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Imamum Zaenal Muttaqin
Abstrak :
ABSTRAK
Harga gas bumi domestik merupakan salah satu masalah utama dalam percepatan pemanfaatan gas bumi untuk keperluan domestik, guna mengurangi beban subsidi negara atas pemanfaatan bahan bakar minyak yang harganya terus melambung tinggi. Harga gas bumi domestik telah ditetapkan oleh pemerintah berdasarkan keekonomian biaya pengembangan lapangan gas, dalam hal ini ada komponen biaya hulu dan ada komponen biaya hilir. Komponen biaya hulu dalam pengembangan lapangan gas meliputi sunk cost, drilling cost, production facility cost, opex, abex, dan margin KKKS. Komponen ini dibagi dengan total cadangannya untuk mendapatkan biaya per unit energi (US$/MMbtu). Sedangkan komponen biaya hilir meliputi biaya pipa transmisi (tol fee), biaya pipa distribusi, dan margin harga hilir (margin transporter dan margin trader). Perangkat lunak dalam simulasi monte carlo ini menggunkan crystall ball, yang digunakan untuk memperoleh model distribusi dan nilai rata-rata dari setiap komponen biaya di hulu dan di hilir. Berdasarkan nilai rata-rata tiap komponen biaya tersebut akan didapatkan harga gas domestik sesuai dengan formula harga gas yang diskenariokan. Skenario dalam penelitian ini meliputi skenario harga gas dimana PLN membeli langsung dari KKKS, skenario harga gas dimana PLN membeli dari trader gas, dan skenario harga gas dimana PLN membeli gas LNG dari FSRU Nusantara Regas. Hasil dari penelitian ini berupa harga gas domestik untuk masing-masing skenario harga gas.
ABSTRACT
The domestic gas prices is one of the main problems in accelerating the utilization of natural gas for domestic needs, in order to reduce the subsidy burden of the state in using of fuel oil that the prices raise continuously. The domestic gas prices have been set by the government based on the economic cost of development gas field, in this case there is cost component in the upstream and downstream. The cost component in the upstream for development gas field include sunk costs, drilling costs, production facility cost, opex, abex, and KKKS margin. This components are divided by the total reserves to get costs of per unit energy (US$/MMbtu). While the cost components in the downstream include the cost of transmission pipeline (tol fee), the cost of distribution pipeline, and downstream price margin (transporter margins and trader margins). The Monte Carlo simulations in this study use the crystall ball as software, which is used to obtain the distribution model and the average value of each cost component in the upstream and downstream. Based on average value of each cost component will be obtained the domestic gas price refers to the gas price formula scripted. The scenario in this study consist of gas price scenario in which PLN buys direct from PSC, gas price scenario in which PLN buys from traders gas, and gas price scenario in which PLN buys gas from the LNG FSRU Nusantara Regas. The results on this study is the domestic gas price for every gas price scenario.
Depok: Fakultas Teknik Universitas Indonesia, 2013
T35906
UI - Tesis Membership  Universitas Indonesia Library
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Arfian Maulana Noer Ananda
Abstrak :
Penelitian ini menentukan harga gas bumi melalui pipa untuk rumah tangga di kota Balikpapan, Provinsi Kalimantan Timur. PT PTGN menyampaikan Usulan Harga Jual Gas Kota di wilayah Kota Balikpapan kepada BPH Migas selaku badan yang memiliki kewenangan dalam Penetapan Harga Gas Bumi untuk Rumah Tangga. Metode yang digunakan antara lain dengan melakukan survei dalam rangka memperoleh data harga yang berlaku dipasaran, metode what-if analysis untuk mendapatkan harga gas rumah tangga, dan metode market based pricing untuk membandingkan antara harga gas rumah tangga dengan harga LPG dipasaran. Berdasarkan hasil evaluasi perhitungan harga gas bumi untuk rumah tangga diperoleh Harga untuk RT-1 sebesar Rp.4,541. Untuk Harga RT-1 disandingkan dengan harga hasil survei LPG 3 Kg untuk HET sebesar Rp.4.010 /m3 dan Harga yang beredar dipasaran sebesar Rp.5.013 /m3. ......The study attempts to set the price of natural gas through pipelines for households in Balikpapan, Kalimantan Timur Province. PTGN proposed the price of natural gas through pipelines in Balikpapan to BPH Migas as the authorities to set the price of natural gas through pipelines for households. The methods of this research are survey to get the applicable price in the market, what-if analysis method to set the price of natural gas through pipelines for households, and market based pricing method to compare between the natural gas through pipelines and LPG price. Based on the results of the natural gas through pipelines for households calculation, RT-1 is Rp.4,541. The price of RT-1 compares to 3 kg LPG highest retail price is Rp.4.010 /m3 but the selling price is Rp.5.013 /m3.
