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Abstrak :
ABSTRAK
Berbagai dampak perubahan iklim, seperti perubahan cuaca ekstrim dan meningkatnya permukaan air laut, akan dirasakan secara luas terutama oleh masyarakat yang tinggal di daerah pesisir, seperti Kepulauan Seribu yang merupakan gugusan pulau-pulau. Penelitian ini bertujuan menyelidiki pengaruh faktor - faktor environmental migrants, yang terdiri dari faktor lingkungan / iklim, faktor politik, faktor demografi, ekonomi dan sosial, yang dapat memicu terjadinya human migration. Metode penelitian yang dipergunakan dalam tesis ini adalah metode campuran kuantitatif dan kualitatif. Tehnik pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan studi pustaka dan lapangan. Untuk studi lapangan dilakukan wawancara dan penyebaran kuesioner terhadap penduduk Pulau Panggang, Kepulauan Seribu. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa mayoritas penduduk Pulau Panggang memilih untuk tidak bermigrasi ke luar pulau. Faktor sosial yang terdiri dari pendidikan dan ikatan keluarga mempunyai pengaruh terhadap keputusan migrasi. Faktor pendidikan yang merupakan bagian dari faktor sosial environmental migrants terbukti signifikan dapat menjadi kontribusi bagi masyarakat untuk tidak pindah. Analisa skenario early warning intelligence sebagai strategi antisipatif menunjukkan pemerintah daerah setempat perlu membentuk emergency plan / rencana darurat agar masyarakat bisa meningkatkan taraf hidup dan bertahan di tengah situasi yang tidak normal. Masyarakat Pulau Panggang perlu diberi informasi dan pensosialisasian agar sadar lingkungan beserta dampak-dampaknya.

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ABSTRACT
The effects of climate change such as extreme weather and sea level rise will be affecting populations mainly in coastal areas such as Kepulauan Seribu which are formed as islands. The purpose of this research is to study effects of environmental migrants that comprises of environmental / climatic, political, demographic, economic, and social factors that can trigger human migration. The research method is mixed method of quantitative and qualitative. Data collection is done through both literary studies and fieldwork. Fieldwork comprises of interviews and questionnaire in the population of Panggang Island, Kepulauan Seribu. The result shows that the majority of the Panggang Island population does not want to migrate out of their island. Results of the research shows that social factors made up of education and family ties does have an impact on migratory decisions of a resident. Education, a part of the social dimension of environmental migrants proves to be a significant factor for residence to decide not to migrate from Kepulauan Seribu. Early warning intelligence scenario analysis as an anticipatory strategy shows that the local government needs to form an emergency plan so that the population can increase their standards of living and continue their lives even in an abnormal situation. Panggang Island residents needs to be socialized and supplied sufficient information so they are more aware regarding their environment and the factors affecting it

