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"ABSTRAKThe expected equity risk premium is a key input in various financial applications. Different methods exist for estimating the risk premium. This paper applies two approaches to estimate it in the markets of Greater China. More specifically, the historical average and relative estimation are carefully examined. The first approach is applied to estimate the equity risk premium when the markets are recovering from a trough. Then the relative estimation approach is applied to justify those findings, taking into consideration the lower rate of return required of Chinese investors due to a lack of investment opportunities. After these adjustments, the risk premium in Mainland China is found to be close to those in Hong Kong and Taiwan. All of these markets have a higher risk premium than in the US market. The risk premiums for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are about 8% and 10%, respectively. The risk premiums for the Hong Kong and Taiwan markets are 8% and 9% compared to a long-term forward-looking risk premium of about 4% for the US market."

"Since the dawn of the industrial revolution, and the ushering in of an era of global economic relations, the United States and Europe have been the core poles of economic power. However, China along with India is increasingly challenging the traditional economic hegemony. An issue of great importance is how this shift in the global economic balance of power will affect developing economies and the transition economies of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), which are located in China's backyard and deeply integrated into its economy through regional supply chains."

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Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa dampak ACFTA terhadap neraca perdagangan dari negara ASEAN dan China serta Indonesia. Dengan mengacu pada model gravitasi, penelitian ini membuktikan bahwa penurunan tarif sebagai konsekuensi dari ACFTA berpengaruh signifikan pada peningkatan ekspor dan impor pada negara ASEAN dan China. Namun, ACFTA tidak mempengaruhi keseimbangan neraca perdagangan pada negara ASEAN dan China secara agregat karena dampak ACFTA pada ekspor dan dampak ACFTA pada impor dapat saling meniadakan. Studi ini juga menunjukkan bahwa penurunan tarif bukan merupakan faktor penting dalam peningkatan ekspor dan impor di Indonesia. Sehingga, dampak ACFTA terhadap keseimbangan neraca perdagangan tidak dapat diukur secara akurat.

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This study estimates the impact of ACFTA on ASEAN countries and China`s trade balance in general, and also Indonesia`s trade balance in specific. Using the gravity model, this paper finds that the impact of tariffs elimination due to the implementation of ACFTA increased exports and imports for ASEAN countries and China. However, the aggregate trade balances of ASEAN member countries and China is zero since the impact of ACFTA on imports offset the impact of ACFTA on exports. Tariffs have not played significant role on increasing Indonesia`s exports and imports. As a result, the impact of ACFTA on Indonesia`s trade balance cannot be quantified clearly.

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"ABSTRAKSkripsi ini membahas tentang hubungan kerja sama dan konflik di antaraTiongkok dengan negara-negara Indocina. Penelitian ini berusaha menjawabpertanyaan penelitian mengenai alasan di balik keberlangsungan Greater MekongSubregion Economic Cooperation (GMS) tahun 1992-2014, meskipun terdapatkonflik antara Tiongkok dengan negara-negara Indocina. Tujuan penelitian iniialah untuk memahami pemenuhan kepentingan negara anggota yang menjadialasan keberlangsungan GMS. Dengan metode studi kasus tunggal, penelitian inimenggunakan pendekatan realist institutionalism melalui konsep institusi sebagaiwadah kepentingan negara, serta konsep negara besar dan kecil dalam institusiinternasional. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa karakter GMS telahmendorong pemenuhan kepentingan negara anggota dengan kepemimpinanTiongkok dan terakomodirnya voice opportunities bagi negara-negara GMS-5.Pemenuhan kepentingan ini memberikan keuntungan yang bersifat mutual gains,berubahnya fokus menjadi kerja sama, serta bertahannya negara anggota dalaminstitusi. Akibatnya, hubungan timbal balik di antara GMS dan negara anggotanyaini berdampak pada keberlangsungan GMS pada tahun 1992-2014, meskipun disisi lain terdapat konflik di antara Tiongkok dengan negara-negara Indocina.Penelitian ini memberikan sumbangsih kepada studi Institusi Internasional danEkonomi Politik Internasional.

