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"ABSTRAKPasar Modal yang berkembang pesat merupakan sarana investasi yang cukup menggiurkan bagi semua orang. Perkiraan yang tepat akan menghasilkan keuntungan yang berlipat ganda. Karena itu ramalan-ramalan tentang harga sekuritas selanjutnya yang bersifat ilmiah berkembang menjadi suatu komoditas yang diminati oleh banyak orang. Hampir semua ramalan-ramalan tersebut bersandar pada apa yang dikenal dengan Random Walk . JJka pasar yang ada tidak mengikuti random walk maka sulit menggunakan ramalan-ramalan tersebut.Pengujian yang dilakukan pada karya akhir int adalah untuk melihat sifat acak dari BEJ untuk periode 11 tahun dengan model tertentu sehingga pengunaan teknik peramalan yang ada menjadi lebih efektif. Pada kesempatan ini pengujian menggunakan model yang diturunkan oleh Lo dan.MacKinlay.Hasil yang didapat adalah terjadi penolakan Ho pada homocedasticity dan tidak ditolaknya Ho pada heteroscedasticity."

"Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui hubungan antara perkembangan pasar modal, dan sistem pembiayaan perbankan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dari periode kuartal pertama tahun 1990 sampai dengan kuartal kedua tahun 2013. Variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah produk domestik bruto, rasio kapitalisasi pasar modal, rasio kredit domestik perbankan dan variabel kontrol yaitu rasio investasi dan indeks harga konsumen. Penelitian ini menggunakan model Vector Autoregression, Granger Causality, Variance Decomposition, dan Impulse Response Function untuk mengetahui hubungan antar variabel.Berdasarkan analisa kausalitas granger, sistem perbankan memberikan kontribusi yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan begitu juga sebaliknya. Sementara itu pada sistem keuangan lainnya yaitu pasar modal tidak membuktikan adanya pengaruh bahwa perkembangannya menjadi penggerak pertumbuhan ekonomi. Namun, pengujian ini membuktikan terdapat hubungan kausalitas antara pasar modal dengan sistem perbankan.Dalam analisa Impulse Response, secara umum respon perilaku yang terjadi pada pasar modal tidak memiliki kesamaan dengan perilaku yang terjadi dalam keuangan perbankan tetapi kedua variabel tersebut memiliki kemiripan pola siklikal menuju kestabilan. Sedangkan pada Variance Decomposition masingmasing variabel menjelaskan respon terhadap guncangan dari variabel lain. Dimana guncangan yang terjadi dalam variabel produk domestik bruto berkurang setiap periode dalam peramalan varians error.

