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ABSTRAK
Pembahasan mengenai apakah perubahan earning memiliki hubungan kausalitas terhadap tingkat imbal hasil saham merupakan hal yang masih diwarnai perdebatan. Dengan melihat adanya dugaan keterlibatan intrinsic bubble yang menurut Chen, Cheng, dan K.F Cheng (2009) mampu melatarbelakangi lahirnya perdebatan itu, penelitian ini dilakukan guna membuktikan dugaan tersebut di Indonesia. Dengan menggunakan beberapa data komposit Indonesia seperti IHSG, composite EPS (earning per share) dan composite DPS (dividend per share), juga data lainnya selama kurun waktu 2006-2012, penulis terlebih dahulu menguji keberadaan hubungan kausalitas antara perubahan earning dengan tingkat imbal hasil saham menggunakan VECM serta uji intrinsic bubble di Indonesia melalui OLS. Pada akhirnya, penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa intrinsic bubble terbukti tidak mempengaruhi hubungan kausalitas antara perubahan earning terhadap tingkat imbal hasil saham di Indonesia.

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ABSTRACT
Discussions about whether changes in earning have a causality relation with stock returns are still in controversy. Based on the hypothesis by Chen, Cheng, and K.F Cheng (2009) that intrinsic bubble could be the reason of those controversial discussion, this study was made in order to prove this hypothesis in Indonesia. Using several Indonesian composite data such as IHSG, composite EPS (earning per share) and composite DPS (dividend per share), and also other Indonesian data during 2006-2012 period, researcher try to do some tests first. They are test to see the existance of the causality relation using VECM and also test to see the existance of intrinsic bubble using OLS. At the end, this study results a conclusion that intrinsic bubble is not affecting the causality relation between changes in earning and stock return in Indonesia.

Abstrak :
Causality berperan penting dalam menjelaskan hubungan causal pada kehidupan seharihari. Causality terbagi menjadi dua gagasan, yakni general causality untuk hubungan sebab-akibat dan actual causality untuk accountability suatu kejadian. Terdapat beberapa upaya untuk memodelkan actual causality secara formal, salah satunya adalah pemodelan menggunakan causal calculus yang diperkenalkan oleh Bochman, walaupun tidak dijelaskan bagiamana pemodelan ini diimplementasikan secara konkret. Dalam tugas akhir ini, dirancang sebuah pemodelan actual causality dalam pemrograman logika menggunakan suatu pengembangan dari abduction, yaitu contextual abduction. Abduction adalah sebuah penalaran yang mana seseorang mengambil penjelasan terbaik dari semua kemungkinan penjelasan sehingga masuk akal dalam menjelaskan suatu observasi. Contextual abduction adalah pengembangan dari abduction yang mana dapat menerima konteks masukan untuk mencari penjelasan yang sesuai dengan konteks. Pemodelan actual causality dengan contextual abduction ini diimplementasikan menggunakan TABDUAL oleh Saptawijaya dan Pereira menjadi suatu prototipe, yang dapat melakukan pencarian actual cause. Prototipe ini diuji terhadap berbagai contoh yang menggambarkan kasus permasalahan actual causality yang mengkonfirmasi hasil pemodelan dengan causal calculus oleh Bochman. ......Causality has a big role in explaining causal relationships in a daily life. Causality is split into two notions, general causality, which describes relationships between cause and effect, and actual causality, which describes accountability of a certain event. There are a few attempts to formally represent actual causality, one of which uses causal calculus, introduced by Bochman, although it is not explained how to concretely implement this representation. In this final project, a formal representation of actual causality is formulated in logic programming using an extension of abduction, viz., contextual abduction. Abduction is a type of reasoning in which one picks the best explanation from all possible explanations such that it explains a given observation. Contextual abduction is an extension of abduction that takes into account an input context and find an explanation that is suitable to the context. This representation of actual causality with contextual abduction is implemented with TABDUAL of Saptawijaya and Pereira into a prototype that is able to search for actual causes. This prototype is tested against various examples that illustrate actual causality problems, confirming Bochman’s formal representation through causal calculus.

