Hasil Pencarian  ::  Simpan CSV :: Kembali

"Volume harian transaksi valuta asing diseluruh penjuru dunia telah mencapai USD 1.5 trilliun dan sangat likuid. Volume perdagangan ini bahkan lebih besar dari GDP tahunan negara-negara maju. Hal ini menyisakan pertanyaan apakah suatu pasar dengan ukuran sebesar ini adalah sebuah pasar yang efisien.Uncovered interest parity, yang dituturkan dari teori Fisher Effect, menyatakan bahwa selisih return dari investasi dalam mata uang domestik dengan return dalam mata yang asing akan sama besarnya dengan ekspektasi perubahan nilai tukar kedua mata uang tersebut.Pada saat kondisi uncovered interest parity terpenuhi, seseorang tidak mungkin memperoleh laba yang bersifat spekulasi dengan melakukan carry trading yaitu mengambil posisi long untuk mata uang berbunga tinggi dan short untuk mata uang berbunga rendah, atau transaksi kebalikannya yang disebut reversal carry trading yaitu mengambil posisi long untuk mata uang berbunga rendah dan short untuk mata uang berbunga tinggi. Hal ini dikarenakan menurut teori uncovered interest parity perubahan kurs dua mata uang akan sama dengan perbedaan bunga kedua mata uang tersebut pada maturitas yang sama.Metoda analisa yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisa statistik deskriptif dan analisa statistik inferensial. Pengujian laba spekulasi akan dilakukan dengan uji hipotesa selisih rata-rata dua populasi yang tidak bebas (atau berpasangan).Beberapa penelitian sebelumnya menemukan selalu ada penyimpangan dari uncovered interest parity dan teori ini tidak selalu valid. Hal ini menciptakan peluang untuk melakukan transaksi yang bersifat spekulasi guna memperoleh laba.Tesis ini menguji apakah mungkin untuk memperoleh laba yang bersifat spekulasi dalam pasar valuta asing melalui transaksi spekulasi yang bernama carry trading dan transaksi spekulasi kebalikannya yang bernama reversal carry trading. Untuk itu penulis melakukan pengujian validitas dari uncovered interest parity untuk beberapa kombinasi mata uang yang memiliki interest diferensial yang besar dan dalam maturitas satu bulan, yaitu antara IDR dengan tiga mata uang asing utama EUR, USD dan JPY.Kesimpulan yang diperoleh adalah selama periode pengujian kondisi uncovered interest parity tidak terpenuhi untuk seluruh kombinasi mata uang yang diuji. Walau demikian pengujian apakah spekulasi melalui transaksi carry trading atau transaksi kebalikannya dapat menghasilkan laba menunjukan tidak cukup bukti untuk menyimpulkan transaksi tersebut secara rata-rata menghasilkan laba atau mengakibatkan kerugian.Fluktuasi kurs yang ditunjukan dengan nilai standar deviasi perubahan kurs yang sangat besar menyebabkan pengujian tidak memberikan bukti yang menyatakan transaksi spekulasi tersebut akan menghasilkan laba walau pengujian uncovered interest parity menunjukan adanya peluang untuk melakukan spekulasi.Namun, kesimpulan di atas tidak berarti spekulasi dalam pasar valuta asing harus dijauhi, peluang untuk meraih laba itu ada karena sudah terbukti bahwa kondisi uncovered interest parity tidak terpenuhi tetapi dalam pelaksanaannya memerlukan pemantauan yang kontinyu melalui kebijakan trading yang jelas, penguasaan tehnik dan pengalaman dalam forecasting kurs yang memadai dan tersedianya sistem informasi yang handal.

---

The foreign exchange market is a very large and liquid market in allover the world. Daily trading in foreign exchange amounts to USD 1.5 trillions which are larger than the annual GDP of several developed countries. The question remains if a market of this size and trading volume is in an efficient condition.

The uncovered interest parity, which is derived from Fisher Effect theory, states that any excess or shortage between return from investment in domestic currency and return from same investment in foreign currency will be exactly the same with the expectation of changes in exchange rate of domestic currency against the foreign currency over same period of maturity.

