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Abstrak :
Indeks Sentimen Konsumen (ISK) banyak digunakan sebagai pengukur keyakinan pembelian di masa mendatang untuk memprediksi perilaku pembelian agregat di masa datang. Studi ini secara empiris membandingkan antara dua model proyeksi : model pengharapan (the expectation model) yang memasukkan ISK sebagai variabel penjelasan dan model tradisional (the traditional model) yang tidak memasukkan ISK. Kedua modal tersebut digunakan untuk mengestimasi permintaan agregat atas mobil baru di Amerika sejak 1976 sampai 1984. Hasil studi mengindikasikan bahwa ISK memiliki hubungan positif dengan penjualan mobil baru. Namun, berdasarkan kemungkinan kriteria dominan (the likelihood dominance criterion), model tradisional lebih baik dibandingkan model pengharapan. Selain itu, kemampuan memprediksi dari model pengharapan sedikit lebih rendah dibandingkan model tradisional. ...... The index of consumer sentiment (ICS) has been widely employed as a proxy for future buying confidence to predict future aggregate buying behavior. This study empirically compares two forecast models: the expectation model that includes the ICS as an explanatory variable and the traditional model that does not include the ICS. The models are employed to estimate the aggregate demand for new cars in the U.S. from 1976 to 1984. The results indicate that the ICS has a positive relation with new car sales. On the basis of the likelihood dominance criterion, however, the traditional model is preferred to the expectation model. Furthermore, the forecast ability of the expectation model is slightly inferior to the traditional model.

Abstrak :
Studi ini meneliti hubungan antara Consumer Sentiment yang dipengaruhi oleh variable-variabel stimuli yaitu Online Shopping Atmoshphere yang di dalamnya adalah Perceived Festival Entertaining (PFE), Perceived Mass Participation (PMP), Promotion Strategy yang berisi Perceived Temptation of Price Promotion (PTPP), Perceived Categories Richness of Promotion (PCRP), yang dimoderasi oleh Price Sensitivity, dan mempengaruhi Consumer Purchase Intention pada festival Hari Belanja Online Nasional (Harbolnas) di Indonesia. Sebanyak 437 responden telah diperoleh dengan menggunakan teknik purposive sampling dan memberikan repon terhadap kuesioner yang dikirimkan dan diisi secara online. Selanjutnya, Teknik analisis SEM dengan software SmartPLS digunakan untuk menguji 14 hipotesis. Hasil pengolahan data memperlihatkan bahwa dari 14 hipotesis terdapat 6 hipotesis yang tidak didukung. Penelitian ini diharapkan dapat menjadi pertimbangan bagi perusahaan e-commerce di Indonesia untuk membuat strategy marketing yang sesuai dengan keadaan pasar saat ini. ......This study examines the relationship between Consumer Sentiment which is influenced by stimulus variables, namely Online Shopping Atmosphere which includes Perceived Festival Entertaining (PFE), Perceived Mass Participation (PMP), Promotion Strategy which contains Perceived Temptation of Price Promotion (PTPP), Perceived Categories Richness of Promotion (PCRP), moderated by Price Sensitivity, and influencing Consumer Purchase Intention at the National Online Shopping Day festival (Hari Belanja Online Nasional) in Indonesia. A total of 437 respondents have been obtained by using purposive sampling technique and responding to questionnaires sent and filled out online. Furthermore, SEM analysis technique with SmartPLS software was used to test 14 hypotheses. The results of data processing show that from the 14 hypotheses there are 6 hypotheses that are not supported. This research is expected to be a consideration for e-commerce companies in Indonesia to make marketing strategies that are in accordance with current market conditions