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Summary: Throughout history, the world and its operation have been viewed in terms of cause and effect. The principles of causation have been applied, fruitfully, across the sciences, law, and medicine, and in everyday life, despite the lack of any agreed-upon framework for understanding what causation ultimately amounts

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Written by one of the preeminent researchers in the field, this book provides a comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, economics, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Judea Pearl presents and unifies the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual, and structural approaches to causation and devises simple mathematical tools for studying the relationships between causal connections and statistical associations. Cited in more than 2,100 scientific publications, it continues to liberate scientists from the traditional molds of statistical thinking. In this revised edition, Judea Pearl elucidates thorny issues, answers readers' questions, and offers a panoramic view of recent advances in this field of research. Causality will be of interest to students and professionals in a wide variety of fields. Dr Judea Pearl has received the 2011 Rumelhart Prize for his leading research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and systems from The Cognitive Science Society.

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Friedrich Waismann (1896 1959) was one of the most gifted students and collaborators of Moritz Schlick. Accepted as a discussion partner by Wittgenstein from 1927 on, he functioned as spokesman for the latter 's ideas in the Schlick Circle, until Wittgenstein 's contact with this most faithful interpreter was broken off in 1935 and not renewed when exile took Waismann to Cambridge. Nonetheless, at Oxford, where he went in 1939, and eventually became Reader in Philosophy of Mathematics (changing later to Philosophy of Science), Waismann made important and independent contributions to analytic p. Contents Table of Contents; Editorial; Waismann: the Wandering Scholar; Tributes to and Impressions of Friedrich Waismann; Waismann's Big Book; The Exile and His Family; A Waismann Memoir; Oxford Memories of Friedrich Waismann; Waismann's Lectures on Causality: An Introduction; Bibliography; The Decline and Fall of Causality; Causality; (1) Hume's Analysis of Causal Connection.; (2) The Problem of Induction.; (3) What is the Principle of Induction?; (4) J. S. Mill's Account; (5) The Scientific Scheme of Causality; (6) Comments on a New Conception.; (7) The Principle of Causality. (8) Difficulties of Determinism(9) Causality as Understood Connection; (10) Insight; (11) Motive; (12) Criticism of Russell's View; The Logical Force of Expressions; 1. Ramsey; 2. Two Sorts of Inference; 3. V-Inferences; 4. Body of Meanings; 5. 'All men are mortal'; A Philosopher Looks at Kafka; Waismann Versus Ewing on Causality; 1. Introduction; 2. Intrinsic Connectedness; 3. Explanation; 4. Production; 5. Necessity; 6. Causal powers; 7. Conclusion; References; Waismann as Spokesman for Wittgenstein; Waismann's Testimony of Wittgenstein's Fresh Starts in 1931-35. Otto Neurath's 'Encyclopedia of the World War': A ContextualisationOtto Neurath and the Women's International League for Peace and Freedom (WILPF); Struggles For Social Transformation-links Between Yella Hertzka And Otto Neurath; Otto Neurath On War And Peace; Otto Neurath-Utopias, Encyclopedias, Museum Work; Encyclopedia of the World War; Enzyklopädie des Weltkrieges.; One Hundred Years of Philosophy of Science: The View from Munich; Bibliography; John T. Blackmore: Two Recent Trilogies on Ernst Mach; References; Logical Syntax and the Application of Mathematics; Reviews; Obituary. Activities of the Institute Vienna CircleActivities 2010; Activities 2011; Index of Names.

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ABSTRAK
Skripsi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perbedaan likuiditas pada Obligasi Negara berdasarkan kelompok maturitasnya, jangka pendek, jangka menengah, dan jangka panjang pada obligasi benchmark dan nonbenchmark tahun 2008-2013 serta hubungan pada kelompok tersebut. Penelitian ini menggunakan obligasi negara benchmark dan nonbenchmark dengan maturitas 5 sampai dengan 30 tahun yang diperdagangkan di pasar sekunder. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah uji beda One Way ANOVA dan Granger Causality. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat perbedaan likuiditas baik dalam jangka pendek, jangka menengah, dan jangka panjang pada obligasi negara benchmark dan nonbenchmark serta terdapat hubungan likuiditas pada kelompok tersebut.

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ABSTRACT
This paper aims to analyze the differences in liquidity in treasury bonds by the group of maturity, namely short-term, medium-term and long-term benchmark and nonbenchmark bonds years 2008-2013 as well as the relationships in the group. This study uses a benchmark and nonbenchmark treasury bonds with a maturity of 5 to 30 years traded on the secondary market. The analytical method used is mean difference One Way ANOVA and Granger Causality test. The results showed that there are differences in liquidity both in the short term, medium term and long term benchmark and nonbenchmark bonds and there is a relationship nonbenchmark liquidity in the group