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"Studi ini mencoba menginvestigasi secara empiris pandangan populer yang berkembang di pasar bahwa hasil pemilihan umum nasional memiliki pengaruh terhadap volatilitas pasar saham, dengan menggunakan sampel internasional dari 17 negara yang merupakan anggota G-20. Dengan menggunakan event-study method dan determinants of election surprise regressions, temuan empiris membuktikan bahwa pemilihan umum nasional terasosiasi dengan volatilitas pasar saham yang meningkat. Volatilitas pasar saham bahkan tetap meningkat hingga beberapa hari setelah hari pemilihan umum nasional ketika dibandingkan dengan benchmark, GARCH (1,1). Lebih lanjut, temuan empiris dari studi ini menunjukkan bahwa pasar saham terasosiasi dengan volatilitas yang lebih tinggi pada saat ketika hasil pemilihan umum berujung pada selisih kemenangan yang sempit, ketika terjadi perubahan orientasi politik untuk pemerintah yang terpilih, dan ketika pemerintah yang terpilih dan koalisinya tidak kuasa untuk memiliki kursi mayoritas di parlemen.

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Motivated by popular believes and motivating evidences citing the crucial influence of election outcome to the stock market, this study aims to weigh in on the topic by investigating a sample of 17 countries from G-20 country members to test whether national elections impacting stock market volatility. By utilizing event-study method and determinants of election surprise regression, this study finds that national election is associated with increased volatility in the stock market. The prolonged reaction of higher volatility as compared to benchmark, GARCH (1,1), also prevails until several days after the election. Furthermore, the findings of this study also ssuggest that election has the explanatory power to induce higher volatility, especially in the cases when elections are resulting in narrow margin of victory, when there is a shift of political orientation, and when government and its coalition are unable to secure majority seats in the congress or parliament. "

"Penelitian ini menginvestigasi pengaruh dari pandemi Covid-19 terhadap volatilitas pasar saham di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan model GARCH untuk mengestimasi volatilitas return mingguan IHSG. Proxy variabel Covid-19 terdiri dari fear sentiment yang dikonstruksi berdasarkan intensitas pencarian kata kunci terkait Covid-19 di internet, jumlah kasus Covid-19 Indonesia, dan jumlah kasus Covid-19 global. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa fear sentiment tidak berpengaruh signfikan terhadap volatilitas pasar saham di Indonesia. Hasil yang sama juga ditemukan dalam konteks jumlah kasus Covid-19 di Indonesia. Namun jumlah kasus Covid-19 global berpengaruh signifikan terhadap volatilitas pasar saham di Indonesia. Jumlah kasus Covid-19 global yang tetap berpengaruh menunjukan bahwa proxy Covid-19 ini tetap berdampak signfikan terhadap volatilitas pasar saham di Indonesia meskipun perekonomian sudah lebih stabil dan normal secara keseluruhan selama rentang penelitian. Oleh karena itu, pihak-pihak yang ditujukan dalam penelitian perlu untuk lebih memantau aspek yang paling dipengaruhi oleh proxy tersebut yaitu perdagangan komoditi internasional sebagai salah satu indikator utama perekonomian Indonesia yang menentukan pergerakan return saham.

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This study investigates the impact of Covid-19 on the stock market volatility in Indonesia. This research used GARCH model to estimate weekly volatility of IHSG. Proxies of Covid-19 consist of fear sentiment that can be measured by the search intensity of keywords that related to Covid-19 on the internet, sum of Indonesia Covid-19 cases, and sum of global Covid-19 cases. Findings of this research shows that fear sentiment doesn’t significantly affect stock market volatility in Indonesia. Same result can be found with sum of Indonesia Covid-19 cases. But on the other hand, sum of global Covid-19 cases significantly affects stock market volatility in Indonesia. Sum of global Covid-19 cases that still significant shows that this Covid-19 proxy still significantly affects stock market volatility in Indonesia even though economy as a whole is more stable and normal during research period. Therefore parties that are addressed in this research should monitor the aspect that is most affected by that proxy specifically international commodity trading as one of main indicator of Indonesia’s economy that determines the movement of stock return.

