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"Kurva Phillips menggambarkan hubungan negatif antara inflasi dan tingkat pengangguran. Namun, pengujian empiris menggunakan data pasca-krisis 1998 dalam konteks Indonesia belum mencapai konsensus mengenai hubungan antara inflasi dan pengangguran. Mengisi kesenjangan penelitian tersebut, penelitian ini membuat ulang estimasi kurva Phillips menggunakan metode baru, dengan memanfaatkan data Survei Angkatan Kerja Nasional (Sakernas) dan indeks harga tingkat kota daripada tingkat nasional. Dengan menggunakan model fixed effect yang memperhitungkan heterogenitas regional, penelitian ini berhasil mengkonfirmasi keberadaan kurva Phillips, meskipun dengan kemiringan kurva yang rendah. Keberadaan kurva Phillips berarti bank sentral masih menanggung cost of disinflation. Oleh karena itu, bank sentral harus secara cermat mengelola ekspektasi inflasi untuk menjaga stabilitas harga tanpa mengorbankan kegiatan ekonomi. Penelitian berkontribusi pada diskusi mengenai perumusan kebijakan makroekonomi dan memberikan pemahaman yang lebih baik tentang dinamika kurva Phillips di Indonesia.

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The Phillips curve illustrates a negative relationship between inflation and the unemployment rate. However, empirical investigations from post-1998 crisis data in the Indonesian context have revealed an unclear pattern. There is a lack of consensus among scholars concerning the nature of the association between inflation and unemployment. To bridge this gap, this study reexamines the Phillips curve using newer method, leveraging data from the National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas) and city-level price indices instead of the national level. Employing a fixed-effect model that accounts for regional heterogeneity, this research successfully confirms the existence of the Phillips curve, albeit with a weakened magnitude of effect. The existence of the Phillips curve implies that central banks bear the inherent costs of disinflation. Consequently, central banks must adeptly manage inflation expectations to effectively maintain price stability without unduly sacrificing economic activity. This research contributes to the ongoing discourse on macroeconomic policy formulation by shedding light on the nuanced dynamics of the Phillips curve within the Indonesian context."

"Penelitian ini mensimulasikan dampak kebijakan Average-Inflation Targeting (AIT) di Indonesia menggunakan model DSGE Keynesian Baru Dua Agen (TANK DSGE). Studi ini membandingkan AIT dengan kerangka Inflation Targeting (IT) standar dalam menghadapi demand dan supply shock. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa AIT cenderung meningkatkan volatilitas output setelah demand shock karena penyesuaian suku bunga yang lebih lambat. Sebaliknya, IT memberikan stabilisasi lebih cepat melalui respons kebijakan yang agresif. Namun, AIT lebih efektif saat menghadapi tekanan deflasi atau cost-push shock, karena memungkinkan pengetatan yang lebih bertahap tanpa mengorbankan kredibilitas inflasi. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa efektivitas AIT bersifat kontekstual. AIT memberikan fleksibilitas lebih dalam menghadapi gangguan pasokan, tetapi berisiko memperburuk volatilitas jangka pendek dalam siklus yang didorong oleh permintaan. Oleh karena itu, pilihan kebijakan inflasi perlu disesuaikan dengan jenis guncangan yang dominan di perekonomian.

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This thesis examines the macroeconomic effects of adopting Average Inflation Targeting (AIT) in Indonesia using a Two-Agent New Keynesian DSGE model. It is motivated by recent deflationary episodes and vulnerability to global trade shocks. The model compares AIT with standard Inflation Targeting (IT) under both demand and supply disturbances. Simulation results indicate that AIT leads to larger and more persistent output deviations after demand shocks due to slower policy adjustments. In contrast, IT stabilizes the economy more quickly through stronger interest rate responses. However, AIT is beneficial during deflation or cost-push shocks, allowing gradual tightening while maintaining inflation credibility. The findings suggest AIT’s effectiveness in Indonesia depends on the nature of the shock. AIT offers flexibility and supports output during adverse supply conditions. Yet, it may also worsen short-term volatility in demand-driven downturns. Therefore, the choice between AIT and IT should consider the dominant macroeconomic environment and trade-offs between output stability and inflation control."

"Penelitian ini mensimulasikan dampak kebijakan Average-Inflation Targeting (AIT) di Indonesia menggunakan model DSGE Keynesian Baru Dua Agen (TANK DSGE). Studi ini membandingkan AIT dengan kerangka Inflation Targeting (IT) standar dalam menghadapi demand dan supply shock. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa AIT cenderung meningkatkan volatilitas output setelah demand shock karena penyesuaian suku bunga yang lebih lambat. Sebaliknya, IT memberikan stabilisasi lebih cepat melalui respons kebijakan yang agresif. Namun, AIT lebih efektif saat menghadapi tekanan deflasi atau cost-push shock, karena memungkinkan pengetatan yang lebih bertahap tanpa mengorbankan kredibilitas inflasi. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa efektivitas AIT bersifat kontekstual. AIT memberikan fleksibilitas lebih dalam menghadapi gangguan pasokan, tetapi berisiko memperburuk volatilitas jangka pendek dalam siklus yang didorong oleh permintaan. Oleh karena itu, pilihan kebijakan inflasi perlu disesuaikan dengan jenis guncangan yang dominan di perekonomian.

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This thesis examines the macroeconomic effects of adopting Average Inflation Targeting (AIT) in Indonesia using a Two-Agent New Keynesian DSGE model. It is motivated by recent deflationary episodes and vulnerability to global trade shocks. The model compares AIT with standard Inflation Targeting (IT) under both demand and supply disturbances. Simulation results indicate that AIT leads to larger and more persistent output deviations after demand shocks due to slower policy adjustments. In contrast, IT stabilizes the economy more quickly through stronger interest rate responses. However, AIT is beneficial during deflation or cost-push shocks, allowing gradual tightening while maintaining inflation credibility. The findings suggest AIT’s effectiveness in Indonesia depends on the nature of the shock. AIT offers flexibility and supports output during adverse supply conditions. Yet, it may also worsen short-term volatility in demand-driven downturns. Therefore, the choice between AIT and IT should consider the dominant macroeconomic environment and trade-offs between output stability and inflation control."