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"One of strategic watersheds in Indonesia is the Ciliwung watershed. The rapid growth of development in this watershed has resulted in reduced forested lands and water catchment areas. The critical point is when the upstream area as a buffer zone also experiences uncontrolled land conversion for various purposes. Indonesia Law Number 41 of 1999 concerning Forestry, Article 18 contains a mandate for the Government to determine and to maintain the adequacy of forest cover in each watershed. This research seeks to understand the condition of rehabilitation and deforestation of forested land in Bogor Regency as the upstream of the Ciliwung watershed which affects its downstream water system in DKI Jakarta Province. By applying system dynamics modelling, it is expected that an ideal scenario of rehabilitation which the government must undertake will be identified to cope with deforestation rates in forested upstream watersheds. The methodological approach applied in this paper is a mixed method with system dynamics - based analysis methods. The results of model simulations carried out in Business as Usual conditions and Simulation of Scenarios Model going forward to 2060. From the alternative scenarios available, it reveals that the rehabilitation capability scenario of 3.6% / year is the most optimal in order to overtake deforestation rates in the upstream Ciliwung watershed. If the simulation setting is extended to 2100, the maximum area of ​​forested land in 2090 will be 8,134.05 ha (still below the carrying capacity of the available forest area)."

"ABSTRAKBanjir merupakan salah satu masalah yang dihadapi kota Jakarta tiap tahunnya. Salah satu bentuk dari penanganan masalah banjir tersebut adalah pembangunan Kanal Banjir Timur. Kanal Banjir Timur diharapkan dapat mengurangi banjir pada kawasan Timur dan Utara Jakarta. Akan tetapi, pembangunan tersebut tidak langsung menjadikan kawasan tersebut bebas banjir. Hasil penelitian sebelumnya menyatakan bahwa dengan adanya kanal Banjir Timur, potensi genangan yang mungkin terjadi adalah di kawasan Cakung Lama Susanti, 2017 . Pada kenyataannya pada tahun 2017 masih ditemui genangan di kawasan Sunter terutama pada Kelapa Gading. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui penyebab genangan yang terjadi di kawasan tersebut, dengan cara mengevaluasi kapasitas saluran di sistem drainase mikro Kelapa Gading menggunakan permodelan hidrologi HEC-RAS dan Win-TR. Hasil simulasi yang dilakukan diketahui bahwa beberapa saluran drainase mikronya tidak dapat menampung debit banjir yang ada, sehingga mengakibatkan genangan di beberapa daerah di Kelapa Gading. Berdasarkan hasil tersebut dapat disinpulkan bahwa Sistem Drainase Mikro pada kawasan tersebut tidak efektif dalam menampung debit banjir yang ada.

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ABSTRACTFlood is one of the problems that Jakarta is facing almost annually. To handle the issue, the government took an action to build East Flood Canal. The canal construction is expected to reduce flood especially in the east and north region of Jakarta. However, the construction did not make the area immediately free of flood risk. Previous study Susanti, 2017 showed that even with the existence of East Flood Canal, potential inundations may still happen, specifically in Cakung Lama area. In 2017 there were still several inundation points in Sunter area, especially in Kelapa Gading. This research aims to identify the cause of inundations in the area by evaluating channel capacity in micro drainage system in Kelapa Gading using hydrological model HEC RAS and WinTR. The simulations result showed that several channels in the system cannot accommodate the inflow, hence causing inundation in some areas in Kelapa Gading area. According to the simulation results, it can be concluded that the Micro Drainage Sysrem in Kelapa Gading is not effective to accomodate the inflow from local rain. "

"This paper aims to enlighten some properties of epikrast drainage system due to various local conditions. Karst area covered in this paper is the western part of Mount Sewu extending nearly 2/3 of the karstified area. It belongs to Gn Kidul Regency. Variables identified and measured in the field include secondary porosity and the general feature of geomorphological and hydrological condition. Laboratory analysis was also conducted to acquire data of rock, unfilled material porosity and texture of unfilled material. Drainage system of Mt Sewu karst varies in some localities. The properties of epikarst drainage system are seemingly governed by lithology and geological structure. Since lithology and geological structure are controls of karst type, the drainage system variation is related to the karst type as well."

