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Abstrak :
Pada akhir tahun 2005 di Bursa Efek Jakarta telah tercatat 432 emiten, dimana dari semua saham yang ada memiliki nilai kapitalisasi dan tingkat likuditas, serta menawarkan tingkat pengembalian dan tingkat risiko yang berbeda-beda. Nantinya hal-hal tersebut akan menjadi pertimbangan investor ketika memilih saham dan menginvestasikan dananya. Investor dapat meminimalkan risiko yang ditanggungnya dan memaksimalkan tingkat keuntungan yang diperolehnya dengan Cara membentuk portofolio optimal. Periode dalam penelitian ini adalah Januari 2004-Oktober 2006, penelitian akan menggunakan model indeks tunggal untuk membentuk portofolio optimal dari seluruh saham yang telah dan masih tercatat selama periode penelitian (portofolio I) dan membentuk portofolio optimal dari sahamsaham yang konsisten terpilih sebagai penyusun I,Q45 selama periode penelitian (portofolio II). Sesuai dengan model indeks tunggal, pembentukan portofolio optimal dilakukan dengan memasukan saham-saham yang memiliki nilai excess return to beta (ERB) diatas cut-off rate. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui penerapan single index model dalam pembentukan portofolio optimal dan menganalisis kinerja dari portofolio tersebut. Model indeks tunggal yang dipergunakan yaitu apabila short sales tidak diperkenankan, sesuai dengan peraturan BE.T. Hipotesis yang hendak diuji adalah apakah kinerja portofolio II akan mengungguli portofolio I. Perbandingan kedua portofolio ini akan dilakukan berdasarkan return portofolio (In), beta portofolio (J) dan Treynor Measure. Penelitian juga akan melihat apakah ada saham yang masuk dalam portofolio optimal II tetapi tersisih dalam portofolio I. Dari hasil penelitian, portofolio I terbentuk dengan komposisi 33 saham. Dimana saham Bank NISP tbk (NISP) memiliki proporsi dana terbesar yaitu 9303%. Portofolio II terbentuk dengan komposisi 8 saham, dimana saham Astra Argo Lestari tbk (AALI) memiliki proporsi dana terbesar yaitu 27.992%, sedangkan saham Astra International tbk (ASII) memiliki proporsi dana terkecil yaitu 0.473%. Terdapat 5 saham dalam portofolio 11 yang tidak masuk ke dalam saham penyusun portofolio I, yaitu United Tractors tbk (UNTR), Aneka Tambang tbk (ANTM), Bumi Resources tbk (BUMI), Tambang Batubara Bukit Asarn tbk (PTBA) dan Astra International tbk (ASH). Hal ini terjadi dikarenakan dalam perhitungan portofolio I ketiga saham tersebut mempunyai nilai ERB < unique cut-off point portofolio I. Sehingga dapat disimpulkan tidak selalu saham-saham yang berada dalam Indeks LQ45 dapat mengungguli saham-saham di luar LQ45. Dari basil perbandingan, tingkat pengembalian portofolio II mengungguli portofolio I sebesar 2.4169%. Dan resiko portofolio II juga lebih tinggi dari portofolio II sebesar 0.341235. Hal ini menunjukkan hubungan antara risk dengan return, dimana semakin tinggi return yang diharapkankan maka akan semakin tinggi juga risiko yang harus diambil. Nilai Treynor Measure portofolio II (0.034528032) lebih besar dart portofolio I (-0.005277947), sehingga slope (kemiringan) garis portofolio II dengan R f lebih besar daripada garis portofolio I dengan R f yang menandakan perbandingan antara return dan risk portofolio II lebih bail( dari portofolio I, sehingga dapat disimpulkan portofolio II lebih unggul kinerjanya dart portofolio I.

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At the end of 2005, there had been 432 stocks that listed in Bursa Efek Jakarta (BEJ). Which from all the stock that listed, they had a different value of capitalization and liquidity, they also offered different rate of return and risk. Which this will be a factor for investor in choosing stocks for their investment. Investor could reduce the risk they take and maximize the return they have by making an optimum portfolio. The periods of this research is January 2004 - October 2006, the research will use single index model for making optimum portfolio. Portfolio I will be selected from all the stocks that had and still active in BEJ in the period of research, while Portfolio II will be selected from the stocks that had been selected in LQ45 in the period of research. Based on single index model, the making of optimum portfolio will be executed by selecting the stocks that have excess return to beta (ERB) above the cut-off rate. The goal of this research is to know how to use single index model in making an optimum portfolio, and to analyze the portfolio performance. The using of the model is based on the rule of BEJ, which there are no short sales allowed. The hypothesis that will be tested is; is portfolio II will outperformed portfolio I? The comparison of portfolio will be conducted based on the return of portfolio (R.p), beta portfolio (Op), and Treynor Measure. And in this research we will see if there is a stock that listed in portfolio II but not listed in portfolio I. The result from the research, portfolio I is formed by 33 stocks, which Bank NISP tbk (NISP) has the largest proportion of funds with 9.303%. Portfolio II is formed by 10 stocks, which Astra Agro Lestari tbk (AALI) has the largest proportion of fund with 27.992%, while Astra International tbk (ASII) has the lowest proportion with 0.473%. There are 5 stocks in portfolio II that not included in portfolio I; they are United Tractors tbk (UNTR), Aneka Tambang tbk (ANTM), Bumi Resources tbk (BUMI), Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam tbk (PTBA) and Astra International tbk (ASII). This is because in they all had a value of ERB lower than the unique cut of point portfolio I. So, not all the stocks in LQ45 can outperform other stocks in BEJ. From the comparison of portfolio, the return of portfolio II outperform portfolio I with 2.416%. And the risk of portfolio II is also bigger than portfolio I with 0.341235. This result showed that there is a connection between risk and return, the higher ther return we expected, the higher the risk we must take. Portfolio II has a higher Treynor Measure than portfolio I with 0.0398059 (0.034528032-(-0.0052779), which this can showed that portfolio II have a better risk and return ratio than portfolio I. So the conclution of the research is; portfolio II is outperformed portfolio I.