Abstrak :
Sumber karbon utama di ekosistem hutan terdiri dari biomassa pohon, tumbuhan bawah, serasah, kayu mati dan bahan organik tanah. Karbon hutan yang tersimpan pada biomassa atas permukaan (BAP) atau aboveground biomass (AGB) merupakan sumber terbesar dan paling terkena dampak deforestasi dan degradasi hutan. Deforestasi dan degradasi hutan merupakan penyumbang kedua terbesar emisi karbon ke atmosfer yang menyebabkan perubahan iklim, setelah penggunaan bahan bakar fosil oleh industri dan transportasi. Penelitian dilakukan dengan tujuan untuk mengkaji potensi BAP dan stok karbon berdasarkan tipe-tipe hutan, serta mengetahui pengaruh deforestasi terhadap perubahan stok karbon hutan di DAS Batang Natal dan sekitarnya, Mandailing Natal, Sumatera Utara. Pengukuran potensi biomassa pohon dilakukan dalam plot ukur berbentuk persegi panjang dengan ukuran 20 m x 125 m sebanyak 15 plot ukur. Sebanyak 8 plot dibuat di hutan lahan kering, 4 plot di hutan mangrove dan 3 plot di hutan rawa. Total area hutan yang disurvei mencapai 3,75 ha. Pohon dengan Diameter at Breast Height (DBH) ≥ 2 cm diidentifikasi dan diukur diameternya. Penghitungan biomassa dilakukan melalui persamaan alometrik yang sudah ada untuk hutan tropis. Analisis deforestasi dilakukan melalui pendekatan penginderaan jauh. Data citra satelit Landsat tahun 2000 dan 2011 dianalisis dengan metode klasifikasi terbimbing (supervised classification) Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC). Analisis perubahan biomassa dan stok karbon dilakukan melalui Stock-Difference Method. Perubahan biomassa dan stok karbon total untuk setiap tipe hutan dilakukan melalui perkalian Mg ha-1 dengan luas hutan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan rerata biomassa pohon hutan lahan kering 364,99 ± 39,32 Mg ha-1, hutan rawa memiliki rerata biomassa pohon 643,95 ± 177,71 Mg ha-1, dan rerata biomassa pohon hutan mangrove 387,37 ± 31,10 Mg ha-1. Pada tahun 2000, DAS Batang Natal dan sekitarnya memiliki total luas tutupan hutan mencapai 93.396, dan tahun 2011 menurun dengan luas 67.961 ha. Dengan demikian, selama periode 2000-2011, luas tutupan hutan yang hilang mencapai 25.435 ha dengan rerata deforestasi 6,26% tahun-1 atau setara dengan 2.312 ha tahun-1. Rerata deforestasi hutan lahan kering mencapai 1,78% tahun-1 dengan emisi karbon sekitar 756.710 Mg CO2e tahun-1. Hutan rawa memiliki rerata deforestasi 4,48% tahun-1 dengan emisi 747.115 Mg CO2e tahun-1. ...... The main source of biomass and carbon in the forest ecosystem are coming from trees, litter, dead wood and soil organic matter. Forest carbon stored in the above ground biomass (AGB) is the largest source; however it is also the most affected by deforestation and forest degradation. Deforestation and forest degradation is the second largest contributor of carbon emissions into the atmosphere which caused the climate change issue, after the use of fossil fuels by industry and transportation. This research was conducted with the aim to assess the potential of AGB and carbon stocks based on forest tipology, as well as to determine the impact of deforestation on change of forest carbon stock in Batang Natal watershed and the surrounding area, Mandailing Natal, North Sumatra. Biomass of trees measurement performed through 15 rectangular sample plots with 20 m x 125 m in size. A total of 8 plots were established in the dryland forest, 4 plots in the mangrove forest and 3 plots in the swamp forest. The total sampled area was around 3.75 ha. All trees with Diameter at Breast Height (DBH) ≥ 2 cm were recorded and measured. In the absence of destructive sampling measurements, biomass calculated using the existing allometric equations for the tropical forest. Analysis of the deforestation was carried out using remote sensing approach. Two-dates image pair for 2000 and 2011 were classified using a supervised maximum likelihood classifier (MLC). Analysis of biomass and carbon stock changes was carried out using stock-difference method. The difference in carbon stocks is multiplied by the area of each forest type to obtain the total carbon emissions. The results showed that average of tree biomass for dryland forest is 364.99 ± 39.32 Mg ha-1, the swamp forest has an average of around 643.95 ± 177.71 Mg ha-1, and for mangrove forests is 387.37 ± 31.10 Mg ha-1. In 2000, the total forest cover of study area reached to 93396 ha, while in 2011 the forest cover decreased to 67961 ha. Thus, during the period 2000-2011, forest cover with total 25435 ha have been converted with rate of 6.26% year-1 or equivalent to 2312 ha year-1. The deforestation rate in the dryland forest reached 1.78% year-1 with carbon emissions estimated at 756710 Mg CO2e year-1. The swamp forest deforestation rate was approximately at 4.48% year-1, equivalent to 747115 Mg CO2e year-1 of carbon emissions.

Abstrak :
Pertanian, khususnya pertanian padi sangat bergantung pada ketersediaan air. Terjadinya perubahan iklim mempengaruhi pola musim dan ketersediaan air, sehingga mengakibatkan perubahan lingkungan bagi petani padi. Perubahan lingkungan yang terjadi menyebabkan perubahan perilaku, yaitu adaptasi. Tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk mengetahui perbedaan adaptasi yang dilakukan oleh petani padi pada perbedaan wilayah ketinggian. Adaptasi yang dilakukan petani padi adalah untuk menyesuaikan diri terhadap dampak-dampak perubahan iklim pada tanaman padi. Bentuk adaptasi dipengaruhi oleh keadaan lingkungan. Perbedaan keadaan lingkungan dalam penelitian ini adalah pebedaan wilayah ketinggian, dimana mempengaruhi pula perbedaan budaya bertani yang pada akhirnya mempengaruhi perbedaan pola adaptasi. Bentuk adaptasi yang dilakukan petani berupa teknologi, sumber pendapatan, dan perubahan pola tanam, dimana wilayah ketinggian 25-500m memiliki kapasitas adaptif yang paling tinggi dan wilayah ketinggian diatas 500m memiliki kapasitas adaptif paling rendah.

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Agriculture, especially rice farming it's depends on water availability. Climate change affects weather patterns and water availability, resulting in changes in the environment for rice farmers. Environmental changes that occur cause behavioral changes, namely adaptation. The purpose of this research is to know the difference adaptations made by rice farmers in the difference in height. Adaptations made rice farmers is to adapt to the impacts of climate change on rice. Form of adaptation is influenced by environmental conditions. The difference in environmental conditions in the study area is the average difference between the height, which influence the differences in farming culture, which in turn affects the different patterns of adaptation. Forms of adaptation by farmers in the form of technology, sources of revenue, and changes in cropping patterns, which the height of 25-500m region has the highest adaptive capacity and areas above 500m altitude the lowest adaptive capacity.

