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Abstrak :
Runtun waktu adalah sekumpulan pengamatan kuantitatif dari sebuah kejadian yang diambil berturut-turut dengan periode yang sama. Dalam banyak penerapan, diperlukan runtun waktu dengan peubah acak diskrit yang dapat menangani pengamatan berupa count data. Salah satu model runtun waktu yang menangani count data adalah model runtun waktu Integer-valued Autoregressive order satu atau disebut INAR(1). Model ini dibangun dengan binomial thinning operator yang mengatasi masalah multiplikasi skalar dengan menerapkan operasi probabilisitik. Model INAR(1) yang umum memiliki suku pembaharuan berdistribusi Poisson dan memiliki asumsi equidispersi dimana variansi sama dengan mean pada count datanya. Akan tetapi banyak keadaan count data yang memiliki variansi yang lebih besar daripada mean yang disebut overdispersi. Salah satu penyebab overdispersi adalah banyaknya nilai nol yang berlebih pada count data. Sehingga, penggunaan model dengan asumsi equidispersi dapat mengakibatkan estimasi parameter yang kurang tepat dan hasil prediksi yang kurang valid. Oleh karena itu, salah satu model runtun waktu yang dapat menangani kasus overdispersi, yaitu model INAR(1) dengan suku pembaharuan berdistribusi Geometrik atau disebut juga INARG(1). Dalam penelitian ini, pertama dibahas mengenai binomial thinning operator, indeks dispersi dan properti pada model INARG(1). Lalu, penaksiran parameter model dilakukan menggunakan metode conditional least square. Selanjutnya, model yang didapat digunakan untuk mencari nilai ramalan pada periode selanjutnya menggunakan metode peramalan nilai tengah. Model runtun waktu INARG(1) ini diaplikasikan pada data jumlah kejahatan seksual yang dilaporkan terjadi di 21st police car beat street in Pittsburgh setiap bulannya, dari Januari 1990 hingga Desember 2001. ......Time series is a set of quantitative observations of an event taken consecutively over the same period. In many applications, a time series with discrete random variables is needed that can handle observations in the form of count data. One of the time series model that handles count data is the first-order integer-valued Autoregressive time series model, or called INAR(1). This model is built with a binomial thinning operator that overcomes scalar multiplication problems by applying probabilistic operations. INAR(1) model has a Poisson distribution innovations, and the model assumes equidispersion where the variance is equal to the mean in the data count. However, in many situations, the data count has a more significant variance than the mean and it called overdispersion. One of the causes of overdispersion is the excessive number of zeros in the count data. Thus, the use of the equidispersion model can lead to inaccurate parameter estimates and invalid prediction results. Therefore, one of the time series model discussed used INAR(1) with geometric innovations or called INARG(1), where the time series model is suitable for modeling overdispersion cases. In this research, we discuss about binomial thinning operator, also the dispersion and property in INARG(1) model. Then, the model parameter estimates were determined using the Conditional Least Square method. Besides, the model is used to find the predicted value for the next period. The forecasting method in INARG(1) uses median forecasting by calculating the conditional probability of each possible nonnegative integer value. The INARG(1) time series model is applied to data on the number of reported sexual crimes occurring at the 21st police car beat street in Pittsburgh each month, from January 1990 to December 2001.