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"Pasar keuangan, baik di pasar uang maupun pasar saham, mendapat sorotan yang meningkat setelah GFC (Krisis Keuangan Global) 2007. Meski belum tentu menjadi sumber atau pemicu utama KKG, pasar saham memainkan peran utama dalam memperburuk krisis dan menyebarkan krisis lebih luas lagi. Beberapa penelitian telah beralih ke variabel makroekonomi dalam menjelaskan volatilitas dan harga pasar saham. Penelitian ini menggunakan ARDL untuk variabel makroekonomi yang berpengaruh terhadap volatilitas pasar saham, dan BEKK-GARCH untuk volatilitas spillover. Jangka waktunya adalah 2009-2019. Inflasi, suku bunga, VIX, CCI berpengaruh positif terhadap volatilitas pasar saham, sedangkan imbal hasil obligasi jangka panjang berpengaruh negatif terhadap volatilitas pasar saham. Koefisien dan standar deviasi meninggalkan ruang untuk interpretasi ke nilai sebenarnya. Komposit pasar saham Indonesia memiliki korelasi dan kovarians nilai pasar yang kuat dengan Thailand dan Filipina, dan volatilitas spill-over yang kuat dengan Singapura dan Filipina.

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Financial markets, both in the money market and the stock market, received increased attention after the GFC (Global Financial Crisis) 2007. While not necessarily main source or trigger of the GFC, the market played a major role in the crisis and spread the crisis even more. Several studies have turned to macroeconomic variables in explaining volatility and stock market prices. This study uses ARDL for macroeconomic variables that affect stock market volatility, and BEKK-GARCH for spillover volatility. The term is 2009-2019. Inflation, interest rates, VIX, CCI have a positive effect on stock market volatility, while long-term bond yields have a negative effect on stock market volatility. The coefficients and standard deviations leave room for interpretations of their true values. The Indonesian stock market composite has strong market correlation and covariance values with Thailand and the Philippines, and strong spill-over volatility with Singapore and the Philippines."

"Penelitian ini berutujuan untuk menganalisa efek dari pandemic COVID-19 yang terjadi di Indonesia terhadap volatilitas pasar saham di Indonesia, dengan menggunakan beberapa variabel yaitu, exchange rate USD/IDR, harga emas, dan harga minyak. Metode yang digunakan untuk pengolahan data yaitu Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) dengan alat yang digunakan adalah EVIEWS.

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This research aims to analyze the effect of COVID-19 pandemic that happens globally towards stock market volatility in Indonesia. Several variabels that are used in this research are, USD/IDR exchange rate, price of gold, and price of oil. The method that this research use is Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) which processed by EVIEWS. "

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis hubungan antara volatilitas pasar saham, Foreign Portfolio Investment, suku bunga, nilai tukar, dan Indeks Produksi Industri pada saham syariah sektor energi di Indonesia tahun 2011-2023. Penelitian ini menggunakan data dengan frekuensi bulanan sejak tahun 2011. Penelitian ini menggunakan Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) dengan melibatkan fenomena structural breaks yang terjadi pada September 2013 dan fenomena tersebut digunakan sebagai variabel dummy. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya kointegrasi atau hubungan jangka panjang pada setiap variabel yang diuji sebagai variabel dependen. Hasil uji jangka panjang menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas pada saham syariah sektor energi dipengaruhi secara positif oleh aktivitas Foreign Portfolio Investment. Selain itu, nilai tukar secara positif mempengaruhi Indeks Produksi Industri. Sedangkan dalam jangka pendek, aktivitas Foreign Portfolio Investment dipengaruhi secara negatif oleh nilai Foreign Portfolio Investment periode sebelumnya. Di sisi lain, volatilitas pasar saham secara positif mempengaruhi Foreign Portfolio Investment. Selain itu, Indeks Produksi Industri dipengaruhi secara positif oleh nilai Indeks Produksi Industri selama 3 bulan sebelumnya, nilai tukar, aktivitas Foreign Portfolio Investment, serta volatilitas pasar saham hingga 1 bulan sebelumnya.

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This research aims to analyze the relationship between stock market volatility, Foreign Portfolio Investment, interest rates, exchange rates, and the Industrial Production Index on sharia stocks in the energy sector in Indonesia in 2011-2023. This research uses data with a monthly frequency since 2011 as the initial year when the Indeks Saham Syariah Indonesia (ISSI) was launched. This research uses Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) involving the structural breaks phenomenon that occurred in September 2013 and this phenomenon is used as a dummy variable. The research results show that there is cointegration or long-term relationship in each variable tested as the dependent variable. Long-term test results show that volatility in sharia stock in the energy sector is positively influenced by Foreign Portfolio Investment activity. In addition, exchange rate positively influences the Industrial Production Index. Meanwhile, in the short term, Foreign Portfolio Investment activity is negatively influenced by the value of Foreign Portfolio Investment in the previous period. On the other hand, stock market volatility positively affects Foreign Portfolio Investment. In addition, the Industrial Production Index is positively influenced by the value of the Industrial Production Index for the previous 3 months, exchange rates, Foreign Portfolio Investment activity, and stock market volatility for the previous 1 month."

