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"Using the intelligence evidence, the US with the UK as its main backup, had convinced UN Security Council's member states to decide on sending disarmament military forces to Iraq. Aside from the political reason which the two states might have as their real vest interest in Iraq, it is interesting to explore the condition of how could such proposed sophisticated intelligence might turn so wrong. There must be factors which caused that intelligence failure. Based on the thought that in principle intelligence product is heavily depended on input data and its analysis, the real failure factors of intelligence in assessing the real condition of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program is sought through examination on data collection and its analytical process.As the result it found that unavailability of information as the most common problem involving restrictions on the circulation of sensitive in-formation was one of the intelligence failure factors. The other factor is the systemic, systematic, idiosyncratic and communicative variables within analytical process employed by the intelligence community. Unavailability of information has been exacerbated by counterintelligence (deception and denial attempts) of Iraqi security apparatus and the absence of an intelligence collection in Baghdad with the capability to penetrate government, military and scientific establishment in the capital. Overestimation of Saddam Hussein's warfare capability is caused by mirror imaging of western method he would choose in nuclear and weaponry research, while conventional wisdom is indicated being use as the analytical bases and there were also subordination of intelligence to policy which not because of pressure but rather the insufficient evidence analyst could get."

"Serangan terorisme di Indonesia berevolusi dari penggunaan bahan peledak konvensional seperti ANFO (ammonium nitrate fuel oil) bergeser ke penggunaan bahan kimia, biologi, radioaktif dan nuklir (KBRN) yang dalam skala besar dapat diubah menjadi senjata pemusnah massal (weapon mass destruction). Data menunjukkan selama periode 2011-2019 tercatat 6 (enam) percobaan serangan teror menggunakan bahan KBRN yaitu arsenik dan racun ricin di Polsek Kemayoran (2011); Bom Nitroglyserin di Solo (2012); Bom Gas Chlorin di ITC Depok (2015); penggunaan Thorium Oksida di Bandung (2017); Bom Nitroglyserin, Bogor (2019) dan penemuan racun abrin di Cirebon (2019). Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah pendekatan kualitatif dengan studi kasus penggunaan WMD dalam serangan terorisme di Indonesia periode 2011-2019. Konsep teori kontra terorisme, pencegahan kejahatan dan kebijakan publik digunakan untuk menjelaskan strategi pencegahan serangan teroris menggunakan WMD di Indonesia. Makalah ini mengkaji peran Kementerian/Lembaga seperti POLRI, BNPT, BAPETEN, BNPB, TNI, Kemenperin dalam memitigasi dan menanggulangi serangan terorisme yang menggunakan WMD. Dari hasil wawancara dan studi pustaka, diketahui hanya institusi POLRI, BNPT dan BAPETEN yang telah memiliki protokol penanganan serangan terorisme menggunakan WMD namun masih bersifat sektoral. Kesimpulan dari penelitian ini adalah perlunya pengintegrasian protokol penanganan serangan terorisme menggunakan WMD yang ada saat ini berdasarkan kewenangan BNPT untuk mengkoordinasikan pelaksanaan strategi penanggulangan terorisme serta dilegalkan dalam bentuk produk hukum berupa Keputusan atau Peraturan Kepala BNPT.

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Terrorist attacks in Indonesia have evolved from the use of conventional explosives such as ANFO (ammonium nitrate fuel oil) to shift to the use of chemicals, biology, radioactivity and nuclear (KBRN) which on a large scale can be converted into weapons of mass destruction. Data shows that during the 2011-2019 period there were 6 (six) attempted terror attacks using KBRN material, namely arsenic and ricin poison in Kemayoran Sector Police (2011); Nitroglyserin Bombing in Solo (2012); Chlorin Gas Bomb at ITC Depok (2015); the use of Thorium Oxide in Bandung (2017); Nitroglyserin Bomb, Bogor (2019) and the discovery of abrin poison in Cirebon (2019). The method used in this research is a qualitative approach with a case study of the use of WMD in terrorism attacks in Indonesia in the period 2011-2019. The concept of counter terrorism theory, crime prevention and public policy is used to explain strategies to prevent terrorist attacks using WMD in Indonesia. This paper examines the role of Ministries/Institutions such as POLRI, BNPT, BAPETEN, BNPB, TNI, Ministry of Industry in mitigating and combating terrorism attacks using WMD. From the results of interviews and literature studies, it is known that only the POLRI, BNPT and BAPETEN institutions have protocols for handling terrorist attacks using WMD but are still sectoral in nature. The conclusion of this research is the necessity of integrating the handling protocol of terrorism attacks using WMD that exist today based on the authority of the BNPT to coordinate the implementation of the counterterrorism strategy and be legalized in the form of legal products namely Decree or Regulation of the Head of BNPT."

