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"Dalam industri perbankan di Indonesia khususnya, pengembangan dari pola-pola manajemen resiko telah mengalami kemajuan yang sangat pesat. Hal ini merupakan akibat dari krisis ekonomi yang terjadi pada tahun 1997 di Indonesia, di mana dunia perbankan mengalami pukulan yang sangat hebat di kala itu.Namun pembahasan manajemen resiko seringkali melupakan hal penting lainnya yang perlu diperhatikan oleh industri perbankan, yaitu manajemen kinerja, padahal manajemen resiko memiliki kaitan yang sangat erat terhadap manajemen kinerja, bahkan tidak dapat dipisahkan. Keterkaitan ini terjadi karena resiko yang diambil menyebabkan bank perlu mengambil profitabilitas untuk dapat menutupi kemungkinan kerugian yang dapat timbul akibat resiko yang diembannya itu.Praktek manajemen resiko dan manajemen kinerja di industri perbankan memerlukan perangkat yang mampu menghubungkan antara manajemen resiko dan kinerja di tingkat unit bisnis dengan orientasi global agar tercipta mata rantai yang tidak terputus. Salah satu perangkat tersebut adalah sistem Fund Transfer Pricing (FTP).Penulisan karya akhir ini akan mencoba untuk memberikan gambaran mengenai proses FTP yang telah berjalan pada bank XYZ, dan mencoba untuk membandingkannya dengan konsep FTP secara teoritis. Berbagai kendala yang dihadapi, pilihan yang dilakukan, justifikasi serta implikasinya dan solusi alternatif yang mungkin diterapkan dalam implementasi sistem tersebut akan dibahas dalam karya akhir ini.

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In Indonesian Banking Industry, the development of risk management method has growing very fast. This caused by the economic crisis which happened in 1997. At that time, banking industry got a difficult time.

Sometimes in Risk Management implementation forgets the other important thing that needs to mention in Banking Industry, such as Performance Management. Performance Management and Risk Management have tight relationship, even cannot separated. This relationship happened because of the risk that Bank has taken should cover with number of profit.

This relationship between Risk Management and Performance Management need tools to make the relationship connected in business unit with the global orientation. One of the tools is Fund Transfer Pricing system.

This thesis will try to give an illustration about FTP daily process in Bank XYZ, and try to compare with FTP process theoretical, including the problem, option, justification, implication and alternative solution that probably to implement."

"Industri perminyakan di Indonesia sudah dimulai sejak tahun 1940-an oleh perusahaan Belanda. Ini bisa dilihat terdapatnya lapangan-lapangan minyak tua yang terdapat pada beberapa daerah di Indonesia. Setelah Indonesia merdeka lapangan-lapangan tersebut dinasionalisasikan oleh pemerintah.Saat ini bisnis perminyakan didominasi oleh perdagangan yang bertujuan untuk penyediaan Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM) bagi kebutuhan nasional, maupun kepentingan ekspor bagi yang bertujuan mendapatkan devisa. Dalam melakukan ekspor BBM pendapatan akan sangat tergantung pada harga yang berlaku di pasar, sehingga terdapat risiko ketidakpastian pendapatan hasil ekspor.Hal ini merupakan suatu risiko pasar yang didefinisikan sebagai risiko yang mungkin timbul karena adanya pergerakan variabel pasar (adverse movement) dari ekspor yang dilakukan dan dapat menimbulkan kerugian terhadap perusahaan. Dalam penelitian ini komponen yang dijadikan obyek penelitian adalah risiko harga BBM.Pengukuran risiko pasar dapat dilakukan dengan mempergunakan standard approach atau internal model. Penerapan internal model diharuskan mempergunakan pendekatan Value at Risk (VaR). Dalam hal ini VaR dapat mengukur potensi kerugian maksimal yang mungkin terjadi dalam selang waktu tertentu dengan confidence level tertentu serta pada kondisi pasar yang normal.Pada penelitian yang dilakukan, digunakan pendekatan Riskmetrics dalam mengukur risiko harga dengan metode Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) sesuai dengan hasil pengujian data yang ada.Untuk mengetahui mengetahui karakteristik data return telah dilakukan pengujian data dengan Cara :? Stationerry Test dengan ADF test.? Uji normalitas data dengan Jarque Bera? White Heteroscedastic TestBerdasarkan uji data yang dilakukan, diperoleh bahwa metode yang tepat untuk melakukan forecasting volatilitas return harga tersebut adalah standar normal dan EWMA. Dan hasil perhitungan volatilitas tersebut maka dapat diukur VaR harian dengan tingkat keyakinan 95% dan 99% pada holding period satu hari.Langkah selanjutnya adalah dilakukan uji validasi model berdasarkan Kupiec Test dengan Total Number of Failure (TNoF) dan Time until First Failure (TUFF). Setelah dilakukan uji validasi pada model deviasi standar dan EWMA maka dapat disimpulkan hasil pengukuran dengan metode tersebut valid. Dapat diartikan bahwa nilai VaR yang dihasilkan dapat menangkap semua pergerakan actual loss selama penelitian.Berdasarkan pengamatan yang dilakukan selama periode penelitian telah diketahui kerugian maksimum pada ekspor yang dapat terjadi. Hal ini hares menjadi perhatian pihak manajemen perusahaan, karena hares segera diambil langkah-langkah untuk mengantisipasi kerugian yang mungkin terjadi.

