporter`s total exports. We find that PTM significantly different between homogeneous and differentiated products, but the market heterogeneity does not significantly differ the level of PTM. The PTM behaviour that conducted by Indonesian exporters limit the effectiveness of exchange rate as an instrument to fix the trade balance.

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"ABSTRAKIndustri pertambangan batubara menjadi pendukung pembangunan nasional melalui perannya sebagai penyumbang lebih dari 12 persen nilai ekspor Indonesia. Peran dan keberlangsungannya rentan terhadap volatilitas harga komoditas dan perkembangan ekonomi global. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis volatilitas harga batubara selama periode 2009 ndash; 2014 serta dampaknya terhadap kinerja ekspor batubara Indonesia. Dengan menggunakan model ARCH/GARCH volatilitas harga batubara acuan HBA bervariasi antar waktu time varying dan rata-rata dibawah volatilitas harga minyak Indonesian Crude Price ICP . Analisis dengan metode Error Correction Model ECM menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas HBA berpengaruh positif terhadap kinerja ekspor dengan penyesuaian keseimbangan pada periode berikutnya. Volatilitas ICP cenderung berdampak negatif terhadap kinerja ekspor sesuai perannya sebagai faktor produksi batubara.

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ABSTRACTCoal mining industry supporting national development through its role as a contributor to more than 12 percent of Indonesia 39 s export value. The role and sustainability are vulnerable to commodity price volatility and global economic developments. This study aims to analyze coal prices volatility during period 2009 to 2014 and its impact on Indonesian coal exports performance. Analyze using GARCH model shows that reference coal price HBA volatility varies over time and below Indonesian Crude Price ICP volatility. Error Correction Model ECM analysis shows HBA volatility has positive effect on export performance with balance adjustment in the next period. ICP volatility tends to negatively impact on export performance according to the role as a coal production factor."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor apa saja yang mempengaruhi konsumsi rokok yang tidak memenuhi ketentuan mengenai batasan Harga Transaksi Pasar di 34 Provinsi di Indonesia dan menganalisis dampak yang mempengaruhi pemantauan Harga Transaksi Pasar Tembakau oleh Direktorat Jenderal Bea dan Cukai. Selain itu, penelitian ini menghitung estimasi proporsi rokok yang tidak memenuhi aturan harga transaksi pasar minimum dengan membandingkan data rokok yang dikonsumsi menggunakan SUSENAS dengan aturan Harga Transaksi Pasar. Penelitian ini menerapkan model regresi panel fixed effect untuk memperkirakan dampak kebijakan pemantauan Harga Transaksi Pasar Produk Tembakau terhadap konsumsi rokok yang tidak memenuhi ketentuan HTP tahun 2016-2019. Kajian ini menemukan bahwa kenaikan tarif cukai produk tembakau terbukti secara signifikan positif dan pemantauan HTP untuk produk tembakau terbukti tidak signifikan mempengaruhi konsumsi rokok dengan harga yang tidak memenuhi ketentuan HTP.

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This study aims to investigate what factors are c that does not meet the regulations regarding the limits on Market Transaction Prices in 34 Provinces in Indonesia and analyze the impact that influences the monitoring of Tobacco Market Transaction Prices by the Directorate General of Customs and Excise. In addition, this study calculates the estimated proportion of cigarettes that do not comply with the minimum market transaction price rules by comparing the data on cigarettes consumed using SUSENAS with the Market Transaction Price rules. This study applies a fixed effect panel regression model to estimate the impact of the policy of monitoring the Tobacco Products Market Transaction Price on cigarette consumption that does not meet the HTP regulations in 2016-2019. The study found that the increase in tariffs on tobacco productsproved significantly positive and monitoring of HTP for tobacco products proved insignificant in influencing cigarette consumption at prices that did not meet the HTP regulations.

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"Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisa harga risiko nilai tukar pada pasar modal Indonesia tahun 2009 sampai 2013. Investor asing, selain menghadapi ketidakpastian atas stock return, juga menghadapi risiko nilai tukar. Dengan kecenderungan depresiasi nilai tukar IDR terhadap USD pada beberapa tahun belakangan ini, keuntungan yang diterima oleh investor akan tergerus oleh kerugian dari selisih nilai tukar. Hal ini akan berbeda apabila ditemukan bahwa nilai tukar sudah dihargai dalam stock return tersebut. Akan tetapi, penelitian menemukan bahwa stock return dari perusahaan manufaktur di Indonesia terpengaruh oleh risiko nilai tukar dan pengaruh tersebut ditemukan bervariasi terhadap waktu. Selain itu, juga ditemukan bahwa risiko nilai tukar belum dihargai dalam stock return. Dengan demikian, investor asing perlu memperhitungkan risiko nilai tukar ke dalam expected return dari pasar modal di Indonesia. Di samping itu, manajer dari perusahaan Manufaktur juga perlu mempertimbangkan alternatif strategi lindung nilai yang dapat diambil guna melindungi nilai perusahaan dari dampak risiko nilai tukar.

