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Penurunan fertilitas adalah suatu fenomena demografis yang terjadi secara global, termasuk di Indonesia. Fenomena ini dapat berdampak positif atau negatif terhadap suatu negara, tergantung pada tingkat fertilitas negara tersebut. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melihat perbedaan penurunan tingkat fertilitas pada tingkat kabupaten/kota di Indonesia dan mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang secara umum memengaruhi penurunan tersebut. Regresi logistik biner pada 497 kabupaten/kota di Indonesia dengan menganalisis selisih nilai variabel-variabel pada 2010 dan 2020 digunakan untuk menganalisis determinan-determinan penurunan tingkat fertilitas tersebut. Hasil regresi menunjukkan bahwa selisih tingkat prevalensi keluarga berencana pada 2010 dan 2020 sebagai faktor langsung terhadap fertilitas memiliki hubungan yang positif dan signifikan terhadap probabilitas penurunan fertilitas. Temuan ini sesuai dengan teori Bongaarts (1978) yang menunjukkan peranan variabel kontrasepsi terhadap tingkat fertilitas.

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Fertility decline is a demographic phenomenon that is happening globally, including in Indonesia. This phenomenon might have positive or negative impacts towards a country, depending on the country’s fertility rate. This study aims to look at the differences in fertility decline on district level in Indonesia and to identify factors that affect such decline. Binary logistic regressions on 497 districts and cities in Indonesia by analyzing the change scores of the variables in 2010 and 2020 are used to analyze the determinants of the fertility decline. The results show that the difference in contraceptive prevalence rate in 2010 and 2020 as a direct determinants of fertility has a postive and significant effect towards the probability of a decline in fertility. This finding confirms the theory of Bongaarts (1978) that shows the role of contraception in reducing fertility rates.

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"The aim of the present study is to build somemathematical models and then to forecast some fertility parametersin urban area of Bangladesh. For this purpose, the secondary timeseries data on Crude Birth Rate (CBR), Total Fertility Rate (FFR).Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) and Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)of various issues duly published by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics(BBS) have been used in the present study. A few mathematical timetrend models have been fitted to time series data of CBR, TFR, GRRand NRR It is _found that the CBR follows quadratic H.e. parabolic)polynomial model while the TPR, GRR and NRR follow simplelinear regression model. Model validation technique .such as Cross-Validity Prediction Power (C VFP), pi, , is applied to these modelsto verify how much these models are valid or not. It was found thatall these models are more than 95%, 79%, 82%, and 72% stablerespectively and their shrinkages are only 0.00739Z 0.032l33.0. 027916, and 0.0424229, respectively. These rates have beenforecasted during 1999-2005 using these time trend models."