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"Pengaruh suku bunga bank sentral dalam upaya mengendalikan laju inflasi merupakan hal yang secara teoritis terbukti namun setelah krisis ekonomi tahun 2008 suku bunga penjamin atau LPS mulai berperan dalam perekonomian Indonesia sehingga memungkinkan terjadinya dualisme dalam perekonomian Dalam penelitian ini analisis dilakukan pada negara Indonesia periode 2005 kuartal 4 sampai 2014 kuartal 3 Dengan menggunakan metode Vector Error Correction Model ditemukan bahwa meski pengaruh suku bunga LPS dalam perekonomian tidak sebesar suku bunga Bank Indonesia Selain itu ditemukan juga bahwa adanya shock pada suku bunga Bank Indonesia dan suku bunga LPS mengakibatkan output perekonomian mengalami penurunan dan inflasi mengalami kenaikan namun terjadi perbedaan periode respon Selain itu ditemukan juga bahwa suku bunga Bank Indonesia masih merupakan suku bunga acuan Disisi lain suku bunga LPS yang merupakan cerminan suku bunga perbankan juga masih menggunakan suku bunga Bank Indonesia sebagai acuanya Kata Kunci Shock kebijakan moneter Suku bunga LPS Suku bunga Bank Indonesia.

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In theory the effect of central bank rate is proven in an attempt to control the inflation rate but after 2008 economic crisis the LPS rate in Indonesia so there is possibility for dualism In this study the analysis was conducted in Indonesia for period 2005 quarter 4 to 2014 quarter 3 By using Vector Error Correction Model this study found that the effect of deposit insurance in the economic was weaker than Bank of Indonesia interest rate In addition this study find that shock in Bank Indonesia interest rate and LPS rate will result decrease in output and increase in inflation but duration of responses will be the difference After that this study find that in Indonesia the central bank rate is still the primary rate In the other side the deposit insurance rate which reflect the demand of banking sector interest still use Bank Indonesia rate as key interest rate Key Word Monetary policy shock Central Bank Interest rate Deposit Insurance Rate."

"Transmisi kebijakan moneter dapat dilakukan melalui beberapa saluran, dimana salah satunya adalah melalui saluran suku bunga. Studi ini, mengukur besaran perubahan suku bunga perbankan terhadap perubahan suku bunga acuan, dengan melihat momentum interest rate pass through dengan pengukuran menggunakan metode Error ndash; correction model. Tingkat suku bunga deposito tenor 6 bulan pada jangka panjang memiliki pass through tidak sempurna dengan nilai koefisien 0.48 , dan deposito 24 bulan pada jangka panjang memiliki pass through terlebihi dengan nilai koefisien 1.80. Sedangkan, tingkat suku bunga kredit modal kerja dan investasi memiliki besaran pass through tidak sempurna dengan masing ndash; masing nilai koefisien sebesar 0.69 dan 0.23.

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Transmission of monetary policy have several channels, and one of them is through interest rate channel. This study, attempt to measure the change of bank rsquo s interest rate toward the change in central bank rsquo s policy rate, by seeing the momentum of interest rate pass through using error ndash correction model. Deposit rate with 6 months period exhibit long run incomplete pass through with a coefficient of 0.48, and deposit with 24 months period exhibit long run overcomplete pass through with a coefficient of 1.80. As for working capital and investment loan, have incomplete pass through with each coefficient respective of 0.69 and 0.23."

"Salah satu indikasi dari adanya globalisasi perdagangan dan capital flow adalah pertumbuhan cadangan devisa yang cepat dan stockpiling. Peningkatan tersebut memiliki keuntungan dan kerugian. Di satu sisi, peningkatan devisa dapat dijadikan cushion saat terjadinya shock. Di sisi lain, peningkatan cadangan devisa berarti peningkatan jumlah uang beredar dan dapat memicu inflasi. Bank Indonesia dapat mencegah efek negatif peningkatan cadangan devisa dengan menerapkan kebijakan sterilisasi. Dengan menggunakan metode two stage least square, ditemukan bahwa Bank Indonesia melakukan kebijakan sterilisasi namun tidak secara penuh. Hal ini disebabkan oleh kondisi capital mobility Indonesia yang high degree capital mobility.

