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Abstrak :
[ABSTRAK
Risiko dan ketidakpastian pasti ada dalam setiap pengambilan keputusan. Oleh karena itu, perlu dilakukan analisis keputusan untuk mengatasi hal tersebut. Banyak sekali metode analisis keputusan, seperti Metode Expected Monetary Value (EMV), Teori Pilihan, Teori Portfolio, dan lain-lain. Namun, tidak semua dapat diaplikasikan dalam kondisi kehidupan nyata. Dalam hal risiko, industri minyak dan gas bumi (migas) adalah industri yang memiliki tingkat risiko yang tinggi, terutama dalam hal investasi. Oleh karena itu, perusahaan migas memerlukan suatu metode analisis keputusan untuk menghadapi risiko tersebut. Hanya saja, teknik analisis keputusan yang digunakan tiap perusahaan belum tentu sama. Penelitian ini akan mencari teknik analisis keputusan yang cocok untuk digunakan di perusahaan migas yang beroperasi di Indonesia. Teknik analisis keputusan tersebut akan dikaji performanya dengan cara menganalisis nilai ekonomis sebuah proyek dan nanti hasilnya akan dibandingkan dengan nilai ekonomis proyek yang menggunakan teknik analisis keputusan konvensional. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa teknik analisis keputusan XYZ-PDEP yang digunakan oleh K3S XYZ terbukti menghasilkan nilai keekonomian proyek yang lebih baik daripada teknik analisis keputusan konvensional. Nilai keekonomian tinggi yang dicapai dengan penggunaan teknik analisis keputusan XYZ-PDEP dibandingkan dengan menggunakan teknik analisis keputusan konvensional menyimpulkan bahwa terdapat hubungan antara penggunaan teknik pengambilan keputusan yang berbeda dengan performa yang dihasilkan.

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ABSTRACT
Risk and uncertainty will always exist in every decision making. Therefore, decision analysis is needed in order to overcome those problems. There are numerous decision analysis methods, such as Expected Monetary Value (EMV), Option Theory, Portfolio Theory, etc. Unfortunately, not all of them are applicable in real life conditions. Concerning risks, the oil and gas industry is the one industry that has high risks, especially in investment. Therefore, oil and gas companies need a decision analysis method to face those risks. Nonetheless, decision analysis techniques differ from one company to others. This research will find which decision analysis technique is the most suitable one for oil and gas companies in Indonesia. The decision analysis technique?s performance will be evaluated through one of its project?s economic value and the results are then compared with the same project being evaluated by conventional decision analysis technique. The results of this research shows that XYZ-PDEP decision analysis technique that is used by K3S XYZ proved to produce a better project economic value rather than conventional decision analysis technique. The high economic value that was produced by XYZ-PDEP decision analysis technique compared to conventional decision analysis technique concludes that there is a relation between the utilization of different decision analysis technique with each of its performance outcome.;Risk and uncertainty will always exist in every decision making. Therefore, decision analysis is needed in order to overcome those problems. There are numerous decision analysis methods, such as Expected Monetary Value (EMV), Option Theory, Portfolio Theory, etc. Unfortunately, not all of them are applicable in real life conditions. Concerning risks, the oil and gas industry is the one industry that has high risks, especially in investment. Therefore, oil and gas companies need a decision analysis method to face those risks. Nonetheless, decision analysis techniques differ from one company to others. This research will find which decision analysis technique is the most suitable one for oil and gas companies in Indonesia. The decision analysis technique?s performance will be evaluated through one of its project?s economic value and the results are then compared with the same project being evaluated by conventional decision analysis technique. The results of this research shows that XYZ-PDEP decision analysis technique that is used by K3S XYZ proved to produce a better project economic value rather than conventional decision analysis technique. The high economic value that was produced by XYZ-PDEP decision analysis technique compared to conventional decision analysis