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Oil industry in Indonesia has begun since 1940's by the Dutch government. It was able to be seen with many old oil fields found at some areas in Indonesia. After Indonesia was free the fields were nationalized by the government.

Currently oil business is dominated by trading which having a goal to supply the Refined Fuel Oil (BBM) for national needs, or for export interest to obtain a foreign exchange. In doing export the BBM, the income will depend on prevailing price in the market, so it was found the income uncertainty risk of the result of export.

In this case the market risk is defined as the risk may arise because any adverse movement from export to be clone and can arise the loss for a company. In this research, we used the research of the price risk of the BBM.

Determination of the market risk can be done by using standard approach or internal model. Applying the internal model is required to use the Value at Risk approach (VaR). In this case VaR can determine the maximal loss potency maybe occurred in several time with certain confidence level and in normal market condition.

Research was carried out by using riskmetrics approach to determine the price risk with the Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) method in accordance with the result of existing examining of the data.

To know the characteristics of the data return has been carried out examining of the data in a way:

a. Stationery Test with ADF Test.

b. Data Normality Test with Jarque Bera

c. White Heteroscedastic Test

Based on the data test to be done, it was found that the appropriate method to carry out forecasting volatility return the price is normal standard and EWMA. Of the result of calculation of the volatility and it was able to be determined the daily VaR with certainty level 95% and 99% at holding period one day.

The next step is carried out validation test of model based on the Kupicc Test with Total Number of Failure (TNoF) and Time until First Failure (TUFF)_ After being carried out the validation test on standard deviation model and EWMA and can be concluded the result of calculation with the method is valid. It was able to be meant that VaR value which is obtained can handle all actual losses movement during the research.

Based on the observation to be done during the research it was known the maximum loss on export which can be occurred. In this case must be concern for company management, because it must immediately be taken the steps to anticipate the loss maybe occurred."

