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"Economic crisis which happened several years ago has caused many impacts to Indonesia. One of these impacts is a huge amount of government debt. Particularly, the government debt whether from domestic or foreign is one of the instruments to finance government expenditure which can not be fulfilled entirely by revenues from taxes. However, using the government debt to fund the government expenditure has consequences for the government to pay-back not only for the interest rate but also for the principal of debt which have maturity-date in the future.

The purpose of this study is to analyze how far the development of the government debt dynamic from both domestic and _foreign is correlated to _fiscal sustainability. This study uses a case of Indonesia in period 1980-2005 which is divided into three periods: before crisis (1980-1997), crisis (1998-2000), and after crisis (2001-2005). In this study, we use Branson (1992) to analyze the government debt dynamic. In addition, we also use different approaches to have several comparisons in our analysis by Hamilton and Flavia ( 1936), Wilcox (1989), and Trehan and Walsh (1991). Besides that, we also conduct projection of the ratio of government revenue to GDP which is needed to support in decreasing of the ratio of government debt to GDP in tire middle-term until 2010.

In summary, this study shows that after the crisis, the dynamic movement of the government debt is decreasing continuously. Furthermore, the government debt and the primary deficit still stand on the sustainable path, or the right track. Equally important, in the middle-term, the ratio of government revenue to GDP is still needed to maintain in decreasing of the government debt front year to year. Generally, this study shows that fiscal condition in indonesia after the crisis reflects sustainable and suitable to the assumption of Non-Ponzi Game."

"This study analyzes the effect of Fiscal Capacity Factors, namely LocalGovernment Revenues (PAD), Personnel Expenses, General AllocationFund (DAU), Shared Revenues from Central Government (DBH), OtherLocal Revenues (LP), Poverty Level and Debt Restructuring Policy againstLocal Government Debt Repayment Performance. Partial Least Square(PLS) method is used to analyze pooled data from 2003 to 2013 tocompare the condition of loan performance five years before and fiveyears after the debt restructuring policy of 2008. Panel data consisted of45 Local Governments following debt restructuring policy. The resultsshow that the Fiscal Capacity Factors and Debt Restructuring Policysimultaneously have significant effects on the Local Government DebtRepayments Performance. On the other hand, fiscal capacity factors,namely PAD, DBH, LP and BP (partially), have a significant effect on theLocal Government Debt Repayment Performance, while DAU and povertylevel have no affect on Local Government Debt Repayment Performance.The determinant value of R2 = 0,469 indicates the relationship betweendependent and independent variables, explaining 46,9% of the models,while the remaining 53,1% is contributed by other variables notexplained in this study.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh faktor-faktorKapasitas Fiskal yaitu Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD), Belanja Pegawai(BP), Dana Alokasi Umum (DAU), Dana Bagi Hasil (DBH), Lain-lainPendapatan yang Sah (LP), Kemiskinan dan Restrukturisasi Pinjamanterhadap Kinerja Pembayaran Pinjaman Pemerintah Daerah. Teknikanalisis dengan Partial Least Square (PLS) menggunakan data paneldari tahun 2003 sampai dengan 2013. Pemilihan data dimaksudkanuntuk membandingkan kondisi pinjaman 5 tahun sebelum dan 5 tahunsesudah restrukturisasi pinjaman, dimana kebijakan restrukturisasipinjaman diimplementasikan tahun 2008. Data panel terdiri dari 45Kabupaten/ Kota yang memiliki pinjaman dalam restrukturisasi. Hasilpenelitian menunjukkan bahwa Kapasitas Fiskal dan RestrukturisasiPinjaman secara simultan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap KinerjaPembayaran Pinjaman Pemerintah Daerah. Secara parsial faktor-faktorKapasitas Fiskal menunjukkan bahwa PAD, DBH, LP, dan BPberpengaruh signifikan terhadap Kinerja Pembayaran Pinjamansedangkan DAU dan Kemiskinan tidak berpengaruh terhadap KinerjaPembayaran Pinjaman. Nilai determinan R2 = 0,469 menunjukkanbahwa hubungan variabel dependen dan independen dalam penelitianini hanya dapat menjelaskan sebesar 46,9%, sedangkan sisanyasebesar 53,1% merupakan kontribusi dari variabel lain yang tidakdibahas dalam penelitian ini."

"Kesinambungan fiskal telah menjadi perhatian di seluruh dunia. Banyak negara menderita karena hutang publik meroket. Dalam kasus Indonesia, Kuncoro (2011) telah meneliti keberlanjutan APBN pusat dan menyimpulkan bahwa APBN tidak sustainable. Terkait dengan itu, kami menggunakan (1) analisis dinamika utang, (2) analisis keberlanjutan fiskal dan (3) analisis dengan memamsukkan faktor ketidakpastian. Akhirnya, kita menyimpulkan pertama, faktor penyebab peningkatan utang pemerintah adalah depresiasi rupiah dan program bailout. Kedua, kami berpendapat bahwa utang pemerintah sustainable. Ketiga, risiko nilai tukar tidak akan menjadi risiko yang berpengaruh di masa depan.

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Fiscal sustainability has become a concern around the world. Many countries suffer because public debt is rocketing. In Indonesia's case, Kuncoro (2011) has examined central budget sustainability and concluded that the state budget was very vulnerable. Associated with that, we used (1) debt dynamics analysis, (2) sustainability analysis based on life time budget constraint, and (3) analysis by introducing uncertainty. Finally, we justify that the factors causing an increase of government debt were rupiah depreciation and bailout program. Second, we argue that government debt is unsustainable. Third, exchange rate risk will not be an influential risk in the future."

"Lindung nilai adalah suatu strategi yang diciptakan untuk mengurangi timbulnya risiko bisnis yang tidak terduga. Transaksi lindung nilai adalah transaksi yang dilakukan oleh Pemerintah dengan counterparty , dalam rangka mengendalikan risiko fluktuasi beban pembayaran bunga dan kewajiban pokok utang dan/atau melindungi posisi nilai utang, dari risiko yang timbul maupun yang diperkirakan akan timbul sebagai akibat volatilitas faktor-faktor pasar keuangan. Transaksi lindung nilai dilakukan berdasarkan Peraturan Menteri Keuangan Nomor 12/PMK.08/2013 Tentang Transaksi Lindung Nilai (Hedging) Dalam Pengelolaan Utang Pemerintah. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah studi kepustakaan yang bersifat yuridis-normatif. Hasil penelitian menyarankan agar pengelolaan lindung nilai utang harus dapat memperkirakan nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap valuta asing ke depannya. Pengaturan risiko keuangan negara seharusnya diatur secara terperinci, jelas dan pasti, sehingga memungkinkan pengelolaan utang pemerintah dilakukan secara transparan, akuntabel dan memiliki kepastian hukum.

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Hedging is a strategy created to reduce enpredictable business risks. Hedging transaction is a transaction conducted by government with it counterpart in order to manage risks due to fluctuation in interest rate and principal amount and/or to protect the debt from predictable risks due to market volatility. Hedging transaction is conducted under Minister of Finance Regulation Number 12/PMK.08/2013 regarding Hedging Transaction in Government Debt Management. Research approached used in preparing this thesis was juridical-normative literature-based study. Result of the research suggests that hedging management shall be able to predict future Rupiah exchange rate to other currencies. Financial risk management shall be regulated in detail, elaborative, and certain, in order to enable government debt management to be transparent, accountable, and providing legal certainty."