Abstrak :
Perhitungan mengenai jumlah saham yang optimal untuk menciptakan portofolio yang terdiversifikasi dengan baik sangat diperlukan bagi investor sebagai pedoman awal berinvestasi saham dengan aman. Hal ini penting terutama bagi mereka yang tidak memiliki informasi mengenai risiko dan dampaknya dimasa depan. Tesis ini membahas berapa jumlah saham yang diperlukan untuk menciptakan portofolio yang terdiversifikasi pada pasar modal Indonesia dalam dua periode yang berbeda, serta mengukur kemampuan saham pada masingmasing periode dalam membentuk portofolio yang terdiversifikasi. Penelitian dilakukan pada periode krisis moneter serta periode normal, dengan menggunakan metode single index model (Model Indeks Tunggal).

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Knowing how many stocks to hold in order to create diversified portfolio are important for Investor as a starting point to invest in capital market safely. It is important especially for them that do not have information about risks and its effect to them in the future. Therefore, this thesis's topics are to know how much stock to hold in order to create well diversified portfolio in Bursa Efek Indonesia in two different time period, the global crisis period and after global crisis period. It is also measuring stocks ability in two different time period on creating diversified portfolio. Single index model were used as the model.

Abstrak :
[ABSTRAK
Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui dari kedua model pendugaan return yaitu: Model Indeks Tunggal, dan Model Tiga Faktor Fama-French, manakah yang paling valid untuk menduga return portofolio industri di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan data return bulanan mulai Januari 2010 sampai dengan Desember 2010. Enam portofolio dibentuk dengan menggunakan model Fama-French sebagai dasar. Keenam portofolio tersebut adalah portofolio S/L, S/M, S/H, B/L, B/M, B/H. Excess return Portofolio yang terbentuk menjadi variabel dependen dalam penelitian, sedangkan variabel independen dalam penelitian ini sesuai dengan model indeks tunggal dan model Fama French, yaitu market risk, size factor (SMB), dan value factor (HML). Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa model indeks tunggal signifikan pada hampir seluruh portfolio, namun tidak signifikan pada portofolio S/H. Sedangkan model tiga faktor Fama-French tidak signifikan pada portofolio B/M, dan B/H. Penambahan dua faktor Fama-French meningkatkan kekuatan dalam menjelaskan return. ABSTRACT
The aim of this study was to determine the return of both estimation models are: Single Index Model, and Fama-French Three Factor Model, which is the most valid to infer the industrial portfolio return in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI). This research was conducted using the monthly return data from January 2010 to December 2010. Six portfolios formed by the Fama-French model as a basis. Sixth portfolio is a portfolio of S/L, S/M, S/H, B/L, B/M, B/H. Excess return portfolio that is formed into a dependent variable in the study, while the independent variable in this study is consistent with the single index model and the model of Fama French, is market risk, size factor (SMB), and the value factor (HML). The results showed that a single index model significant in almost all portfolios, but not significant in the portfolio of S/H. While the model of Fama-French three-factor is not significant in the portfolio of B/M and B/H. The addition of two Fama-French factors increase the strength in explaining returns. ;The aim of this study was to determine the return of both estimation models are: Single Index Model, and Fama-French Three Factor Model, which is the most valid to infer the industrial portfolio return in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI). This research was conducted using the monthly return data from January 2010 to December 2010. Six portfolios formed by the Fama-French model as a basis. Sixth portfolio is a portfolio of S/L, S/M, S/H, B/L, B/M, B/H. Excess return portfolio that is formed into a dependent variable in the study, while the independent variable in this study is consistent with the single index model and the model of Fama French, is market risk, size factor (SMB), and the value factor (HML). The results showed that a single index model significant in almost all portfolios, but not significant in the portfolio of S/H. While the model of Fama-French three-factor is not significant in the portfolio of B/M and B/H. The addition of two Fama-French factors increase the strength in explaining returns. ;The aim of this study was to determine the return of both estimation models are: Single Index Model, and Fama-French Three Factor Model, which is the most valid to infer the industrial portfolio return in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI). This research was conducted using the monthly return data from January 2010 to December 2010. Six portfolios formed by the Fama-French model as a basis. Sixth portfolio is a portfolio of S/L, S/M, S/H, B/L, B/M, B/H. Excess return portfolio that is formed into a dependent variable in the study, while the independent variable in this study is consistent with the single index model and the model of Fama French, is market risk, size factor (SMB), and the value factor (HML). The results showed that a single index model significant in almost all portfolios, but not significant in the portfolio of S/H. While the model of Fama-French three-factor is not significant in the portfolio of B/M and B/H. The addition of two Fama-French factors increase the strength in explaining returns. ;The aim of this study was to determine the return of both estimation models are: Single Index Model, and Fama-French Three Factor Model, which is the most valid to infer the industrial portfolio return in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI). This research was conducted using the monthly return data from January 2010 to December 2010. Six portfolios formed by the Fama-French model as a basis. Sixth portfolio is a portfolio of S/L, S/M, S/H, B/L, B/M, B/H. Excess return portfolio that is formed into a dependent variable in the study, while the independent variable in this study is consistent with the single index model and the model of Fama French, is market risk, size factor (SMB), and the value factor (HML). The results showed that a single index model significant in almost all portfolios, but not significant in the portfolio of S/H. While the model of Fama-French three-factor is not significant in the portfolio of B/M and B/H. The addition of two Fama-French factors increase the strength in explaining returns. , The aim of this study was to determine the return of both estimation models are: Single Index Model, and Fama-French Three Factor Model, which is the most valid to infer the industrial portfolio return in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI). This research was conducted using the monthly return data from January 2010 to December 2010. Six portfolios formed by the Fama-French model as a basis. Sixth portfolio is a portfolio of S/L, S/M, S/H, B/L, B/M, B/H. Excess return portfolio that is formed into a dependent variable in the study, while the independent variable in this study is consistent with the single index model and the model of Fama French, is market risk, size factor (SMB), and the value factor (HML). The results showed that a single index model significant in almost all portfolios, but not significant in the portfolio of S/H. While the model of Fama-French three-factor is not significant in the portfolio of B/M and B/H. The addition of two Fama-French factors increase the strength in explaining returns. ]

