Hasil Pencarian  ::  Simpan CSV :: Kembali

Abstrak :
Equity Risk Premium (ERP) adalah besarnya kompensasi yang didapat oleh investor yang berani berinvestasi pada risiko yang lebih tinggi. Setiap portfolio investasi membawa tingkat risiko yang berbeda-beda dan ERP yang menggambarkan besaran dari harga atas risiko tersebut. Radulescu-Pele (2014) menawarkan ide bahwa runtun waktu makroekonomi dapat digunakan untuk menaksir ERP. Namun, runtun makoekonomi tidak dapat langsung digunakan dalam memodelkan ERP dalam suatu model regresi. Runtun makroekonomi mengandung growth component dan cyclical component. Sehingga, terlebih dahulu harus dilakukan dekomposisi untuk memisahkan kedua komponen tersebut. Salah satu metode dekomposisi yang dapat digunakan adalah Hodrick-Prescott Filter. Dalam metode HP Filter, pemilihan nilai parameter pemulusan yang tepat menjadi salah satu kendala. Pemilihan besarnya parameter pemulusan dapat dilakukan dengan memperhatikan interval waktu pengamatan dari runtun waktu makroekonomi yang digunakan dalam memodelkan ERP.

---

Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is the increasing of the risk for the expected additional return. Every portfolio brings different rate of risk and ERP presents the compensatition of the risk.. Radulescu and Pele (2014) suggested that macroeconomics series can be used for estimating ERP. But the series of macroeconomics can not be used directly. The variables have to be decomposed first to separate growth component and cyclical component. One of the decomposition?s method is Hodrick-Prescott Filter. In this method, the selection of the smoothness parameter could be a problem. The selection of smoothness parameter can be based on the length of macroeconomics series? observation in modeling the ERP.

Abstrak :
ABSTRAK The expected equity risk premium is a key input in various financial applications. Different methods exist for estimating the risk premium. This paper applies two approaches to estimate it in the markets of Greater China. More specifically, the historical average and relative estimation are carefully examined. The first approach is applied to estimate the equity risk premium when the markets are recovering from a trough. Then the relative estimation approach is applied to justify those findings, taking into consideration the lower rate of return required of Chinese investors due to a lack of investment opportunities. After these adjustments, the risk premium in Mainland China is found to be close to those in Hong Kong and Taiwan. All of these markets have a higher risk premium than in the US market. The risk premiums for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are about 8% and 10%, respectively. The risk premiums for the Hong Kong and Taiwan markets are 8% and 9% compared to a long- term forward-looking risk premium of about 4% for the US market.