technique concludes that there is a relation between the utilization of different decision analysis technique with each of its performance outcome.;Risk and uncertainty will always exist in every decision making. Therefore, decision analysis is needed in order to overcome those problems. There are numerous decision analysis methods, such as Expected Monetary Value (EMV), Option Theory, Portfolio Theory, etc. Unfortunately, not all of them are applicable in real life conditions. Concerning risks, the oil and gas industry is the one industry that has high risks, especially in investment. Therefore, oil and gas companies need a decision analysis method to face those risks. Nonetheless, decision analysis techniques differ from one company to others. This research will find which decision analysis technique is the most suitable one for oil and gas companies in Indonesia. The decision analysis technique?s performance will be evaluated through one of its project?s economic value and the results are then compared with the same project being evaluated by conventional decision analysis technique. The results of this research shows that XYZ-PDEP decision analysis technique that is used by K3S XYZ proved to produce a better project economic value rather than conventional decision analysis technique. The high economic value that was produced by XYZ-PDEP decision analysis technique compared to conventional decision analysis technique concludes that there is a relation between the utilization of different decision analysis technique with each of its performance outcome.;Risk and uncertainty will always exist in every decision making. Therefore, decision analysis is needed in order to overcome those problems. There are numerous decision analysis methods, such as Expected Monetary Value (EMV), Option Theory, Portfolio Theory, etc. Unfortunately, not all of them are applicable in real life conditions. Concerning risks, the oil and gas industry is the one industry that has high risks, especially in investment. Therefore, oil and gas companies need a decision analysis method to face those risks. Nonetheless, decision analysis techniques differ from one company to others. This research will find which decision analysis technique is the most suitable one for oil and gas companies in Indonesia. The decision analysis technique?s performance will be evaluated through one of its project?s economic value and the results are then compared with the same project being evaluated by conventional decision analysis technique. The results of this research shows that XYZ-PDEP decision analysis technique that is used by K3S XYZ proved to produce a better project economic value rather than conventional decision analysis technique. The high economic value that was produced by XYZ-PDEP decision analysis technique compared to conventional decision analysis technique concludes that there is a relation between the utilization of different decision analysis technique with each of its performance outcome., Risk and uncertainty will always exist in every decision making. Therefore, decision analysis is needed in order to overcome those problems. There are numerous decision analysis methods, such as Expected Monetary Value (EMV), Option Theory, Portfolio Theory, etc. Unfortunately, not all of them are applicable in real life conditions. Concerning risks, the oil and gas industry is the one industry that has high risks, especially in investment. Therefore, oil and gas companies need a decision analysis method to face those risks. Nonetheless, decision analysis techniques differ from one company to others. This research will find which decision analysis technique is the most suitable one for oil and gas companies in Indonesia. The decision analysis technique’s performance will be evaluated through one of its project’s economic value and the results are then compared with the same project being evaluated by conventional decision analysis technique. The results of this research shows that XYZ-PDEP decision analysis technique that is used by K3S XYZ proved to produce a better project economic value rather than conventional decision analysis technique. The high economic value that was produced by XYZ-PDEP decision analysis technique compared to conventional decision analysis technique concludes that there is a relation between the utilization of different decision analysis technique with each of its performance outcome.]