Abstrak :
Curah hujan merupakan unsur iklim yang sangat bervariasi berdasarkan waktu dan tempat. Kecenderungan perubahan curah hujan dalam jangka waktu tertentu dapat mengindikasikan fenomena peubahan iklim yang sedang terjadi. Melalui perhitungan statistik dan analisis spasial dan temporal, penelitian ini mengungkapkan bahwa ada suatu kecenderungan berkurangnya curah hujan di Daerah Aliran Way Sekampung selama periode 1980 – 2009. Melalui perhitungan statistik dengan menggunakan Uji Mann-Kendall dan dibantu oleh analisis spasial, telah ditemukan bahwa tren perubahan curah hujan yang terjadi di DA Way Sekampung didominasi oleh tren berkurangnya curah hujan. Uji tren terhadap curah hujan tahunan dan musiman yang dilakukan mengungkapkan bahwa bagian tengah dari DA Way Sekampung yang mencakup wilayah administrasi Kabupaten Pringsewu, Pesawaran, sebagian barat Lampung Selatan, dan sebagian utara Kota Bandar Lampung, adalah daerah dengan tren berkurangnya curah hujan yang sangat signifikan pada periode 1980-2009. ......Rainfall is highly variable climatic elements based on time and place. The changing trend of rainfall in a certain period can indicate the climate change phenomena that happening. Through the statistical calculation and analysis of spatio - temporal, this study reveals that there is a decreasing trend in rainfall in the watershed Way Sekampung during the period 1980 – 2009. Through statistical calculations using the Mann - Kendall and assisted by the spatial analysis, it was found that the trend of the rainfall changes in Way Sekampung catchment area dominated by reduced rainfall trends. Trend test for seasonal and annual precipitation were carried out revealed that the central region of the Way Sekampung catchment area which covers area of district administration Pringsewu, Pesawaran, most of western South Lampung, and the most northern city of Bandar Lampung, are areas with very significant decreasing rainfall trend in the period 1980-2009.

Abstrak :
Buku ini membahas tentang perubahan iklim yang terjadi dengan cepat dan segala kemungkinan musibah yang disebabkan terjadinya perubahan ini. Menceritakan mengenai bagaimana perubahan iklim akan mengubah segala segi kehidupan manusia. Di dalamnya mengulas rentetan, unsur-unsur kekacauan, kaleidoskop iklim, dan kaidah antropik. Manusia telah berkontribusi terhadap perubahan yang terjadi pada planet ini.

Abstrak :
The book presents results of CLUVA (CLimate Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa), a large European Commission funded research project (2010-2013). The project aimed to develop a better understanding of the risks and impacts of climate change related hazards to African cities, assess their vulnerability to these risks, and identify innovative strategies for planning and governance to increase their resilience. For the first time, a systematic and groundbreaking study of this kind was applied in an inter- and trans-disciplinary approach. CLUVA was unique in that it combined: a top-down perspective of climate change modeling with a bottom-up perspective of vulnerability assessment; quantitative approaches from engineering sciences and qualitative approaches of the social sciences; a novel multi-risk modeling methodology; strategic approaches to urban and green infrastructure planning with neighborhood perspectives of adaptation. The book broadly follows the approach taken in the CLUVA project. First, the combined pressures of urbanisation and climate change on the African continent and the potential impacts these will have on cities are illustrated. Then, the vulnerability of three main elements of the urban system is explored: built structures and infrastructures, urban ecosystems and people. Rich material from five case studies is provided for in-depth discussion of the factors that make these elements vulnerable to climate change, while alternatives for increasing their adaptive capacity are outlined. Another section is dedicated to the role of urban planning and governance for climate change adaptation, which is approached from diverse perspectives. Finally, the different dimensions of the CLUVA project are synthesised to develop an outlook on future coping strategies for urbanisation and climate change in African cities. Leading researchers in the fields of vulnerability and urban planning have been invited to contribute complementary chapters. Thus, the book should be of wide interest to scholars in the field of urban vulnerability and climate change.

Abstrak :
Analysing and synthesising vast data sets from a multitude of disciplines including climate science, economics, hydrology and agricultural research, this volume seeks new methods of combining climate change mitigation, adaptation, development, and poverty reduction in ways that are effective, efficient and equitable. A guiding principle of the project is that new alliances of state and non-state sector partners are urgently required to establish cooperative responses to the threats posed by climate change. This volume offers a vital policy framework for linking our response to this change with progressive principles of global justice and sustainable development.