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"The world population, as well as Indonesia, is aging and this demographic transition influences saving, investment, and capital flows. By looking at data from 1973 to 2017, this paper finds two things. First, the relationship between age groups and saving exhibits the inverted U-shape, but only old dependency impact negatively on investment based on 104 countries data. The capital flows represented by current account is deficit in the young dependency, but surplus in the old dependency. Second, demographic transition in Indonesia induced an increase in savings by a higher rate than investment and caused current account surplus in this period.

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Dunia dan juga Indonesia menghadapi aging population dan perubahan demografis ini mempengaruhi tabungan, investasi, dan aliran modal. Berdasarkan data dari 1973 hingga 2017, tesis ini menemukan dua hal, Pertama, hubungan antara kelompok umur dan tabungan memperlihatkan bentuk punuk, tetapi hanya kelompok usia tua yang berpengaruh negatif terhadap investasi berdasarkan data 104 negara. Aliran modal yang direpresentasikan oleh neraca transaksi berjalan mengalami defisit pada kelompok usia muda tetapi surplus pada kelompok usia tua. Kedua, Perubahan demografis di Indonesia menyebabkan kenaikan pada tabungan dengan lebih tinggi daripada kenaikan pada investasi dan juga menyebabkan surplus pada neraca transaksi berjalan selama periode ini.

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"ABSTRAKKetimpangan pendapatan telah menjadi masalah yang terus berkembang selama dua dekade terakhir. Tingkat ketimpangan pendapatan yang tinggi dapat menghalangi pertumbuhan ekonomi dan menyebabkan keresahan sosial. Dalam kasus Indonesia, koefisien Gini terus menunjukan tren yang positif. Jaminan sosial merupakan salah satu elemen utama dalam kebijakan publik untuk mengurangi ketimpangan pendapatan. Oleh karena itu, penilitian ini bertujuan untuk mempelajari dampak jaminan sosial terhadap ketimpangan pendapatan di Indonesia menggunakan data panel dengan efek tetap di 33 provinsi dari tahun 2001-2012. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa jaminan sosial di Indonesia berdampak negatif terhadap ketimpangan sosial karena sebagian besar manfaat dari jaminan sosial dinikmati oleh golongan menengah keatas. Dalam kasus ini, pemerintah sebaiknya memperbaiki proses administrasi dalam pemberian jaminan sosial untuk menghindari kesalahan dalam mengidentifikasi calon penerima manfaat sebelum anggaran kebijakan sosial ditingkatkan.

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ABSTRACTIncome inequality has become a growing concern over the last two decades. High level of inequality could potentially cripple economic growth and increase social distress. As for the case in Indonesia, the Gini coefficient shows an upward trend of income inequality. Sincesocial security is one of the central elements of public policy to reduce inequality, this paper examines the impact of social security spending towards inequality in Indonesia using panel data with fixed effect method across 33 provinces from 2001-2012. The results suggest that social security spending has positive correlation with income inequality. Previous studies indicate that social security spending in Indonesia has negative impact because it benefits mostly for the non-poor.In this case, the government should improve the administration process to eliminate the errors in identifying the intended beneficiaries before the budget allocated to social security is increased."