Abstrak :
Direktorat Lalu Lintas Polda Jatim mencatat angka kecelakaan di jalan tol Trans Jawa masih tinggi diikuti dengan peningkatan jumlah korban jiwa, luka berat dan luka ringan. Kecelakaan di Tol Nganjuk menuju Jombang juga cukup tinggi pada periode 2018-2020 yaitu 87 kasus dengan 22 kasus pada 2018, 37 kasus pada 2019, dan pada 2020 sebanyak 28 kasus kecelakaan. Banyaknya kecelakaan lalu lintas terjadi karena kelalaian pengemudi dan kendaraan yang tidak layak, serta sedikitnya faktor karena kondisi jalan dan lingkungan. Tingginya fatalitas korban kecelakaan pada ruas jalan tol perlu dikaji untuk berbagai faktor infrastruktur jalan dan lingkungan yang dapat mempengaruhi terjadinya kecelakaan berdasarkan analisis keselamatan jalan. Oleh karena itu, dibuatlah penelitian yang berjudul “Analisis Pengaruh Faktor Geometrik dan Lingkungan terhadap Jumlah Korban Kecelakaan di Jalan Tol”. Didapatkan hubungan antara faktor geometrik dari infrastruktur dan lingkungan jalan, serta karakteristik lalu lintas terhadap Korban Kecelakaan terdistribusi dengan pendekatan poisson. Variabel bebas yang berpengaruh signifikan yaitu Akses ops, Tipe Objek Sisi Jalan, Lengkungan dan Mean Speed dengan pengaruh sebesar 21,29 % terhadap jumlah korban kecelakaan. Rekomendasi dapat dilakukan dengan menciptakan desain jalan yang berkeselamatan dan memaafkan (forgiving road) melalui faktor geometrik dan lingkungan yang berpengaruh signifikan di ruas jalan Tol Nganjuk – Jombang. ......The Directorate of Traffic for the East Java Regional Police noted that the number of accidents on the Transjawa toll road was still high, followed by an increase in the number of fatalities, serious injuries and minor injuries. Accidents on the Nganjuk Toll Road to Jombang were also quite high in the 2018-2020 period, namely 87 cases with 22 cases in 2018, 37 cases in 2019, and in 2020 there were 28 accident cases. Many traffic accidents occur due to negligence of drivers and improper vehicles, as well as a few factors due to road and environmental conditions. The high fatality of accident victims on toll roads needs to be studied for various road infrastructure and environmental factors that can affect the occurrence of accidents based on road safety analysis. Therefore, a research entitled "Analysis of Geometric and Environmental Factors on Numre of Accident Victims on Toll Roads" was made. There is a relationship between the geometric factors of the road infrastructure and environment, as well as the traffic characteristics of the Accident Victims distributed using the Poisson approach. Independent variables that have a significant effect are ops access, type of roadside object, curvature and mean speed with an effect of 21.29% on the number of accident victims. Recommendations can be made by creating a road design that is safe and forgiving (forgiving road) through geometric and environmental factors that have a significant effect on the Nganjuk - Jombang toll road.

Abstrak :
Indonesia yang memiliki kondisi geografis yang sebagian besar terdiri dari perbukitan dan pegunungan dengan geometrik jalan tanjakan maupun turunan. Kriteria teknis yang membedakan kategori medan tersebut berupa angka lengkung horizontal serta vertikal alinyemen jalan (Bendiness dan hilliness) Salah satunya berada di kawasan Wonosobo, Jawa Tengah. Salah satu daerah di Jawa Tengah yang memiliki kondisi geografis jalan pegunungan. Kecelakaan yang sering terjadi pada Turunan dan Tanjakan. Sehingga pada penelitian ini, untuk menganalisa model hubungan Alinyemen Vertikal yaitu Bendiness dan Hilliness dan potensi kecelakaan yang berada di daerah Pegunungan maupun perbukitan sehingga dapat menekan serta mengurangi tingginya angka kecelakaan pada daerah pegunungan. Didapatkan hubungan antara variabel geometrik jalan maupun karakteristik lalu lintas terhadap jumlah terjadinya kecelakaan secara total maupun meninggal dunia berdasarkan pendekatan binomial negatif. Berdasarkan pemodelan yang telah dilakukan sebelumnya diperoleh variabel prediktor yang berpengaruh adalah Average Gradien, Lebar Rata, Bendiness, Volume, Percent Truck, dan Slow Truck yang meningkatkan kecelakaan. Sedangkan untuk kecelakaan meninggal dunia diperoleh variabel prediktor yang berpengaruh adalah Average Gradien, Volume, Percent Truck, dan Slow Truck yang meningkatkan kecelakaan meninggal dunia. ......Indonesia, which has geographical conditions that mostly consist of hills and mountains with geometric roads going up and down. The technical criteria that distinguish these terrain categories are the horizontal and vertical curves of the road alignment (Bendiness and hilliness). One of them is in the Wonosobo area, Central Java. One of the areas in Central Java which has the geographical conditions of mountain roads. Accidents that often occur on Derivatives and Ascents. So in this study, to analyze the Vertical Alignment relationship model, namely Bendiness and hilliness and the potential for accidents in mountainous and hilly areas so that it can suppress and reduce the high number of accidents in mountainous areas. There is a relationship between road geometric variables and traffic characteristics to the total number of accidents and deaths based on the negative binomial approach. Based on the modeling that has been done before, it is obtained that the influential predictor variables are Average Gradien, Average Width, Bendiness, Volume, Percent Trucks, and Slow Trucks which increase accidents. Meanwhile, for fatal accidents, the influential predictor variables were Average Gradien, Volume, Percent Trucks, and Slow Trucks which increased the number of fatal accidents.