Depok: Fakultas Teknik Universitas Indonesia, 2023
PR-pdf
UI - Tugas Akhir  Universitas Indonesia Library
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Maswardi Yusra
Abstrak :
Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan metode analisa kuantitatif dengan melakukan perhitungan keekonomian dan daya beli masyarakat pada 14 wilayah jargas Non-APBN yang dibangun pada tahun 2022. Hasil analisa daya beli masyarakat diperoleh rata-rata RT-1/PK-1 sebesar Rp. 5547/m3 dan RT-2/PK-2 sebesar Rp 7032/m3. Hasil analisa kelayakan ekonomi didapatkan bahwa jika IRR berdasarkan WACC = 12,65% diperoleh harga Rp.10.339/m3. Penelitian ini telah menerapkan kode etik dan etika profesi insinyur serta memperhatikan keselamatan, kesehatan, dan keamanan kerja dan lingkungan. Pada pekerjaan penelitian ini penulis bertugas sebagai anggota tim perhitungan harga keekonomian jargas Non APBN dan anggota tim persiapan dan pengawas kajian pengukuran daya beli masyarakat tahun 2022. ......This research was carried out using a quantitative analysis method by calculating the economic and purchasing power of the community in 14 Non-APBN gas network areas built in 2022. The results of the analysis of community purchasing power obtained an average RT-1/PK-1 of Rp. 5547/m3 and RT-2/PK-2 amounting to IDR 7032/m3. The results of the economic feasibility analysis show that if the IRR is based on WACC = 12.65%, the price is IDR 10,339/m3. This research has implemented the engineer's professional code of ethics and ethics and paid attention to work and environmental safety, health and security. In this research work the author served as a member of the non-APBN economic price calculation team and a member of the preparation and supervisory team for the study of measuring people's purchasing power in 2022.
Depok: Fakultas Teknik Universitas Indonesia, 2023
PR-pdf
UI - Tugas Akhir  Universitas Indonesia Library
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Andriany Nirmalakrisna
Abstrak :
Permasalahan industri gas domestik di Indonesia saat ini adalah ketidakpastian alokasi pasokan gas domestik, minimnya infrastruktur, serta permasalahan harga jual gas. Untuk meningkatkan alokasi gas industri, harga gas domestik seharusnya dinaikkan, sehingga disparitasnya tidak terlalu jauh dengan harga gas ekspor. Di sisi lain, adanya monopoli akses transportasi jalur pengangkutan gas di Indonesia menyebabkan industri harus membayar harga gas lebih mahal dari yang sewajarnya. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan simulasi untuk mendapatkan harga gas yang layak dalam rangka membantu Pemerintah dalam menetapkan harga gas agar tidak selalu terpaku pada harga gas yang ditetapkan oleh pedagang gas (trader) dan pengangkut gas (transporter). Metode yang digunakan dalam penentuan harga gas ini adalah metode Netback Value (NBV). Pengolahan data dalam penelitian ini menggunakan analisis ketidakpastian untuk mendapatkan validasi ketidakpastian dengan simulasi Monte Carlo menggunakan piranti lunak Crystal Ball. Berdasarkan penelitian, didapatkan rasio pembiayaan antara sektor hulu dan hilir untuk harga jual gas rekalkulasi dengan kondisi ideal (biaya transmisi jalur pipa Pertagas serta prediksi biaya distribusi didasarkan informasi laporan tahunan PGN) sebesar lebih dari satu atau mendekati satu. Hal ini masih wajar mengingat sektor hulu memiliki nilai investasi lebih tinggi untuk melakukan aktivitas ekplorasi dan produksi, dibandingkan dengan sektor hilir. Sementara itu, jika dibandingkan dengan harga jual gas bumi PGN baik untuk sektor listrik dan sektor industri non pupuk, terdapat perbedaan yang sangat signifikan sehingga menyebabkan rasio pembiayaan sektor hulu dan hilir tidak realistis.
