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Abstrak :
Keputusan strategis investasi pada proyek infrastruktur seperti pembangunan PLTN menjadi sangat krusial dan membutuhkan analisis yang mendalam. Hal ini terkait dengan karakteristik proyek infrastruktur yang sangat rentan terhadap ketidakpastian. Penelitian ditujukan untuk mengetahui kelayakan finansial proyek PLTN dengan memasukkan sejumlah unsur ketidakpastian melalui pendekatan probabilistik. Teknologi PLTN AP1000 dan PLTN OPR1000 digunakan sebagai PLTN referensi. Analisis probabilistik dilakukan dengan teknik montecarlo yang mensimulasikan keterkaitan di antara variabel-variabel ketidakpastian dan dilihat pengaruhnya terhadap output (LUEC, NPV dan IRR). Analisis ini terbukti mampu memberikan berbagai gambaran kemungkinan output dan variabilitas risiko sehingga dapat memberikan rekomendasi bagi investor dalam melakukan keputusan investasi.

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Strategic investment decisions on infrastucture project such as NPP development are crucial and require careful analysis and consideration. These are due to the characteristics of infrastructure projects that are vulnerable to uncertainties. This study aims to analyze financial feasibility of NPP project by including amount of uncertainties by using probabilistic approach. AP1000 and OPR1000 reactor were used as reference plant. Probabilistic Analysis were done with montecarlo technique which is simulating relationship between uncertainty variables and be seen their influence to output (LUEC, NPV and IRR). This analysis proved to give many outputs and risks variabilities so that it can give recommendation especially for the investors to do the investment decision.

Abstrak :
ABSTRAK
Dalam penelitian ini, efek ketidakpastian tanah dianalisis secara probabilistik untuk beberapa kondisi geometri lereng. Geometri lereng yang yang berbeda di representasikan dalam sudut 27, 34, 45 dan 63 pada ketinggian 5, 10 dan 15 m. Analisis probabilistik stabilitas lereng dilakukan menggunakan SLOPE/W utuk menggambarkan pola keruntuhan dan probabilitas kegagalan yang dimiliki oleh setiap bentuk geometri. Hasil probabilistik digunakan dalam mencari faktor yang mempegaruhi pengambilan keputusan bentuk geometri lereng dengan meninjau keadaan lereng dari konstruksi hingga pengoperasiannya dengan perhitungan Expected Monetary Value EMV . Pendekatan analisis decision making memberikan gambaran bagaimana pengaruh konsekuensi dari setiap pemilihan keputusan geometri lereng dilihat dari biaya.

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ABSTRACT
In this study, soil uncertainties were analyzed probabilistically in different slope geometries. Different slope geometries are represented in 27, 34, 45 and 63 angles at 5m, 10m and 15 m height. The probabilistic analysis of slope stability is conducted with SLOPE W to describe the slip surface and the probability of failure possessed by slope geometries. Probabilistic results are used to know the factors that influences the decision making on slope geometries considering its state of the construction until operation with Expected Monetary Value EMV calculations. The decision making analysis approach gives an overview of how the consequences of slope geometries determined the decision made by its cost.

Abstrak :
This book presents state-of-the-art probabilistic methods for the reliability analysis and design of engineering products and processes. It seeks to facilitate practical application of probabilistic analysis and design by providing an authoritative, in-depth, and practical description of what probabilistic analysis and design is and how it can be implemented. The text is packed with many practical engineering examples (e.g., electric power transmission systems, aircraft power generating systems, and mechanical transmission systems) and exercise problems. It is an up-to-date, fully illustrated reference suitable for both undergraduate and graduate engineering students, researchers, and professional engineers who are interested in exploring the fundamentals, implementation, and applications of probabilistic analysis and design methods.

Abstrak :
Dalam proses mendesain struktur geoteknik, perlu diperhatikan mengenai ketidakpastian parameter kuat geser pada tanah. Ketidakpastian tersebut dapat mempengaruhi stabilitas struktur dan menyebabkan keluarnya biaya berlebih akibat kegagalan yang terjadi. Pada penelitian ini, akan disajikan proses pemilihan struktur galian pada lingkungan perkotaan dengan memperhatikan ketidakpastian parameter tanah yang dihitung menggunakan metode probabilistik. Struktur galian yang akan dipertimbangkan adalah galian lereng terbuka dan galian dengan dinding penahan tipe sheet pile dan secant pile. Proses pemilihan struktur galian menggunakan analisis Expected Monetary Value dengan mempertimbangkan biaya pembebasan lahan, biaya konstruksi, biaya perbaikan akibat terjadi kegagalan, dan kehilangan pendapatan akibat terjadi kegagalan. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa dalam proses pengambilan keputusan sangat dipengaruhi oleh faktor biaya pembebasan lahan, diikuti dengan faktor biaya kehilangan pendapatan, biaya konstruksi dan biaya rekonstruksi. ......In the process of designing geotechnical structures, it is important to consider the uncertainty of soil shear strength parameters. This uncertainty can influence the soil structure stability and resulting in unexpected expenses due to structural failure. This research will provide a decision making process to choose which type of slope excavation structure in urban areas by considering the uncertainty of soil parameters using probabilistic method. Slope excavation structures which will be considered are open-cut slopes, excavation with sheet pile and secant pile retaining wall. The decision making process will be calculated by using Expected Monetary Value analysis which considers land acquisition cost, construction cost, reconstruction cost caused by failure and revenue lost caused by failure. The result shows that the biggest cost which affected the decision is the land acquisition cost, followed by revenue lost cost, construction cost, and reconstruction cost.