"Dalam rangka mewujudkan sistem pembayaran yang efisien, cepat, aman dan handal, Bank Indonesia selaku Bank Sentral telah menerapkan sistem pembayaran berupa Real-Time Gross Settlement (RTGS). Sistem ini telah diterapkan hampir disebagian besar wilayah Asia Pasifik yang meliputi Hong Kong, Korea, Australia, China, New Zealand, dan Thailand. Di Indonesia sistem ini dikenal dengan sebutan BI-RTGS.Selain sistem BI-RTGS, Bank Indonesia juga memberikan sistem pembayaran nasional berupa Sistem Kliring Nasional Bank Indonesia (SKNBI). Diharapkan melalui kedua sistem tersebut akan tercipta pembayaran yang efisien, cepat, aman dan handal.Peraturan Bank Indonesia (PBI) Nomor 6/8/PBI/2004 tanggal 11 Maret 2004 tentang Sistem BI-RTGS dan PBI Nomor 7/18/PBI/2005 tanggal 22 Juli 2005 tentang SKNBI telah mengadopsi standar international business practice maupun core principle BIS. Dengan demikian Bank XYZ sebagai peserta sistem BI-RTGS dan SKNBI wajib tunduk kepada kedua PBI tersebut di atas dan sudah barang tentu menimbulkan konsekuensi yaitu timtutan agar pegawai Bank XYZ yang ditempatkan pada operasional sistem pembayaran bekerja lebih teliti, hati-hati dan seksama agar dapat meminimalkan atau meniadakan risiko yang mungkin dapat muncul dalam pelaksanaan transfer dana melalui kedua sistem dimaksud.Kesalahan pengiriman dana untuk rekening atau nama nasabah penerima yang dituju dipeserta penerima ataupun kesalahan dalam nilai nominal dan double pengiriman adalah beberapa contoh dari risiko operasional dari sisi peserta pengirim, sedangkan kesalahan dalam menentukan judgement terhadap perintah kiriman dana masuk dari peserta pengirim merupakan contoh risiko operasional dari sisi peserta penerima.Adanya kewajiban dari peserta pengirim untuk menerbitkan perintah kiriman dana baru kepada rekening yang dituju atau nasabah penenma yang benar tanpa menunggu pengembalian dana membuat pengalokasian dana cadangan untuk risiko operasional sangat penting. Besarnya alokasi dana cadangan ini harus dihitung dengan suatu metode pendekatan yang dikenal dengan sebutan Value at Risk (VaR).Pengukuran VaR untuk risiko operasional dapat dilakukan dengan beberapa metode pendekatan dan yang sederhana, sedikit komplek, dan sangat komplek. Tingkat keakuratan pengukuran terhadap aktual loss berbanding lurus dengan tingkat kompleksitas metode yang diterapkan. Adapun metode pengukuran risiko operasional dibagi menjadi 2, yaitu metode Standard dan Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA). Metode Standard terdiri dari Basic Indicator Approach (BIA), Standardized Approach (SA), Alternative Standardized Approach (ASA). Sedangkan AMA terdiri dari Internal Measurement Approach (IMA), Loss Distribution Approach (LDA), Scoreboard Approach, Bootstrapping Approach, Bayesian Method, dan Extreme Value Theory ( EVT).Metode AMA adalah metode yang dianggap menghasilkan pengukuran risiko operasional yang lebih baik yang dapat digunakan bagi perusahaan maupun perbankan dibandingkan dengan metode-metode lainnya seperti BIA, SA, ASA. Metode AMA menggunakan pendekatan internal dalam mengukur risiko operasional, sehingga metode ini terlepas dan aturan Basel.Dalam mengukur risiko operasional perusahaan, LDA mengharuskan untuk menggunakan data kerugian operasional intemal perusahaan masing-masing. Data kerugian tersebut dikelompokkan menjadi data iiekuensi kejadian dan data severitas kerugian. Dalam metode LDA, terdapat 2 cara pendekatan pengukuran yaitu dengan pendekatan actuarial method dan aggregation method. Dalam penelitian ini, metode pengukuran yang digunakan adalah dengan menggunakan AMA-LDA aggregation method.Dari hasil pengukuran yang dilakukan dan setelah dilakukan uji back resting, dapat ditarik kesimpulan bahwa penerapan metode pengukuran AMA-LDA aggregation method cocok diterapkan bagi Bank XYZ untuk mengukur besamya cadangan dana yang hams disediakan akibat potensi kerugian risiko operasional dalam sistem pembayaran nasional di keempat cabang Bank XYZ.

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In order to achieve efficient, fast, secured and reliable payment system, Bank of Indonesia as the regulator has applied Real-Time Grass Settlement (RTGS) payment system. This system has been applied in most countries among Asia-Pasitic region, including Hong Kong, Korea, Australia, China, New Zealand, and Thailand. In Indonesia, this system is known as BI-RTGS.

Besides BI-RTGS system, Bank of Indonesia also provides national (domestic) payment system which is known as ?Sistem Kliring Nasional Bank Indonesia (SKNBI)? or ?National Clearing System of Bank Indonesia". By applying both systems, It is expected that we can have an efficient, quick, secured and reliable payment system.

Peraturan Bank Indonesia (PBI) or Bank of Indonesia Policies point 6/8/PBI/2004 on March 11th 2004 regarding to BI-RTGS System and PBI point 7/18/PBI/2005 on July 22nd 2005 regarding to SKNBI have adopted intemational business practice and BIS core principle standard. Thercby Bank XYZ as participant of BI-RTGS and SKNBI systems is required to obey both PBI above and get consequence, that the officers of Bank XYZ at operational payment system are required to work more accurately and carefully in order to minimize or eliminate any risks which might emerge in fund transfer involving both systems.

