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Abstrak :
This paper constructed a small macro econometric model of Indonesia using annual timeseries data from 1986 to 2011. The model consists of 6 behavior, 1 identity equations, 7 endogenous and 5 exogenous variables. The model is generated by using simultaneousequation simulation and the Two Stage Least Square (TSLS) technique.Then the dynamic simulation of the whole model is performed. The performance of the model on the historical data is evaluated based on Root Mean Square Percentage Error (RMSPE).Fiscal and monetary policies are simulated in order to develop the multiplier. Finally, forecasting is generated to identify the future economic performance of Indonesia.

Abstrak :
Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis Kuznets proses mengenai ekspansi pendidikan dan juga menganalisa kurva pendidikan Kuznets dengan menggunakan panel data dari tahun 1996 sampai dengan 2011 dan menerapkan metode regresi panel. Dari proses Kuznets, dapat disimpulkan bahwa pendidikan di Indonesia mengikuti proses Kuznets. Dari hasil panel regresi, koefisien dari Educ memiliki tanda yang diharapkan dan signifikan pada tingkat 1% di kedua model. Koefisien dari Educ2 positif dan signifikan di 1%. Dengan kata lain, kesenjangan pendidikan tampaknya telah menurun seiring dengan semakin luasnya kesempatan pendidikan di Indonesia. Untuk Kuznets ekspenditur, ditemukan bahwa hubungan antara kesenjangan pengeluaran dan pendidikan tidak mengikuti pola kurva U terbalik. Hal ini ditandai dengan nilai dari koefisien Educ dan duc2 masing-masing negatif dan positif. ......This research attempt to examine the Kuznets process for education expansion and try to observe the educational Kuznets curve by using panel regression data from 1996 to 2011 and implement panel regression method. From the construction of Kuznets process for educational expansion, we may conclude that Kuznets process for education is experienced in Indonesia with overall inequality reaches the maximum when the share of higher education group is 67.5 per cent. From the panel regression, the coefficient of Educ has an expected sign and is significant at the 1% significance level in both models. In other words, educational inequality appears to have been declining with educational expansion in Indonesia. The coefficient of Educ² is positive and significant at the 1% significance level, indicating that there is a level of education where educational inequality is the minimum. For expenditure Kuznets, we found that the relationship between expenditure inequality and education does not follow the inverse-U shape. It is signed by negative and positive coefficients of Educ and Educ respectively.