"Skripsi ini membahas mengenai dampak konvergensi PSAK-IFRS terhadap pasar modal di Indonesia yang dilihat dari 3 hal, yaitu efisiensi pasar (distribution dan information effect), peran old news dalam mempengaruhi perubahan harga (information effect) dan volatilitas imbal hasil (expertise acquisition effect). Penelitian ini adalah penelitian kuantitatif dengan cara membandingkan random walk dari imbal hasil dan variansi imbal hasil pada pre- konvergensi PSAK-IFRS (2007) dan post- konvergensi PSAK-IFRS (2012). Hasil penelitian ini membuktikan bahwa pasar cenderung lebih efisien dan stabil dengan menurunnya volatilitas setelah konvergensi PSAK-IFRS. Namun peran old news dalam mempengaruhi perubahan harga saham tidak menurun walaupun IFRS telah diadopsi.

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This study examines the impact of PSAK-IFRS convergence on market efficiency (distribution and information effect), the role of old news in determining price changes (information effect), and stock volatility in Indonesia capital market. This research uses quantitative methodology to compare the random walk of stock return and return variance before (2007) and after (2012) PSAK-IFRS convergence. The conclusion of this study shows that PSAK-IFRS convergence enhances market efficiency and contributes to market stability, but finds no evidence that IFRS adoption decreases the role of old news in determining price changes."

"Penelitian menginvestigasi herding di enam negara Asia (Indonesia, Singapura, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, India) selama periode pra, COVID-19, dan pasca COVID-19 pada 2 Januari 2019 hingga 30 September 2023 dengan Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation (CSAD), regresi polinomial. Dampak herding terhadap volatilitas model GARCH (1,1) dan asimetri selama pasar bearish atau bullish dengan variable dummy juga diteliti. Hasilnya herding ditemukan di Indonesia, China, Taiwan, dan Singapura dan cenderung menguat ketika COVID-19 dan post COVID-19. Herding juga terbukti berpengaruh terhadap volatilitas dan asimetri atau lebih kuat ketika pasar sedang bearish. Hasil diharapkan bisa digunakan investor menerapkan strategi herding dan pemerintah mengantisipasi bubble burst

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A study examined herding behavior in six Asian countries (Indonesia, Singapore, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, India) from January 2, 2019, to September 30, 2023, using Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation and polynomial regression. It analyzed herding's impact on GARCH (1,1) model volatility and asymmetry during bearish or bullish markets, with dummy variables. Herding was identified in Indonesia, China, Taiwan, and Singapore, strengthening amid COVID-19 and post-COVID-19. It notably affected volatility and asymmetry, especially in bearish markets. Findings offer insights for investors implementing herding strategies, aiding governments in proactively addressing potential bubble bursts."

