Ditemukan 1 dokumen yang sesuai dengan query
Marcelinus David Wahono
Abstrak :
Krisis ekonomi yang terjadi di masa lalu menimbulkan pertanyaan tentang validitas
Efficient Market Hypothesis dan mendorong berkembangnya model-model yang
dapat memprediksi indeks harga saham. Salah satunya yaitu prediksi
memanfaatkan komponen ekonomi yang diketahui mempengaruhi IHSG dan
memprosesnya dengan teknik machine learning. Support Vector Machine dikenal
memiliki kemampuan untuk menangani data berdimensi tinggi dan memiliki
keunggulan dibandingkan algoritma yang lain. Performa SVM akan dibandingkan
dengan Artificial Neural Network (ANN) dan algoritma klasik Multiple Linear
Regression (MLR). Studi ini diawali mengidentifikasi pengaruh komponen
ekonomi terhadap IHSG mendatang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa SVM
memiliki kinerja paling baik dalam memprediksi harga indeks saham keesokan
harinya (t + 1), namun kinerja ANN paling baik untuk memprediksi t + 5, t + 10,
dst.
......The economic crisis that occurred in the past raised questions about the validity of
the Efficient Market Hypothesis and encouraged the development of models that
can predict the stock price. One of them is prediction utilizing economic
components known to affect IDX composite index and processed by machine
learning techniques. Support Vector Machines are known to have the ability to
handle high-dimensional data and have advantages over other algorithms. SVM
performance will be compared to Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and the classic
Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) algorithm. This study begins with identifying
the influence of economic component on the future IDX composite index. The
results showed that SVM had the best performance in predicting the next day stock
index prices (t+1), but ANN's performance was better than others for predicting
t+5, t+10, and so on.
Depok: Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Indonesia, 2021
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