Hasil Pencarian  ::  Simpan CSV :: Kembali

"ABSTRAKKebijakan Quantitative Easing (QE) dijalankan The Fed untuk menggerakan perekonomian Amerika Serikat (AS) yang terpuruk akibat krisis subprime mortgage. Kebijakan QE yang telah tiga kali dilaksanakan sejak 2008, juga dianggap mendorong masuknya investor asing ke emerging markets. Penelitian ini fokus pada korelasi dinamis antara bursa saham AS dengan emerging markets dalam ASEAN 6 dan Fragile Five. Menggunakan metode Dynamic Conditional Correlation, hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa bursa saham Brazil dan Afrika Selatan merupakan emerging market yang memiliki korelasi terkuat dengan AS. Selain itu, aset saham juga terlihat merupakan jenis investasi yang paling dominan dipilih investor asing di hampir semua emerging markets, kecuali di Thailand dan Filipina saat periode QE1 berjalan.

---

ABSTRACTQuantitative Easing (QE) is a policy implemented by The Fed to stimulate U.S. economy after subprime mortgage crisis. Implemented three times since 2008, QE is also considered as the cause of foreign short term capital flows to emerging markets. This research focuses on the dynamic correlation between the U.S. stock market and emerging stock markets in ASEAN 6 and Fragile Five. Using Dynamic Conditional Correlation method, the results shows that Brazil and South Africa are strongly correlated with the U.S. Additionally, foreign investors seem to pick stocks as their main asset class during QE in almost all emerging markets, except in Thailand and The Philippines during the first QE period."

"Tesis ini bertujuan menganalisis korelasi dinamis lintas pasar negara-negara Frontier Markets. Dengan menerapkan model corrected Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH, return indeks saham harian dua belas negara Frontier Markets dan Amerika dari Januari 2003 sampai Desember 2013 digunakan untuk membandingkan struktur interaksi hubungan dan kemungkinan efek contagion. Hasil temuan menunjukkan belum terintegrasinya pasar saham negara-negara yang dikategorikan sebagai Frontier Markets. Lebih lanjut, efek contagion dari krisis yang terjadi di Amerika nyatanya hanya memberikan dampak kecil terhadap negara-negara Frontier Markets. Dengan demikian, negara-negara Frontier Markets merupakan daerah potensial yang dapat dijadikan sebagai alternatif kesempatan berinvestasi.

---

This thesis aims to analyse the dynamic correlation across markets of Frontier Markets countries. Applying the corrected Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH model, the daily stock returns of twelve Frontier Markets indices and America from January 2003 to December 2013 are used to compare the interaction structure of relationships and possible contagion effects. The findings show that the stock market of Frontier countries has not been integrated. Furthermore, the contagion effect of the crisis in America in fact has little impact on the Frontier Markets countries. Thus, Frontier Markets countries are potential areas that can serve as an alternative investment opportunity."

"ABSTRAKPenelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui hubungan dinamis antara nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap dolar AS , suku bunga dan pasar saham Indonesia dari Desember 2008 hingga Mei 2017. Kami mengestimasi adanya long memory dan volatilitas asimetris dalam hubungan dinamis antara variabel-variabel ini menggunakan metode VAR, FIAPARCH dan DCC. Secara endogen mendeteksi tanggal pergeseran volatilitas dan meneliti hubungan korelasi dinamis. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa ada bukti kuat dari asimetris dan long memory pada semua volatilitas dari return series. Volatilitas asimetris untuk berita yang tidak terduga pada pasar saham menunjukkan hasil positif, volatilitas lebih dipengaruhi oleh guncangan negatif dibandingkan dengan guncangan positif untuk pasar saham. Sedangkan hasil negatif untuk forex dan pasar obligasi. Guncangan positif bagi foreign exchange dan pasar obligasi akan memicu sentimen negatif. Selain itu, hubungan dinamis antara pasar obligasi dan pasar saham selalu ditemukan dalam korelasi negative, sedangkan hasil yang positif pada obligasi dan nilai tukar dimana merupakan temuan yang sama seperti di negara-negara berkembang lainnya. Volatility shift dalam stock return diestimasi menggunakan multiple breakpoint. Periode volatilitas yang relatif tinggi dan rendah terlepas pada apakah periode tersebut terjadi saat krisis keuangan yang merupakan penyebab sebenarnya. Sumber pergeseran volatilitas kearah atas secara eksternal bukan disebabkan oleh kondisi keuangan politik-ekonomi global Indonesia.Salah satu penemuan dari analisa model adalah guncangan pada volatilitas menimbulkan abrupt changes pada hubungan dinamis, akan tetapi efeknya hanya pada jangka pendek. Untuk para pembuat kebijakan dan investor tidak perlu bereaksi terhadap guncangan pada volatilitas guna mencegah transmisi jangka panjang diantara ketiga pasar keuangan. Investor dengan posis pada cross hedge pada pasar dapat mempertahankan alokasinya