Domestic gas industry?s problems in Indonesia are uncertain allocation for domestic gas supply, lack of infrastructure, and also gas price issue. To improve the gas allocation for domestic industrial sector, domestic gas prices should be raised, so that the disparity between domestic gas price and export gas price is not too far away. On the other hand, the existence of monopoly of gas trader and transporter in Indonesia caused the industry has to pay the price of gas more expensive than normal. In this study conducted a simulation to get decent gas prices in order to give recommendation to the Government in determining the price of gas that does not always get hung up on the price of gas that is determined by gas traders and transporters. The method used in determining the gas price is the Netback Value method (NBV). The data in this study is processed using uncertainty analysis to with Monte Carlo simulation using Crystal Ball software. Based on the study, the cost ratio between the upstream and downstream sectors for gas price recalculation with ideal conditions (using Pertagas pipeline transmission costs and distribution cost based on annual report of PGN) is more than one or close to one. It is still reasonable considering the upstream sector has a higher investment value for exploration and production activities than the downstream sector. Meanwhile, when compared with the gas price from PGN, there are very significant differences that cause the cost ratio of the upstream and downstream sector is not realistic.
Depok: Fakultas Teknik Universitas Indonesia, 2014
T42106
UI - Tesis Membership  Universitas Indonesia Library
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Indah Prasetyawati
Abstrak :
Industri nasional mengalami perlambatan pertumbuhan dan rendahnya daya saing yang diduga disebabkan oleh harga gas bumi yang tinggi. Pemerintah melakukan intervensi pada harga gas bumi melalui Kebijakan Harga Gas Bumi Tertentu (HGBT) sebagaimana diatur pada Perpres No. 121 Tahun 2020 tentang Penetapan Harga Gas Bumi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak dari Kebijakan HGBT pada perekonomian nasional dengan mempertimbangkan penurunan penerimaan negara sebagai kompensasi atas turunnya harga gas bumi pada industri. Dengan menggunakan model CGE, analisis dilakukan pada berbagai indikator perekonomian. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa terdapat penurunan GDP dalam jangka pendek sebesar 0,076% dan kenaikan GDP dalam jangka panjang sebesar 0,004%. ......National industry is facing slowing growth and low competitiveness, which is thought to be caused by high natural gas prices. Government intervenes in natural gas prices through the Certain Natural Gas Price Policy or “Kebijakan HGBT” as regulated in Presidential Regulation No. 121 of 2020 concerning Natural Gas Price Determination. This study aims to analyze the impact of HGBT Policy on the national economy by considering the decline in state revenues as compensation for the decline in natural gas prices in the industry. Using CGE model, analysis is carried out on various economic indicators. The results of the analysis show that there is a decrease in GDP in the short term by 0.076% and an increase in GDP in the long term by 0.004%.
Depok: Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Indonesia, 2022
T-pdf
UI - Tesis Membership  Universitas Indonesia Library
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Lisa Adhani
Abstrak :
[ABSTRAK
Kajian dilakukan dengan menganalisis seluruh komponen biaya yang mempengaruhi ketetapan harga CNG, dengan simulasi Monte Carlo dengan bantuan perangkat lunak Crystal Ball yang mengacu pada kebijakan pemerintah berupa Peraturan Menteri ESDM Nomor 19 Tahun 2010 yang telah menetapkan formula harga jual bahan bakar gas untuk transportasi dengan mempertimbangkan harga di titik penyerahan (hulu), toll fee, investasi SPBG, biaya pengoperasian dan pemeliharaan SPBG, margin dan pajak. Pada Kajian ini mengupas toll fee dengan memilih supply chain yang dianggap tepat untuk wilayah Jawa Bagian Barat. Hasil Kajian Harga CNG untuk Regional Jawa Bagian Barat, dimana simulasi dilakukan di wilayah DKI Jakarta didapatkan bahwa Keputusan Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Nomor: 2932 K/12/MEM/2010: ?Harga Jual Bahan Bakar Gas yang digunakan untuk Transportasi di Wilayah Jakarta termasuk Bogor, Bekasi, Depok dan Tangerang adalah Rp 3.100,00 (tiga ribu seratus rupiah) untuk tiap 1 (satu) Liter Setara Premium (LSP) termasuk pajak-pajak.? merupakan harga kompetitif yang dapat dilaksanakan untuk wilayah Jawa bagian Barat. Dilihat dari hasil rekalkulasi yaitu harga CNG pada tapping point Bitung sebesar $. 0.223 atau Rp. 2819,82 dan harga aggregasi sebesar Rp. 2737,58 dengan harga riil berada pada rentang harga Rp.1857,43 hingga Rp. 3890,32 (berdasarkan Indeks Harga Konsumen April 2015) dan pada wilayah taping poin Nagrak sebesar $. 0.209 atau Rp. 2631,02 dan harga aggregasi sebesar Rp. 2795,51 dengan harga riil berada pada rentang harga Rp.2227,59 hingga Rp. 4533.44.
