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Abstrak :
[ABSTRAK
Indonesia merupakan salah satu produsen terbesar komoditas kakao biji di dunia. Hal ini menandakan bahwa kakao biji merupakan salah satu komoditas terpenting bagi Indonesia. Karenanya, pemerintah perlu menjaga stabilitas produksi dari komoditas terserbut. Selanjutnya, peran penting dari komoditas kakao biji ditandai dengan besarnya share ekspor dari komoditas tersebut terhadap total ekspor sektor pertanian Indonesia dan juga peran penting dari komoditas kakao biji terhadap mata pencaharian utama petani kecil di pedesaan.

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji determinan dari produksi komoditas kakao biji Indonesia. Secara lebih khusus, penelitian ini mendiskusikan bagaimana faktor-faktor agronomis, karakteristik petani, dan proses rantai nilai dapat mempengaruhi produksi kakao biji di Indonesia yang dijelaskan melalui metode kualitatif. Selain itu, penilitian ini juga menguji bagaimana pengaruh dari harga produsen dan perubahannya, harga dunia, curah hujan, dan inflasi terhadap produksi komoditas kakao biji Indonesia dengan menggunakan model random effect.

Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa faktor-faktor agronomis dapat mempengaruhi produksi kakao biji melalui tingkat curah hujan dan tingkat kelembaban yang memngaruhi pohon kakao. Selanjutnya, karakteristik petani, seperti motif untuk memenuhi kebutuhan sehar-hari, dapat memengaruhi keputusan petani dalam membudidayakan komoditas kakao biji. Proses rantai nilai menjelaskan bahwa harga produsen secara langsung mempengaruhi kapasitas produksi domestic, sedangkan harga internasional secara tidak langsung mempengaruhi kapasitas produksi. Sementara itu, model random effect menunjukkan bahwa harga produsen, perubahan harga produsen, harga dunia, dan inflasi secara signifikan memberikan pengaruh terhadap produksi kakao biji domestik.

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ABSTRACT
Currently, Indonesia has become one of the major producers of cocoa bean in the world. Then, it makes cocoa bean as one of the important commodities for Indonesia. Since the crop has become one of the important commodities for Indonesian economy, the government needs to maintain the stability of cocoa bean production. The important role of cocoa bean can be shown by the share of cocoa bean export on Indonesian agricultural export and the livelihood of smallholder farmers.

This research aims to examine the determinants of Indonesian cocoa bean production. Particularly, this research discusses how the agronomics factors, farmers? characteristics, and value chain process can affect the cocoa bean production in Indonesia. Qualitative analysis is used to discuss these factors. Furthermore, this research also examines the affect of producer price, change in producer price, world price, rainfall, and inflation on the cocoa bean production. Random effect model is used to examine the affect of those variables.

The result reveals that agronomics factors can affect the production through the impact of rainfall and humidity on cocoa tree. The farmers? characteristics, i.e. the motive to survive can affect the decision of farmers in cultivating cocoa bean. The value chain process can explain that producer price of cocoa bean can directly affect the domestic production, whereas the world price indirectly affects the domestic production. Meanwhile, the random effect model reveals that change in price of cocoa bean, producer price of cocoa bean, the world price, and inflation significantly affect the domestic production.;Currently, Indonesia has become one of the major producers of cocoa bean in the world. Then, it makes cocoa bean as one of the important commodities for Indonesia. Since the crop has become one of the important commodities for Indonesian economy, the government needs to maintain the stability of cocoa bean production. The important role of cocoa bean can be shown by the share of cocoa bean export on Indonesian agricultural export and the livelihood of smallholder farmers. This research aims to examine the determinants of Indonesian cocoa bean production. Particularly, this research discusses how the agronomics factors, farmers’ characteristics, and value chain process can affect the cocoa bean production in Indonesia. Qualitative analysis is used to discuss these factors. Furthermore, this research also examines the affect of producer price, change in producer price, world price, rainfall, and inflation on the cocoa bean production. Random effect model is used to examine the affect of those variables. The result reveals that agronomics factors can affect the production through the impact of rainfall and humidity on cocoa tree. The farmers’ characteristics, i.e. the motive to survive can affect the decision of farmers in cultivating cocoa bean. The value chain process can explain that producer price of cocoa bean can directly affect the domestic production, whereas the world price indirectly affects the domestic production. Meanwhile, the random effect model reveals that change in price of cocoa bean, producer price of cocoa bean, the world price, and inflation significantly affect the domestic production., Currently, Indonesia has become one of the major producers of cocoa bean in the world. Then, it makes cocoa bean as one of the important commodities for Indonesia. Since the crop has become one of the important commodities for Indonesian economy, the government needs to maintain the stability of cocoa bean production. The important role of cocoa bean can be shown by the share of cocoa bean export on Indonesian agricultural export and the livelihood of smallholder farmers. This research aims to examine the determinants of Indonesian cocoa bean production. Particularly, this research discusses how the agronomics factors, farmers’ characteristics, and value chain process can affect the cocoa bean production in Indonesia. Qualitative analysis is used to discuss these factors. Furthermore, this research also examines the affect of producer price, change in producer price, world price, rainfall, and inflation on the cocoa bean production. Random effect model is used to examine the affect of those variables. The result reveals that agronomics factors can affect the production through the impact of rainfall and humidity on cocoa tree. The farmers’ characteristics, i.e. the motive to survive can affect the decision of farmers in cultivating cocoa bean. The value chain process can explain that producer price of cocoa bean can directly affect the domestic production, whereas the world price indirectly affects the domestic production. Meanwhile, the random effect model reveals that change in price of cocoa bean, producer price of cocoa bean, the world price, and inflation significantly affect the domestic production.]