"Tesis ini membahas mengenai fenomena Keberhasilan Intelijen pada kasus Operation Neptune Spear yang merupakan operasi pengeksekusian Osama bin Laden di Abbottabad, Pakistan, pada 2 Mei 2011. Penelitian ini adalah penelitian kualitatif dengan desain deskriptif. Untuk melihat faktor-faktor yang menyebabkan keberhasilan tersebut, dilakukan komparasi terhadap dua kasus kegagalan intelijen, yakni kegagalan intelijen negatif pada kasus 9/11 dan kegagalan intelijen positif pada kasus pencarian Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) di Irak. Indikator yang digunakan adalah empat kunci kegagalan menurut Thomas Copeland (2007), yakni: (1) Kegagalan Kepemimpinan dan Kebijakan, (2) Isu-isu Organisasi dan Birokrasi, (3) Masalah dengan Informasi Peringatan, dan (4) Tantangan-tantangan Analitis.

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This thesis explores the phenomenon of Intelligence Success of Operation Neptune Spear, the operation to execute Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan, on May 2, 2011. The research is qualitative with descriptive design. To look at the factors causing intelligence success, a comparison is made of two cases of intelligence failure: negative intelligence failure of 9/11 and positive intelligence failure of finding Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) in Iraq. Thomas Copeland?s (2007) four failure keys are used as indicators. They are: (1) Leadership and Policy Failures, (2) Organizational and Bureaucratic Issues, (3) Problems with Warning Information, and (4) Analytical Challenges."

"Isu kepemilikan dan pengembangan peluru kendali atau senjata nuklir yang selanjutnya lebih dikenal dengan WMD dimana di dalamya meliputi kepemilikan senjata kimia, senjata biologi dan senjata nuklir telah menjadi fenomena dalam politik keamanan internasional. Komunitas internasional berusaha meminimalkan risiko yang ditimbulkan oleh perdagangan barang-barang penggunaan ganda dan militer. Proses proliferasi senjata pemusnah massal sendiri melibatkan beragam pelaku dengan kepentingan dan motivasi yang berbeda-beda. Negara-negara yang dikenal memiliki program senjata nuklir yang kontroversial adalah Korea Utara dan Iran. Seiring dengan perkembangan zaman dan teknologi, modus pendanaan terorisme dan pendanaan senjata pemusnah massal semakin berubah. Ancaman proliferasi senjata pemusnah massal juga menjadi semakin kompleks. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif dimana data yang diperoleh berasal dari wawancara dan studi dokumentasi. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa proliferasi senjata pemusnah massal, seperti nuklir, biologi, dan kimia, merupakan ancaman serius bagi Indonesia dan masyarakat internasional secara keseluruhan. Analisis intelijen strategis diperlukan untuk mengidentifikasi risiko, mengevaluasi dampak, dan menganalisis tren dalam menghadapi ancaman ini. Upaya internasional melalui traktat, protokol, diplomasi multilateral, dan dialog antar negara sangat penting untuk menangani proliferasi tersebut. Peningkatan pengawasan internasional, penerapan sanksi yang tegas, serta pertukaran informasi intelijen menjadi langkah kunci dalam menghadapi masalah ini. Rekomendasi kebijakan termasuk penegakan hukum yang efektif, peningkatan kerjasama internasional, kapasitas intelijen yang lebih baik, dan peningkatan kesadaran publik. Secara keseluruhan, penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa proliferasi senjata pemusnah massal memiliki konsekuensi serius bagi Indonesia dan masyarakat internasional. Upaya kolaboratif melalui traktat, protokol, diplomasi multilateral, dan dialog antar negara sangat penting dalam menghadapi tantangan ini. Langkah-langkah penting meliputi peningkatan pengawasan internasional, penerapan sanksi yang efektif, serta pertukaran informasi intelijen. Rekomendasi kebijakan mencakup penegakan hukum yang kuat, peningkatan kerjasama internasional, peningkatan kapasitas intelijen, dan peningkatan kesadaran publik.

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The issue of possession and development of ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons, commonly referred to as Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), has become a phenomenon in international security politics. The international community strives to minimize the risks posed by the trade of dual-use and military goods. The process of WMD proliferation involves various actors with different interests and motivations. Countries known for their controversial nuclear weapons programs include North Korea and Iran. With the advancement of time and technology, the modes of terrorism financing and funding for WMD have evolved. The threat of WMD proliferation has also become increasingly complex. This research adopts a qualitative method, gathering data through interviews and documentary studies.

In conclusion, this study asserts that the proliferation of WMD, including nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, poses a serious threat to Indonesia and the international community as a whole. Strategic intelligence analysis is required to identify risks, evaluate impacts, and analyze trends in addressing these threats. International efforts through treaties, protocols, multilateral diplomacy, and inter-state dialogues are crucial in addressing proliferation. Key steps involve enhancing international monitoring, implementing stringent sanctions, and facilitating intelligence information exchange. Policy recommendations include effective law enforcement, increased international cooperation, improved intelligence capacity, and heightened public awareness.

Overall, this research concludes that the proliferation of WMD has significant consequences for Indonesia and the international community. Collaborative efforts through treaties, protocols, multilateral diplomacy, and inter-state dialogues are vital in addressing these challenges. Important measures include enhancing international monitoring, implementing effective sanctions, and facilitating intelligence information exchange. Policy recommendations encompass robust law enforcement, increased international cooperation, improved intelligence capacity, and heightened public awareness."