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Abstrak :
[ABSTRAK
Tujuan dari tesis ini adalah untuk mengetahui sejauh mana pengaruh faktor-faktor identitas dan identifikasi politik masyarakat terhadap rendahnya perolehan suara parpol Islam. Selain itu juga untuk mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor perilaku apa saja dan interaksi politik parpol Islam seperti apa yang berpengaruh terhadap menurunnya elektabilitas, serta apakah perubahan landscape politik nasional dalam sejarah politik Indonesia berpengaruh terhadap strategi parpol Islam untuk mengantisipasi penurunan elektabilitas tersebut. Pemilu 2014 menjadi potret terbaru bagaimana partai Islam kembali mengulangi sejarah yang sama, yakni tidak mampu mendobrak dominasi partai-partai nasionalis dalam perolehan suara pemilu di Indonesia. Kekalahan ini menghidupkan lagi wacana sekaligus perdebatan mengenai berakhirnya politik aliran di Indonesia. Dalam penelitian ini, ditemukan bahwa politik aliran itu tidak betul-betul berakhir. Meskipun pengaruhnya terhadap pemilih tidak sekuat Pemilu 1955, namun politik aliran tetap bereksistensi. Tentu saja saat ini trikotomi Geertz, yang membagi umat Islam atas santri, priyayi, dan abangan, tidak terlalu relevan. Sebab, umat Islam sudah semakin rasional dalam memilih, tak terkecuali kaum santri. Di sisi lain, partai politik sendiri cenderung bergeser ke tengah. Partai-partai nasionalis saat ini tidak “anti” Islam. Bahkan partai seperti PDIP, Gerindra, dan Golkar sudah punya sayap organisasi Islam. Sebaliknya, partai Islam seperti PPP dan PKS sudah sering menyatakan diri sebagai partai terbuka, sebagai respon dari asumsi bahwa politik aliran sudah mencair dan bahkan berakhir. Selain persoalan tersebut, dalam tesis ini juga dikemukakan mengenai prospek partai Islam, yang di antaranya dengan mengacu pada hasil suara partai Islam dalam Pemilu 2014 dan posisinya ketika dikonfrontir dengan berbagai hasil survei yang menyebutkan bahwa partai Islam pasca Pemilu 2014 akan suram. Tesis ini menggunakan teori partai politik dan teori ideologi, bagaimana teori tersebut melihat partai Islam di Indonesia. Konsep-konsep, baik dari Geertz yang membagi umat Islam di Jawa yang terdiri dari santri, abangan, dan priyayi, maupun dari Herbert Faith juga menjadi salah satu pembanding, apakah konsep-konsep tersebut masih relevan dalam melihat politik aliran dalam Pemilu 2014.

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ABSTRACT
The purpose of this thesis is to determine the extent of the influence of factors of identity and political identification of society to the low number of votes of Islamic political parties. In addition, to identify the factors and interaction behavior any Islamic political parties as to what effect on decreasing elektabilitas, and whether changes in the national political landscape in Indonesia's political history affect the strategy of Islamic political parties to anticipate the decline elektabilitas. Election of 2014 became the latest portrait how Islamic parties reiterated the same history, which is not able to break the dominance of nationalist parties in the history of vote elections in Indonesia. This defeat at the same discourse revive debate about the end of the flow in Indonesian politics. In this study, it was found that the flow politics not really ended. Although its influence on voters is not as strong as the 1955 election, but the political stream remains to exist. Of course, this time the trichotomy of Geertz, which divides the muslim students, gentry, and abangan, not too relevant. Therefore, the muslim students are increasingly rational in choosing, not to mention the students. On the other hand, the political parties themselves are likely to shift to the center. Nationalist parties today are not "anti" Islam. Even parties like PDIP, Gerindra, and Golkar already have Islamic organization‟s wings. In contrast, Islamist parties like PPP and PKS have often refers to himself as an open party, with the assumption that the political stream has ended. In this thesis also expressed about the prospects for Islamic parties, some of which with reference to the Islamic party‟s vote in the 2014 election and its position when confronted with various results of many survey say that the Islamist party after the 2014 election will be bleak. This thesis uses the theory of political parties and the theory of ideology, how these theories see Islamic parties in Indonesia. Concepts, both of Geertz that divides Muslims in Java, which consists of students, abangan, and gentry, and of Herbert She also became one of the comparison, whether these concepts are still relevant in view of the political streams in the 2014 election, The purpose of this thesis is to determine the extent of the influence of factors of identity and political identification of society to the low number of votes of Islamic political parties. In addition, to identify the factors and interaction behavior any Islamic political parties as to what effect on decreasing elektabilitas, and whether changes in the national political landscape in Indonesia's political history affect the strategy of Islamic political parties to anticipate the decline elektabilitas. Election of 2014 became the latest portrait how Islamic parties reiterated the same history, which is not able to break the dominance of nationalist parties in the history of vote elections in Indonesia. This defeat at the same discourse revive debate about the end of the flow in Indonesian politics. In this study, it was found that the flow politics not really ended. Although its influence on voters is not as strong as the 1955 election, but the political stream remains to exist. Of course, this time the trichotomy of Geertz, which divides the muslim students, gentry, and abangan, not too relevant. Therefore, the muslim students are increasingly rational in choosing, not to mention the students. On the other hand, the political parties themselves are likely to shift to the center. Nationalist parties today are not "anti" Islam. Even parties like PDIP, Gerindra, and Golkar already have Islamic organization‟s wings. In contrast, Islamist parties like PPP and PKS have often refers to himself as an open party, with the assumption that the political stream has ended. In this thesis also expressed about the prospects for Islamic parties, some of which with reference to the Islamic party‟s vote in the 2014 election and its position when confronted with various results of many survey say that the Islamist party after the 2014 election will be bleak. This thesis uses the theory of political parties and the theory of ideology, how these theories see Islamic parties in Indonesia. Concepts, both of Geertz that divides Muslims in Java, which consists of students, abangan, and gentry, and of Herbert She also became one of the comparison, whether these concepts are still relevant in view of the political streams in the 2014 election]