Abstrak :
[ABSTRAK
Penelitian ini membahas fungsi, dalam hal penargetan, dan dampak dari program transfer tunai (BSM) terhadap putus sekolah. Hasil penelitian, berdasarkan data Susenas 2013, menemukan bahwa pencapaian target pada program ini masih sangat rendah dan masih terdapat rumah tangga miskin yang memenuhi kriteria program yang belum menerima program. Pada saat yang sama, terdapat rumah tangga yang seharusnya tidak menerima tetapi menerima program (inclusion error) sebesar 50 sampai 70 persen tergantung tingkat pendidikan. Meskipun kinerja penargetan rendah, hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa program ini memiliki dampak positif dalam hal mengurangi kemungkinan putus sekolah di semua tingkat pendidikan untuk anak-anak pada 25% rumah tangga termiskin berdasarkan distribusi pengeluaran per kapita. Khususnya, diantara termiskin 25% dari rumah tangga, program ini berhasil mengurangi angka putus sekolah sekitar 21,8%;29,2% dan 85,4% pada tingkat SD, SMP dan SMA. Berdasarkan analisis, kesimpulan pada penelitian ini adalah bahwa program harus dipertahankan dan efisiensi penargetan perlu di perbaiki karena program BSM memiliki dampak yang berarti bagi rumah tangga miskin yang berpenghasilan rendah untuk mengurangi resiko putus sekolah.

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ABSTRACT This paper examines the functioning in terms of targeting and the effect of a cash transfer program BSM on dropping out of school The analysis based on Susenas data 2013 reveals that the program has a very low reach and a number of eligible households are excluded At the same time there are inclusion errors and depending on the level of education 50 to 70 percent of the beneficiaries are ineligible Despite the low targeting performance the analysis shows that the program has a positive effect on reducing the probability of dropping out of school at all levels education for children in the poorest quartile of the expenditure distribution Specifically among the poorest 25 of households the program works towards reducing the drop out rate at around 21 8 29 2 and 85 4 at primary junior and senior high school level respectively Based on the analysis the paper concludes that the program should be maintained and targeting efficiency needs to be improved as the program has a meaningful effect for low income householdsin terms of reducing the risk of dropping out of school Key words Cash Transfer Program Drop out School Poor students Targeting , his paper examines the functioning in terms of targeting and the effect of a cash transfer program BSM on dropping out of school The analysis based on Susenas data 2013 reveals that the program has a very low reach and a number of eligible households are excluded At the same time there are inclusion errors and depending on the level of education 50 to 70 percent of the beneficiaries are ineligible Despite the low targeting performance the analysis shows that the program has a positive effect on reducing the probability of dropping out of school at all levels education for children in the poorest quartile of the expenditure distribution Specifically among the poorest 25 of households the program works towards reducing the drop out rate at around 21 8 29 2 and 85 4 at primary junior and senior high school level respectively Based on the analysis the paper concludes that the program should be maintained and targeting efficiency needs to be improved as the program has a meaningful effect for low income householdsin terms of reducing the risk of dropping out of school Key words Cash Transfer Program Drop out School Poor students Targeting ]