"Perubahan tutupan lahan telah terjadi secara global termasuk juga di wilayah Asia Tenggara yang telah mengalami perubahan penggunaan lahan yang dramastis. Perubahan tersebut secara khusus terjadi pada perkebunan kelapa sawit yang meningkat dengan melakukan penebangan hutan yang memicu berbagai permasalahan lingkungan, termasuk di DAS Batanghari. DAS Batanghari merupakan DAS besar dengan luas sekitar 4,5 juta hektar dan masuk sebagai DAS Kritis akibat perubahan tutupan lahan. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini dilakukan dengan tujuan untuk mengidentifikasi tren perubahan tutupan lahan DAS Batanghari pada priode 1985-2020 dan mensimulasikan perubahan tutupan lahan hingga tahun 2040 menggunakan model Land Change Modeler. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan selama periode 1985-2020 terjadi tren perubahan hutan menjadi pertanian lahan kering berupa perkebunan sawit dan karet dikarenakan terjadinya perubahan kebijakan berupa otonomi daerah pada tahun 2001 dengan simulasi tahun 2040 menghasilkan perubahan dengan tren yang terus berlanjut.

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Land cover changes have occurred globally, including in the Southeast Asian region which has experienced dramatic changes in land use. These changes specifically occurred in oil palm plantations which increased by logging forests which triggered various environmental problems, including in the Batanghari watershed. The Batanghari watershed is a large watershed with an area of around 4.5 million hectares and is included as a Critical Watershed due to changes in land cover. So this research was conducted with the aim of identifying the trend of land cover change in the Batanghari watershed in the period 1985-2020 and simulating land cover change until 2040 using the Land Change Modeler model. The results of the study show that during the 1985-2020 period there was a trend of changing forests into dry agricultural land in the form of oil palm and rubber plantations due to policy changes in the form of regional autonomy in 2001 with a 2040 simulation resulting in changes with an ongoing trend."

"Penggunaan lahan memiliki peran vital yang memengaruhi perpindahan massa air dalam siklus hidrologi. Di sekitar Sub DA Ci Catih Hulu dalam kurun waktu 10 tahun terakhir mulaiberkembang berbagai macam industri mulai dari yang relatif besar hingga industri dalamskala yang relatif kecil. Perkembangan lahan terbangun khususnya permukiman dan industri secara masif dapat meningkatkan besar limpasan permukaan yang berdampak pada terjadinya degradasi lahan seperti erosi. Fokus penelitian ini adalah melakukan pemodelan hidrologi dengan model SWAT Soil Water Assesment Tools dan prediksi penggunaan lahan denganmetode CA-Markov Cellular Automata-Markov Chain untuk mengetahui pengaruh perubahan penggunaan lahan terhadap perubahan laju besaran erosi dan kemudian memprediksi perubahan laju besaran erosi tahun 2032 berdasarkan prediksi perubahan penggunaan lahan Sub DA Ci Catih Hulu pada tahun tersebut. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa tingkat keberagaman unit respon hidrologi URH memengaruhi laju besaran erosi tiap Sub-DAS. Hasil uji akurasi dan kalibrasi model adalah memuaskan dengan nilai NS dan R2untuk validasi model SWAT masing-masing sebesar 0,69 dan 0,71, dan nilai kappa untuk validasi model CA-Markov sebesar 0,89. Perubahan penggunaan lahan terutama penggunaan lahan hutan FRST dan sawah irigasi RICE diprediksi pada tahun 2032 mengalami penurunan luas di setiap Sub-DAS yang diikuti dengan peningkatan luas lahan terbangun permukiman dan industri dan pertanian campuran AGRL. Perubahan penggunaan lahan tersebut diprediksi akan memberikan kontribusi terhadap rata-rata kenaikan laju erosi disebesar 15 dari besar laju erosi tahun 2017.

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Landuse has a vital role that affects the movement of water on hidrological cycle. Around Upper Ci Catih Catchment Area in the past 10 years, many of various industries ranging from smal scale industries to large scale industries have increased. Increasing built up area, especially settlements and industries can increase runoff that have an impact on land degradation such as erosion. This study focuses on the hydrological modelling made by SWAT Soil Water Assesment Tools and land use change prediction using CA Markov Cellular Automata Markov Chain to find the effects of land use changes on the erosion rate changes, and predict the erosion rate changes in 2032 based on land use changes prediction in Upper Ci Catih Catchment Area in that year.