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This study aims to determine how the relationship between stock market development and bank financing system toward economic growth in Indonesia during first quarter of 1990 until second quarter of 2013. The variables used are real gross domestic product, market capitalization ratio, total domestic credit ratio and as control variables are investment ratio and consumer price index. This study uses Vector Autoregression model, Granger Causality, Variance Decomposition, and Impulse Response Function.Regarding Granger Causality analysis, banking system proves that variable causes economic growth and bidirectional. Meanwhile, on the other hand there is no evidence of causality from stock market development to economic growth. However, this paper proves causality relationship between stock market and banking system.In general, the Impulse Response Function reveals the response of stock market behaviour is dissimilar to the response in bank financing. In fact, both of variables have similar cyclical pattern into stability. According Variance Decomposition analysis, allows to asses how a variable respond to shocks in specific variables. When considering Real Gross Domestic Product, the impact from this variable has reduced in every single period of the forecast error variance."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis bagaimana pengaruh macroeconomic uncertainty dan financial uncertainty dari Amerika Serikat terhadap pasar modal saham konvensional dan saham syariah di emerging markets, Amerika Serikat dan ASEAN 5 yaitu Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapura, Thailand dan Filipina. Data yang digunakan dari tahun 2002 sampai dengan 2017. Ada 4 metode asset pricing yang digunakan yaitu Fama-French 3 Factor Model, Carhart 4 Factor Model, Fama-French 5 Factor Model, dan Bali, Brown and Tang model. Dalam penelitian ini, digunakan 3 jenis metode olah data. Pertama menggunakan ordinary least square untuk melihat bagaimana pengaruh uncertainty Amerika Serikat. Yang kedua dan ketiga yang dilakukan adalah robustness check yaitu mengolah data dengan ARCH/GARCH dan mengurangkan indeks pasar modal dengan treasury bills rate. Hasil penelitian ini, yang pertama menyatakan bahwa macroeconomic uncertainty dari Amerika Serikat secara signifikan memengaruhi pasar modal saham konvensional emerging markets, Indonesia, Singapura, Malaysia, Thailand dan Filipina. Yang kedua, financial uncertainty dari Amerika Serikat secara signifikan memengaruhi pasar modal saham konvensional emerging markets dan Singapura jika mengunakan metode French 5 Factor Model dan Bali, Brown and Tang model. Yang ketiga, macroeconomic uncertainty dari Amerika Serikat secara signifikan memengaruhi pasar modal saham syariah emerging markets, Singapura dan Malaysia. Yang keempat, financial uncertainty dari Amerika Serikat secara signifikan memengaruhi pasar modal saham syariah Singapura jika menggunakan model French 5 Factor Model dan Bali, Brown and Tang model.

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This study analyzes the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty and financial uncertainty from the United States on conventional stock market and Islamic stocks in emerging markets, the United States and ASEAN 5, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines. The data was used from 2002 to 2017. There were 4 asset pricing methods used, namely Fama-French 3 Factor Model, Carhart 4 Factor Model, Fama-French 5 Factor Model, and Bali, Brown and Tang model. In this study, 3 types of data processing methods were used. The first one used was ordinary least square to see how the United States uncertainty affects. The second and third conducted is robustness check, namely processing data with ARCH/GARCH and subtracting stock market index with treasury bills rate. The results of this study, the first stated that macroeconomic uncertainty from the United States significantly affected the conventional stock market of emerging markets, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. Secondly, financial uncertainty from the United States significantly affected the conventional stock market of emerging markets and Singapore if using the French 5 Factor Model and Bali, Brown and Tang models. Third, macroeconomic uncertainty from the United States significantly affected the Islamic stock market in emerging markets, Singapore and Malaysia. Fourth, financial uncertainty from the United States significantly affected the Islamic capital markets of Singapore if using the French 5 Factor Model and Bali, Brown and Tang models."

"Stock investors are very concerned with the stock market index because intuitively, most stocks move in the same direction as the stock market index. If the stock market index rises (declines), a portfolio most likely will also increase (decrease) In value. How is the stock market index derived ? ln some capital markets where the listed stocks are quite limited such as Jakarta Stock Exchange, all the stocks (total population) are included in the index calculation. Some indexes, however, do not use the total population but take a representative sample to reflect the market. Once we have the sample (or the total population), the next question is how to give weights to each of the stocks In the sample (or the population). This article explains three weighting methods for index calculation namely price-weighted, value-weighted, and unweighted.A set of examples and an actual but simplified example on IHSG are given to help understand the three calculation (weighting) methods."

"Tesis ini membahas faktor-faktor apa saja yang mempengaruhi korelasi bursa saham Indonesia dengan bursa saham di lima negara lainnya, yaitu Jepang, Hongkong, AS, Inggris dan Australia. Faktor-faktor yang diteliti tidak menyangkut faktor ekonomi saja, namun juga melibatkan faktor geo-politik. Penelitian ini mencoba munguji model yang tidak biasa digunakan dalam manajemen keuangan, yaitu dengan menggunakan Gravity Model. Basil penelitian menemukan bahwa temyata Gravity Model sesuai digunakan untuk memprediksi detenninan korelasi stock market Indonesia dengan lima negara lainnya pada tahun 2004-2009. Determinan korelasi stock market Indonesia adalah besarnya kapitalisasi pasar, Over Lapping Open Hour, dan kesamaan hukum.