Abstrak :
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memberikan alternatif pembentukan portofolio saham di PT Taspen (Persero) supaya dapat meningkatkan kinerja investasinya. Alternatif model tersebut adalah dengan mengkombinasikan seleksi saham model Graham dengan model pembentukan portofolio optimal yaitu model Markowitz dan model indeks tunggal. Hasil seleksi saham menggunakan model Graham investor defensif, investor agresif dan Graham-Rea adalah masing-masing 10, 13 dan 3 saham dari 45 saham yang terdapat pada indeks LQ45. Dari saham-saham yang terpilih kemudian dibentuk portofolio optimalnya menggunakan model Markowitz dan model indeks tunggal. Dari portofolio optimal yang terbentuk kemudian dilakukan perbandingan kinerja antara keduanya dan dengan indeks LQ45 sebagai benchmark-nya. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa portofolio hasil optimasi model Markowitz memberikan kinerja (reward to variability ratio) ekspektasi lebih baik dibandingkan portofolio hasil optimasi model indeks tunggal dengan selisih di kisaran 0,15% - 0,96%. Selain itu, kinerja portofolio optimal tersebut, baik secara ekspektasi dan aktual memberikan kinerja lebih baik dibanding indeks LQ45 dengan selisih di kisaran 9,12% - 21,03%. Walaupun secara reward to variability ratio, kinerja metode Taspen lebih tinggi dibanding lainnya tetapi secara return ekspektasi dan aktual masih di bawah portofolio optimal dengan selisih 0,04% - 1,40%. Dengan demikian model kombinasi pembentukan portofolio optimal bertahap ini layak dipertimbangkan untuk diaplikasikan oleh PT Taspen (Persero) sehingga diharapkan dapat meningkatkan hasil investasi saham.

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ABSTRACT
This study aims to provide an alternative method to form stock portfolio in PT Taspen (Persero) in order to improve the investments performance. Alternative models is to combine stock selection Graham model with optimal portfolio conformation model which is Markowitz model and single index model. Using defensive investor, aggressive investor and Graham-Rea criteria resulted in 10, 13 and 3 stocks selected from 45 available stocks that contained in LQ45 index. From these selected stocks then to be formed to it’s optimal portofolio. From established optimal portfolio, the peformance is compared between the two models and to the LQ45 index as its benchmark. The results showed that the portfolio from Markowitz model optimization provide better expected performance (reward to variability ratio) than the single index model optimization with spread of 0.15% - 0.96%. In addition, the performance of portfolio in expectations and actual are better than LQ45 index, with spread of 9.12% - 21.03%. Although Taspen method’s reward to variability is higher compared to others, it’s expected and actual return still below optimal portfolio with a spread of 0.04% - 1.40%. Thus the gradual optimal portfolio formation is worth to be considered to be applied by PT Taspen (Persero) which is expected to increase stock investment returns.