When the condition in uncovered interest parity is fulfilled, it would not be possible to obtain a speculative profit by engaging in a carry trading which is a speculative transaction by simultaneously having a long position in a high interest rate currency and a short position in a low interest rate currency, or a reverse position which is called reversal carry trading where one's is simultaneously having a long position in a low interest rate currency and a short position in a high interest rate currency. The uncovered interest parity theory has concluded that the change in exchange rate between two currencies will be exactly the same with their interest differential.

The analytical methods used in this thesis are analytical method through descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. The profit from speculation is tested through hypothesis testing mean differences of two interrelated populations.

Previous researches have shown that there are deviations from conditions stipulated under the uncovered interest parity theory since numerous tests has indicated that the theory does not always hold. This deviation would indicate that there are opportunities for making a speculative profit.

This thesis aims to test if it is possible to make a speculative profit in the foreign exchange market through so called carry trading or its reversal speculative transaction namely reversal carry trading. We test to what extent interest parity holds between several currencies with large interest differentials over one month maturity, the selected pairs of currencies are IDR with EUR, USD or JPY.

The conclusion is that during the tested period uncovered interest parity does not hold well for all selected pairs of currency. However, the results of the test on carry trading or its reversal transaction have also indicated that there is no sufficient evidence to support a conclusion that these speculative transactions would be in average generating profit or loss.

However, the above conclusion does not mean that a speculation in foreign exchange market should be avoided as we have seen the result of the test has indicated that the parity condition is not valid. This means that there is a possibility for making a profitable speculation. However, the speculation should be managed carefully through clear trading policies, sufficient knowledge and experience in exchange forecasting and reliable information system."

"AbstractThis study observes the speculative element in the price determination and its mean reverting pattern. The existence of speculative element in the Indonesian stock market price determination was proven. Exponential Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) method indicates the non-stationary process of the residuals. There are systematic as well as unsystematic component embedded in the speculative behavior. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) concludes that prices contain volatilities in the short run, but, it will revert to the mean in the long run. Investors? behavior are neutral toward expected gain vis a vis losses in a stock trading ."

"The ontological question of woman’s nature forms the focus of this essay, which develops the theory of “woman-becoming…” to examine how the hegemonic patriarchal discourses and constructs of woman and femininity are subverted and reinterpreted in two speculative short stories by transnational Southeast Asian women writers, namely Intan Paramaditha’s “Beauty and the Seventh Dwarf” (2018) and Isabel Yap’s “Good Girls” (2021). Of interest here are the gender possibilities of the female characters, which uphold women’s freedom, agency, thinking, feeling, creation, narration and expression in the making of herstory—indeed, everywoman’s potential for change and transformation, and to become more than what society expects and demands from woman. Materialized through the resistant and rebellious multitudinous female self and body, woman’s becoming and her gender possibilities ultimately interrogate, vex and unsettle the entrenched sociocultural and politicized meanings, representations and stereotypes of woman’s nature in the Southeast Asian context."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat yang diasumsikan dipengaruhi oleh para pelaku pasar dan spekulan sehingga mengakibatkan adanya bubbles dalam perekonomian. Periode penelitian ini dimulai dari kuartal 4 tahun 1997 sampai dengan kuartal 2 tahun 2008. Ada 3 (tiga) jenis variabel yang digunakan pada penelitian ini yaitu variabel fundamental yang dapat diobservasi langsung, variabel fundamental yang tidak dapat diobservasi langsung, dan variabel ekspektasi nilai tukar. Variabel fundamental yang tidak dapat diobservasi langsung meliputi perbedaan shock to nominal interest rate, perbedaan output gap, dan perbedaan tingkat inflasi antara negara Indonesia dan Amerika Serikat serta risk premium, sedangkan variabel fundamental yang dapat diobservasi secara langsung ialah variabel perbedaan tingkat harga antara negara Indonesia dan Amerika Serikat. Sedangkan fokus pada penelitian ini adalah pada variabel ekspektasi nilai tukar dan risk premium. Pada penelitian ini, untuk mengetahui apakah variabel-variabel pada persamaan jangka panjang memiliki hubungan kointegrasi, digunakan uji kointegrasi Engle-Granger. Di sisi lain, metode Error Correction Model digunakan untuk mengestimasi persamaan jangka pendek. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek variabel ekspektasi nilai tukar dan risk premium mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap nilai tukar rupiah, dimana hubungannya adalah positif. Namun, tidak terjadi speculative bubbles dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek yang mengindikasikan pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah relatif stabil. Berdasarkan hasil tersebut, maka ekspektasi nilai tukar dan risk premium harus menjadi salah satu pertimbangan dalam menentukan kebijakan stabilitas nilai tukar.

