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Abstrak :
Sesuai dengan Nationally Determined Contribution, pemerintah Indonesia telah berkomitmen untuk mengurangi emisi gas rumah kaca sebanyak 29% pada tahun 2030. Namun, kondisi saat ini menunjukkan bahwa masih ada dilema di sektor energi sebagai salah satu sektor dengan kontribusi emisi GRK tertinggi. Emisi GRK di sektor tersebut pun masih diproyeksi untuk terus meningkat akibat naiknya produksi dan konsumsi batubara. PT X, sebagai salah satu perusahaan tambang terbesar di Indonesia, ikut berkomitmen untuk mengurangi emisi GRKnya dengan cara mengonversi pembangkit listrik yang saat ini menggunakan batubara sebagai bahan bakar dengan pembangkit listrik berbahan bakar gas alam. Studi ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui jumlah emisi GRK yang akan dikurangi apabila PT X melakukan transisi energi ke gas alam untuk keperluan pembangkit listriknya. Penelitian ini juga bertujuan untuk mengetahui risiko apa saja yang perlu diperhatikan saat transisi energi tersebut. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa akan ada pengurangan emisi GRK sebesar 49.5% jika dilakukan transisi energi. Risiko yang terlibat meliputi risiko finansial, kebijakan, bencana alam, lingkungan & sosial, dan operasional. ......According to the Nationally Determined Contribution, the Indonesian government vowed to reduce their GHG emissions by 29% by 2030. However, the current situation shows a dilemma where the energy sector, one of the highest contributors of GHG emissions, is facing a rising trend of emissions. The rise is motivated by the increasing production as well as consumption of coal. PT X, as one of the biggest mining companies in the country, is looking to convert their coal plant to a natural gas one as part of their commitment to decrease their GHG emissions by 30% by 2030 to support the same cause. Therefore, this research attempts to find out how much emission reduction would be realized with the plant conversion, along with the risks involved in the process using Life Cycle Assessment. The result shows that 49.5% of the GHG emissions will be reduced. Financial, regulatory, natural disaster, environmental & social, and operational risks have been identified during the energy transition process.

Abstrak :
This paper primarily attempts to detect the trend in the present upshots of global warming temperature data. It has been done through the estimation of the long memory fractional parameter using a simulation technique in the presence of additive outilers which stands as wild observations generated in the atmosphere due to global warming. Then the study investigates empirically the impact global warming on the particular aspect of global agricultural production. Based on Monte Carlo simulations, a data generating process is applied here additive outliers are generated in a discrate way. Observed facts reveal that additive outliers affect the bias and the MSE of the estimated fractional parameter. The size of the additive outliers in data generating process has also important effects on the estimated fractional parameter depending on the value of true fractional parameter. The result exhibits a non-trend or a natural cyclical variability influenced by a stochastic process in the case of climate change behavior with wild observations (outilers) that produce contradictory outcome of profound uncertainties againts the case of true world temperature data trend. The results of empirical investigations assert that in the late 21 century unabated global warming would have a negative impact on global agricultural production in the aggregate and the impact could be severe if carbon fertilization benefits (enhancements of yields in a carbon-rich environment) do not materialize, especially if water scarcity limits irrigation. In addition, if warming would not halt in the 2080s, but would continue on a path toward still higher global temperature in the composition of agricultural damage could be more severe. The study also shows that the composition of agricultural effects is likely to be seriously unfavorable to developing countries with the most severe losses in Africa, Latin America and India.