---

ABSTRACTThis paper investigates the dynamic relationship between exchange rate IDR against US dollar , interest rate and stock market of Indonesia from December 2008 to May 2017. We estimate long memory and asymmetric volatility in dynamic correlations between these variables using the VAR, FIAPARCH and DCC approach. We endogenously detect the volatility shift dates and investigate the relation between the dynamic correlations. Result reveal that there is a strong evidence of asymmetric and long memory in all volatility return series. Asymmetric volatility for unexpected news on the stock market shows a positive result, volatility is affected by negative shocks compared to positive shocks for the stock market. And negative results for the forex and bond markets. Positive shock for the forex market and bond market will lead to negative sentiment. In addition, the dynamic correlation between bonds and the stock market is always found in negative and positive correlation between bond and exchange rate shows the same result as in other developing countries. Volatility shifts in these market returns by estimate the multiple breakpoint in daily data. Periods of relatively high and low volatility are defined regardless of whether a financial crisis is the true cause. The source of the upwards volatility shifts from external, not caused by Indonesia rsquo s global politic economic financial conditions.One of the main findings of the model analysis is volatility shock creates abrupt changes in dynamic correlation, but the effect only in short term. For policy makers and investor do not need to react to volatility shocks to prevent long term transmission between these markets. Investors with cross hedge positions in this market can maintain their allocations because the sudden change in correlation is expected to restore their regular rate in the medium term. It has revealed a negative relationship between exchange rate and stock market yield. "

"Modeling the correlation of assets returns volatilities across different markets or segments of amarket has practical value for portfolio selection and diversification, market regulation, and riskmanagement. This paper therefore evaluates the nature of time-varying correlation between volatilitiesof stock market and crude oil returns in Nigeria using Dynamic Conditional Correlation-GeneralisedAutoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH) model. Results from DCCGARCH(1,1) model show evidence of volatility clustering and persistence in Nigeria stock marketand crude oil returns. The results also show that there is no dynamic conditional correlation in ARCHeffects between stock market returns and crude oil prices in Nigeria. The results further show thatthere is strong evidence of time-varying volatility correlation between stock market and crude oilreturns volatility. The findings will help shape policy-making in risk management and market regulationin Nigeria."

"Skripsi ini meneliti tingkat comovement pasar modal antara negara ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapura, Thailand dan Philipina) dan negara maju (Australia, Inggris, Jepang, Korea Selatan, Cina) terhadap pasar modal Amerika serta menguji tingkat comovement intra ASEAN-5 pada periode 2000-2014. Pengujian tingkat comovement menggunakan analisis wavelet dan Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC). Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah tingkat comovement tergantung pada tingkat pembangunan ekonomi, aspek regional dan aspek skala waktu. Hasil tersebut mempengaruhi pengambilan keputusan investasi terkait diversifikasi internasional. Kedua hasil analisis menunjukkan ASEAN-5 belum terintegrasi sepenuhnya, namun dalam jangka panjang integrasi ASEAN dapat dilakukan.

---

The purpose of this study is to measure capital market comovement between ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Philippines) and the other developed countries (Australia, UK, Japan, South Korea, and China) with respect to US capital market as well as to test market comovement between ASEAN-5 capital markets for period 2000-2014. Market comovement is measured using wavelet analysis and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC). The results of this study propose that market comovement depends on level of economic development, regional aspect, and timescale of return. These results would influence investment decision on international diversification. Both of the analysis gives conclusion that ASEAN capital markets have not been fully integrated, but in the long term financial integration can be implemented."