"[Pengaruh positif infrstruktur terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi telah menjadi konsensus di antara para ekonom. Akan tetapi beberapa hasil penelitian menunjukkan hasil yang beragam. Walaupun investasi publik untuk infrastruktur relatif kecil tetapi Indonesia berhasil menjaga pertumbuhan ekonominya. Penelitian ini ditujukan untuk mengetahui kontribusi infrastruktur terhadap pembangunan ekonomi di Indonesia. Dengan menggunakan data level provinsi di Indionesia, studi ini berusaha mengetahui kontribusi infrastruktur secara agregat dan individual terhadap perkeonomian daerah. Perhitungan regresi menggunakan efek tetap menunjukkan bahwa secara agregat infrastruktur berkontibusi secara positif kepada pertumbuhan ekonomi. Akan tetapi, studi ini tidak menemukan cukup bukti yang menunjukkan bahwa secara individual setiap tipe infrastruktur berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah kecuali untuk tipe infrastruktur air bersih. Dengan demikian, pembangunan infrastruktur akan lebih baik jika dilakukan secara komprehensif dan integral.;The positive impact of infrastructure on growth has become a consensus among the economist. However, many studies provide a mixed evidence. Althoughpublic investment on infrastructure is relatively small, Indonesia can maintain its economic growth. This study is aimed to examine contribution of infrastructure to economic development in Indonesia. By using provincial data in Indonesia, this study estimates the contribution of aggregate infrastructure and individual infrastructure on regional economic growth. From the fixed effect estimation, we find that aggregate infrastructure contribute to the regional economic growth.However, this study does not provide enough evidence to support the individual effect of infrastructure on regional growth in Indonesia except safe water access. Therefore, the infrastructure development cannot be partially implemented;The positive impact of infrastructure on growth has become a consensusamong the economist. However, many studies provide a mixed evidence. Althoughpublic investment on infrastructure is relatively small, Indonesia can maintain itseconomic growth. This study is aimed to examine contribution of infrastructure toeconomic development in Indonesia. By using provincial data in Indonesia, thisstudy estimates the contribution of aggregate infrastructure and individualinfrastructure on regional economic growth. From the fixed effect estimation, wefind that aggregate infrastructure contribute to the regional economic growth.However, this study does not provide enough evidence to support the individualeffect of infrastructure on regional growth in Indonesia except safe water access.Therefore, the infrastructure development cannot be partially implemented, The positive impact of infrastructure on growth has become a consensusamong the economist. However, many studies provide a mixed evidence. Althoughpublic investment on infrastructure is relatively small, Indonesia can maintain itseconomic growth. This study is aimed to examine contribution of infrastructure toeconomic development in Indonesia. By using provincial data in Indonesia, thisstudy estimates the contribution of aggregate infrastructure and individualinfrastructure on regional economic growth. From the fixed effect estimation, wefind that aggregate infrastructure contribute to the regional economic growth.However, this study does not provide enough evidence to support the individualeffect of infrastructure on regional growth in Indonesia except safe water access.Therefore, the infrastructure development cannot be partially implemented]"

"Indonesia adalah produsen dan eksportir minyak sawit mentah (CPO) terbesar di dunia, menguasai hampir setengah dari pasokan global pada tahun 2022. Pertumbuhan industri CPO sebagian didorong oleh kenaikan harga. Namun, harga CPO yang tinggi juga berdampak pada kenaikan harga dalam negeri, termasuk minyak goreng. Hal ini menekan pemerintah Indonesia untuk mengatur harga melalu berbagaii kebijakan, salah satunya pembatasan ekspor. Tulisan ini mengkaji efektivitas kebijakan pembatasan ekspor dan kejutan harga domestik lainnya yang dapat diintervensi pemerintah. Dengan menggunakan model Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR), makalah ini menemukan bahwa kebijakan pembatasan ekspor tidak efektif dalam menurunkan harga CPO dan minyak goreng domestik. Hal ini disebabkan oleh keterkaitan harga yang kuat antara harga CPO internasional dan harga CPO domestik. Selain itu, shocks di tingkat rumah tangga dan industri domestik yang diamati juga tidak signifikan dalam mempengaruhi harga, sehingga ruang lingkup intervensi pemerintah terbatas. Akhirnya, makalah ini menyarankan agar pemerintah berhati-hati dalam mengintervensi harga pasar dan sebaliknya berfokus pada peningkatan akses terhadap produk makanan yang terjangkau. 

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Indonesia is the world's largest producer and exporter of crude palm oil (CPO), accounting for nearly half of global supply in 2022. The CPO industry's growth has been driven in part by rising prices. However, high CPO prices have also led to higher domestic prices, including for cooking oil. This has put pressure on the Indonesian government to regulate prices through policies, such as export restrictions. This paper examines the effectiveness of export-restricting policies and other domestic price shocks that the government could intervene in. Using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) models, the paper finds that export-restricting policies are not effective in reducing domestic CPO and cooking oil prices. This is due to the strong price linkages between international CPO prices and domestic CPO prices. Additionally, the observed domestic household- and firm-level shocks are also insignificant in affecting prices, limiting the scope for government intervention. Finally, the paper suggests that the government should be cautious about interfering with market prices and should instead focus on improving access to affordable food products."