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Abstrak :
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji teori political budget cycle (PBC) di Indonesia sebagai salah satu negara demokrasi terbesar di dunia. Selain itu juga dianalisis bagaimana pengaruh perubahan komposisi belanja dalam political budget cycle tersebut terhadap kerugian daerah. Kerugian daerah merupakan penyimpangan pengelolaan keuangan daerah yang ditemukan dalam hasil audit oleh BPK RI. Dalam penelitian ini data yang digunakan merupakan tingkat kabupaten dan kota periode tahun 2014 s.d. 2019. Spesifikasi model panel data fixed effect digunakan untuk menguji keberadaan fenomena political budget cycle di Indonesia. Selanjutnya, model tobit digunakan untuk mengestimasi dampak perubahan komposisi belanja dalam PBC terhadap kerugian daerah. Berdasarkan hasil empiris, ditemukan bukti sebagai berikut: (1) fenomena PBC terjadi di Indonesia terutama pada belanja hibah, belanja barang, dan belanja modal; (2) tidak ditemukan perbedaan perilaku PBC antara kepala daerah petahana yang kembali mengikuti pilkada dengan kepala daerah petahana yang tidak mengikuti pilkada; (3) PBC menjelang pilkada dapat meningkatkan kerugian daerah; (4) kerugian daerah yang rendah dapat meningkatkan peluang petahana memenangkan pilkada. ......This study aims to test the theory of political budget cycle (PBC) in Indonesia as one of the largest democracies in the world. It is also analyzed the effect of changes in the composition of expenditure in the PBC on regional losses. Regional losses are irregularities in regional finance management found in the results of an audit by BPK RI. In this study, the data used are at the municipalities levels for the period 2014 to 2019. Fixed effect panel data specification model is used to test existence of political budget cycle phenomenon in Indonesia. Furthermore, the tobit model is used to estimate the impact of changes in the composition of expenditure in PBC on regional losses. Based on empirical results, the following evidence is found: (1) PBC phenomenon occurs in Indonesia, especially in donation, goods, and capital expenditure; (2) There was no difference in PBC behavior between region having re-running incumbent and regions that have last-period incumbent; (3) The existence of PBC tends to increase regional losses; (4) A low level of regional losses can increase the chances of the incumbent winning the elections.

Abstrak :
This study aims to test the Political Budget Cycle (PBC) in Indonesia as one of the world's largest democracies, specifically testing the presence of PBC across types of local government expenditures. This study further analyzed the effect of changes in expenditure composition during election years on financial local government losses. The financial losses are defined as irregularities in regional finance management found in the Audit Board of The Republic of Indonesia (BPK) audit report. This study uses the data at the district and city levels (local expenditures and financial losses) from 2014 to 2019 and adopts a fixed-effect panel data specification. The empirical estimations show the following evidence: (1) PBC phenomenon occurs in Indonesia, especially on government grants (belanja hibah), expenditure on goods and services, and capital expenditures; (2) There was no difference in PBC behavior between a region having an incumbent running for re-election and a region with incumbents from the previous election; (3) The existence of PBC tend to increase local government (financial) losses.