This study shows that variations of Hydrologic Response Unit HRU conditions affects the erosion rate in every sub watershed. The result of accuracy and calibration test satisfied, which NS and R2 mark for SWAT validation is 0,69and 0,71, and kappa coefficient value for CA Markov model validation by 89. The changes of land use especially forest FRST and irrigated rice fields. RICE is predicted in 2032 will decrease in every Sub basin. That matter will affect the increase of average erosion rate by 15 of the erosion rate in 2017 on Upper Ci Catih Catchment Area."

"Daerah Aliran Sungai (DAS) Ciliwung adalah salah satu sumber air permukaan yang penting bagi Jakarta dan Jawa Barat, Indonesia, yang menjadi tumpuan hidup bagi jutaan penduduk. Namun, sungai Ciliwung mengalir melalui daerah-daerah yang padat penduduk di Jakarta, sehingga kebutuhan akan air terutama untuk keperluan domestik menjadi sangat tinggi. Meskipun kebutuhan ini tinggi, DAS Ciliwung telah mengalami degradasi yang menyebabkan penurunan pasokan air sehingga berkontribusi pada fenomena kekeringan di wilayah tersebut. Analisis fenomena kekeringan ini akan menggunakan metode Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) selama periode 42 tahun. Analisis ini menyatakan bahwa daerah-daerah tertentu dalam DAS ternyata lebih rentan terhadap kondisi kekeringan parah yang terjadi akibat perubahan pola presipitasi. Perbandingan data hasil SPI dari tahun 1980-1999 dan 2000-2022 menunjukkan pergeseran signifikan dalam pola presipitasi, yang mengindikasikan peningkatan kekeringan meteorologis akibat perubahan iklim. Analisis ini, berdasarkan data dari 13 stasiun hujan, menunjukkan hasil yang mencolok bahwa daerah yang paling kering teridentifikasi di sekitar FTUI, dengan 141 kasus kekeringan tercatat dari tahun 2003-2022 dan peningkatan keseluruhan kekeringan di DAS Ciliwung dari 53,95% selama periode 1980-1999 menjadi 61,23% pada periode 2000-2022, serta penurunan kebasahan dari 46,05% menjadi 38,77%, yang pada garis besar menunjukkan peningkatan kekeringan sebesar 7,28%.

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The Ciliwung Watershed is a crucial source of surface water for Jakarta and West Java, Indonesia, serving as a lifeline for millions of residents. The Ciliwung River flows through densely populated areas in Jakarta, leading to a high demand for water primarily for domestic purposes. Despite this demand, watershed degradation has led to a decrease in water supply, contributing to drought phenomena in the region. This thesis analyzes this drought phenomena using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method over a 42-years period. The analysis reveals that certain areas within the watershed are more prone to severe drought conditions, potentially linked to changes in precipitation patterns. A comparison of SPI data from 1980-1999 and 2000-2022 highlights significant shifts in precipitation patterns, suggesting an increase in meteorological droughts due to climate change. The analysis, based on data from 13 rainfall stations, shows a notable result of the driest area identified is around FTUI, with 141 drought cases recorded from 2003-2022 and increase in overall Ciliwung Watershed dryness from 53.95% during the 1980-1999 period to 61.23% in the 2000-2022 period, and a corresponding decrease in wetness from 46.05% to 38.77%, indicating a 7.28% increase in dryness."

"Meningkatnya jumlah penduduk di kawasan DAS Ciliwung, Citarum, Citanduy, dan Cimanuk menyebabkan berkembang pesatnya kontruksi. Permintaan yg signifikan akan jalan sebagai transportasi serta bangunan dan perumahan untuk tempat tinggal sehingga daerah kedap airnya pun meningkat. Model Impervious Cover, diusulkan oleh Schueler 2003 , mengkorelasi persen kekedapan pada subDAS dan kualitas air sungai serta memberikan pengukuran prediksi terhadap indikator air sungai ke dalam kategori kategori lalu mendefinisi tingkat keparahan dan kemungkinannya untuk pulih. National Sanitation Foundation Water Quality Index NSFWQI adalah salah satu alat analitis yang umum digunakan untuk meringkas data kualitas air yang mana mengubah konsentrasi sembilan parameter ke satu dari 5 Water Quality Rating WQR . Tujuan kajian ini adalah untuk menguji penerapan dan kesesuaian pendekatan ICM dan NSFWQI dalam memprediksi kualitas air sungai Ciliwung, Citarum, Citanduy, dan Cimanuk, Jawa Barat, Indonesia.