"[Dalam pasar keuangan, mendapatkan suatu abnormal return merupakan suatu halyang diinginkan oleh semua investor baik itu investor skala besar, skala kecil, trader,maupun oleh perusahaan efek dalam hal ini broker. Berbagai macam teknik dalammelakukan suatu transaksi dilakukan oleh para investor, untuk mendapatkanabnormal return, mulai dengan melakukan suatu riset untuk mendapatkan intrinsicvalue dari sebuah perusahaan sampai dengan melakukan suatu tindak kejahatandalam pasar keuangan. Tindak kejahatan yang terjadi dalam pasar keuangan dapatbermacam-macam bentuknya mulai dari penipuan dalam bertransaksi sampai denganmanipulasi pasar. Dalam hal menanggulangi kerugian yang mungkin didapatkan olehmasing-masing pelaku keuangan, para otoritas dalam negeri membuat bermacammacamregulasi. Namun dalam hal ini, tindakan manipulasi pasar merupakantindakan kejahatan yang sangat sulit untuk dibuktikan, seperti yang telahdiungkapkan oleh Jarrow (1992). Tesis ini mengukur tingkat volatilitas dan likuiditassebagai proksi untuk indikasi manipulasi pasar dalam bursa saham Indonesia. Dalammeneliti manipulasi pasar, volatilitas dan likuiditas dijadikan sebuah acuan yangdapat menggambarkan perilaku dari investor untuk menipu investor lainnya dalammendapatkan abnormal return. Metode pengukuran yang digunakan adalah denganmengukur order cancellation dari masing-masing jenis saham seperti yang telahdilakukan oleh Chan dan Ma (2014). Dengan demikian dapat dianalisis pengaruhorder cancellation ini dalam tindakan kejahatan manipulasi pasar yang berupa orderbasedmanipulation;In financial markets, getting an abnormal return is something that is desired by allinvestors both large-scale investors, small-scale traders, as well as by the company inthis case securities broker. Various techniques in performing a transaction carried outby the investor, to obtain abnormal return, started by doing some research to get theintrinsic value of a company until committing a crime in the financial markets.Crimes that occurred in the financial markets vary from fraud in transactions throughmarket manipulation. In terms of handling the losses that is gained by each of thefinancial actors, the authorities in the country make the various regulations. But inthis case, the action of market manipulation is very difficult to prove, as has beenrevealed by Jarrow (1992). This thesis measures the volatility and liquidity levels as aproxy for an indication of market manipulation in the Indonesian stock market. Inresearching market manipulation, volatility and liquidity can be used as a referencefor describing the behavior of other investors to defraud investors in obtainingabnormal returns. Measurement method used is to measure the cancellation order ofeach type of shares as has been done by Chan and Ma (2014). Thus it can be analyzedthe effect of this cancellation order in the criminal market manipulation in the form ofan order-based manipulation;In financial markets, getting an abnormal return is something that is desired by allinvestors both large-scale investors, small-scale traders, as well as by the company inthis case securities broker. Various techniques in performing a transaction carried outby the investor, to obtain abnormal return, started by doing some research to get theintrinsic value of a company until committing a crime in the financial markets.Crimes that occurred in the financial markets vary from fraud in transactions throughmarket manipulation. In terms of handling the losses that is gained by each of thefinancial actors, the authorities in the country make the various regulations. But inthis case, the action of market manipulation is very difficult to prove, as has beenrevealed by Jarrow (1992). This thesis measures the volatility and liquidity levels as aproxy for an indication of market manipulation in the Indonesian stock market. Inresearching market manipulation, volatility and liquidity can be used as a referencefor describing the behavior of other investors to defraud investors in obtainingabnormal returns. Measurement method used is to measure the cancellation order ofeach type of shares as has been done by Chan and Ma (2014). Thus it can be analyzedthe effect of this cancellation order in the criminal market manipulation in the form ofan order-based manipulation;In financial markets, getting an abnormal return is something that is desired by allinvestors both large-scale investors, small-scale traders, as well as by the company inthis case securities broker. Various techniques in performing a transaction carried outby the investor, to obtain abnormal return, started by doing some research to get theintrinsic value of a company until committing a crime in the financial markets.Crimes that occurred in the financial markets vary from fraud in transactions throughmarket manipulation. In terms of handling the losses that is gained by each of thefinancial actors, the authorities in the country make the various regulations. But inthis case, the action of market manipulation is very difficult to prove, as has beenrevealed by Jarrow (1992). This thesis measures the volatility and liquidity levels as aproxy for an indication of market manipulation in the Indonesian stock market. Inresearching market manipulation, volatility and liquidity can be used as a referencefor describing the behavior of other investors to defraud investors in obtainingabnormal returns. Measurement method used is to measure the cancellation order ofeach type of shares as has been done by Chan and Ma (2014). Thus it can be analyzedthe effect of this cancellation order in the criminal market manipulation in the form ofan order-based manipulation, In financial markets, getting an abnormal return is something that is desired by allinvestors both large-scale investors, small-scale traders, as well as by the company inthis case securities broker. Various techniques in performing a transaction carried outby the investor, to obtain abnormal return, started by doing some research to get theintrinsic value of a company until committing a crime in the financial markets.Crimes that occurred in the financial markets vary from fraud in transactions throughmarket manipulation. In terms of handling the losses that is gained by each of thefinancial actors, the authorities in the country make the various regulations. But inthis case, the action of market manipulation is very difficult to prove, as has beenrevealed by Jarrow (1992). This thesis measures the volatility and liquidity levels as aproxy for an indication of market manipulation in the Indonesian stock market. Inresearching market manipulation, volatility and liquidity can be used as a referencefor describing the behavior of other investors to defraud investors in obtainingabnormal returns. Measurement method used is to measure the cancellation order ofeach type of shares as has been done by Chan and Ma (2014). Thus it can be analyzedthe effect of this cancellation order in the criminal market manipulation in the form ofan order-based manipulation]"

