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"Tesis ini membahas kemampuan mahasiswa Magister Manajemen Universitas Indonesia dengan konsentrasi Manajemen Operasi angkatan 2012 dalam melakukan analisis demand forecast dengan tepat dan rasional, lalu memformulasi dan membuat keputusan dan/atau kebijakan melalui aggregate production planning sebagai solusi agar rencana proses produksi di PT Rackindo Setara Perkasa dapat berjalan dengan lebih optimal, efisien, efektif, dan tanggap terhadap perubahan-perubahan yang ada di masa mendatang, terutama dari aspek waktu, material, tenaga kerja, ruang/fasilitas, dan bermuara di total biaya yang diperlukan. Karya akhir ini adalah penelitian kuantitatif dengan desain deskriptif. Hasil penelitian menyarankan bahwa perusahaan sudah harus menggunakan analisis kuantitatif yang mendalam untuk mendasari pengambilan keputusan dalam area manajerial agar perusahaan dapat berjalan dengan lebih optimal, efisien, dan efektif.Tiga produk yang digunakan sebagai contoh perhitungan telah memberikan hasil yang revolusioner karena membuat perusahaan dari rugi menjadi laba.

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This thesis discusses the ability of students of Master of Management, University of Indonesia with a concentration in Operations Management class of 2012 in analyzing appropriate and rational demand forecast, then formulate and make decisions and/or policies through the aggregate production planning as a solution in order to plan the production process in PT Rackindo Setara Perkasa runs with more optimal, efficient, effective, and responsive to changes in the future, especially from the aspect of time, materials, labor, space/facilities, and end in the total cost required. This thesis is a descriptive quantitative research design.

The results of the study suggest that the company has to use quantitative analysis to underlying managerial decision making so that the company can run more optimal, efficient, and effective.Three products used as ansampling calculation was revolutionary because the results turn company from loss into making profit."

"Infrastructure plays an important role to support the continued long-term development in order to increase economic growth. From the results of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in 2013 brought exciting news for Indonesia. One of the main programs of Mega Projects in the Infrastructure Master Plan for the Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesian Economic Development (MP3EI) 2011-2025 is the Sunda Strait Bridge (SSB) or Strategic Infrastructure and Regional Sunda Strait. The SSB will connect the islands of Sumatra and Java with a bridge at a length of ± 30 kilometers. The SBB is one of the mega infrastructure projects which is estimated to involve a total investment of US$25 Billion. This research establishes the approach to forecast demand in the case of conceptual design. The SSB is associated with innovations to determine the functions using value engineering methods. The approach involves forecasting demand with a System Dynamics simulation model that could provide a reliable estimate and generate scenarios to compare the financial feasibility of the project before and after the process involving innovation of project functions. Analysis involving demand forecasting with the System Dynamics Approach has confirmed that the Sunda Strait Bridge development with additional functions would increase the revenues of the overall project up to US$61.59 Million, in order to obtain an increased Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the overall project up to 7.56% with a positive Net Present Value (NPV)."

"Peramalan permintaan bantuan logistik merupakan acuan untuk kegiatan distribusi yang optimal pasca gempa bumi. Peramalan permintaan yang akurat dan efisien dapat mencegah habisnya ketersediaan bantuan logistik, mempercepat waktu distribusi, dan menjamin setiap korban gempa bumi memperoleh bantuan logistik yang dibutuhkan, sehingga dapat mengurangi penderitaan dan menyelematkan hidup mereka. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk merancang model peramalan permintaan bantuan logistik pasca gempa bumi. Pendekatan Case-based Reasoning (CBR) dengan dukungan internet of things (IoT) digunakan pada penelitian ini. Gempa bumi Lombok utara yang terjadi pada tahun 2018 digunakan sebagai kasus target yang akan diramal permintaan bantuan logistiknya. Hasil peramalan diperoleh berdasarkan kasus gempa bumi yang paling similar dengan kasus target. Similaritas kedua kasus ditentukan berdasarkan enam atribut yaitu: magnitudo, kedalaman gempa bumi, jarak episentrum, jumlah populasi terdampak, durasi tanggap darurat (hari), dan Modified Marcelli Intensity (MMI). Penerapan IoT dapat memberikan nilai atribut secara real time sehingga hasil peramalan diperoleh secara cepat. Hasil peramalan permintaan bantuan logistik menunjukkan MAPE di bawah 20%, sehingga dikategorikan sebagai hasil peramalan yang baik dan akurat.

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The demand forecasting of emergency logistic relief is a premise and basis for optimal emergency distribution after earthquake. Accurate and efficient demand forecast will prevent stock-out, save time, and ensure every victims get the critical supplies to reduce their suffering and save their life. This paper aims to design demand forecasting model of emergency logistic relief after earthquake. Case-based Reasoning (CBR) method supported by Internet of Things (IoT) is applied to develop the model. This paper uses eartquake incident which struck North Lombok regency in 2018 as target case.

The demand forecasting result is obtained based on the historical case that are the most similar to the target case. The similarity is determined by six attributes: earthquake magnitude, depth of hypocenter, epicentrum distance, total affected population, duration of response phase (day), and modified marcelli intensity (MMI). IoT supports the model to acquire real-time attributes value when earthquake occurs so the forecasting result will be obtained quickly. From the target case, the results shows overall forecast error lower than 20% and open the door for conducting emergency logistic relief demand forecast with quantitative and qualitative approach."