ABSTRACT
The study was conducted by analyzing all the components that affect the cost of provision of CNG price, with a Monte Carlo simulation with the help of Crystal Ball software which refers to government policies such as the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 19 of 2010, which has set the pricing formula of gas fuel for transportation by considering the price at the point of delivery (upstream), toll fee, SPBGs investment, operating and maintenance costs SPBGs, margins and taxes. On This study peeling toll fee by choosing supply chain that is considered appropriate for the region Western of Java. Study results CNG price to Regional Java, where the simulation is done in Jakarta found that the Decree of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 2932 K / 12 / MEM / 2010: "Selling Price Gas Fuel used for transportation in Jakarta area including Bogor, Bekasi, Depok and Tangerang is $ 3100.00 (three thousand one hundred dollars) for every 1 (one) liter Premium Equivalent (LSP), including taxes. "a competitive price that can be implemented for the region western of Java. Judging from the results of recalculation is the price of CNG at the tapping point Bitung of $. 0.223 or Rp. 2819.82 and aggregation price of Rp. 2737.58 with the real price is in the range of price Rp.1857, 43 up to Rp. 3890.32 (based on the Consumer Price Index April 2015) and in the region of Nagrak tapping points. $.0.209 or Rp. 2631.02 and aggregation price of Rp. 2795.51 with the real price is in the range of price Rp.2227,59 up to Rp.4533.44. ;The study was conducted by analyzing all the components that affect the cost of provision of CNG price, with a Monte Carlo simulation with the help of Crystal Ball software which refers to government policies such as the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 19 of 2010, which has set the pricing formula of gas fuel for transportation by considering the price at the point of delivery (upstream), toll fee, SPBGs investment, operating and maintenance costs SPBGs, margins and taxes. On This study peeling toll fee by choosing supply chain that is considered appropriate for the region Western of Java. Study results CNG price to Regional Java, where the simulation is done in Jakarta found that the Decree of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 2932 K / 12 / MEM / 2010: "Selling Price Gas Fuel used for transportation in Jakarta area including Bogor, Bekasi, Depok and Tangerang is $ 3100.00 (three thousand one hundred dollars) for every 1 (one) liter Premium Equivalent (LSP), including taxes. "a competitive price that can be implemented for the region western of Java. Judging from the results of recalculation is the price of CNG at the tapping point Bitung of $. 0.223 or Rp. 2819.82 and aggregation price of Rp. 2737.58 with the real price is in the range of price Rp.1857, 43 up to Rp. 3890.32 (based on the Consumer Price Index April 2015) and in the region of Nagrak tapping points. $.0.209 or Rp. 2631.02 and aggregation price of Rp. 2795.51 with the real price is in the range of price Rp.2227,59 up to Rp.4533.44. ;The study was conducted by analyzing all the components that affect the cost of provision of CNG price, with a Monte Carlo simulation with the help of Crystal Ball software which refers to government policies such as the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 19 of 2010, which has set the pricing formula of gas fuel for transportation by considering the price at the point of delivery (upstream), toll fee, SPBGs investment, operating and maintenance costs SPBGs, margins and taxes. On This study peeling toll fee by choosing supply chain that is considered appropriate for the region Western of Java. Study results CNG price to Regional Java, where the simulation is done in Jakarta found that the Decree of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 2932 K / 12 / MEM / 2010: "Selling Price Gas Fuel used for transportation in Jakarta area including Bogor, Bekasi, Depok and Tangerang is $ 3100.00 (three thousand one hundred dollars) for every 1 (one) liter Premium Equivalent (LSP), including taxes. "a competitive price that can be implemented for the region western of Java. Judging from the results of recalculation is the price of CNG at the tapping point Bitung of $. 