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Abstrak :
he first book to be published on the Theta method, outlining under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods This book is the first to detail the Theta method of forecasting - one of the most difficult-to-beat forecasting benchmarks, which topped the biggest forecasting competition in the world in 2000: the M3 competition. Written by two of the leading experts in the forecasting field, it illuminates the exact replication of the method and under what conditions the method outperforms other forecasting methods. Recent developments such as multivariate models are also included, as are a series of practical applications in finance, economics, and healthcare. The book also offers practical tools in MS Excel and guidance, as well as provisional access, for the use of R source code and respective packages. Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications includes three main parts. The first part, titled Theory, Methods, Models & Applications details the new theory about the method. The second part, Applications & Performance in Forecasting Competitions, describes empirical results and simulations on the method. The last part roadmaps future research and also include contributions from another leading scholar of the method - Dr. Fotios Petropoulos. First ever book to be published on the Theta Method Explores new theory and exact conditions under which methods would outperform most forecasting benchmarks Clearly written with practical applications Employs R - open source code with all included implementations Forecasting with the Theta Method: Theory and Applications is a valuable tool for both academics and practitioners involved in forecasting and respective software development

Abstrak :
Sistem navigasi adalah kemampuan utama yang perlu dimiliki autonomous mobile robot. Kemampuan ini memungkinkan robot untuk bergerak dalam jalur optimal untuk mencapai titik tujuan. Sistem navigasi yang dibuat dalam penelitian ini mengandalkan path-planning dan SLAM (Simultaneus Localization and Mapping) untuk menciptakan robot yang dapat bergerak secara otonom dan efisien dalam lingkungan yang sudah dikenali. Robot mengenali lingkungannya dengan memanfaatkan SLAM. SLAM memungkinkan robot untuk melakukan pemetaan lingkungan. Jenis SLAM yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah cartographer SLAM. Hasil pemetaan ini disimpan dalam bentuk occupancy grid map yang merupakan representasi 2D dari lingkungan uji. A* adalah salah satu algoritma path-planning klasik yang memiliki performa sangat baik. Penelitian ini membandingkan algoritma path-planning A* dengan varian A* yaitu Theta* yang menerapkan line of sight dalam sistem pencariannya. Robot diuji dalam tiga lingkungan berbeda dan hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa Theta* lebih unggul dari A* dan mampu menghasilkan jalur yang lebih optimal. ......Navigation system is a main capability that autonomous mobile robots must possess. This ability allows robots to move along the optimal path to reach a destination point. The navigation system developed in this research relies on path-planning and SLAM (Simultaneus Localization and Mapping) to create a robot that capable to move autonomously and efficient in a known environment. The robot uses SLAM to understand its surroundings. SLAM enables the robot to map its environment. The type of SLAM used in this study is cartographer SLAM. The results of this mapping are stored in the form of an occupancy grid map, which is a 2D representation of the test environment. A* is one of the classic path-planning algorithms with excellent performance. This research compares the A* path-planning algorithm with its variant, Theta*, which implements a line of sight in its search system. The robot was tested in three different environments, and the results showed that Theta* outperformed A* and was able to produces more optimal path.

Abstrak :
This research aims at describing empirically on how to do evaluation on item quality of test result for mathematics conducted by school in improving the test instrument quality and assessment result. This test is multiple choices, where value 1 is intended for correct answer but value 0 for incorrect answer. This research was conducted at PPs UNJ, in April until Mey 2009. A finding outcome concludes that the evaluation on the test items quality can be found out by a parameter quality of the test item for model 3P. Within an empirical example is acknowledged that the Mathematics test with total 40 test items is found that there are 7 unsuitable items with model, and 33 test items that are good enough to be used and entirely this test is effective for the test participant target with competency ranging from -1,0