"ABSTRAKProyek listrik 35.000 MW bertujuan untuk meningkatkan rasio elektrifikasi menjadi 97 pada tahun 2019. Dengan target yang sangat tinggi, pelaksanaan proyek pembangkit listrik diharapkan tidak menemui kendala dan keterlambatan sesuai jadwal Commercial Operation Date COD yang ditetapkan di dalam RUPTL Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik . Salah satu penyebab terjadinya kendala proyek adalah kurang akuratnya penentuan tipe pembangkit listrik di dalam RUPTL karena hanya menitik beratkan pada prakiraan beban demand forecast , efisiensi dan keandalan sistem. Dalam penelitian ini dilakukan analisa pemilihan tipe pembangkit listrik berbahan bakar gas menggunakan metode Proses Hirarki Analitik AHP . Dari hasil penelitian, kriteria dengan prioritas tertinggi pada studi kasus pembangkit 250 MW lokasi Arun adalah kriteria kebutuhan sistem dengan nilai Eigen Vector sebesar 0,507 diikuti operasional pembangkit, finansial dan konstruksi. Prioritas sub kriteria teratas adalah demand forecast, jadwal penyelesaian pembangkit dan biaya EPC dengan nilai Eigen vector global lebih dari 0,100. Tipe pembangkit PLTG Aero derivative merupakan alternatif prioritas pertama dengan nilai Eigen Vector global 0,249 disusul oleh PLTMG dengan nilai Eigen Vector global 0,239 dan PLTG Heavy Duty dengan nilai Eigen Vector global 0,227. Nilai prioritas yang hampir sama antara tiga prioritas alternatif PLTG AD, PLTMG dan PLTG HD menunjukkan bahwa tipe pembangkit yang dipilih dalam RUPTL sangat memungkinkan untuk dibuka hanya antara ketiga jenis pembangkit tersebut. Kata kunci: kebutuhan listrik Indonesia, pembangkit listrik berbahan bakar gas, analisa multi kriteria, AHP, kebutuhan sistem, demand forecast, PLTG AD

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ABSTRACTThe 35,000 MW power project aims to increase the electrification ratio to 97 by 2019. With very high targets, the implementation of power generation projects is expected to meet no obstacles and delays in accordance with the Commercial Operation Date COD schedule set out in the RUPTL Business Plan for Power Supply . One of the causes of project constraints is the inaccurate determination of the type of power plant in RUPTL as it only emphasizes on the demand forecast, efficiency and reliability of the system. In this research, there is an analysis of the selection of gas fired power plants using the Analytical Hierarchy Process AHP method. From the research result, the criteria with the highest priority in the case study of 250 MW Arun location is the system requirement criterion with the Eigen Vector value of 0.507 followed by the operational of the plant, finance and construction. The priority of the top sub criteria is demand forecast, plant completion schedule and EPC cost with global Eigen vector value more than 0.100. Aero derivative Gas Turbine power plant type is the first priority alternative with global Eigen Vector 0.249 followed by Gas Engine with global Eigen Vector 0.239 and Heavy Duty Gas Turbine with global Eigen Vector 0.227. Similar priority values among the three alternative priorities of Gas Turbine AD, Gas Engine and Gas Turbine HD indicate that the type of plant selected in RUPTL is possible to be opened only between the three types of plants. Keywords Indonesia 39 s electricity needs, gas fired power plants, multi criteria analysis, AHP, system requirements, demand forecast, Aero Derivative Power Plant"

"ABSTRAKPengadaan pemerintah wajib memenuhi prinsip pengadaan. Penelitian bertujuan untuk menganalisis kriteria penentuan sistem pengadaan jasa penyelenggaraan konferensi internasional dengan metode analytic hierarchy process AHP . Penelitian menggunakan metode kualitatif dengan studi kasus pada KAA 2015. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan penentuan sistem pengadaan melalui pelelangan umum didominasi oleh kriteria akuntabilitas sedangkan kriteria efektifitas menempati urutan prioritas terakhir. Hasil validasi menjelaskan hal tersebut dipengaruhi oleh sikap menghindari umpan balik negatif berupa sanksi atas kesalahan prosedur dalam proses pengadaan. Hasil penelitian juga menunjukkan hasil keputusan menggunakan metode AHP hampir sama dengan cara konvensional tetapi lebih didukung dengan dokumentasi prioritas kriteria dalam pengambilan keputusan.

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ABSTRACTGovernment procurement has to obey the procurement principles. This study aims to analysis the criteria in procurement system determination for international conference using analytic hierarchy process AHP method. Research using qualitative method approach with the case study for the Asian African Summit 2015. It shows a tendency to determine procurement system through open bidding as a result of accountability criteria domination. Procurement organization less concern in effectiveness criteria. The validation of analysis implementation shows that accountability is a priority because of the attitude to avoid negative feedback or legal form of negative sanction which may caused by errors in procurement procedure. Research result with AHP method is not different with conventional decision but it is supported with calculated description of criteria priority."