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ABSTRACTThis undergraduate thesis discusses about cooperation and conflicts betweenChina and Indochina countries. This research tries to answer the continuity ofGreater Mekong Subregion Economic Cooperation (GMS) in the period of 1992-2014, eventhough there were several conflicts happening between China andIndochina countries. The purpose for this research is to understand the fulfilmentof member countries? interests that can answer the reason of GMS? continuity.Along with single case study method, this research used realist institutionalism asapproach, through the concept of institution?s role as server of member countries?interest, and concept of big and small countries in international institutions. Thisresearch showed that characteristics of GMS helped serving the interest ofmember countries, through leadership of China and voice opportunities for GMS-5 countries. This fulfilment of interest gave impact to mutual gains between smalland big countries, refocusing the sub-region to cooperation, and lastingparticipation of the member countries. In consequence, this reciprocal relationbetween GMS as institution and its member contributed to the continuity of GMSin period of 1992-2014, eventhough there were several conflicts happeningbetween China and Indochina countries. This research gives contribution to thestudy of International Institution and International Political Economy."

"Data count sering diasumsikan berdistribusi Poisson yang hanya memiliki satu parameter dengan mean dan variansi sama. Namun pada kenyataannya, sering ditemukan data count dengan variansi yang lebih besar dari mean, keadaan ini dikenal dengan overdispersi. Saat terjadi overdispersi, maka data count tidak berdistribusi Poisson, sehingga perlu dicari distribusi lain yang dapat digunakan untuk menganalisis data count. Salah satu distribusi yang dapat digunakan adalah distribusi Binomial Negatif yang merupakan distribusi Campuran Poisson-Gamma (Mixture Poisson-Gamma Distribution). Pada tugas akhir ini akan dijelaskan mengenai perumusan distribusi Binomial Negatif sebagai distribusi Campuran Poisson-Gamma (Mixture Poisson-Gamma Distribution), penaksiran parameter pada distribusi Binomial Negatif yang merupakan distribusi campuran Poisson-Gamma, serta mempelajari sifat-sifat taksirannya.

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Counts data, often assumed follows a Poisson distribution has same mean and variance value. But in fact, count data often has variance value greater than mean value, this condition is called by overdispersion. When overdispersion occured, data count doesn't have a Poisson distribution, so need to find another distribution which can be applied for data count analyzing. One of distribution which often be applied is Negative Binomial distribution which is form as a mixture Poisson-Gamma distribution. In this minithesis, estimators of Negative Binomial distribution (Mixture Poisson-Gamma distribution) and their characteristics will be explained."

"ABSTRAKCadangan klaim merupakan salah satu permasalahan utama pada perusahaan asuransi. Kurang tepatnya perhitungan estimasi cadangan klaim dapat mempengaruhi kesehatan dari perusahaan asuransi. Banyak metode yang telah dikembangkan peneliti-peneliti untuk mengestimasi nilai cadangan klaim. Salah satu metode yang paling sering digunakan dalam mengestimasi cadangan klaim di dunia asuransi adalah metode Chain-Ladder dan variasinya. Selain Metode tersebut Hudecova dan Pesta 2013 mengembangkan metode terbaru yaitu Generalized Estimating Equations GEE . Metode GEE merupakan pengembangan dari metode Generalized Linear Method. Keunggulan metode GEE dengan metode GLM adalah pada metode GEE memiliki pemodelan dari hubungan antara periode kejadian dan periode pengembangan pada data. Metode ini juga dapat melakukan estimasi tanpa memerlukan informasi distribusi dari data.Pada penelitian ini akan mencoba untuk melakukan estimasi perhitungan cadangan klaim dengan menggunakan metode Generalized Estimating Equations GEE . Tujuan utama dalam penelitian ini adalah menerapkan serta membandingkan metode GEE dengan Chain-Ladder. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data klaim lini bisnis asuransi kendaraan bermotor PT XYZ selama tahun 2015 yang masuk pada jenis bisnis short-tail. Hasil estimasi metode GEE lebih akurat dibandingkan dengan estimasi yang dihasilkan metode Chain-Ladder berdasarkan data klaim yang terjadi pada tahun 2016. MAPE GEE dengan struktur korelasi exchangeable yang digabungkan dengan fungsi varians linier memiliki tingkat kesalahan terkecil, yaitu sebesar 55 .

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ABSTRACTClaim reserve is one of the biggest problem in insurance company. Inaccurate calculations of claim reserve could lead to downfall of insurance company. There is a lot of methods developed by the experts to estimate the amount of claim reserve. One of the most famous method is Chain Ladder. In addition to the method that already mentioned, Hudecova and Pesta 2013 have developed a new method, which called as Generalized Estimating Equation GEE . This method form as the development of Generalized Linear Method method. The advantage of GEE method with GLM method is the method has modelling out of the relation between the accident period and the development period of the data. This research would like to test making claim reserve estimation using the Generalized Estimating Equations GEE method. The goals of this research is to apply and compare the GEE method with the most famous method, which is Chain Ladder. The data that been used is historical data from PT XYZ motor insurance company from year 2015 2016 that come under the type of short tail business. The result shows, that the estimation value from GEE method base on actual claim in 2016 period. MAPE GEE with exchangeable correlation structure combined with linear variance function has the smallest error rate, which is 55 ."