Mistaken account or customer name of fund recipient, mistaken nominal value and double transfer are some examples of operational risks on the side of fund sender. In the other hand, miss-judgement against incoming fund transfer order is the operational risk on the side of fund recipient.

Obligation of fund sender to issue order for new fund transfer to directed account or recipient without waiting for fund retum makes it very important to have spare fund allocation for operational risk. The amount of the spare fund has to be calculated using a method known as Value at Risk (VaR).

VaR measurement for operational risk can be performed using simple methods, slightly more complex methods or very complex methods. More complexity of the used method means higher accuracy level of the measurement against actual loss. There are two types of operational risk measurement methods: Standard and Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA). Standard method includes Basic Indicator Approach (BIA), Standardized Approach (SA), and Altemative Standardized Approach (ASA). AMA method includes Intemal Measurement Approach (IMA), Loss Distribution Approach (LDA), Scoreboard Approach, Bootstrapping Approach, Bayesian Method, and Extreme Value Theory (EVT).

AMA is a method which is considered as the one provides better operational risk measurement, that can be used in banking or other companies, compared with other methods, such as BIA, SA and ASA. AMA method uses internal approach in measuring operational risk, making this method not to depend on Basel rule.

In measuring company operational risk, usage of LDA demands intemal operational loss data of each company to be used. This loss data is grouped into occurrence frequency data and loss severity data. In LDA method, there are two methods of measurement, namely actuarial method and aggregation method. In this research, the method to be used is AMA- LDA aggregation method.

From the measurement and back testing result, we can get conclusion that applying AMA-LDA aggregation method is lit for Bank XYZ in measuring the amount of spare fund that must be provided due to potential loss of operational risk in national payment system which is used in four of its branches."

"Penelitian ini untuk menganalisis estimasi Value at Risk untuk mengukur volatilitas dan risiko Pasar Crude Palmoil (CPO) dengan Metode ARCH/GARCH pada Bursa Malaysia Derivative (BMD) Periode 2007-2010 dengan jumlah data observasi sebanyak 4.950 sampel harga CPO untuk jenis harga spot, future 1 bulan hingga future 4 bulan. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode ARCH/GARCH dengan pemilihan metode ARCH/GARCH yang memberikan hasil paling baik. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa metode ARCH/GARCH (1,1) merupakan metode yang memberikan estimasi paling baik untuk semua harga kecuali untuk Future 3 bulan periode 2009-2010 dimana metode yang paling baik adalah ARCH/GARCH (2,1) dan ARCH/GARCH (1,2) untuk Future 4 bulan periode 2009-2010. Selain itu, hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas pasar CPO periode 2009-2010 cenderung menurun dibandingkan periode 2007-2008 dengan penurunan volatilitas terbanyak sebesar 27,66% yaitu pada harga spot. Akibat menurunnya volatilitas tersebut, maka resiko pasar CPO pun mengalami penuruan dengan besaran penurunan terbanyak sebesar 10,66% untuk harga spot. Penurunan ini tetap saja merupakan resiko baik bagi produsen maupun konsumen karenanya perlu dilakukan Hedging untuk memitigasi resiko tersebut. Selain dengan melakukan kontrak dengan formula harga yang mengacu pada harga CPO yang mempunyai nilai VaR terendah, hedging juga dapat dilakukan dengan melakukan perdagangan derivative dalam hal ini futures yang dihedge pada posisi yang berlawanan dengan perdagangan pada pasar spot.

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This study to analyze Value at Risk estimation for volatility and risk measurement of Crude Palmoil (CPO) using ARCH/GARCH method at Bursa Malaysia Derivative (BMD) for period 2007-2010 with total sample of 4.950 spot price and future price from 1 month up to 4 month future price. This study uses ARCH/GARCH method by selecting the best ARCH/GARCH method that resulting the best and closest estimation. The result shows that ARCH/GARCH(1,1) method give the closest result for whole prices excepted for Future 3 months period 2009-2010 where ARCH/GARCH(2,1) provides the best estimation and for Future 4 months period 2009-2010 where ARCH/GARCH(1,2) provides the best estimation. The other result is that the volatility of Crude Palmoil commodity for period of 2009-2010 tend to be decreased than period of 2007-2008 with the most decreases percentage is 27,66% occur to Spot price and therefore the risk also tend to be decreased with the percentage of decreases is 10,66% occur to Spot price. This decreases still appearing risks for both producer and consumer, therefore hedging is important as risk mitigation. The hedging can be done not only through taking the contract with price reference that has low VaR value, but also by trading its derivative such futures that is hedged oppositely with trading in spot price."