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The objective of this research is to conduct an analysis of exchange rate risk pricing in Indonesian Equity Market year 2009 to 2013. The foreign investors, aside from facing the uncertainties in the equity market return, are faced with currency risk. With the tendency of depreciation of IDR against USD in the past few years, the expected returns of the investors are more likely to be overridden by the loss caused by difference in the exchange rate. This will be a different matter if the currency risk is already priced in the stock returns. However, the research empirically found that this was not the case. The research found that the stock returns of Manufacturing firms in Indonesia are exposed to currency risk, and the risk is time-varying. However, the currency risk is found to be not priced. In this case, foreign investors need to consider the currency risk into the expected returns of stock market in Indonesia. Finally, the managers of Manufacturing Firms also need to consider alternatives hedging strategies due to the currency risk negative effects on the firms? value."

"Kontribusi Indonesia yang tidak signifikan terhadap konsumsi kayu dunia telah menjadi tantangan bagi Pemerintah Indonesia selama bertahun-tahun. Penebangan kayu liar adalah salah satu tantangan penting dan tidak hanya mengganggu aksesibilitas bahan baku kayu tetapi juga mengancam kredibilitas produk kayu Indonesia di pasar global. Menyikapi situasi tersebut, pemerintah memberlakukan peraturan legalitas kayu untuk memberantas perdagangan kayu ilegal sekaligus mendorong ekspor produk kayu Indonesia. Studi ini mengkaji dampak peraturan lingkungan hidup melalui penerapan Sistem Verifikasi Legalitas Kayu (SVLK) terhadap ekspor produk kayu Indonesia periode 2004 sampai 2018 dengan menggunakan analisis empiris. Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah terdapat hubungan negatif antara penerapan SVLK dengan permintaan pasar produk kayu Indonesia. Studi ini membagi estimasi empiris menjadi tiga produk utama yaitu kertas, pulp, dan kayu lapis. Estimasi empiris menggambarkan bahwa koefisien SVLK pada ekspor kertas dan kayu lapis adalah negatif dan signifikan. Namun SVLK tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ekspor pulp, meski tandanya juga negatif. Penelitian ini menemukan bahwa penerapan SVLK menurunkan volume ekspor kertas dan kayu lapis, masing-masing sekitar 19% dan 26%.

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Indonesias insignificant contribution to the worlds wood consumption has been a challenge for Government of Indonesia so many years. Illegal logging as one of important challenges was not only disrupted Indonesias accessibility of raw sources but also threatened its woods credibility in global market. Responding to this situation, the government therefore enforced timber legality regulation to fight wood illegal trade and at the same time to boost wood products export from Indonesia. This study investigates the impact of environmental regulation through the implementation of Sistem Verifikasi Legalitas Kayu (SVLK) towards Indonesias wood products export between 2004 and 2018 by using empirical analysis. The result of this study is that there is a negative correlation between the implementation of SVLK and the market demand of Indonesian wood products. This study divides the empirical estimation into three main products namely paper, pulp, and plywood. The empirical estimation illustrates that the coefficient of SVLK on paper and plywood exports are significantly negative. However, SVLK has no significant effect on pulp exports, even though the sign is also negative. It is found that the implementation of SVLK decreases the export volume of paper and plywood, about 19% and 26%, respectively."

"[ABSTRAKTesis ini membahas tentang risiko dunia dan risiko lokal dalammempengaruhi Pasar Saham Indonesia dengan menggunakan pendekatanInternational Capital Asset Pricing Model. Model yang digunakan adalahMultivariate GARCH dari De Santis & Gerard (1997) and J. Antell & M.Vaihekoski (2004). Tesis ini menunjukkan bahwa risiko global dan lokalmerupakan faktor penting dalam proses asset pricing imbal hasil Indonesia danpada saat risiko relatif stabil pada waktu pengamatan, hanya risiko lokal yangmemberikan kontribusi pada proses price discovery sementara risiko global tidak.Dilihat dari Pasar Indonesia yang terintegrasi secara parsial, imbal hasil PasarSaham Indonesia dengan menggunakan informasi internasional memperhitungkanrisiko global dan risiko lokal dengan komposisi informasi yang bersifat globallebih besar pengaruhnya dibandingkan dengan informasi yang bersifat lokal.