0.223 or Rp. 2819.82 and aggregation price of Rp. 2737.58 with the real price is in the range of price Rp.1857, 43 up to Rp. 3890.32 (based on the Consumer Price Index April 2015) and in the region of Nagrak tapping points. $.0.209 or Rp. 2631.02 and aggregation price of Rp. 2795.51 with the real price is in the range of price Rp.2227,59 up to Rp.4533.44. , The study was conducted by analyzing all the components that affect the cost of provision of CNG price, with a Monte Carlo simulation with the help of Crystal Ball software which refers to government policies such as the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 19 of 2010, which has set the pricing formula of gas fuel for transportation by considering the price at the point of delivery (upstream), toll fee, SPBGs investment, operating and maintenance costs SPBGs, margins and taxes. On This study peeling toll fee by choosing supply chain that is considered appropriate for the region Western of Java. Study results CNG price to Regional Java, where the simulation is done in Jakarta found that the Decree of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources No. 2932 K / 12 / MEM / 2010: "Selling Price Gas Fuel used for transportation in Jakarta area including Bogor, Bekasi, Depok and Tangerang is $ 3100.00 (three thousand one hundred dollars) for every 1 (one) liter Premium Equivalent (LSP), including taxes. "a competitive price that can be implemented for the region western of Java. Judging from the results of recalculation is the price of CNG at the tapping point Bitung of $. 0.223 or Rp. 2819.82 and aggregation price of Rp. 2737.58 with the real price is in the range of price Rp.1857, 43 up to Rp. 3890.32 (based on the Consumer Price Index April 2015) and in the region of Nagrak tapping points. $.0.209 or Rp. 2631.02 and aggregation price of Rp. 2795.51 with the real price is in the range of price Rp.2227,59 up to Rp.4533.44. ]
2015
T44493
UI - Tesis Membership  Universitas Indonesia Library
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Rheza Budi Aditya
Abstrak :
Rencana kebijakan energi nasional Indonesia hingga tahun 2050 yang berencana untuk menurunkan pemakaian bahan bakar minyak serta batubara dengan mengalihkannya ke energi yang lebih ramah lingkungan yaitu gas. Gas yang dalam proses distribusinya memerlukan penanganan serta infrastruktur khusus menjadi kendala utama dalam masih terkendalanya penyerapan bahan bakar gas. Salah satu metoda dalam pendistribusian gas adalah dengan meliquifikasi terlebih dahulu menjadi LNG. Pada penelitian ini pendistribusian LNG akan menggunakan sistem Floating Storage Regasification Unit FSRU yang berfungsi sebagai tempat penyimpanan maupun untuk mengubah LNG menjadi gas kembali. Wilayah kajian yang digunakan adalah Jawa Tengah sedangkan LNG diperoleh dari LNG Plant Tangguh, pada penelitian ini akan dilakukan perhitungan keekonomian untuk melihat kelayakan dari penggunaan FSRU dalam pemenuhan kebutuhan energi di Jawa Tengah. Dari perhitungan keekonomian tersebut akan dilihat harga jual gas minimum kepada konsumen serta batas harga pembelian LNG untuk desain serta skenario yang digunakan pada penelitian ini. Hasil dari perhitungan keekonomian tersebut diperoleh bahwa FSRU dapat diimplementasikan, ditunjukkan dengan nilai IRR yang melebihi 12,5 . Penyesuaian harga jual gas dilakukan ketika penyerapan gas kurang optimal maupun ketika biaya produksi LNG tersebut meningkat dengan tetap mempertimbangkan kepentingan konsumen maupun investor.