"The objective of this research is to examine maximum losses when investor invests on syariah based stock. Markowitz model is used for constructing the optimal portfolio. Value at Risk Model is also used for calculating the expected losses. The research indicates that volatility seems to cluster in a predictable fashion. Therefore the research forecasts variances used exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) model. This research also aims to evaluate whether the EWMA model can predict variances reasonably well. The data used in this research are syariah based stock which had been included in Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) during the year 2005-2006. This research provides that VAR models using an EWMAforecast are good enough for predicting risk. The number of exception of 508 daily datas are only less than 5% or valid at confident level 95%. As benchmark we also use historical method and monte carlo simulation to compare performance of EWMA forecast."

"ABSTRAKProfessional skepticism is an attitude that includes a questioning mind and acritical assessment of audit evidence. Auditors should maintain a certain level of professional skepticism in detecting financial statement fraud since the perpetrators conceal the resulting irregularities. Two experiments were conducted. First, a 3x3 between subjects experiment design was conducted to investigate how fraud risk assessment affects the level of professional skepticism on different levels of trust in auditor-client relationship. Participants were randomly assigned to one of nine conditions. Second, a within subject experiment design was conducted to examine the effect of personality type unprofessional skepticism. A total of 118 junior, seniorand supervisor auditors from public accounting firm participated in the experiment.The results of Analysis ofVariance (AN OVA) suggest that auditors with identificationbased trust in the high fraud risk assessment group were more skeptical than inthe low fraud risk assessment group. While the auditors with calculus based trustshowed no differences in skepticism between the high group and the low fraud riskassessment group. Auditors with ST (Sensing-Thinking) and NT (Intuitive- Thinking)types of personality were more skeptical than other types."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan dua metode value at-risk, delta-normal dan historical simulation diaplikasikan pada sebuah portofolio. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian adalah rerum portofolio yang terdiri dari saham­ saham LQ45 selama interval waktu Februari 2007 sampai dengan Juli 2009 yang berjumlah 596 data. Sebelum diperbandingkan, hasil kedua metode pethitungan VaR akan diuji validitasnya sebagai rnetode pengukuran menggunakan Kupiec test. Jika kedua metode dinyatakan valid, maka kedua metode lersebut akan diperbandingkan untuk menentukan mewde manakah yang lebih cocok sebagai VaR bagi portofolio tersebut Uji normaHtas akan dilakukan karena merupakan asurnsi dalam metode delta-normal. Parameter perhitungau VaR yang digunakan adalah confidence interval 95% dengan horizon waktu 20 hari. Berdasarkan hasil pengujian Kupiec test, kedua metode dalam penelitian ini ditolak sebagai metode pengukuran VaR portofolio tersebut. Dan menurut uji normalitas, beberapa return portofolio tersebut tidak memilik.i dlstibusi normal yang berdampak metode delta-normal tidak dapat langsung diterapkan sehingga dafam perhitungannya harus menggunakan alpha prime. Hasil penelitian ini menyatakan bahwa kedua metode tersebut memiliki tingkat kesalahan yang sama, selain itu berdasarkan Kupiec test dari kedua metode tersebut tidak memiliki validitas yang baik untuk diterapkan.

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This research aimed to comparing two method of Value-at-risk, that is delta­ normal and historical simulation applied to a portfolio. Data used in this research are portfolio return consisting LQ45's stock for time interval February 2007 till July 2009 with total 596 data. Before the comparison, result from both methods will be tested for its validity as a measurement method using Kupiec test. If both methods are valid, then both of methods will be compared to know which one is more suit as VaR for related portfolio. Normality test will be held because it needed for delta-normal method. Measurement parameters used are confidence interval 95% with 20 days time horizon.

Based on the result of Kupiec test, both methods rejected as VaR measurement method for related portfolio. And according to normality test, portfolio returns have a not normal distribution therefore can not be applied immediately to delta normal results are both method are have the same failure rate, but the result from Kupiec test shows that both methods are not suitable to be implemented."