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One indication of the globalization of trade and capital flows is the rapid and stockpiling growth of foreign exchange reserves. This growth has advantages and disadvantages. Increase in foreign exchange can be used as a cushion when there is shock. On the other hand, increase in foreign exchange reserves means an increase in the money supply and can lead to inflation. Bank Indonesia may prevent the negative effects of the increase in foreign reserves by applying sterilization policy. Using two stage least squares method, it was found that Bank Indonesia applied sterilization policy, but not fully. This is caused by the capital mobility condition of Indonesian which is high degree of capital mobility."

"Dalam upaya memeriksa efektivitas transmisi kebijakan moneter, penelitian ini memeriksa interest rate pass-through di Indonesia dengan mempertimbangkan adanya perubahan suku bunga kebijakan dan pandemi COVID-19. Data suku bunga kebijakan, suku bunga deposito dan suku bunga kredit diambil secara bulanan dari April 2012-Desember 2022. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) digunakan untuk mengukur interest rate pass-through dan Mean Adjusted Lag (MAL) digunakan mengukur kecepatan pass-through. Hasil menemukan dengan penetepan suku bunga kebijakan baru belum memberikan pengaruh pada suku bunga deposito dan kredit dalam analisis jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Kebijakan moneter membutuhkan waktu yang lebih lama untuk memberikan pengaruhnya pada suku bunga perbankan. Pandemi COVID-19 semakin melemahkan transmisi kebijakan moneter memberikan pengaruh pada suku bunga kredit.

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To examine the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission, this study examines interest rate pass-through in Indonesia by considering changes in policy rates and the COVID-19 pandemic. Data on policy rates, deposit rates and lending rates are taken monthly from April 2012-December 2022. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is used to measure interest rate pass-through and Mean Adjusted Lag (MAL) is used to measure the speed of pass-through. The results found that the new policy rates have not yet influenced deposit and lending rates in the long-run and short-run analysis. Monetary policy takes a longer time to affect bank interest rates. The COVID-19 pandemic has further weakened the transmission of monetary policy influence on lending rates."

"Penyusunan Tesis bertujuan untuk membandingkan jalur yang paling baik antara jalur Traditional Interest Rate Channel dan Exchange Rate Channel dalam mempengaruhi GDP dan inflasi. Model ekonometrika yang digunakan adalah analisis dinamis time series VAR in difference, yaitu impulse response dengan menggunakan data dari Bank Indonesia dan Biro Pusat Statistik sejak 1990 s.d. 2009 secara triwulanan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan suku bunga SBI 1 bulan memiliki peran penting dan dapat dijadikan sebagai suku bunga rujukan/acuan bagi pelaku ekonomi. Jalur suku bunga dan nilai tukar bekerja dengan baik sesuai dengan teori. Secara keseluruhan jalur suku bunga bekerja lebih baik dibandingkan dengan nilai tukar. Meskipun demikian, peran jalur nilai tukar memiliki pengaruh besar terhadap sasaran akhir terutama inflasi sehingga tetap perlu mendapat perhatian otoritas moneter.

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This thesis aims to see which one is better be used as monetary transmission between traditional interest rate channel and exchange rate channel to influence the GDP and inflation. Econometric model used is the time series dynamics analysis of VAR in difference, that is impulse response. The research uses secondary data sourced from Bank Indonesia and Biro Pusat Statistik since 1990 to 2009 quarterly. The thesis finds that SBI rate of 1 month has an important role and it can be used as reference rate by economic agent. Both of traditional interest rate channel and exchange rate channel have worked as theory. Overall, the interest rate channel works better than exchange rate channel in influencing the GDP and inflation. Meanwhile, the role of exchange rate channel have a big impact to the inflation that the monetary authority should pay attention to the channel."

"ABSTRAKPenelitian sebelumnya yang membahas mengenai permasalahan sejenis masih sangat terbatas dan berfokus pada pengaruh faktor makroekonomi dan faktor spesifik bank dibandingkan siklus bisnis. Penelitian ini meneliti pengaruh siklus bisnis terhadap profitabilitas bank dengan studi kasus Indonesia. Penelitian ini juga meneliti pengaruh siklus bisnis terhadap masing-masing determinan profitabilitas yaitu other income, net provisions and costs, dan net interest income. Data yang digunakan adalah data bank umum konvensional selama periode 2005-2011. Dengan menggunakan Fixed Effect Model with AR(1) Disturbances, didapat hasil bahwa siklus bisnis (direpresentasikan dengan indikator-indikator makroekonomi) memiliki hubungan signifikan dengan profitabilitas bank. Begitu pula hubungannya dengan masing-masing determinan profitabilitas bank. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa profitabilitas bersifat prosiklikal terhadap siklus bisnis.