---

This main purpose of this research is to analyze the movement of the exchange rate Indonesian rupiah against American dollar, which assumed being affected by the market agents and speculators, resulling bubbles in the economy. The period of this research is within the fourth quarter of 1997 and the second quarter of 2008. There are 3 (three) types of variable that being used in this research. First, fundamental variables that can not be observed directly (differential of shock to nominal interest rate, differential of output gap and differential of inflation between Indonesia and United States, and risk premium). Second, fundamental variables that can be observed directly (differential of price level between Indonesia and United States). The last one is exchange rate expectation variable. Engle-Granger Cointegration Test was used to determine whether in the long run there is cointegrating relationship between variables. On the other hand, Error Correction Model was used to estimate short-run equation. The empirical evidence provided here suggests that both in the long-run and short-run, exchange rate expectations and risk premium have significant impact on exchange rate Rp/USD, where the relationship is positive. However, there is no evidence—both in the long-run and short-run—that speculative bubbles occurred, which indicates the stability of Indonesian exchange rate movement. Based on the results of this research, policy maker should considered exchange rate expectation and risk premium in determining exchange rate stability."

"Lebih dari satu dekade baik ukuran dan kapitalisasi Equity Real Estate Investment Trust (REITs) di pasar Asia mengalami peningkatan yang signifikan diakibatkan karena instrumen tersebut menarik banyak investor dengan perlakuan pajak khusus serta penawaran imbal hasil yang tinggi terutama di negara berkembang (ASEAN). Kenaikan instrumen ini menimbulkan kecurigaan bahwa REITs tidak terhindarkan dari adanya gelembung spekulatif seiringan dengan timbulnya investor maniak yang berambisi untuk mendapatkan keuntungan modal atas investasi tersebut. Selain itu, perubahan variabel makroekonomi mendukung bukti adanya gelembung spekulatif. Studi ini membahas mengenai karakteristik dan alasan keberadaan gelembung spekulatif khususnya di kawasan ASEAN menggunakan tiga negara termasuk Singapura, Malaysia, dan Thailand sebagai pelopor pasar Equity REITs. Studi ini menyiratkan dua metode dengan penggunaan data bulanan yang dilakukan dengan uji General Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) untuk keberadaan gelembung Spekulatif dan Restricted VAR (VECM) dalam menyelidiki kausalitas jangka pendek dan jangka panjang dari kekuatan makroekonomi yang dipilih termasuk : Nilai tukar, Suku bunga , dan Tingkat inflasi. Temuan penulis menunjukkan dalam uji GSADF, pasar REITs Thailand menunjukkan dua gelembung sedangkan Singapura dan Malaysia tidak membuktikan keberadaannya. Selain itu, kemampuan variabel makroekonomi dalam menjelaskan pengembalian REIT melalui estimasi VECM terdiri dari bukti bahwa nilai tukar mempengaruhi perubahan pengembalian REITs dalam jangka pendek untuk semua negara uji. Selain itu, harga REITs Malaysia dan Thailand juga dipengaruhi oleh perubahan tingkat Inflasi dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Terlebih lagi, suku bunga menunjukkan pengaruh yang tidak signifikan terhadap pengembalian harga REITs. Oleh karena itu, berinvestasi di REITs mencakup risiko kerugian melalui bukti gelembung, risiko mata uang, dan risiko inflasi yang menunjukkan REITs adalah instrumen Inflasi non-lindung nilai.

