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""Modern Financial Macroeconomics takes a non-technical approach in examining the role that financial markets and institutions play in shaping outcomes in the modern macro economy."--BOOK JACKET."

"Penelitian ini menguji dampak dari krisis finansial global pada tahun 2008 dan pandemi Covid-19 terhadap utang dan keberlanjutan fiskal di 11 negara. Sampel dari 11 negara pilihan diantaranya adalah negara dengan delta debt to gdp ratio tertinggi di dunia seperti Angola , Armenia , Yunani , Prancis , dan Spanyol. Pengujian menggunakan dua pendekatan , dimana untuk mengetahui dampak krisis finansial dan pandemi menggunakan pendekatan regresi dengan metode Pool Least Square, sedangkan untuk mengetahui dampak krisis finansial dan pandemi terhadap keberlanjutan fiskal diuji dengan menggunakan pendekatan Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive (PSVAR). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa krisis finansial dan pandemi berpengaruh pada peningkatan utang. Untuk perbandingan dampak , berdasarkan koefisien regresi menunjukkan bahwa pandemi memiliki dampak yang lebih besar dalam peningkatan utang dibandingkan krisis finansial. Sedangkan terkait dengan keberlanjutan fiskal , menunjukkan bahwa dengan adanya krisis finansial dan pandemi menunjukkan bahwa shock yang terjadi menunjukkan pemudaran efeknya mulai dari lag ke-9 sehingga penggunaan fiskal sebagai media untuk pemulihan ekonomi disarankan hanya dalam jangka pendek saja. Apabila fiskal untuk pemulihan ekonomi jangka panjang , akan mengurangi sustainabilitas fiskal.

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This study examines the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008 and the Covid-19 pandemic on debt and fiscal sustainability in 11 countries. Samples from 11 selected countries include countries with the highest delta debt to gdp ratios in the world such as Angola, Armenia, Greece, France, and Spain. The test uses two approaches, where to find out the impact of the financial crisis and pandemic using a regression approach with the Pool Least Square method, while to determine the impact of the financial crisis and pandemic on fiscal sustainability, it is tested using the Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive (PSVAR) approach. The results showed that the financial crisis and pandemic had an effect on increasing debt. For the comparison of impacts, based on the regression coefficients, it shows that the pandemic has a greater impact on increasing debt than the financial crisis. While related to fiscal sustainability, it shows that the financial crisis and pandemic indicate that the shock that occurs shows the fading of its effects starting from the 9th lag so that the use of fiscal as a medium for economic recovery is recommended only in the short term. If fiscal is for long-term economic recovery, it will reduce fiscal sustainability."

"This book studies unemployment and inflation in economic crises, first considering the scenario of a demand shock in Europe. In that case, monetary and fiscal interaction would cause widespread oscillations in European unemployment and European inflation. And what is more, there would be equally far-reaching fluctuations in the European money supply and European government purchases. These monetary and fiscal interactions would have no effects on the American economy. Second, it examines the scenario of a supply shock in Europe, in which monetary and fiscal interactions would have no effects on European unemployment or European inflation, there would also be an explosion of European government purchases and an implosion of the European money supply. Monetary and fiscal interactions would produce uniform oscillations in American unemployment and American inflation. Lastly, also see an implosion of both the American money supply and American government purchases."

"This dissertation in the format of a single case, qualitative study, investigates how the listed entities of one prominent Indonesian business group, survived through two economic and political turbulent environmental shocks, during 1997 to 1999 Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) and 2007 to 2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), analysing 7 (seven) listed affiliates of the group. The research attempts to deductively review, test and extend several existing theories on business group: the Principal-Principal Theory, Dynamic Capabilities Theory, Institution Based View, to see whether how far do they apply or relate to the group’s survival in two economic crises of AFC and GFC.The group survived the two crises using two extremely contrasting strategies behaving as paragons or red barons-like in the AFC (being very prudent, nursing its affiliates back to healthy financial status and gaining improved reputational capital); whilst subsequently transforming itself into parasites or robber barons-like in the GFC (taking highly aggressive debt based growth strategy, incurring significant debt burden to the point of technical bankruptcy, as well as losing market trust) (Khanna & Yafeh, 2007; Perotti & Stanislav, 2001). The contribution of this dissertation to the advancement of strategic management are: (1) a new extension of the theories by combining several theories; (2) the practical implementation of the findings of this research in the management of a portfolio of firms; (3) the first time application of such integrated model in Indonesia, and (4) the opportunity to generalize the application of the extension in theories, leading to a possible new concept to be called the “Quasi Governance”, and further practical implications, the result of which would provide meaningful contribution to the improvement in the quality of corporate strategy development in conglomerate and non-conglomerate holding companies.

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Disertasi dalam format studi kasus tunggal dan kualitatif ini menyelidiki bagaimana perusahaan-perusahaan terdaftar dari salah satu Konglomerat terkemuka di Indonesia, bertahan melalui dua guncangan lingkungan ekonomi dan politik yang bergejolak, selama Krisis Keuangan Asia (Asian Financial Crisis - AFC) 1997 hingga 1999 dan Krisis Keuangan Global (Global Financial Crisis – GFC) 2007 hingga 2009, menganalisa 7 (tujuh) afiliasi grup yang terdaftar di bursa efek Indonesia. Penelitian ini mencoba mengkaji secara deduktif, menguji dan memperluas beberapa teori yang ada mengenai Konglomerat: Teori Prinsipal-Prinsipal, Teori Kapabilitas Dinamis, Pandangan Berbasis Institusi, untuk melihat sejauh mana teori tersebut dapat diterapkan atau berhubungan dengan keberlangsungan Konglomerat dalam dua krisis ekonomi yang terjadi di masa AFC dan GFC.

Konglomerat ini berhasil bertahan melalui kedua krisis tersebut dengan menggunakan dua strategi yang sangat kontras, yaitu berperilaku seperti teladan atau Red Baron di AFC (sangat berhati-hati, menjaga afiliasinya kembali ke status keuangan yang sehat dan mendapatkan modal reputasi yang lebih baik); dan kemudian berubah menjadi parasit atau seperti Robber Baron di GFC (mengambil strategi pertumbuhan berbasis utang yang sangat agresif, menimbulkan beban utang yang signifikan hingga ke titik kebangkrutan teknis, serta kehilangan kepercayaan pasar) (Khanna & Yafeh, 2007; Perotti & Stanislav, 2001).

Kontribusi disertasi ini terhadap kemajuan manajemen strategis adalah: (1) perluasan teori baru dengan menggabungkan beberapa teori; (2) implementasi praktis dari temuan penelitian ini dalam pengelolaan portofolio perusahaan; (3) penerapan model terintegrasi yang pertama kali di Indonesia, dan (4) peluang untuk menggeneralisasi penerapan perluasan teori, yang mengarah pada kemungkinan konsep baru yang disebut Tata Kelola Kuasi (“Quasi Governance”), dan implikasi praktis lebih lanjut yang hasilnya akan memberikan kontribusi berarti terhadap peningkatan kualitas pengembangan strategi korporasi pada perusahaan induk konglomerat dan non konglomerat."