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ABSTRACTThe previous researches about this kind of problem are still in limited amount and focusing on the impact of macro-specific and bank-specific rather than business cycle. This research examines the impact of business cycle on bank profitability with Indonesia as the case study. This research also examines the impact on each determinants of bank profitability. Data used here are conventional bank data within period 2005-2011. Using Fixed Effect Model with AR(1) Disturbances, business cycle has significant impact on banks proftability. So does on each determinants of bank profitability. It shows that bank profitability are procyclical to business cycle."

"Studi pada literatur keuangan untuk menguji interest rate pass through perubahan suku bunga kebijakan terhadap perubahan suku bunga perbankan yang menunjukkan efektivitas kebijakan telah mendapat perhatian yang besar. Tujuan dari studi ini adalah mengukur derajat kesempurnaan dan derajat kecepatan waktu perubahan suku bunga perbankan terhadap perubahan suku bunga BI-7 Day Reverse Repo (BI7DRR) sejak penerapan BI7DRR tanggal 19 Agustus 2016. Model dalam studi ini menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) untuk mengestimasi koefisien pass-through jangka pendek, koefisien pass-through jangka panjang, dan koefisien error correction term. Selanjutnya ketiga koefisien tersebut dihitung ke dalam persamaan Mean Adjusted Lag(MAL). Pass-through jangka pendek pada suku bunga deposito dan kredit adalah tidak sempurna dan tidak signifikan. Pass-through jangka panjang pada suku bunga modal kerja adalah tidak sempurna dan tidak signifikan. Pass-through jangka panjang pada suku bunga modal kerja adalah tidak sempurna dan signifikan dengan koefisien sebesar 0,369, sedangkan suku bunga kredit konsumsi adalah sempurna dan signifikan dengan koefisien 1,8401. Kecepatan waktu perubahan suku bunga deposito 3 dan 6 bulan terhadap perubahan suku bunga kebijakan adalah 4 bulan, sedangkan suku bunga deposito 12 bulan adalah 18 sampai 29 bulan. Sementara kecepatan waktu perubahan suku bunga kredit modal kerja dan konsumsi terhadap suku bunga kebijakan masing-masing adalah sebesar 12 dan 61 bulan.

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Several studies in finance literature have tested interest rate pass-through on changes in policy rates that are responded to by changes in banking interest rates indicating the effectiveness of transmission of policies have received great attention. This study attempts to measure the degree of completeness and the degree of time speed of adjustment of the banking interest rate changes against the BI-7 Day Reverse Repo interest rate changes (BI7DRR) since the implementation of BI7DRR at August 19, 2016. This study contains Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to measure short-term pass-through coefficient, long-term pass-through coefficient, and error correction term coefficient. Then the three coefficients are calculated into the Mean Adjusted Lag (MAL) equation. The short-term pass-through on deposit interest rates and loan rates are imperfect and insignificant. The long-term pass-through for working capital interest rate is imperfect and significant with a coefficient of 0.369, while the interest rate of credit consumption is perfect and significant with a coefficient of 1.8401. The degree of time speed of adjustment for deposit rate of 3 and 6 months whenever policy rate drifted away are 4 months, while a 12-month deposit interest rate is 18 to 29 months. While the degree of time speed of adjustment for working capital credit and consumption interest rate whenever policy rate drifted away respectively are 12 and 61 months."

