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"ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk menentukan faktor makro ekonomi yang mempengaruhi transisi rating menggunakan Macro Simulation Approach, menentukan perbedaan pengaruh faktor makro ekonomi antara rating investment grade dan non-investment grade, serta menentukan keakuratan dan konsistensi dari model tersebut. Data yang digunakan adalah rating PEFINDO periode 1995-2012 sedangkan faktor makro ekonomi yang digunakan adalah tingkat pertumbuhan PDB (GDP growth), IHSG, tingkat inflasi, tingkat suku bunga pinjaman, SBI dan nilai tukar USD-IDR. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, GDP growth secara signifikan mempengaruhi transisi rating A ke A, BB ke BBB, dan A ke D, IHSG secara signifikan mempengaruhi transisi rating AAA ke AA dan A ke AA, tingkat suku bunga pinjaman mempengaruhi transisi rating AA ke AA, BBB ke BBB, BBB ke BB, BBB ke D, dan BB ke D, sedangkan nilai tukar USD-IDR mempengaruhi transisi rating BBB ke A. Dilihat dari faktor makro ekonomi dan jumlah transisi rating yang dipengaruhi oleh faktor tersebut, tidak terdapat perbedaan antara rating investment grade dan non-investment grade. Tingkat keakuratan model dapat diukur dengan nilai adj. R2 model regresi yang bervariasi antar transisi rating yakni berkisar antara 0,0069 ? 0,7176. Berdasarkan perhitungan Likelihood Ratio dan ANOVA dengan tingkat keyakinan 95%, model terbukti konsisten selama 17 tahun periode.

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ABSTRACT

The aim of this study is to determine macro economic factors that influenced rating transition by using Macro Simulation Approach, to determine the difference of the effects between investment grade dan non-investment grade rating. This study is using data of PEFINDO?s rating portfolio during 1995-2012 while macro economic factors that has been used are GDP growth, IHSG, inflation rate, lending rate, SBI dan USD-IDR exchange rates. Based on our study, GDP growth significantly influenced rating transition of A to A, BB to BBB and A to D, IHSG signficantly influenced rating transition of AAA to AA dan A to AA, lending rate influenced rating transition of AA to AA, BBB to BBB, BBB to BB, BBB to D dan BB to D, while USD-IDR exchange rates influenced rating transition of BBB to A. Based on macro economic factors and number of rating transition influenced by them, there is no difference between investment grade and non-investment grade rating. Acuracy level of the model can be measured by adj. R2 value of regression model, which vary among rating transition between 0.0069 to 0.7176. Based on Likelihood Ratio and ANOVA with 95% level of confidence, models is considerably consistent within 17 years periods."

"Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh faktor sosial dan makro ekonomi terhadap performa keuangan bank syariah di 10 negara (2021-2023). Sampel mencakup 27 Bank Syariah dari 10 Negara urutan teratas dari skor IFCI tahun 2022. Metode data panel efek tetap dan efek acak diterapkan pada penelitian ini. Hasil menunjukkan FDR dan angka kemiskinan berkorelasi signifikan secara positif, sedangkan FDI dan NPF berkorelasi signifikan secara negatif. Negara Sudan dan Pakistan memiliki kebijakan pemerintah dan penerimaan sosial yang mendukung Bank Syariah, sedangkan Kuwait persaingan antar bank ketat dan masih tinggi ketergantungan pendapatan dari minyak.

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This research analyzes the influence of social and macroeconomic factors on the financial performance of Islamic banks in 10 countries from 2021 to 2023. The sample includes 27 Islamic banks from the top 10 countries according to the 2022 IFCI score. Panel data methods, including fixed effects and random effects models, are applied in this study. The results indicate that the Financing to Deposit Ratio (FDR) and poverty rate are significantly and positively correlated, while Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Non-Performing Financing (NPF) are significantly and negatively correlated. Sudan and Pakistan have government policies and social acceptance that support Islamic banks, whereas in Kuwait, competition among banks is intense, and there is still a high dependence on oil revenue."