Abstrak :
Jika diberikan parabola dan titik pada bidang maka dapat dikonstruksi garis normal pada parabola melalui titik tersebut sebanyak satu atau dua atau tiga tergantung posisi titik terhadap parabola. Pada skripsi ini disajikan cara mengkonstruksi garis normal dan dasar teori yang melandasinya. Untuk mempermudah dan memperjelas proses konstruksi dan perhitungan yang sulit digunakan Mathematica.

Abstrak :
This study reports a novel strategy for minimizing torque ripple in a radial flux inset permanent magnet (RFIPM) generator by using a geometric modification of the magnet poles. We simulate the design of three different types of edge-rounded magnet (ERM) poles using finite element method magnetics (FEMM) software for a 16 poles and 24 slots RFIPM generator. We found that the edge-rounding of magnet poles significantly lowered the torque ripple of the generator with a reduction of about 74% (torque ripple of 7.76%). In addition, the modified RFIPM generator exhibited enhanced flux density uniformity in the air-gap of the generator (up to ~ 48.8%), leading to a smoother line of flux density.

Abstrak :
Urban road improvement programs, such as geometric intersection improvement or recalculation of cycle time for traffic lights, should include road safety and accessibility considerations. These components could be evaluated in a short time without waiting for accident data from police departments or accident events by using a tool known as a traffic conflict study. With a traffic conflict analysis, the effectiveness of any road improvement could be evaluated, and any traffic event involving two or more vehicles, or single vehicles taking evasive action to avoid crashes, could be investigated. Traffic conflict studies have been used in many countries, but less extensively for analyzing road improvement projects. This paper describes traffic conflict studies which have been applied at intersections in Bandung, resulting in a new Special Stopping Space (SSS) for motorcycles at a major intersection, intersection design improvements, and traffic management improvements at intersections. This research shows the applicability of the traffic conflict study technique to road facility improvement projects in Indonesia.

Abstrak :
A median is required for a two-way road to separate the opposite traffic and prevent head-on collisions. In road capacity calculation, the median factor contributes in terms of its existence regardless of the difference in median types. Road capacity is determined by a number of geometric factors such as road types, width of carriageway, shoulder/curb characteristics, and the presence/absence of medians, etc. The contributions of these factors are represented by the coefficients in the capacity calculations. Despite the different types of medians, the Indonesian Highway Capacity Manual (IHCM) does not adopt different coefficients to accommodate the effects in the capacity. The aim of this study is to obtain an adjustment factor for road capacity calculation based on median types. The method of this study adopts video recordings of real traffic moving along three different types of medians: raised medians, fenced medians, and line medians. As it is assumed that the effects of different median types are expressed in the vehicles’ safety distances from medians, the capacity of the road will also vary by types of medians. The adjustment coefficients for roads with raised medians, fenced medians, and line medians obtained are: 0.79, 0.78, and 0.81, respectively. The results of this study confirm that in addition to the presence of the medians, the types should essentially be considered in calculating the road capacity. The result of this study will contribute to the enrichment of the road capacity calculation in the IHCM.