Hasil Pencarian  ::  Simpan CSV :: Kembali

"Accurate predictions are essential in many areas such as corporate decision making, weather forecasting and technology forecasting. Prediction markets help to aggregate information and gain a better understanding of the future by leveraging the wisdom of the crowds. Trading prices in prediction markets thus reflect the traders’ aggregated expectations on the outcome of uncertain future events and can be used to predict the likelihood of these events. This book demonstrates that markets are accurate predictors. Results from several empirical studies reported in this work show the importance of designing such markets properly in order to derive valuable predictions. Therefore, the findings are valuable for designing future prediction markets.;"

"framework of international comparison, he analyzes the problems facing Chinas economy in terms of international trade, international finance, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves, international investment, etc., and looks forward to the future development of Chinas economy. The development of professional readers and policy makers has great reference significance."

"Twenty-one years ago ,the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies inaugrated a topical, forward-lookingannual publication intended to benefit businesspeople, diplomats, security specialists, professionals, journalists ,and others with a stake in understanding regional developments.That publication has long since earned the admiration and trust of readers both in the region and outside Southeast Asia. They have come to rely on its well-informedand timely analysis of the near-termdevelopments and trends likely to have the greatest impact on their work. The latest edition of Regional Outlook: Southeast Asia builds on this strong tradition. Its contents underscore ISEAS ’commitment to offering stakeholders in regional affairs access to the ..."

"Alan Greenspan, the then Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, was reported in 1997 to have studied men’s underwear sales, to provide an early warning for recession in the US economy. Since then many economics editors have written about men’s underwear sales and a Men’s Underwear Index, to support their views on the future direction of the economy; and the OECD use a basket of indicators to forecast the world economy (OECD, 2008). This paper explores the theory and its empirical robustness for 57 countries. There is some limited statistical evidence that sales of men’s underwear might be an indicator of the US economy, or more precisely of looming recession. But the relationship is far from clear; therefore as an indicator it should be approached with extreme caution. Certainly more detailed and robust investigation is required. Looking across a further 56 counties, men’s underwear sales appear to be unrelated to the economy as a whole, seeming to behave as a basic commodity. However, for Armenia, Ecuador and Kuwait, there may be some validity in understanding the relationship further."

"Meskipun literatur yang memelajari kemampuan yield curve dalam memprediksi aktivitas perekonomian telah cukup banyak, sebagian besar literatur tersebut difokuskan pada data dari negara maju. Dengan demikian, bukti hubungan tersebut di negara-negara berkembang masih cukup langka. Studi ini menyelidiki apakah kurva yield curve memiliki kemampuan untuk memprediksi aktivitas ekonomi masa depan di negara-negara ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina, Singapura, dan Thailand) melalui penggunaan time-series OLS model. Studi ini menggunakan regresi bivariat sederhana anatara yield spread dan aktivitas ekonomi masa depan dan regresi multivariat yang menambahkan variabel moneter dan keuangan untuk menguji robustness dari hubungan tersebut. Secara keseluruhan, studi ini menunjukkan bahwa meskipun pasar obligasi di negara ASEAN-5 memiliki berbagai keterbatasan, yield spread terbukti memiliki kemampuan prediksi di negara-negara ASEAN-5 selain Filipina. Namun, kemampuan prediksi sebagian besar terbukti signifikan untuk time horizon yang lebih lama yang menyiratkan bahwa ada jeda waktu dalam hubungan antara yield curve dan aktivitas ekonomi.

---

Despite the vast amount of literature that has examined the predictive ability of the yield curve on future economic activity, most of the literature are focused on the data for developed economies and thus, evidence of such relationship in developing countries is quite scarce. This study investigates whether the yield curve possess a predictive ability on future economic activity in the ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippine, Singapore, and Thailand) through the use of a time-series OLS model. We employ a straightforward bivariate regression between the yield spread and future economic activity and a multivariate regression that includes additional financial and monetary variable to test the robustness of the relationship. Overall, the result of our analysis shows that despite the various limitations in the ASEAN-5 bond market, the yield spread is proven to possess predictive ability in ASEAN-5 countries with the exception of Philippine. However, the predictive ability is mostly shown to be significant for the longer time horizon which implies that there's a time lag in the relationship between the yield spread and economic activity."