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The increasing of population at Ciliwung, Citarum, Citanduy, and Cimanuk watersheds leads a rapid development especially in construction fields. There is significant demand to build roads for transportation as well as buildings and houses for settlement, thus, escalate the impervious area. The impervious cover model ICM, proposed by Schueler 2003, brings off correlation between the percentage of subwatershed imperviousness and stream quality as well as outlines specific quantitative or narrative prediction for stream indicators within each stream category to define the severity of current stream and the prospects for their future restoration.

The National Sanitation Foundation Water Quality Index NSFWQI is one of analytical tools that commonly used to summarize water quality data, which converts the concentration data for nine water quality parameters into one of five Water Quality Rating WQR . The study is aimed to test the applicability and conformity of both ICM and NSFWQI approaches for predicting stream quality of Ciliwung, Citarum, Citanduy, and Cimanuk river, West Java, Indonesia."

"ABSTRAKPenelitian ini mencoba memformulasikan kebijakan pengelolaan Daerah AliranSungai (DAS) Citarum dalam kerangka pengendalian banjir di KabupatenBandung. Model dinamis digunakan untuk menggambarkan sistem danmengetahui faktor pengungkit (leverage factor) serta kebijakan yang diambiluntuk mengoptimalkan pengelolaan DAS Citarum dalam pengendalian banjir.Salah satu temuan penting dalam dalam penelitian ini adalah Pengaruh SubsistemGangguan Lingkungan terhadap subsistem lain sangat kuat. Sebelum anggaransemakin dominan, Gangguan Lingkungan mampu menurunkan Area TerbukaHijau ke level sangat rendah. Selain itu, Gangguan Lingkungan juga mendorongpenurunan Kapasitas Citarum sekalipun Anggaran terus membesar. PeranPendidikan saat ini belum mampu mereduksi tingkat gangguan lingkungan.

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ABSTRACTThis study is to formulate a Riverbasin ( DAS ) Management Policy in theframework of Citarum flood control in Bandung Regency. A System Dynamicsmodel is used to describe the system and to identify the leverage factors as wellas alternative policies for optimizing the management of the Citarum RiverbasinFlood Control. The most important finding in this study is the very strong impactof Environmental Disturbance Subsystem to other subsystems. TheEnvironmental Disturbance reduces Green Open Areas to a very low level beforeBudget dominates it in the system. In addition, the Environmental Disturbancealso push down the Citarum Capacity despite the Budget rises continously. Therole of the existing education among the society has not been able to reduce thelevel of the Environmental Disturbance."

"This study is intended to simulate the river discharges in major watersheds of northwestern Java, Indonesia. The five largest watersheds are considered: Ciujung, Cisadane, Ciliwung, Citarum, and Cimanuk. The simulation period covers the 20th century and early 21st century, from January 1901 to June 2006, at a monthly time step. Discharge simulation was carried out using STREAM (Spatial Tools for River Basins and Environmental and Analysis of Management Option). The input data for the simulation are climate (precipitation and temperature), land cover and topographic data. Setup and analysis of input data are also part of this study. The Mann-Kendall test and linear regression were used to detect trends. Temperature datasets show statistically significant increasing trends for all periods and areas. Significant increasing trends of precipitation occurred in the latest 16-year period (1990-2006) in hilly and middle areas. A positive trend of simulated discharge is seen in all watersheds and periods. They are only significant for Ciujung (periods of 1950-2006 and 1975-2006), Cisadane (periods of 1950-2006 and 1990-2006), and Ciliwung (periods of 1950-2006, 1975-2006, and 1990- 2006). The most noteworthy trend is seen in the 1990-2006 period. Over the course of the 20th and early decade of the 21st century, monthly discharges have increased by 3% to 9%."