"In the year 2002, Y. V Reddy introduced a new thought in monetary economics theory, especially about transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Reddy classified the channeIs of transmission mechanism into three types, there are quantum channel, interest rate channel, and asset price channel. Quantum channel consists of two channels, there are money channel and credit channel. This research will examine the differences between money channel and credit channeI, the factors which affect volume of money supply (M2) and credit, the stability of quantum channel, and also effectiveness of quantum channel, especially related on its role to push the economic growth. This research uses a monthly data from the year 1993 until 2005. The analysis of this research divided into three parts of period, pre-crisis period (1993-1996), crisis period (19972OO1), and post-crisis period (2002-2005). In the precrisis period, credit channel more stable in transmission mechanism of monetary policy and more effective to push the economic growth. In the crisis, quantum channel did not effective to push economic growth. In the post-crisis period quantum channel also did not effective to push the economic growth."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan analisis mengenai mekanisme transmisi kebijakan moneter di Indonesia khususnya dengan jalur harga aset baik dari sisi konvensional maupun syariah, karena saat ini Indonesia menggunakan sistem finansial ganda. Lebih lanjut lagi dari kedua sistem tersebut akan dibandingkan untuk diukur tingkat efektifitas dalam mengendalikan tingkat inflasi. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) yang mana menggunakan variabel seperti Indeks Harga Konsumsi (IHK), Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (SBI), saluran kredit bank umum (Loan), Pasar Uang Antar Bank (PUAB), Jumlah Uang Beredar dalam arti luas (M2), Surat Berharga Negara (SBN) dan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dari sisi konvensional. Lalu dari sisi syariah terdapat IHK, Sertifikat Bank Indonesia Syariah (SBIS), saluran kredit bank umum syariah (FINC), Pasar Uang Antar Bank Syariah (PUAS), M2, repo Sertifikat Berharga Syariah Negara (SBSN) dan Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). Dimana hasil penelitian menunjukan jika IHSG cukup signifikan untuk mempengaruhi IHK. Sedangkan JII, SBN dan SBSN tidak signifikan dalam mempengaruhi IHK.

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This research aims to conduct analysis on the mechanism of transmission of monetary policy in Indonesia, especially with the price path of assets both from the conventional and sharia, because currently Indonesia uses a dual financial system. Moreover, the two systems will be compared to measured the level of effectiveness in controlling the inflation rate. The method used in this research is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) which uses variables such as the consumption price Index (CPI), the Bank Indonesia certificate (SBI), the credit line of the Commercial Bank (Loan), the Interbank money Market (PUAB), the Money supply in the broad (M2), state Securities (SBN) and composite stock price Index (IDX) from the conventional side. Then from the sharia side, there are CPI, Bank Indonesia Sharia certificate (SBIS), Sharia Bank financing (FINC), Sharia interbank money Market (PUAS), M2, National Sharia certificate (SBSN) and Jakarta Islamic Index (JII). The result is IHSG is significant to influence the IHK. On the other hand JII, SBN and SBSN are not significant to influence IHK."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh dan lamanya waktu pengaruh kebijakan suku bunga terhadap kredit perbankan di Indonesia. Penelitian dengan metode Distribusi Lag Poissons menggunakan data bulanan yang terdiri dari BI rate sebagai pendekatan kebijakan suku bunga Bank Indonesia, kredit konsumsi, kredit produktif yang meliputi kredit modal kerja dan kredit investasi, output perekonomian dan inflasi untuk periode bulan Juli 2005 sampai dengan Desember 2013 atau setelah penerapan Inflation Targeting Framework oleh Bank Indonesia. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan BI rate secara signifikan berpengaruh negatif terhadap kredit perbankan dengan lamanya waktu pengaruh 7 bulan. Sedangkan inflasi dan output perekonomian secara signifikan berpengaruh positif dengan lag tertentu. Pengaruh BI rate terhadap kedua jenis kredit yaitu konsumsi dan produktif juga negatif meski terdapat perbedaan lamanya waktu pengaruh yang mengindikasikan adanya perbedaan respon.

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This study analyzes the effect and lag optimum of interest rate policy by central bank in Indonesia on banking loan. It applies Poissons Lag Distibution using monthly data consist of BI rate as a interest rate policy approach, consumer loan, productive loan which includes working capital and investment, output and inflation for the the period of July 2005 to December 2013, after the implementation of Inflation Targeting Framework by Bank Indonesia. The results show that BI rate have significantly negative impact on bank loans with lag 7 month, while inflation and economic output variables are significantly positive effect with certain lags. The effect of BI rate on both types of bank loans are consumer and productive loan are also negative effect, despite their effect on the differences lags that indicate a difference in responses."