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Abstrak :
A study has been done on the potential integration of Demand Side Management (DSM) to the reduction of electric power peak load forecasting in the Indonesian electric system by using the indonesia Energy Outlook by .System Dynamic (INOSYD) model and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method, within the study period of 2005-202l. DSM is the process of managing the consumption of energy. generally to optimize availability and development plan of energy resources. DSM application in this research refers to actions taken on the customer 's side of the matter to change the amount or timing of energy consumption, therefore it influences the reduction of the long-range forecasting of electricity peak load In this paper, the lang-term load forecasting is studied by using INOSYD model, JS T method and Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) as comparison, where the calculation results of average annual load growth rate are around 4.60% (DVOSYD) ; 7.l6% (ISD and 6.87% (MAED) respectively. Afterwards, the influence of DSM by an effort to reduce energy consumption of residential sector by an amount of 5% and l0% respectively, with the respect to the lang-term load forecasting by using INOSYD model and ANN method is performed The study results show that DSM application at residential (household sector at an amount of 5% and l 0% by using lNOS}'D model will reduce the average long-term load forecasting by about 4.95% and 9.90% respectively, meanwhile ANN method will reduce the average long-term load forecasting by about 2.74 and 5.36% respectively.

Abstrak :
Permasalahan yang banyak dihadapi oleh perusahaaan Iistrik di dunia saat ini (tak teikecuali juga oleh PT PLN) di dalam upaya untuk memenuhi permintaan tenaga listrik adalah : 1) terbatasnya dana untuk membangun sarana penyediaan tenaga Iistrik, mengingat usaha kelistrikan merupakan usaha yang sifatnya padat modal; 2) semakin menipisnya sumber daya alam sebagai sumber energi primer untuk membangkitkan tenaga listrik; dan 3) munculnya kesadaran masyarakat akan pembangunan yang berwawasan lingkungan. Salah satu alternatif untuk mengatasi kendala-kendala tersebut adalah dengan cara memasukkan atau mempertimbangkan potensi penghematan (MW maupun MWh) yang ada pada sisi pemakai melalui aktifitas Manajemen Sisi Kebutuhan (Demand Side Management-DSM) ke dalam Perencanaan. Pengembangan Sistem Kelistrikan. Pola ini merupakan pola panyediaan tenaga Iistrik yang baru yang dikenal sebagai Perencanaan Sumber Daya Terpadu (integrated Resources Planning-|F~lP), yang tetap didasarkan pada biaya termurah. DSM yang dirancang untuk mempengaruhi pola konsumsi (waktu dan intensitas) penggunaan tenaga iistrik oleh pelanggan, akan berdampak terhadap berubahnya bentuk kurva beban sistem, dan dengan berubahnya bentuk kurva beban sistem ini maka akan berakibat terhadap perubah an lingkat keandalan sistem (1). Adanya perubahan terhadap tingkat keanclalan sistem ini yang diiadikan sebagai dasar untuk menentukan besarnya Capacity Benefit (MW) untuk membedakannya dengan pengertian ?Peak Reduction" yang biasa digunakan untuk menyatakan potensi penurunan beban puncak sistem sebagai dampak dari aktifitas program DSM. Perhitungan Capacity Benefit ini dimungkinkan setelah ditemukannya suatu model kurva beban yang dikenal sebagai "VPI Load Model""2' yang merupakan fungsi dari beban puncak, beban dasar dan total konsumsi energi, sehingga ia dapat menam pung setiap perubahan bentuk kurva beban sistem yang sering terjadi karena adanya aktilitas DSM. Dalam thesis ini, penulis akan melakukan analisa Capacity Benefit terhadap sasaran program DSM di dalam Sistem Keiistrikan .Jawa-Bali, yang dikaitkan dengan Perencanaan pengembangan Sistem Kelistrikan Secara Terpadu. Selain itu, akan dihitung pula besarnya Avoided Cost berkaitan dengan adanya penurunan beban puncak sistem dan total konsumsi energi Iistrik sebagai dampak dari program DSM tersebut. Most the electric power companies in the world (including PT PLN in Indonesia), are facing many problems in providing to meet the expected demand. Some of them are : 1) the limitation of budget to build infrastructure for providing electric power that needs capital intensive; 2) natural resources as primary energy source to generate electric power gradually reduce; 3) increasing of people awareness concerning their environmental conditions. One of the alternatives to solve those problems is by considering the potency of energy that can be saved by consumers (MW and MWh) through introduction and implementation Demand Side Management (DSM) activities in the Power System Planning. This methode in considered as a new concept for providing electric power and known as integrated Resources Planning (IBP). This concept is still based on lowest system cost. DSM that is designed to influence the consumption pattern (time and intensity) of customers' energy use, will change the shapes of load system curves, and the changes of the shapes of load system curves, will affect the level of generation system reliability "". Changing in the level of generation system reliability will be used as a basic calculation for the Capacity Benefit (MW). The term of Capacity Benefit isused to differentiate with the the term of 'Peak Reduction" which is often used to representate the potency of peak load system reduction as a result of implementing DSM program activities. Calculation of Capacity Benefit is enabled after a model of load curves known as ?VPI Load Model"?2' is found. This model is a function of peak load, base load and total energy consumption. This model can also accomodate every changing in the shapes of system load curves that often happens because of DSM activities. In this thesis, it will be conducted an analysis concerning a Capacity Benefit toward (objectives of the) DSM Program in The Java-Bali Power System, that will be related to (the integrated Power System Planning). Besides that, it will also be calculated Avoided Cost as due to of peak load system reduction and the total of electric energy consumption as impacts of implementing the DSM program.

Abstrak :
Energy has moved to the forefront in terms of societal and economic development. Modern energy markets is a comprehensive, economically oriented, exploration of modern electricity networks from production and distribution to deregulation and liberalization processes. Updating previous work by the authors, different aspects are considered resulting in a complete and detailed picture of the systems and characteristics of modern electricity markets. Modern energy markets provides clear detail whilst encompassing a broad scope of topics and includes : 1. A method to model energy production systems including the main characteristics of future demand side management, 2. Different applications of this model in nuclear and renewable energy scenarios, 3. An analysis of Real-Time Pricing of electricity and its potential effects across the market, and, 4. A discussion of the need for regulation in an easily monopolized industry. Engineering and economics students alike will find that modern energy markets is a succinct and informative resource, as will researchers interested in environmental and energy issues. The inclusion of timely and relevant issues related to economic decision will also be of value to industry and civil officials.