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Abstrak :
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi data pada level makroekonomi untuk mengetahui arah pergerakan dari sektor perbankan di Indonesia melalui seri acuan pertumbuhan kredit, pertumbuhan pembiayaan, non performing loan serta non performing finance yang diharapkan mampu menjadi sinyal awal perkembangan sektor perbankan. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan OECD dalam pembentukan composite leading indicator. Penentuan titik balik diukur dengan bulan dan dilakukan dengan mengikuti kriteria Bry-Boschan dengan periode penelitian dari Januari 2012 ndash; September 2017.Dari data yang digunakan masing-masing seri acuan memiliki kombinasi variabel pembentuk leading indicatornya. Pertumbuhan kredit memiiki 10 variabel pembentuk composite leading indeksnya, pertumbuhan pembiyaan memiliki 4 variabel yang membentuk komposit indeksnya, CLI non perfoming loan dibentuk dari 13 variabel serta non performing loan ditentukan CLInya dengan 9 variabel.

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This research focuses on growth of credit and financing in banking sector to enhance decision making process. This paper present composite leading indicator for banking sector using four reference series which are credit growth, islamic financing growth, non performing loan, and . Adopting OECD methodology to construct these indicator and using Bry Boschan criteria to predict turning points of these reference series.The result show that during January 2012 until September 2017, each composite constructed differently. Credit growth composite index constructed from 10 individual leading indicator,financing growth consist 4 individual leading indikator, non performing loan compostie index constructed by 13 leading indicator, and contsructed by 9 individual variabels.

Abstrak :
The 1997-1999 currency crises series was a major shock to Indonesian economy. The crises had damaged Indonesian economy, since economic growth declined sharply and Indonesian banking system was in collapse. Should the monetary authority and business practitioners anticipated the currency crises, the social loss caused by it could be reduced. Learning from past mistakes, an early warning system to predict the possibility of currency crises occurrence in the near future is needed. This study applies the leading indicator approach to construct early warning system of currency crisis for Indonesia, both by using individual and composite leading indicators. A currency crises in this study is defined as any observation of exchange market pressure {EMI') over EMPs mean plus one time of EMPs standard deviation. Meanwhile, the threshold level for indicator's signal issuance is set to leave 20% best observations. Each indicator's performance is measured by using three criteria: (I) percentage of correctly called crises; (2) adjusted noise to signal ratio; and (3) probability of crisis following a signal. Results from this study show that there are five best individual indicators that can fulfil all of the criteria: (1) Rupiah REER misalignment over its trend value; (2) Deposit Money Banks' foreign assets growth; (3) financial account surplus; (4) base money growth; and (5) financial account surplus to GDP ratio. From the best individual indicators, 17 best composite indicators can be constructed. The first best composite indicator is the "VW', which is a direct combination of "Rupiah REER misalignment over its trend" and "Deposit Money Banks' foreign assets growth".

Abstrak :
ABSTRAK
Kemampuan untuk memprediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi sangat penting bagi investor dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk investasi. Namun sering kali investor tidak tahu bagaimana caranya untuk memprediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi di masa yang akan datang. Salah satu alat yang bisa digunakan untuk memprediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah leading indicator. Dalam penelitian penelitian di negara maju telah dibuktikan bahwa salah satu leading indicator yang bisa digunakan untuk memprediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah harga saham. Karya Akhir ini membahas apakah indeks harga saham gabungan dan indeks saham industri sektoral di Indonesia bisa menjadi leading indicator bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Kesimpulan dalam Karya Akhir ini menunjukkan bahwa penggunaan indeks harga saham gabungan baik IHSG maupun LQ-45 tidak cukup signifikan untuk memprediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa indeks harga saham gabungan harus digunakan bersama indeks saham industri sektoral untuk bisa memprediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi secara tepat. Karya Akhir ini menemukan bahwa model leading indicator yang terbaik bagi perekonomian Indonesia, model regresi tersebut adalah model regresi dengan menggunakan variabel LQ-45 dan indeks industri pertambangan. Pertumbuhan industri pertambangan bisa menjadi leading indicator bagi perekonomian Indonesia disebabkan karena ekspektasi investor yang tinggi akan kinerja industri pertambangan di masa yang akan datang berhubung dengan kenaikan harga komoditas dunia. Ini sesuai dengan teori rational expectation yang menyatakan bahwa ekspektasi investor akan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan harga saham, dan akhirnya akan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi secara keseluruhan.

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ABSTRACT
The ability to predict economic growth is a ?must have? for financial investors as it aids investors in making the right investment decision. However, often investors are not equipped with the right tools to predict growth correctly. One of the tools which can help investors is the leading indicator. Various researches in developed countries have proven that stock price is one leading indicator that can be used to predict economic growth. This thesis will discuss whether composite stock index and industry stock index can be the leading indicators for Indonesia economic growth. The result of this thesis reflects that the composite stock index, be it IHSG or LQ-45, are not sufficient for predicting Indonesia economic growth. The analysis will show that the composite stock index should be used together with the industry stock index in order to predict economic growth aptly. This thesis establishes that the best regression model for the leading indicator of Indonesian economy is the regression model using the variable of 45 most liquid stocks listed in Jakarta Stock Exchange composite index (LQ-45) with the mining industry index. The growth of mining industry can be the leading indicator for Indonesia economic growth because of financial investors? optimist expectation on industry performance that is correlated with the increase in world commodity price. This finding supports the rational expectation theory that investors? high expectation will influence the movement of stock price, and eventually affects the growth of the whole economy.