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This thesis mainly discusses the determinants of Indonesia's stock market correlations with five otherstock markets in five countries, which are Japan, Hong Kong, USA, UK and Australia. The factors that are observed are not just economic factors but a1so geo-political factors. This study examines a model that is rarely used in financial management that is Gravity Model. The result of this study is that, Gravity Model is suitable enough to estimate the correlation between Indonesia's stock market and five other partners in the year 2004-2009. Hence, the determinants are; market capitalization size, Over Lapping Open Hour, and the law index"

"This paper provides evidence on the reactions of an emerging financial market to monetary policy announcements. We employ an instrumental variable estimation approach based on the "identification through heteroscedasticity" technique to estimate the impact of a change in the official interest rate and its surprise component on asset prices in Indonesia. The new methodology controls for possible feedback relationships between financial variables and official interest rate changes. Data study objects that I used in this thesis are samples of the stock price indexes of JSX, foreign exchanges and SBI rates. Data samples are daily rctums from JSX database and Bloomberg, respectively. Study period covers from August 03, 1998 to January 02, 2004, a total one thousand and fifteen (1415) observations based on trading dates. In our analysis, official interest rates have a smaller significant impact on stock market movements, driving them in the same direction as the change in stock prices. The results suggest that daily interest rates have a smaller significant impact on stock market movements within the period after the Bank Indonesia Act |999 to year 2004, driving them in the same direction as the change in stock prices. On the other hand before Bank Indonesia Act I999, I observe an influence of official interest MIC changes on short-term stock indices."

"This paper empirically examines the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in the Islamic stock marketnamely Jakarta Islamic Index by emphasizing on the random walk behavior and nonlinearity. Inthe first step, we employ Brock et al. (1996) test to examine the presence of nonlinear behavior inJakarta Islamic Index. The evidence of nonlinear behavior in the indices, motivate us to use nonlinearESTAR unit root test procedure recently developed by Kapetanios et al. (2003) and Kruse (2011).The nonlinear unit root test procedure fail to rejects the null hypothesis of unit root for the indices,suggesting that Jakarta Islamic Index characterized by random walk process supporting the theoryof efficient market hypothesis. In addition, Lumsdaine and Papel (LP) test identified significant structuralbreaks in the index series."

"Studi ini mencoba menginvestigasi secara empiris pandangan populer yang berkembang di pasar bahwa hasil pemilihan umum nasional memiliki pengaruh terhadap volatilitas pasar saham, dengan menggunakan sampel internasional dari 17 negara yang merupakan anggota G-20. Dengan menggunakan event-study method dan determinants of election surprise regressions, temuan empiris membuktikan bahwa pemilihan umum nasional terasosiasi dengan volatilitas pasar saham yang meningkat. Volatilitas pasar saham bahkan tetap meningkat hingga beberapa hari setelah hari pemilihan umum nasional ketika dibandingkan dengan benchmark, GARCH (1,1). Lebih lanjut, temuan empiris dari studi ini menunjukkan bahwa pasar saham terasosiasi dengan volatilitas yang lebih tinggi pada saat ketika hasil pemilihan umum berujung pada selisih kemenangan yang sempit, ketika terjadi perubahan orientasi politik untuk pemerintah yang terpilih, dan ketika pemerintah yang terpilih dan koalisinya tidak kuasa untuk memiliki kursi mayoritas di parlemen.

