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Abstrak :
Bank BTN Syariah dan Bank Muamalat memiliki rencana untuk melakukan merger. Rencana merger tersebut tentunya akan semakin menguatkan industri perbankan syariah di Indonesia dengan memiliki bank baru yang berskala besar. Penelitian ini menghitung nilai valuasi bagi Bank BTN Syariah dan Bank Muamalat. Penelitian ini juga menghitung nilai sinergi yang timbul dan juga melihat potensi sinergi usaha apabila kedua bank melakukan merger. Metode perhitungan valuasi menggunakan Discounted Cash Flow – Free Cash Flow to Equity (DCF-FCFE) ditambah dengan simulasi Monte Carlo untuk melihat rentang valuasi yang tercipta. Lebih lanjut penelitian ini juga melihat efek pada konsentrasi pasar yang terjadi setelah adanya merger menggunakan Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI). Nilai valuasi bagi Bank BTN Syariah adalah sebesar Rp6,90 Triliun sementara Bank Muamalat sebesar Rp3,17 Triliun. Sehingga total nilai valuasi penggabungannya adalah 10,07 Triliun. Dengan menghitung nilai sinergi, didapatkan bahwa nilai valuasi bagi kedua bank setelah penggabungan adalah sebesar Rp10,44 Triliun atau terjadi nilai sinergi sebesar Rp369 Miliar. Ditemukan bahwa terjadi kenaikan pada tingkat konsentrasi pasar pada industri perbankan syariah di Indonesia. Namun peningkatan tersebut masih dalam level yang diwajarkan dan tidak dianggap memiliki potensi terjadinya praktik monopoli. ...... The merger plan between Bank BTN Syariah and Bank Muamalat is expected to further strengthen the Islamic banking industry in Indonesia by creating a new large-scale bank. This study calculates the valuation for Bank BTN Syariah and Bank Muamalat, as well as assesses the synergies and potential synergy benefits resulting from the merger. Valuation is conducted using the Discounted Cash Flow – Free Cash Flow to Equity (DCF-FCFE) method, supplemented with Monte Carlo simulation to determine the valuation range. Additionally, this study examines the impact on market concentration post-merger using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI). The valuation for Bank BTN Syariah is Rp6.90 trillion, while Bank Muamalat is Rp3.17 trillion, resulting in a total combined valuation of Rp10.07 trillion. By calculating synergy value, the post-merger valuation for both banks is Rp10.44 trillion, indicating a synergy value of Rp369 billion. It is found that market concentration in the Islamic banking industry in Indonesia increases post-merger, but remains within acceptable levels and does not pose a risk of monopolistic practices.

Abstrak :
[ABSTRAK
Indonesia akan segera menghadapi MEA dan sektor keuangan merupakan salah satu sektor yang terpengaruh dan harus dapat bersaing di MEA. Sektor keuangan yang paling dominan di Indonesia adalah Industri Perbankan. Oleh karena itu, Pemerintah memiliki rencana untuk melakukan megamerjer dua bank BUMN besar Indonesia, Bank Mandiri sebagai perusahaan bidder dan BNI sebagai perusahaan target. Penelitian ini akan difokuskan kepada analisis deal payment, struktur kepemilikan bank yang baru, dan hal-hal apa yang perlu diperhatikan demi kesuksesan megamerjer. Hasil penilaian megamerjer yang terjadi antara Bank Mandiri dan BNI pada seluruh skenario memiliki nilai sinergi yang positif yaitu sebesar Rp 1.103,482 Triliun untuk skenario pertama, Rp 7,543 Triliun untuk skenario kedua dan Rp 823,892 Triliun untuk skenario ketiga. Dari ketiga skenario tersebut, diperoleh kesimpulan mengenai Alternatif pembiayaan merjer yang terdiri atas cash dan stock, yang apabila hendak membeli 50% kepemilikan dari BBNI memiliki nilai transaksi sebesar Rp 65,270 Triliun. Dengan jumlah pembayaran tersebut, shareholder BBNI akan menerima 2,78% dari perusahaan setelah merjer pada skenario I, menerima 5,26% pada skenario II, dan 3,16% pada skenario III. Analisis terhadap bobot kepemilikan bank pada scenario I dan III menunjukkan bahwa sesudah merjer bobot kepemilikan majority shareholder dan minority shareholder tidak mengalami perubahan, sedangkan pada skenario II kepemilikan majority shareholder mengalami penurunan dari 60% menjadi 57% dan minority shareholder mengalami peningkatan dari 40% menjadi 43%. Hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa tidak terjadi ekspropriasi terhadap minority shareholder.

