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Abstrak :
ABSTRAK
Pertumbuhan penumpang angkutan udara mengalami peningkatan sejalan dengan pertumbuhan penduduk dan perekonomian di suatu negara. Revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) di seluruh dunia dalam kurun waktu 10 Tahun tumbuh rata-rata 4,7 % per tahun, dan untuk wilayah Asia Tenggara pertumbuhan RPK dalam periode yang sama adalah sebesar 6,6 % per tahun. Hal itu menunjukkan bahwa tingkat pertumbuhan lalu lintas udara di Asia Tenggara melebihi tingkat pertumbuhan dunia. Pertumbuhan angkutan udara di Indonesia termasuk dalam 10 besar dunia dan tertinggi di kawasan Asia Pasifik dengan jumlah penumpang angkutan udara yang mencapai 72,4 juta. Pertumbuhan penumpang angkutan udara yang sangat pesat tersebut tentu harus diimbangi dengan penyediaan infrastruktur transportasi udara. Sementara saat ini alokasi anggaran pemerintah di bidang infrastruktur transportasi sangat terbatas. Untuk sektor infrastruktur bandar udara, pemerintah hanya mengalokasikan anggaran sebesar 19,5 triliun/5 tahun sedangkan anggaran yang diperlukan untuk pengembangan 233 bandar udara adalah sebesar Rp.54 trilliun/5 tahun. Dengan demikian terjadi gap pembiayaan sebesar Rp.34,5 trilliun atau 63 % dari kebutuhan anggaran belum dapat terpenuhi. Dengan keterbatasan dana tersebut maka perlu mengoptimalkan fasilitas bandar udara yang ada tanpa mengabaikan keselamatan penerbangan. Salah satu untuk upaya mendukung optimasi fasilitas bandar udara dapat dikembangkan model prediksi penumpang angkutan udara dengan menggunakan pendekatan sistem dinamis. Keunggulan dari pengembangan model optimasi fasilitas bandara berdasarkan potensi prediksi penumpang angkutan udara dengan pendekatan sistem dinamis adalah variabel yang digunakan untuk mengukur potensi demand ditentukan melalui proses systems thinking yaitu penentuan variabel dengan mental model yang mempertimbangkan hubungan kausalitas antar variabel secara dinamis, sistematis, logis dan realistis dari sebuah sistem yang bersifat komplek. Model prediksi penumpang angkutan udara yang komprehensif dapat membantu dalam menganalisa pengambilan sebuah keputusan dalam mengoptimalkan fasilitas bandar udara

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ABSTRACT
The growth of air passengers has increased in line with the population and economic growth ofthe country. Revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) around in the world during ten years grew on average of 4.7 % per year, and in the Southeast Asian region. RPK growth in the same period was 6.6% per year. It shows that the rate of traffic growth in Southeast Asia exceeds the growth rate of the world. The growth of air transport in Indonesia, including in top ten in the world and the highest in the Asia Pacific region with a number of air passengers reached 72.4 million. The growth of passenger air transport is very rapid course must be balanced with the provision of air transport infrastructure, while the government budget in transport infrastructure sectorhas a constraint. Budgeting for the airport infrastructure sector the government only allocates 19.5 trillion / 5 years while the necessary budget for the development of 233 airports amounted to Rp.54 trillion / 5 years hence a financing gap amounting to Rp.34 , 5 trillion or 63 % of the budget requirements. Based on the limitation of airport budgeting, needed optimization of airport facilities. The one of policy istruments is define a model air passenger demand forecasting using a dynamic systems approach to support optimization of airport facilities. The advantage of demand forecasting model using dynamic systems approach is the variables to measure the potential demand is determined through a process of systems thinking , namely the determination of the variable with the mental model that considers the causality relationship inter variables dynamically , systematic , logical and realistic. The robust model of demand forecasting could support to analyze a decision making on optimization of airport facilities.

Abstrak :
Global revenue by passenger kilometers over the last ten years has grown at an average of 4.7 percent per year. The high growth of air transport must be offset by equivalent airport investment: perhaps even a doubling of the percentage growth of numbers of passengers. The purpose of this paper is to build a development model for investment in hub-and-spoke airport networks. The methodology developed in this paper uses systems dynamics theory. The benefit of using this approach is that the variables in the model are determined through a systems thinking process; the determination of variables through such a thinking process considers causality between variables dynamically, logically, and realistically within a complex aviation industry system. The simulation model shows that using a system dynamics approach can be used to simulate airport infrastructure investment development in a hub-and-spoke network. One of the subsystems is congestion; the result of simulation of this subsystem yields the behavioral characteristics, which show that a surge in demand (which is then offset by the provision of capacity or capacity enlargement) will eventually become stable, indicated by a lack of lines on the runway side. This means that decreases in congestion will increase passenger demand, and will also enhance potential investment in airport infrastructure.