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Motivated by popular believes and motivating evidences citing the crucial influence of election outcome to the stock market, this study aims to weigh in on the topic by investigating a sample of 17 countries from G-20 country members to test whether national elections impacting stock market volatility. By utilizing event-study method and determinants of election surprise regression, this study finds that national election is associated with increased volatility in the stock market. The prolonged reaction of higher volatility as compared to benchmark, GARCH (1,1), also prevails until several days after the election. Furthermore, the findings of this study also ssuggest that election has the explanatory power to induce higher volatility, especially in the cases when elections are resulting in narrow margin of victory, when there is a shift of political orientation, and when government and its coalition are unable to secure majority seats in the congress or parliament. "

"Penelitian ini membahas mengenai spillover volatilitas antara pasar ekuitas negara anggota ASEAN-5 dengan pasar ekuitas Amerika Serikat dan Jepang, pada periode 1 Januari 2004 sampai dengan 31 Desember 2014. Seluruhperiode penelitian dibagai kedalam tiga periode, yaitu : pra krisis, krisis dan pasca krisis. Model yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah bivariate GARCH (1,1) - full BEKK. Hasil empiris pada penelitian ini, yaitu Pertama, Spillover volatilitas memiliki sifat dan besaran yang berbeda beda tergantung pada periode pra krisis, krisis dan pasca krisis. Kedua, ditemukan bukti bahwa pada periode pra krisis tidak ditemukan adanya spillover volatilitas diantara pasar saham ASEAN-5, namun hasil yang berbeda ditunjukan pada periode krisis dan pasca krisis, pada periode tersebut spillover volatilitas terjadi diantara pasar ASEAN-5, namun pada saat krisis magnitude nya lebih besar dibandingkan pasca krisis. Spillover volatilitas yang terjadi diantara negara ASEAN-5 bersifat satu arah (unidirectional). Ketiga, Ditemukan adanya bukti spillover volatilitas dari pasar Amerika dan Jepang menuju pasar ASEAN-5. Pada saat periode pra krisis, pasar Jepang memberikan pengaruh spillover volatilitas lebih besar dibandingkan pasar Amerika. Sedangkan pada saat krisis dan pasca krisis, pasar Amerika memberikan pengaruh yang lebih besar dibandingkan dengan pasar Jepang. Keempat, Hubungan antara pasar Amerika Serikat dan Jepang dengan pasar ASEAN-5 menjadi lebih kompleks pada saat setelah krisis.

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This study examines volatility spillover between ASEAN-5 countries? equity market with USA and Japanese markets in the period January 1, 2004 through December 31, 2004. The whole time-period is divided into three periods as related to the world financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009, namely : precrisis, crisis and post-crisis. Bivariate GARCH (1,1) ? FULL BEKK model is employed to simultaneously estimate the conditional variance between seven different indexes. The following are the results of empirical research : The first, volatility spillover has a different nature and magnitude depending on the period of the pre crisis, crisis and post-crisis. Second, there is evidence that in the pre-crisis period, there are no volatility spillover among the ASEAN-5 stock markets, but the different results shown in the crisis and post-crisis period, during this period of volatility spillover occurs between the ASEAN-5 markets, but in times of crisis magnitude is larger than the post-crisis. Internal volatility spillover occurs among ASEAN-5 is one-way (unidirectional).Third, there is evidence of volatility spillover from the U.S. and Japan to the ASEAN-5 markets. At the time of pre-crisis period, the Japanese market volatility spillover effect is greater than the American market. While in times of crisis and post-crisis, the U.S. market gives greater influence than the Japanese market. Fourth, the external and internal relationship in the ASEAN-5 markets become more complex during the post-crisis."

"This research proposes a numerical approach in estimating the trend of behavior of this market. This approach is applied to a model that is inspired by catalytic chemical model, in terms of differential equations, on four composite indices, New York Stock Exchange, Hong Kong Hang Seng, Straits Times Index, and Jakarta Stock Exchange, as suggested by Caetano and Yoneyama (2011). The approach is used to minimize the difference of estimated indices based on the model with respect to the actual data set. The result shows that the estimation is able to capture the trend of behavior in stock market well."