Abstrak :
Sistem produksi dalam industri manufaktur terbagi menjadi dua jenis, yaitu strategi Make-to-stock dan Make-to-order yang dibedakan berdasarkan waktu pesanan diterima dan pelaksanaan proses produksi. Dalam sistem MTO, pesanan pelanggan menjadi pemicu untuk terjadinya proses selanjutnya dan menjadi titik kritis dari sistem. Keputusan untuk menerima dan menolak pesanan yang masuk merupakan kegiatan yang paling penting karena akan berdampak jangka panjang terhadap profitabilitas dan reputasi perusahaan secara keseluruhan. Kegiatan ini merupakan keputusan yang sangat strategis, sehingga diperlukan dukungan dalam kegiatan ini. Penelitian ini menyelidiki bagaimana metode penerimaan pesanan dalam strategi MTO dilakukan dan merancang penilaian penerimaan pesanan menggunakan metode MCDA sehingga dapat digunakan sebagai pendukung dalam pengambilan keputusan penerimaan pesanan. Metode AHP digunakan untuk mendapatkan prioritas faktor penerimaan pesanan dengan data yang diperoleh dari hasil wawancara para pakar. Hasil AHP menunjukkan prioritas dalam menerima pesanan yaitu ketersediaan bahan baku, harga, kemampuan produksi, situasi pasar, pelanggan, target, pemenuhan pesanan, dan kondisi eksternal. EMV dihitung untuk setiap kriteria dan risiko yang selanjutnya digunakan untuk membantu membuat keputusan yang tepat dalam penerimaan pesanan. Seluruh metodelogi dalam penelitian ini dijelaskan dengan menggunakan studi di industri pelapisan baja di Indonesia. Studi tersebut menunjukkan EMV dan AHP dapat digunakan untuk memberikan penilaian kelayakan terhadap pesanan yang diterima. ......The production system in the manufacturing industry is divided into two types, namely the Make-to-stock (MTS) and Make-to-order (MTO) strategies which are distinguished by the time orders are received and the execution of the production process. In the MTO system, the customer's order becomes a trigger for the next process and becomes a critical point of the system. The decision to accept and reject incoming orders is the most important activity because it will have a long-term impact on the overall profitability and reputation of the company. This activity is a very strategic action, so support is needed in this activity. This study investigates how the method of receiving orders in the MTO strategy is carried out and designs an assessment of order acceptance using the MCDA method so that it can be used as a support in making orders for acceptance decisions. The AHP method was used in this study to obtain priority order criteria with data obtained from expert interviews. The results of AHP show the order of importance in receiving orders, namely the availability of raw materials, prices, production capabilities, market situations, customers, targets, order fulfillment, and external conditions. EMV is calculated for each criterion and risk which is then used to help make the right decisions in accepting orders. The entire methodology in this study is explained by using cases in the steel coating industry in Indonesia. The case study shows that EMV and AHP can be used to provide a feasibility assessment of orders received.

Abstrak :
ABSTRAK
Dalam penelitian ini, efek ketidakpastian tanah dianalisis secara probabilistik untuk beberapa kondisi geometri lereng. Geometri lereng yang yang berbeda di representasikan dalam sudut 27, 34, 45 dan 63 pada ketinggian 5, 10 dan 15 m. Analisis probabilistik stabilitas lereng dilakukan menggunakan SLOPE/W utuk menggambarkan pola keruntuhan dan probabilitas kegagalan yang dimiliki oleh setiap bentuk geometri. Hasil probabilistik digunakan dalam mencari faktor yang mempegaruhi pengambilan keputusan bentuk geometri lereng dengan meninjau keadaan lereng dari konstruksi hingga pengoperasiannya dengan perhitungan Expected Monetary Value EMV . Pendekatan analisis decision making memberikan gambaran bagaimana pengaruh konsekuensi dari setiap pemilihan keputusan geometri lereng dilihat dari biaya.

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ABSTRACT
In this study, soil uncertainties were analyzed probabilistically in different slope geometries. Different slope geometries are represented in 27, 34, 45 and 63 angles at 5m, 10m and 15 m height. The probabilistic analysis of slope stability is conducted with SLOPE W to describe the slip surface and the probability of failure possessed by slope geometries. Probabilistic results are used to know the factors that influences the decision making on slope geometries considering its state of the construction until operation with Expected Monetary Value EMV calculations. The decision making analysis approach gives an overview of how the consequences of slope geometries determined the decision made by its cost.