"ContentsForeword -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- Institutional background -- Operational risk -- Financial disasters -- The systemic disaster of 2007-2008 -- Managing financial risk -- VaR and stress testing -- Model risk -- Managing spot risk -- Managing forward risk -- Managing vanilla options risk -- Managing exotic options risk -- Credit risk -- Counterparty credit risk -- Bibliography -- About the companion website -- Index."

"[Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meneliti pengaruh aktivitas lindung nilai terhadap biaya utang perusahaan dan sumber manfaat lindung nilai melalui asimetri informasi, biaya keagenan dan risiko finansial. Penelitian ini mengunakan sampel yang meliputi 38 perusahaan di Indonesia pada periode 2009-2013. Melalui regresi data panel, hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat pengaruh yang signifikan dari lindung nilai terhadap biaya utang perusahaan. Untuk penelitian terkait sumber dampak lindung nilai, terlihat bahwa terdapat pengaruh yang tidak signifikan dari perubahan asimetri informasi dan biaya keagenan terhadap dampak lindung nilai pada biaya utang perusahaan. Di sisi lain, terlihat adanya dampak yang signifikan dari perubahan risiko finansial dan biaya keagenan akibat aktivitas lindung nilai terhadap biaya utang perusahaan. ;This research aims to examine the impact of corporate hedging on the cost of debt and the sources of hedging benefits through information asymmetry, agency costs and financial risk. This research uses sample from 38 companies in Indonesia within period of 2009-2013. By using panel data regression, the result of this study discovers that corporate hedging has a significant impact on the cost of debt. The research also finds that there are no significant impact of information asymmetry and agency cost as the source of the benefit of hedging on cost of debt. On the other side, there is significant impact of financial risk as a source of hedging benefits on the cost of debt. ;This research aims to examine the impact of corporate hedging on the cost of debt and the sources of hedging benefits through information asymmetry, agency costs and financial risk. This research uses sample from 38 companies in Indonesia within period of 2009-2013. By using panel data regression, the result of this study discovers that corporate hedging has a significant impact on the cost of debt. The research also finds that there are no significant impact of information asymmetry and agency cost as the source of the benefit of hedging on cost of debt. On the other side, there is significant impact of financial risk as a source of hedging benefits on the cost of debt. , This research aims to examine the impact of corporate hedging on the cost of debt and the sources of hedging benefits through information asymmetry, agency costs and financial risk. This research uses sample from 38 companies in Indonesia within period of 2009-2013. By using panel data regression, the result of this study discovers that corporate hedging has a significant impact on the cost of debt. The research also finds that there are no significant impact of information asymmetry and agency cost as the source of the benefit of hedging on cost of debt. On the other side, there is significant impact of financial risk as a source of hedging benefits on the cost of debt. ]"

"Salah satu alat ukur risiko yang memiliki peran penting dalam manajemen portofolio adalah Value-at-Risk VaR . VaR didefinisikan sebagai jumlah kerugian portofolio yang mungkin terjadi dengan tingkat kepercayaan yang tinggi, selama periode waktu tertentu. Secara matematis, VaR adalah persentil dari distribusi loss. Secara umum, return pergerakan harga saham dimodelkan dengan gerak Brown. Sementara itu, distribusi loss dari instrumen keuangan lebih berisfat leptokurtic dari distribusi normal dan cenderung memiliki fat tails . Oleh karena itu, karakteristik dari distribusi loss tersebut tidak memenuhi asumsi distribusi normal. Dengan demikian, proses Variance Gamma VG adalah proses stokastik alternatif untuk mendeskripsikan model dari distribusi return harga saham. Proses VG didefinisikan sebagai gerak Brown dengan perubahan waktu acak mengikuti proses Gamma. Pada penerapannya dalam pasar modal, perhitungan VaR akan dilakukan pada Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Indonesia IHSG .

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One of the measures of risk which has an important role in managing portfolio is Value at Risk VaR . VaR is defined as the amount of possible portfolio losses with a high level of certainty, over a specific time frame. From statistical point of view, VaR is the percentile of the loss distribution. In general, return of the stock prices is modeled with Brownian motion. Meanwhile, return distributions of financial instruments are more leptokurtic than normal distribution and tend to have the fat tails . Therefore, these characteristics of return distributions are countering the normality assumption. Accordingly, a Variance Gamma VG process is an alternative stochastic process to describe the model for the return distribution of stock prices. This process is defined as Brownian motion with random time change following gamma process. On purpose of risk management application, the calculation of VaR will be carried out by using Indonesia Composite Index IDX . "