Indonesia national energy plan is planning to reduce oil and coal usage until 2050, and change it to a cleaner energy like gas. Distribution of gas that needs special treatments and infrastructures, become the main reasons gas consumptions is still low. One of the method for gas distributions is liquefying the gas first to become LNG. In this experiment LNG distribution will be using a Floating Storage Regasification Unit FSRU , which can be used as a LNG storage and also to return the state of LNG into gas. The area of study in this experiment is in Central Java while LNG comes from Tangguh LNG Plant, there will be economic calculations to check the feasibility of using FSRU to comply with energy demand in Central Java. The results from that calculations are minimum selling price of gas for consumer and also maksimum LNG buying price for design and scenario that used in this experiment. Results from economic calculations show that FSRU can be implemented in Central Java, as shown by IRR from calculations is higher than 12.5. Adjustments of gas selling price used when the usage is not optimal or when cost of LNG production increase while contemplate with consumer rsquo s and investor rsquo s interests.
Depok: Fakultas Teknik Universitas Indonesia, 2018
T49157
UI - Tesis Membership  Universitas Indonesia Library
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Rudyanto
Abstrak :
Dalam penelitian ini akan dilakukan pengembangan formula perhitungan harga Gas Bumi melalui pipa gas yang digunakan sebagai umpan pada Kilang LPG High Recovery. Penentuan harga gas bumi untuk kilang LPG di Indonesia saat ini menggunakan basis energi yang terkandung dalam gas bumi dan belum memasukkan faktor komposisi gas. Prinsip keadilan dianggap telah tercapai dengan keseragaman harga gas bumi padahal dalam prakteknya perhitungan berdasarkan komposisi LPG yang ada pada gas bumi bisa mendapatkan keuntungan baik bagi produsen maupun offtaker gas. Metode yang digunakan adalah dengan menghitung harga gas dari sisi produsen sebagai willingness to sell WTS dan harga gas dari sisi offtaker gas sebagai willingness to pay WTP. Titik temu harga gas dibuat dalam suatu formula yang dikembangkan terindeks pada harga LPG Aramco dan Minyak Mentah Indonesia ICP. Usulan harga gas baru dilakukan dengan mengembangkan formula harga awal gas = A 0.5 P-P1 - C-C1 menjadi harga gas = a x A b x B c x C dimana : A = Harga dasar gas Base Price , B = Harga LPG Aramco dikurangi Cost Processing LPG Biaya Capex, Opex, depresiasi , C = Harga kondensat mengacu pada 75 harga minyak mentah Indonesia, a = fraksi komponen C1 dan C2 dalam persen, b = fraksi komponen C3 dan C4 dalam persen, c = fraksi kondensat dalam persen, a b c = 100. Dari hasil perhitungan sensitivitas didapat kenaikan harga gas linear terhadap kenaikan harga LPG Aramco sehingga lebih menguntungkan baik bagi produsen maupun offtaker gas. ......In this research, we will develop the formula for calculating the price of Natural Gas through gas pipeline which is used as feed for LPG High Recovery Plant.The determination of natural gas price for LPG refinery in Indonesia currently uses the energy base contained in natural gas and has not yet entered the gas composition factor. The principle of justice is considered to have been achieved with the uniformity of natural gas prices whereas in practice the calculations based on the existing LPG composition on natural gas can benefit both the producers and offtakers of gas. The method used is to calculate the gas price from the producer side as willingness to sell WTS and gas price from the side offtaker gas as willingness to pay WTP. The gas price meeting point is made in a formulation developed indexed on LPG Aramco and Indonesian Crude Prices ICP. The proposed new gas price is made by developing the preliminary gas pricing formula A 0.5 P P1 C C1 into the gas price ax A b x B c x C where A Gas base price, B Aramco LPG Price minus Cost Processing LPG Cost of Capex, Opex, depreciation , C Condensate price refers to 75 of Indonesia crude oil price. a fraction of components C1 and C2 in percent, b fraction of C3 and C4 components in percent, c fraction of condensate in percent, a b c 100 . From the calculation of sensitivity, gas prices rose linearly to Aramco LPG price increase so it is more profitable for both the producers and the gas offtaker.
