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Abstrak :
[ABSTRAK
Energi migas masih menjadi andalan utama perekonomian Indonesia, baik sebagai penghasil devisa maupun pemasok kebutuhan energi dalam negeri. Dengan penurunan Produksi MIGAS 6% per tahun dan diiringi dengan kenaikan pertumbuhan konsumsi energi rata-rata mencapai 7% dalam 10 tahun terakhir, mengakibatkan Indonesia dalam kondisi Krisis MIGAS dalam 20 Tahun kedepan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisa ancaman operasional survai dan pemboran dalam rangka peningkatan produksi MIGAS karena adanya faktor otonomi daerah. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian kualitatif study kasus dengan menggunakan analisa eksternal PEST dan Force Field Analisis sedangkan Analisis Anticipatory digunakan sebagai analisa Internal. Dari analisa Eksternal dan Internal tersebut dijadikan sebagai penggerak untuk tinjauan masa depan skenario 2035. Perizinan yang merupakan salah satu yang menghambat dalam peningkatan produksi MIGAS nasional, sehingga diperlukan penyederhanaan perizinan dan peningkatan teknologi untuk dapat meningkatkan produksi MIGAS nasional di Tahun 2035.

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ABSTRACT
Hydrocarbon energy is the major player of Indonesia economy, in term of foreign exchange earner and also for domestic supply of energy demand. With the reduction of hydrocarbon production as 6% per year and follow with the growth of energy consumption by 7% in last 10 year, Indonesia is facing a hydrocarbon energy crisis for the next 20 years. The aim of this study is to analyze the threat in survey and drilling operation in order to increase the hydrocarbon production due to regional autonomy factor existences. This study is qualitative case study that use external analysis of PEST and Force Field, while the Anticipatory analysis use as internal one. This external and internal analysis treat as a driving force for foresight the 2035 scenario. The licensing is one of the obstacle in increasing the national hydrocarbon production, therefore the simplification in licensing and enhancement in technology are necessary in order to increase the national hydrocarbon production for year 2035, Hydrocarbon energy is the major player of Indonesia economy, in term of foreign exchange earner and also for domestic supply of energy demand. With the reduction of hydrocarbon production as 6% per year and follow with the growth of energy consumption by 7% in last 10 year, Indonesia is facing a hydrocarbon energy crisis for the next 20 years. The aim of this study is to analyze the threat in survey and drilling operation in order to increase the hydrocarbon production due to regional autonomy factor existences. This study is qualitative case study that use external analysis of PEST and Force Field, while the Anticipatory analysis use as internal one. This external and internal analysis treat as a driving force for foresight the 2035 scenario. The licensing is one of the obstacle in increasing the national hydrocarbon production, therefore the simplification in licensing and enhancement in technology are necessary in order to increase the national hydrocarbon production for year 2035]