---

Over a decade both size and market capitalization of Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the Asian market experienced significant increases as the instrument attracts more investors in regards it contains special tax treatment and offering high yields especially in Developing countries (ASEAN). Otherwise, the increase immerses suspicion that the instruments are inevitable from the existence of speculative bubble explained by a mania to earn capital gain on the investment. In addition, the changes in macroeconomics variables support evidence of the existence of a speculative bubble. This study attempt to address characteristics and reasons for speculative bubble specifically within the ASEAN region including Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand as the pioneer of the Equity REITs market. This studies implies two methods using monthly data conducted with General Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test for the existence of Speculative bubbles and Restricted VAR (VECM) in investigating Short and Long- Run Causality from chosen macroeconomics forces: Exchange rate, interest rate, and Inflation rate. Author's finding shows within the GSADF test, Thailand REITs market indicates two bubbles whereas Singapore and Malaysia do not prove their existence. Moreover, the ability of macroeconomics variables in explaining REITs return through VECM estimation is comprised by evidence that the Exchange rate affects changes in REITs return in short run for all countries. In addition, both Malaysia and Thailand REITs prices also affected by Inflation rate changes in the short and long run. Otherwise, interest rate shows a non-significant effect on REITs prices return. Therefore, investing in REITs includes a risk of loss through evidence of bubbles, currency risk, and inflation risk exhibiting REITs is a non-hedge Inflation instrument."

"ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh tujuan penggunaan derivatif, terhadap tingkat penghindaran pajak. Dengan menggunakan sampel perusahaan publik non-finansial di Bursa Efek Indonesia selama tahun 2012-2014, penulis memisahkan antara perusahan yang menggunakan instrumen derivatif sebagai spekulasi dan sebagai lindung nilai hedging . Hasil penelitian menunjukkan perusahaan yang menggunakan instrumen derivatif sebagai spekulasi memiliki tingkat penghindaran pajak yang lebih tinggi daripada yang menggunakannya sebagai lindung nilai. Penelitian ini juga menganalisis peran tata kelola perusahaan dalam memoderasi hubungan penggunaan instrumen derivatif dan penghindaran pajak. Hasilnya, tata kelola perusahaan yang baik tidak terbukti dapat mengurangi perbedaan tingkat penghindaran pajak antara perusahaan yang menggunakan instrumen derivatif sebagai spekulasi dan sebagai lindung nilai.

---

ABSTRACTThis research aims to analyze the effects of financial derivatives utilization on corporate tax avoidance. Using the data of non financial publicly traded company in Indonesian Stock Exchange between 2012 2014, this research classifies a derivative user as speculator and effective hedger. The result shows that speculator companies have more aggressive tax avoidance than the effective hedgers. This research also analyzes the moderation role of good corporate governance implementation to the relation between derivatives utilization and corporate tax avoidance level. The result shows that a good corporate governance implementation has no significant effects to reduce the tax avoidance gap between speculator and effective hedger companies."

"A detailed combined geological and geophysical study in North Sumatra basin has shown that prospective formations for shale play containing gas sweet spots are found to be shales from Bampo, Belumai, and Baong Formations. Bampo Formations Exhibits low shale gas potential with very low to medium in organic material contents, maturity index of immature to mature, and moderate brittleness. Rocks within the formation tent to be reactive to highly reactive to water, with a moderate degree of swelling capacity. Porosity varies within 5.8-7.4% with permeability raging from 0.37 to 3.2 mD. Sweet spots in the formation found around Basilam-l and Securai-l wells occupy about 21% of the formation. On the other hand, Belumai Formation shows moderate to good shale gas potential, with low to high organic material contents, immature to mature levels of maturity, and moderately brittle to brittle. Sweet spots areas in the formation fpund around the two wells are about 29% of the formation. For Baong Formation, analysis reveals moderate to good shale gas potential, with low to medium contents of organic material, immature to mature in maturity index, moderately brittle to brittle in brittleness, and tendency of being reactive to highly reactive to water but with low degree of swelling capacity. Sweet spots in the formation found around two wells occupies are roughly 11% of the total formation volume in the area. Basin modeling leading to gas resources estimation for Baong, Belumai, and Bampo Formations has led to estimated volumes of 6, 379 TCF, 16, 994 TCF, and 25,024 TCF, respectively, with a total amount of 48, 397 TCF. The resources figures are speculative in nature and do not incorporate any certainty and efficiency factors."