Hasil Pencarian  ::  Simpan CSV :: Kembali

"Krisis ekonomi dan moneter yang melanda Indonesia sejak medio 1997 telah merontokkan sejumlah perusahaan di Indonesia, endemi kebangkrutan ini telah memberikan kerugian yang besar bagi para stakeholders perusahaan-perusahaan tersebut, mulai dari pemegang saham yang rugi karena nilai saham perusahaannya jatuh bebas, kreditur yang tidak dapat menagih piutangnya, sampai pegawai yang terpaksa di PHK-kan.Kebangkrutan massal tersebut menyadarkan masyarakat tentang pentingnya prediksi keadaan perusahaan di masa yang akan datang. Karena prediksi ini dilakukan oleh masyarakat umum maka data yang dipergunakan dalam prediksi tersebut haruslah data yang mudah diperoleh, seperti laporan keuangan yang dipublikasikan setiap tahunnya.Sebenarnya telah ada beberapa pemndelan prediksi kebangkrutan perusahaan yang umum dipakai, namun model-model tersebut dibuat berdasarkan data-data di negara lain dan pada tahun yang berbeda, sehingga sedikit banyak kurang sesuai dengan keadaan di Indonesia.Penelitian untuk memodelkan prediksi kebangkrutan ini dibatasi pada perusahaan-perusahaan dalam industri barang konsumsi, namun tidak tertutup kemungkinan dipergunakan pada industri lainnya. Sampel yang dipakai adalah dari 40 pemsahaan dalam kurun waktu 1999 sampai 2004, dan menggunakan 22 rasio-rasio keuangan sebagai indikator atas keadaan likuiditas, efisiensi, leverage, dan profitabilitas perusahaan.Penelitan ini menggunakan data tahun 2000 sebagai tahun dasar dan menghasilkan model:Z = 0.948X, +0.697X5 -1.195X5 +1.319X15 +4.599X17 dimana:Xa total liability/ total shareholder's equityX5 : long term liability/ long term liability + total shareholder's equityX6 : total liability/ total assetX15 net sales/ working capitalX17 net income/net salesModel diskriminan ini menunjukkan akurasi yang cukup balk jika diuji menggunakan sampel data tahun 2000 sampai 2004, dengan akurasi rata-ratanya berturut-turut adalah 100.00%, 97.44%, 97.44%, 97.37%, dan 91.89%.Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa persamaan dengan data tahun 2000 sebagai tahun dasar merupakan prediksi kebangkrutan yang cukup akurat untuk perssaaan dalam industri barang konsumsi di Indonesia dengan menggunakan data tahun 1999-2004.

---

Economic and monetary crises which came to Indonesia since mid 1997 have pulled several companies into bankruptcy. This bankruptcy endemic forced those companies' stakeholder to suffer a major loss, shareholders who suffer loss because their stock prices are free-falling, creditors who can't redeem their debt, and last but not least, employees who loss their job because their companies are bankrupt.

This massive bankruptcy endemic notices people about the importance of company future predictions. Since everybody should be able to do this prediction, therefore every data which required doing the prediction should be easily found, for example, financial report published on the internet.

There are some company bankruptcy models commonly used, but those models are built based on data from different countries and in different year. Therefore those models might not be suitable for Indonesia.

This research to model bankruptcy prediction is limited to companies under consumer goods industry, nonetheless it can be built using data from other industries. Samples to be used are from 40 companies from 1999 to 2004, also there are 22 financial ratios as indicator for liquidity, efficiency, leverage, and company profitability.

This research uses data from financial year 2000 as base year, and the research results:

Z = 0.948X4 +0.697X5 -1.195X5 +1.319X15 + 0.599X17 where:

X4 : total liability/ total shareholder's equity

X5 : long term liability/ long term liability + total shareholder's equity

A 6 : total liability) total asset

X15 : net sales/ working capital

X17 : net income/ net sales

This discriminate model shows a high accuracy when tested using data from year 2000 to 2004, with average accuracy consecutively, 100.00%, 97.44%, 97.44%, 97.37% and 91.89%.

