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Abstrak :
Industri nasional mengalami perlambatan pertumbuhan dan rendahnya daya saing yang diduga disebabkan oleh harga gas bumi yang tinggi. Pemerintah melakukan intervensi pada harga gas bumi melalui Kebijakan Harga Gas Bumi Tertentu (HGBT) sebagaimana diatur pada Perpres No. 121 Tahun 2020 tentang Penetapan Harga Gas Bumi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak dari Kebijakan HGBT pada perekonomian nasional dengan mempertimbangkan penurunan penerimaan negara sebagai kompensasi atas turunnya harga gas bumi pada industri. Dengan menggunakan model CGE, analisis dilakukan pada berbagai indikator perekonomian. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa terdapat penurunan GDP dalam jangka pendek sebesar 0,076% dan kenaikan GDP dalam jangka panjang sebesar 0,004%. ......National industry is facing slowing growth and low competitiveness, which is thought to be caused by high natural gas prices. Government intervenes in natural gas prices through the Certain Natural Gas Price Policy or “Kebijakan HGBT” as regulated in Presidential Regulation No. 121 of 2020 concerning Natural Gas Price Determination. This study aims to analyze the impact of HGBT Policy on the national economy by considering the decline in state revenues as compensation for the decline in natural gas prices in the industry. Using CGE model, analysis is carried out on various economic indicators. The results of the analysis show that there is a decrease in GDP in the short term by 0.076% and an increase in GDP in the long term by 0.004%.

Abstrak :
This study aims (1) to construct an Econometric Input-Output Model for Indonesia, that emphasizes the linkage between sectors, and (2) to analyze the impact of budget allocation on development expenditure to Indonesian's economy in 2002. The model, constructed by combining the advantages of an input-output model and an econometric model, is called the Indonesian Econometric Input-Output Model or "Model Input-Output Ekonometrika Indonesia" (MIENA). MIENA consists of 112 dynamic simultaneous equations which utilize secondary data from 19SO-20UO. The equation parameters are estimated by using a combination of three estimation methods: (1) Ordinary Least Squares, (2) First Order of Autoregressive and (3) Second Order of Autoregressive. The model is validated by the Gauss-Siedel Method, it is then used for protections and policy impact analysis simulations on budget development expenditure and world economic conditions. The study finds that the impact of budget reallocation for development expenditure (final demand, output, income, and sectoral employment) is better than the budget allocation for development expenditure in the National Budgetary Plan (RAP3N) for 2002. The plantation sector contributed the most to supporting output multiplier and high income. The food, beverages, and tobacco industries contributed the most to yield a high employment multiplier.