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"ABSTRAKThis paper empirically tests the dynamics of credit cards and monetary policy in thecontext of Indonesia. Using monthly data from 2006 to 2018 and a structural vectorautoregressive model, our findings indicate that credit card usage is mainly drivenby Indonesias fast economic growth over the last decade, which indeed reflects therole of credit cards in consumption smoothing. The study also finds that monetarypolicy transmission through the lending channel is weak, with a more prevalent rolefor exchange rates and global oil prices in the transmission process."

"The endogeneity of Oil Price Shocks and Their Effect of Indonesia : A structural Vector Autoregression Model. In the paper the endogeneity of oil price shocks as well as the effects of different type of the shocks on the Indonesian economy represented by its gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index (CPI) and real effective exchage rate (REER) were investigated. A structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model was constructed extending Killian (2009) model by employing several lags constrains in the model as Indonesia is a small open economy. There was evidence that oil proce shocks were endogenously formed by oil-spesific-demand itself, aggregate global demand and fraction of oil stock. The exports' effect convincingly existed in the oil price shocks influencing the economy of Indonesia. In addition, there was no evidence that Indonesia enjoyed benefits from being an OPEC member. "

"ABSTRACTMacro-prudential policies have an essential role in mitigating the imbalances in the financial sector that stem from procyclical credit growth. This study aims to evaluate macro-prudential policy in mitigating risk on procyclical credit growth with a registry data approach. Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) analysis method is used to evaluate macro-prudential policy in influencing credit growth. The results show LTV instruments can reduce credit growth but not to procyclical mitigation. Dissimilar results in the implementation of CCB and GWM + LDR instruments are capable of procyclical credit mitigation. Policies that can be done by the central bank are the establishment of an early warning system in macro-prudential policy as well as strengthening of Countercyclical Buffer (CCB), Loan to Value (LTV) instruments and Minimum Reserve Requirement + Loan Funding Ratio (GWM + LFR) in capturing systemic risks from various sources which further strengthens the assessment and surveillance."

"Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak kebijakan fiskal di Indonesia dan perbedaannya dalam 2 periode: Periode I (1993Q1-2018Q4), yang mencakup Krisis Keuangan Asia dan Krisis Keuangan Global, dan Periode II (2019M1-2021M12), yang mencakup Krisis Pandemi COVID-19. Penelitian ini menggunakan model Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) yang dikembangkan oleh Perotti (2004), yang menggunakan restriksi berdasarkan informasi institutional mengenai sistem penganggaran pemerintah. Hasil analisis menyimpulkan bahwa: 1) perubahan kebijakan fiskal mempengaruhi PDB secara signifikan di kedua periode; 2) pergerakan dinamis dari PDB lebih banyak dipengaruhi oleh kebijakan belanja, dibandingkan kebijakan pendapatan; 3) kebijakan fiskal, khususnya pendapatan, lebih banyak mempengaruhi inflasi di Periode II; 4) kebijakan fiskal memiliki peranan yang sangat kecil dalam mempengaruhi tingkat suku bunga.

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This study aims to know the effects of fiscal policy shock in Indonesia and investigate the differences within two periods: Period I (1993Q1-2018Q4), which include the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis, and Period II (2019M1-2021M12), which include the COVID-19 Pandemic crisis. This study uses Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model, developed by Perotti (2004), which determine the restrictions based on institutional information of government budget system. This study concludes that: 1) shocks on fiscal policies significantly affect GDP in both periods; 2) the dynamic movement of GDP is more influenced by government spending than government revenue; 3) fiscal policy, especially revenue, has greater influences on inflation in Period II; 4) fiscal policy has minor role in affecting the interest rate."

"ABSTRACTThis research aims to observe the shock symmetry between thirteen ASEAN Plus Three countries in order to justify the formation of Optimum Currency Area within the region. Five variable structural vector autoregressive model is employed to chosen macroeconomic variables as proxies to shocks using yearly data from 1980 to 2015.Size of disturbances, speed of adjustment, impulse response to exchange rate and variance decomposition are analyzed to identify the symmetry of shocks. Results of empirical analysis suggest the formation of a sub region OCA which consists of Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand.

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ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengamati simetri dari gangguan diantara tiga belas negara ASEAN Plus Three untuk mencari pembenaran dalam pembentukan Optimum Currency Area di kawasan ini. Model structural vector autoregressive diterapkan pada variabel makroekonomi yang telah ditunjuk sebagai acuan terhadap gangguan dengan menggunakan data tahunan dari tahun 1980 sampai 2015. Dilakukan analisis pada ukuran gangguan, kecepatan penyesuaian, respon impuls terhadap nilaitukar dan dekomposisi varians untuk mengidentifikasikan simetri dari gangguan. Hasil analisis empiris menyarankan pembentukkan OCA sub-wilayah yang terdiri dari Malaysia, Filipina, Singapura, Indonesia dan Thailand."

"Penelitian dilakukan untuk mengetahui respon dinamis transaksi berjalan apabila defisit anggaran meningkat tiba-tiba melalui jalur nilai tukar dan suku bunga menggunakan data Indonesia periode 2000Q1-2013Q4 dengan model Struktural Vektor Autoregression (SVAR). Penelitian juga ingin mengetahui dampaknya terhadap PDB riil. Berdasarkan Impulse Response Function (IRF) diperoleh hasil bahwa respon transaksi berjalan atas shock defisit anggaran tidak kuat, perubahan berada pada kisaran 0,04%-0,07%. Tidak ditemukan Twin Deficits Hyphotesys dalam perekonomian Indonesia pada periode tersebut. Respon suku bunga naik dan kecil serta memerlukan tiga periode untuk memperoleh apresiasi nilai tukar. Respon PDB terhadap peningkatan defisit anggaran negatif. Berdasarkan Forecast Error Decomposition Variance (FEDV) diperoleh hasil bahwa perubahan transaksi berjalan sangat dipengaruhi pertumbuhan PDB. Pengaruh shock defisit anggaran terhadap perubahan transaksi berjalan relatif kecil.

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The study was conducted to determine the dynamic effects of budget deficits distubances on current account deficit through interest rate and exchange rate using data of Indonesia in 2000Q1-2013Q4 with Structural Vector Autoregression model. The impact on real GDP also to be learned. Result of Impulse Response Function (IRF) is that the effects of shock on current account deficit is not strong, the range are between 0.04% and 0.07%. Twin Deficits Hyphotesys is not found in the Indonesia?s economy during this period. Response of interest rates is increasing and not strong. There is need three-periods to get exchange rate appreciation. Response of GDP is negative. Using Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEDV) is obtained that the current account changes greatly influenced by GDP."