This research concludes that model with year 2000 as base year is an accurate bankruptcy prediction for companies in consumer goods industry in Indonesia using data from year 1999-2004."

"Akibat memburuknya kondisi perekonomian akibat kenaikan harga minyak mentah dunia, perusahaan dan bank-bank harus memikirkan cara untuk dapat mempertahankan kelangsungan hidup dari usahanya. Kondisi perekonomian seperti ini menyebabkan perusahaan dan bank-bank mengalami apa yang disebut dengan financial distress, yaitu berdasarkan definisi yang dikemukakan Stephen A. Ross dalam Buku Corporate Finance Sixth Edition; Financial distress is a situation where a firm's operating cash flows are not sufficient to satisfy current obligations (such as trade credits or interest expenses) and the firms is forced to take corrective action.Edward I. Altman telah mengembangkan suatu model yang dapat digunakan oleh Para analis keuangan untuk mengetahui kebangkrutan suatu perusahaan, yaitu Z-Score Model, yang diterapkan pada perusahaan manufaktur dan non manufaktur; perusahaan private dan perusahaan non manufaktur.Berdasarkan hasil pengujian terhadap Laporan Keuangan Bank-Bank yang telah dicabut ijin usahanya, didapatkan hasil test bahwa lebih dari 50% bank-bank tersebut tergolong bangkrut. Atas dasar hat tersebut, penulis berkesimpulan bahwa Z -Score Model Altman untuk perusahaan private dan manufaktur dapat diterapkan pada Laporan Keuangan Bank.Bank-bank yang telah tergolong bangkut tersebut oleh Bank Indonesia disebut sebagai bank bermasalah. Bank-bank ini mendapatkan pengawasan khusus dari Bank Indonesia dan diupayakari untuk dapat disehatkan kembali kondisinya, dengan berbagai cara seperti merger, akuisisi, mencari investor, dan lain-lain, selanjutnya apabila tidak bisa disehatkan kembali maka bank tersebut akan dilikuidasi.Z-Score Model yang dikembangkan oleh E.I. Altman ini masih perlu diteliti kembali khususnya untuk meramalkan kebangkrutan bank-bank, karena terdapat perbedaan yang mendasar dan kegiatan usaha perusahaan dengan perbankan. Di samping itu Z-Score Model dan Altman ini belum memasukkan unsur risiko, off balance sheet transactions dan prudential banking sesuai dengan ketentuan yang berlaku di perbankan.

---

Because of the deterioration of economic conditions since the government increased fuel prices, many companies included banks have been in trouble in its financial condition. To maintain the sustainability of its business, every company must have a good solution in order to deal with this problem. This condition complies with the definition made by Stephen A. Ross in his book Corporate Finance Sixth Edition stating that Financial distress is a situation where a firm's operating cash flows are not sufficient to satisfy current obligations (such as trade credits or interest expenses) and the firms is forced to take corrective action.

Edward I. Altman had developed Z-Score Model to predict firm's bankruptcy. He made two models for different company, that were Z-Score Model for manufacturing and non manufacturing companies and Z-Score Model for private company and non manufacturing company.

The result of testing Z-Score Model to Financial Statement from liquidated banks is that, more than 50% of these banks are proven to be bankrupt banks. Based on this empirical result, I conclude that Z-Score Model from Altman is a good model to predict bank's bankruptcy.

This finding is appropriate with the measures taken by Bank Indonesia as a Central Bank that classified these banks as insolvent banks. These banks, then, received special treatment from Bank Indonesia. In order to make financial condition of these banks was sound, banks and Bank Indonesia must have such solutions as searching new investor, adding up capital, merger, acquisitions, takeovers, etc. Bank Indonesia gave opportunity to bank as follows; if a bank cannot be restored or fail after acquiring special treatment, banks will be closed by Bank Indonesia.

Z-Score Model from E.I. Altman must have developed again because these models are designed for manufacture and non manufacture and private company. If these models are used to banking, many thing likes risk, off balance sheet transactions and prudential banking should be accounted in order to create a suitable models for bank's bankruptcy."