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh aktivitas perdagangan saham investor asing terhadap performa pasar modal Indonesia sebelum dan saat periode krisis pandemi COVID-19. Aktivitas perdagangan investor asing diproksikan oleh volume pembelian, nilai pembelian, frekuensi pembelian, volume penjualan, nilai penjualan, dan frekuensi penjualan harian. Lalu, proksi yang digunakan untuk performa pasar modal Indonesia adalah return, likuiditas dan volatilitas harian IHSG. Data perdagangan saham diproses dengan menggunakan metode regresi OLS dan prosedur Newey-West HAC. Penelitian menemukan bahwa aktivitas perdagangan saham investor asing memiliki pengaruh dua arah terhadap return dan likuiditas pada periode normal dan pandemi, dimana pengaruh pada periode pandemi lebih besar dari pada pengaruh pada periode normal. Lalu, aktivitas perdagangan saham investor asing mempengaruhi volatilitas pada periode normal dan meningkatkannya pada periode krisis

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The COVID-19 pandemic had caused a decline in the Indonesian stock market performance. This paper analyzes how much of the decline was due to foreign investor trading activity and how much its impact changed from before the crisis period. The stock market’s performance is proxied by return, liquidity, and volatility. While foreign investor trading activity is proxied by buying and selling volume, value and frequency. Trading data for each period are processed through OLS regression with Newey-West's HAC procedure. The results show that foreign investor trading activity has bi-directional impact on return and liquidity, where the impact on both are greater during the crisis period. Additionally, foreign investor trading activity impacts volatility significantly in the non-crisis period, while an increase in trading activity increases volatility in the crisis period"

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengukur persistensi guncangan volatilitas saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia, yaitu Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Indeks Pasar) dan sembilan Indeks Sektoral pada saat pengumuman masuknya COVID-19 ke Indonesia yang diproksi dengan penduduk domestik yang terinfeksi. Peningkatan guncangan volatilitas IHSG dan Indeks Sektoral merupakah reaksi dari investor terhadap pembatasan pergerakan manusia dalam rangka pencegahan penyebaran COVID-19 (Kusumahadi & Permana, 2021). Penelitian ini mengukur estimasi conditional variance (volatilitas) dengan menggunakan model GARCH (1,1) dengan periode observasi data secara time series dari bulan Januari 2016 sampai dengan 30 April 2021 pada masa kemunculan domestik COVID-19 di Indonesia. Hasil regresi menunjukkan adanya peningkatan kemampuan indeks pasar dalam menyerap guncangan volatilitas pada periode setelah diumumkan kasus positif COVID-19 pertama kali di Indonesia yang menunjukkan kemampuan pasar cukup baik dalam merespon krisis. Adapun indeks sektor Industri Barang Konsumsi yang merupakan kelompok industri makanan dan minuman, produsen tembakau, farmasi, kosmetik dan rumah tangga, peralatan rumah tangga, dan lainnya, berdasarkan hasil penelitian mempunyai kemampuan yang paling cepat dalam menyerap guncangan volatilitas. Bukti ini dapat menjadi informasi yang penting bagi investor, akademisi maupun pengusaha dalam memahami persistensi guncangan volatilitas dari indeks pasar maupun sektoral karena terkait dengan potensi imbal hasil dan risiko yang ditimbulkan.

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This study aims to measure the persistence of stock volatility shocks on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, namely the Composite Stock Price Index (Market Index) and nine sectoral indices, at the time of the announcement of the entry of COVID-19 into Indonesia, which were proxied by infected domestic residents. The increased volatilities of the JCI and the sectoral indices were reactions from investors to the restrictions on human movement to prevent the spread of COVID-19 (Kusumahadi & Permana, 2021). This study estimates the conditional variance (volatility) by using the GARCH (1,1) model with a time series data observation period from January 2016 to April 30, 2021, before and after the domestic emergence of COVID-19 in Indonesia. It was found that there was an increase in the ability of the market index to absorb volatility shocks in the period after the announcement of the first positive case of COVID-19 in Indonesia, which shows the market's ability to respond to the crisis is quite good. The Consumer Goods industry sector index, which is a group of food and beverage industries, producers of tobacco, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, household appliances, and others, can absorb volatility shocks at the shortest period. The results of this study provide important information for investors, academics, and entrepreneurs in understanding the persistence of volatility shocks from the market and sectoral indices because they are related to potential returns and the risks involved."