Abstrak :
Dalam membangun sebuah infrastruktur jalan berupa timbunan terdapat berbagai pilihan desain konstruksi. Untuk menentukan desain konstruksi yang sesuai dilakukan analisis stabilitas struktur dan analisis biaya. Pada penelitian ini, analisis struktur dilakukan dengan melakukan analisis probabilistik yang dipengaruhi oleh ketidakpastian parameter tanah pada konstruksi jalan berupa konstruksi lereng timbunan terbuka dengan sudut kemiringan 34˚ dan 63, konstruksi retaining wall, dan konstruksi pile-slab dengan variasi ketinggian timbunan 3, 6 dan 9 meter. Analisis biaya dilakukan berdasarkan 4 komponen biaya yaitu, biaya akuisisi lahan, biaya konstruksi, biaya rekonstruksi dan biaya kehilangan pendapatan. Biaya akuisisi lahan menjadi faktor penting oleh karena di lingkungan perkotaan biaya akuisisi lahan menjadi sangat mahal. Penentuan keputusan dilakukan dengan analisis probabilistik menggunakan metode Expected Monetary Value (EMV) yang dibagi atas probabilitas konstruksi aman (FS>1) dan probabilitas konstruksi tidak aman (FS<1). Hasil analisis menunjukan EMV terendah setiap ketinggian timbunan dapat berubah sesuai dengan harga biaya akuisisi lahan. ......There are various construction design choices in building a road infrastructure. To determine the appropriate construction design, structural stability analysis and cost analysis are considered. In this study, structural analysis is calculated by conducting probabilistic analysis which is influenced by uncertainty of soil parameters. Construction design choices will be divided into construction design which are open-fill slope of 34˚ and 63, retaining wall structure, and pileslabs structure with variations in heap height of 3, 6 and 9 meters. There are 4 components that is considered in costs analysis, land acquisition costs, construction costs, reconstruction costs and revenue loss costs. Land acquisition costs are an important factor because in urban environments the cost of land acquisition is very expensive. The decision making is done by probabilistic analysis using the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) method which is divided into the probability of safe construction (FS> 1) and the probability of insecure construction (FS <1). The analysis results show the lowest EMV for each heap height can change according to the price of land acquisition costs.

Abstrak :
Dalam proses mendesain struktur geoteknik, perlu diperhatikan mengenai ketidakpastian parameter kuat geser pada tanah. Ketidakpastian tersebut dapat mempengaruhi stabilitas struktur dan menyebabkan keluarnya biaya berlebih akibat kegagalan yang terjadi. Pada penelitian ini, akan disajikan proses pemilihan struktur galian pada lingkungan perkotaan dengan memperhatikan ketidakpastian parameter tanah yang dihitung menggunakan metode probabilistik. Struktur galian yang akan dipertimbangkan adalah galian lereng terbuka dan galian dengan dinding penahan tipe sheet pile dan secant pile. Proses pemilihan struktur galian menggunakan analisis Expected Monetary Value dengan mempertimbangkan biaya pembebasan lahan, biaya konstruksi, biaya perbaikan akibat terjadi kegagalan, dan kehilangan pendapatan akibat terjadi kegagalan. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa dalam proses pengambilan keputusan sangat dipengaruhi oleh faktor biaya pembebasan lahan, diikuti dengan faktor biaya kehilangan pendapatan, biaya konstruksi dan biaya rekonstruksi. ......In the process of designing geotechnical structures, it is important to consider the uncertainty of soil shear strength parameters. This uncertainty can influence the soil structure stability and resulting in unexpected expenses due to structural failure. This research will provide a decision making process to choose which type of slope excavation structure in urban areas by considering the uncertainty of soil parameters using probabilistic method. Slope excavation structures which will be considered are open-cut slopes, excavation with sheet pile and secant pile retaining wall. The decision making process will be calculated by using Expected Monetary Value analysis which considers land acquisition cost, construction cost, reconstruction cost caused by failure and revenue lost caused by failure. The result shows that the biggest cost which affected the decision is the land acquisition cost, followed by revenue lost cost, construction cost, and reconstruction cost.