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ABSTRACTWe study on how global and local risks are priced in Indonesian StockMarket employing International Capital Asset Pricing Model. The model isestimated by using Multivariate GARCH of De Santis & Gerard (1997) and J.Antell & M. Vaihekoski (2004). This thesis shows that the global and local risksare important factors in Indonesian asset pricing and in a relatively stablecondition, only local risk that gives contribution to price discovery processmeanwhile the global risk doesn?t. Indonesian Market is partially integrated,accordingly the return of Indonesian Stock Market includes global and local riskin the pricing with the composition that global information has bigger impact toIndonesia than the local information., We study on how global and local risks are priced in Indonesian StockMarket employing International Capital Asset Pricing Model. The model isestimated by using Multivariate GARCH of De Santis & Gerard (1997) and J.Antell & M. Vaihekoski (2004). This thesis shows that the global and local risksare important factors in Indonesian asset pricing and in a relatively stablecondition, only local risk that gives contribution to price discovery processmeanwhile the global risk doesn’t. Indonesian Market is partially integrated,accordingly the return of Indonesian Stock Market includes global and local riskin the pricing with the composition that global information has bigger impact toIndonesia than the local information.]"

"Krisis ekonomi global yang dialami negara-negara maju telah menimbulkan dampak negatif bagi negara-negara di kawasan Asia Tenggara (ASEAN) yang notabennya mayoritas merupakan negara berkembang, dimana negara-negara ASEAN ini mengekspor sebagian besar komoditasnya ke negara maju. Diversifikasi ekspor dianggap menjadi strategi yang tepat untuk meningkatkan kinerja ekspor negara-negara ASEAN tersebut. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat pengaruh strategi diversifikasi pasar dan produk ekspor dalam meningkatkan kinerja ekspor negara-negara ASEAN tersebut selama perode 1991-2012 dengan menggunakan metode estimasi fixed effect model (FEM). Hasil penelitiannya menunjukkan bahwa diversifikasi pasar dan produk ekspor berpengaruh positif dan signifikan dalam meningkatkan kinerja ekspor. Variabel kontrol yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini seperti GDP, infrastruktur, populasi, dan dummy crisis juga ditemukan berpengaruh terhadap kinerja ekspor.

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The global economic crisis has resulted in negative effect in ASEAN countries due to the fact that some of their major export destinations are the ones who heavily affected by the crisis. Export diversification is often perceived as the proper strategy for the ASEAN countries to counter this situation and stabilize the export income. This research aims to identify the effect of product and market export diversification in improving the export performance of the ASEAN countries during the period 1991-2012. Using the fixed effect model (FEM) estimation, the results showed that both market and product diversification have positive and significant effect in improving ASEAN members' export performance. Other findings are that all supporting variables namely GDP, infrastructure, population and crisis dummy are also having positive and significant effect."

"ABSTRAKThe relationship between Indonesia and European Union has already bond since years ago. An economic cooperation, especially in trade, was the beginning of it relation that made European Union an important business partner for Indonesia. Chapter one explains how European Union has a significant position in trade with Indonesia, where the percentage is more or less of 13 percent of Indonesian total trade worldwide. Mapping should be done in order divide Indonesian commodities into two parts, which are competitive commodities and uncompetitive commodities in European Union's market. There are several leading Indonesian commodities in European Union's market that should be secured ,and increased. Thus Indonesia is able to be more responsive to the European Union about the alternatives to increase market share. Commodities in this thesis are divided into five (5) categories such as fuels, agricultures and raw materials, food, ores and metals, and manufactures. Indonesia hopes that the integration of European Union will increase the export value of Indonesia to EU market, although there are some barriers in trading activities. One of the barriers is EU import policy that had been imposing to Indonesia export commodity, either tariff policy or non-tariff policy.Apparently, there are many perspectives about those trade policies that can be seen from European Union's (as the importer countries) and Indonesia's (as the exporter country) point of view. Because of that reason we have to recognize and identify -several factors that set up those policies such as Economic factor and Social-Politic factors.Finally, after the mapping and formulating factors of export activities, Indonesia is able to describe threat and opportunities in exporting commodities to the European Union's market. As results, the writer would like to give some opinions about alternative efforts to increase Indonesian export to European Union."

"Penelitian ini menganalisis hubungan antara program restrukturisasi mesin industri Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil (TPT) dengan kinerja ekspor TPT nasional. Penelitian ini menggunakan data panel dengan 4 negara tujuan ekspor yaitu Amerika Serikat, Jepang, Jerman, dan Inggris serta periode tahun 2004-2012 dan dengan menggunakan analisa regresi estimasi EGLS weighting pada Cross-section SUR.Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa program restrukturisasi industri tekstil berpengaruh signifikan terhadap nilai ekspor TPT dan Variabel PDB negara tujuan ekspor secara signifikan berpengaruh positif terhadap nilai ekspor TPT nasional.

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This study analyze the relationship between the restructuring program of textile industrial machinery and performance the national textile exports. This study using panel data with four export destinations which are the United States, Japan, Germany, and England in the period from 2004 to 2012 and using weighting EGLS Cross-section SUR regression analysis to estimate.The results show that textile industry restructuring program significantly influence the value of textile exports and GDP of export destinations is significantly has positive effect on the value of national textile exports."