"Tulisan ini bertujuan mengevaluasi efektivitas manajemen risiko dan dampak stimulus covid pada pengelolaan portofolio LaR dengan menggunakan kerangka COSO ERM 2017. Data yang digunakan adalah data primer berupa wawancara yang diperoleh dari pihak-pihak yang terlibat langsung dalam pengelolaan LaR dan data sekunder yaitu berupa data / informasi internal terkait pengelolaan LaR. Hasil evaluasi efektivitas manajamen risiko terkait pengelolaan LaR menunjukan bahwa strategi telah dijalankan mengikuti komponen pada kerangka COSO ERM 2017 dan komponen tersebut efektif mendukung strategi pengelolaan LaR di segmen korporasi bank XYZ. Sedangkan hasil evaluasi dampak stimulus covid dalam pengelolaan LaR menunjukan bahwa stimulus covid dapat mempertahankan dan memperbaiki portofolio debitur LaR khususnya pada debitur yang memperoleh stimulus covid sehingga menyebabkan jumlah debitur dan outstanding kredit mengalami perbaikan.

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This paper aims to evaluate the effectiveness of risk management and the impact of the Covid stimulus on LaR portfolio management using the COSO ERM 2017 framework. The data used are primary data in the form of interviews obtained from parties directly involved in LaR management and secondary data in the form of internal data / information related with LaR management. The results of the evaluation of the effectiveness of risk management related with LaR management show that the strategy has been implemented following the components in the COSO ERM 2017 framework and these components are effective in supporting the LaR management strategy in the corporate segment of Bank XYZ. Meanwhile, the results of the evaluation of the impact of the Covid stimulus in the management of LaR showed that the Covid stimulus could maintain and improve the LaR debtor portfolio, especially for debtors who received the Covid stimulus, causing the number of debtors and outstanding credit has been improved."

"ABSTRAKPada proyek EPC Migas sering mengalami pembengkakan biaya yang diakibatkan tidak tepatnya perhitungan biaya kontingensi yang didasarkan kepada persentaseterhadap total biaya/estimasi proyek secara keseluruhan. Penelitian inimenentukan pemodelan bagi estimasi biaya kontingensi dengan kombinasi rangeestimating dan fuzzy logic untuk menentukan risiko terbesar dalam pengaruh danhubungannya terhadap besar nilai kontingensi pada proyek EPC berdasarkan riskregister (daftar yang berisikan risiko, mitigasi risiko,dampak serta frekuensi risikoyang kemungkinan akan terjadi pada suatu proyek EPC) pada suatu pelaksanaanproyek migas berdasarkan pengalaman yang telah dilaksanakan sebelumnyaoleh perusahaan R agar dapat menjadi referensi dalam penentuan besaran cotcontingency. Penentuan biaya kontingensi ini dengan range estimate dandilanjutkan dengan fuzzy logic dengan Matlab 2015a. Cost Contingency yangdidapat diaplikasikan dengan proyek yang diteliti dan sesuai dengan aktualdengan penyimpangan yang cukup minim dengan asumsi risiko terbesar adalahasumsi yang berubah, rework serta kompetensi yang kurang di dalam team proyek

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ABSTRACTEPC Oil & gas project always have cost overrun since the imprecise costcontingency estimation which based on the percentage of the project total cost. Inthe Oil & Gas EPC projects often experience cost overruns due to inaccuratecalculations contingency fee based on the percentage of the total cost / estimatedoverall project. This study determines the modeling for the estimated costs ofcontingency with a combination of range Estimating and fuzzy logic to determinethe greatest risk in influence and its relation to the great value of contingency onEPC projects based on risk register (register containing risk, risk mitigation,impact and frequency of risk that is likely to happen on a project EPC) at an oiland gas project implementation based on the experience that has been carried outpreviously by the company in order to be implemented as reference forestimating cost contingency. Determining the cost of this contingency with arange estimate and continued with fuzzy logic with Matlab 2015a. CostContingency obtained was applied to projects studied and correspond to actualdeviations are quite minimal with bigger risks are changing of engineeringasumptions, re-work & lack of competence in project team"