Depok: Fakultas Teknik Universitas Indonesia, 2018
T50952
UI - Tesis Membership  Universitas Indonesia Library
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Agung Kurniawan
Abstrak :
Artikel ini menganalisis hubungan antara harga minyak mentah, gas alam dan saham berkenaan dengan periode sebelum, ketika dan setelah krisis keuangan global. Kami menemukan bahwa harga minyak secara umum mempengaruhi harga pasar gas alam setelah periode krisis tahun 2008. Lebih lanjut lagi, harga gas alam secara sepihak mempengaruhi harga saham sebelum dan sesudah periode krisis tahun 2008 tetapi tidak berpengaruh ketika dalam periode krisis. Kami juga menyajikan bukti dampak spillover atas turunnya harga saham terhadap turunnya harga minyak mentah. Hasil ini merupakan bukti baru atas adanya finansialisasi terhadap pasar minyak setelah krisis keuangan global. Namun, hasil analisis menunjukkan tidak adanya indikasi finansialisasi atas gas alam. ......This paper analyze the relationship between crude oil, natural gas and stock prices with respect to the period before, during and after global financial crisis. We find that oil price generally affects gas market after the 2008 crisis period. Furthermore, we also find that gas market unilaterally affects stock market before and after but not during the 2008 recession. We also provide new evidence of the spillover impact from decreasing price stock to decreasing price of oil. This result serves as a new proof of the financialization of oil market after the global financial crisis. However, our result shows there is no indication of financialization of the gas market.
Depok: Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Indonesia, 2019
T55259
UI - Tesis Membership  Universitas Indonesia Library
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Ikawati
Abstrak :
Pemerintah Indonesia melakukan pengaturan harga jual gas bumi melalui pipa pada kegiatan usaha hilir minyak dan gas bumi melalui Peraturan Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral No. 58 tahun 2017. Peraturan tersebut belum mempertimbangkan daya beli konsumen gas bumi serta zona penetapan harga jual gas bumi ketika harga gas tersebut akan diterapkan. Tujuan studi ini adalah melakukan optimalisasi harga jual gas bumi hilir untuk sektor industri pada wilayah niaga yang ada di 46 kabupaten/kota. Optimalisasi dilakukan dengan memperhitungkan zona penetapan harga gas, net back produsen dan social welfare konsumen. Net back diperoleh dengan mengurangkan revenue penjualan gas bumi dengan biaya produksinya dari hulu sampai dengan hilir. Sedangkan social welfare diperoleh dari willingness to pay konsumen industri dikurangi harga jual gas bumi hilir. Perhitungan harga gas optimal dilakukan dengan metode optimasi multi obyektif untuk memperoleh titik optimum antara fungsi net back dan social welfare. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa zona gas pool merupakan zona penetapan harga jual gas bumi hilir yang optimal karena memberikan efek minimal bagi konsumen industri dan memberikan kemudahan implementasi bagi pemerintah dan badan usaha pemegang izin usaha niaga gas bumi. Selain itu, harga di gas pool dapat mencakup beberapa wilayah jaringan distribusi dengan tingkat kematangan pasar yang berbeda. Harga gas optimal pada zona gas pool berada pada rentang 8,63-16,99 USD/MMBTU dimana sebagian besar dari harga gas dari formula peraturan berada dalam rentang tersebut. ......Indonesia regulates the pipeline gas selling price in oil and gas downstream business activities by issuing the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation Number 58 of 2017. It has formulated the gas price by calculating the trading companies' internal rate of return and margin but has not yet considered the purchasing power of their consumers and the gas price zone determination for when the gas price will be implemented. The study aims to optimize the gas price for industrial sector in the existing sales areas in 46 districts. The optimization is conducted by considering the pricing zones, producer net backs, and consumer social welfare. Net back value is calculated by subtracting natural gas sales revenue with upstream and downstream production costs. Social welfare value is calculated from the willingness to pay of industrial consumers minus the pipeline gas selling price. The optimal gas price is calculated using multi-objective optimization method to obtain the optimum point between the net back and social welfare functions. The study found that the gas pool is an optimal pricing zone due to have minimum effect for consumers and easy implementation for trading gas companies and government. The gas pool price can cover several cities that have different levels of market maturity. The optimal gas price in gas pool is around 8,63-16,99 USD/MMBTU that most of gas price from the regulation formulation is on this range.
Depok: Fakultas Teknik Universitas Indonesia, 2020
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