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ABSTRACT
Indonesia will face AEC soon and The Financial sector is one sector that‟s affected and should be able to compete in the AEC. The most dominant financial sector in Indonesia is The Banking Industry. Therefore, the Government has plan to merge two major state-owned bank in Indonesia, Bank Mandiri as the bidding firm and BNI as the target firm. This study will be focused on analysis of deal payment, bank ownership structure, and what things to consider for the success of megamerger two Indonesian state-owned banks. Megamerjer assessment results that occur between Bank Mandiri and BNI on the whole scenario has a positive synergy value that is equal to Rp 1.103,482 trillion for the first scenario , Rp 7,543 trillion for the second scenario and Rp 823,892 trillion for the third scenario. Of the three scenarios, the conclusion regarding the financing alternative merger consisting of cash and stock, which, if they wanted to buy 50 % ownership of BBNI having a transaction value of Rp 65,270 trillion . With the amount of such payment , BBNI shareholders will receive 2,78% of the company after the merger in the first scenario , receiving 5,26% in scenario II, and 3,16% in the third scenario. Analysis of the weight bank ownership in scenario I and III shows that after the merger the weight of majority shareholders and minority ownership shareholder is unchanged, while in the scenario II majority shareholder ownership decreased from 60% to 57% and minority shareholders increased from 40% to 43%. These results indicate that there is no expropriation of the minority shareholder.;Indonesia will face AEC soon and The Financial sector is one sector that‟s affected and should be able to compete in the AEC. The most dominant financial sector in Indonesia is The Banking Industry. Therefore, the Government has plan to merge two major state-owned bank in Indonesia, Bank Mandiri as the bidding firm and BNI as the target firm. This study will be focused on analysis of deal payment, bank ownership structure, and what things to consider for the success of megamerger two Indonesian state-owned banks. Megamerjer assessment results that occur between Bank Mandiri and BNI on the whole scenario has a positive synergy value that is equal to Rp 1.103,482 trillion for the first scenario , Rp 7,543 trillion for the second scenario and Rp 823,892 trillion for the third scenario. Of the three scenarios, the conclusion regarding the financing alternative merger consisting of cash and stock, which, if they wanted to buy 50 % ownership of BBNI having a transaction value of Rp 65,270 trillion . With the amount of such payment , BBNI shareholders will receive 2,78% of the company after the merger in the first scenario , receiving 5,26% in scenario II, and 3,16% in the third scenario. Analysis of the weight bank ownership in scenario I and III shows that after the merger the weight of majority shareholders and minority ownership shareholder is unchanged, while in the scenario II majority shareholder ownership decreased from 60% to 57% and minority shareholders increased from 40% to 43%. These results indicate that there is no expropriation of the minority shareholder., Indonesia will face AEC soon and The Financial sector is one sector that‟s affected and should be able to compete in the AEC. The most dominant financial sector in Indonesia is The Banking Industry. Therefore, the Government has plan to merge two major state-owned bank in Indonesia, Bank Mandiri as the bidding firm and BNI as the target firm. This study will be focused on analysis of deal payment, bank ownership structure, and what things to consider for the success of megamerger two Indonesian state-owned banks. Megamerjer assessment results that occur between Bank Mandiri and BNI on the whole scenario has a positive synergy value that is equal to Rp 1.103,482 trillion for the first scenario , Rp 7,543 trillion for the second scenario and Rp 823,892 trillion for the third scenario. Of the three scenarios, the conclusion regarding the financing alternative merger consisting of cash and stock, which, if they wanted to buy 50 % ownership of BBNI having a transaction value of Rp 65,270 trillion . With the amount of such payment , BBNI shareholders will receive 2,78% of the company after the merger in the first scenario , receiving 5,26% in scenario II, and 3,16% in the third scenario. Analysis of the weight bank ownership in scenario I and III shows that after the merger the weight of majority shareholders and minority ownership shareholder is unchanged, while in the scenario II majority shareholder ownership decreased from 60% to 57% and minority shareholders increased from 40% to 43%. These results indicate that there is no expropriation of the minority shareholder.]