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"ABSTRAKSelisih antara jumlah pasokan dan kebutuhan gas bumi di Indonesia yang semakin meningkat setiap tahunnya diakibatkan jumlah pasokan gas bumi semakin menurun dan kebutuhan akan gas bumi yang semakin meningkat serta kurangnya penemuan cadangan gas terbaru. Hal ini mendorong pemerintah Indonesia untuk mengembangkan sumber daya gas lainnya seperti shale gas sehingga dapat diproduksi secara komersial. Potensi shale gas Indonesia diperkirakan mencapai 574 TCF yang tersebar di Sumatera, Kalimantan, Jawa dan Papua. Formasi Meliat yang berada di Cekungan Tarakan memiliki sumber daya shale gas yang bisa dihasilkan secara teknis sebesar 3.8 TCF dari gas-in-place resiko sebesar 25.1 TCF. Tujuan penelitian ini mengkaji skema kontrak gross split terhadap aspek keekonomian dari pengembangan lapangan shale gas di Formasi Meliat, Cekungan Tarakan.Skenario dasar dalam penelitian ini yaitu membuat tiga profil laju alir yang dikembangkan dengan menggunakan kurva penurunan hiperbolik Arps, antara lain profil produksi rendah dengan laju alir awal (qi) sebesar 50 mmcf/mo, profil produksi sedang qi=125 mmcf/mo dan profil produksi tinggi qi=200 mmcf/mo. Amerika Serikat dan lapangan migas terdekat menjadi benchmarking dalam membuat biaya investasi pengembangan lapangan shale gas di Cekungan Tarakan. Pada kondisi analisis kontrak gross split memiliki NPV>0, IRR>10% pada profil produksi sedang dan tinggi. Analisis sensitivitas dilakukan pada profil produksi, biaya pengeboran dan harga gas. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa faktor yang lebih berpengaruh terhadap peningkatan NPV dalam kontrak gross split adalah profil produksi. NPV positif dicapai ketika gas bumi dijual pada $9.24/MMBTU pada profil produksi sedang dan $6.43/MMBTU pada profil produksi tinggi.

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ABSTRACTThe difference between the amount of supply and demand of natural gas in Indonesia is increasing each year year due to the decreasing natural gas supply with increasing demand and the lack of discovery of the latest gas reserves. This encourages the Indonesian government to develop other gas resources such as shale gas so that it can be produced commercially. Shale gas potential in Indonesia was predicted reached 574 TCF which spread in Sumatra, Kalimantan, Java and Papua. Meliat Formation, located in Tarakan Basin has shale gas potential in which 3.8 TCF is technically recoverable with 25.1 TCF risked gas in place. The purpose of this study is to examine the gross split contract scheme on technoeconomic aspect of shale gas field development in Meliat Formation in Tarakan Basin.The basic scenario in this research is to create three flow rate profiles developed using the Arps hyperbolic decline curves, consist a low production profile with initial production (qi) of 50 mmcf / mo, medium production profile qi = 125 mmcf / mo and high production profile qi = 200 mmcf / mo. The The United States and the nearest oil and gas field in Tarakan Basin have become a benchmark in making investment costs for the development of this shale gas field. In the analysis condition, gross split contracts have NPV> 0, IRR> 10% on medium and high production profiles. Sensitivity analysis is carried out on the production profile, drilling costs and wellhead gas price. The analysis shows that the factor that has more affected on the increase in NPV in gross split contract is the production profile. A positive NPV is reached when gas price is $ 9.24 / MMBTU at medium production profile and $ 6.43 / MMBTU at high production profile."

"ABSTRAKJumlah pasokan dan kebutuhan gas bumi di Indonesia masih dalam kondisi defisit yang diakibatkan jumlah pasokan gas bumi semakin menurun dan kebutuhan akan gas bumi yang semakin meningkat setiap tahunnya. Namun, defisit antara pasokan dan kebutuhan dapat diperkecil seiring penemuan cadangan gas bumi konvensional yang baru atau dengan mengembangkan lapangan gas nonkonvensional seperti shale gas. Potensi shale gas Indonesia diperkirakan mencapai 574 TCF yang tersebar di Sumatera, Kalimantan, Jawa dan Papua. Formasi Naintupo yang berada di Cekungan Tarakan memiliki sumber daya shale gas yang bisa dihasilkan secara teknis sebesar 5 TCF darigas-in-place resiko sebesar 35 TCF. Penelitian ini akan membahas mengenai aspek teknoekonomi dari pengembangan lapangan shale gas di Formasi Naintupo, Cekungan Tarakan dengan menggunakan skema Kontrak Bagi Hasil (Production Sharing Contract) dan skema kontrak gross split.Tiga profil laju alir akan dikembangkan dengan menggunakan kurva penurunanhiperbolik Arps, yaitu profil produksi rendah dengan laju alir awal (qi) sebesar 150 mmcf/mo, profil produksi sedang (qi=250 mmcf/mo) dan profil produksi tinggi (qi=350 mmcf/mo) . Perkiraaan biaya investasi berdasarkan benchmarking biaya pengembangan lapangan shale gas di Amerika Serikat dan pengembangan lapangan migas di Cekungan Tarakan. Pada kondisi analisis kontrak bagi hasil dan kontrak gross split memiliki NPV>0, IRR>10% pada profil produksi sedang dan tinggi. Bagi kontraktor, kontrak bagi hasil akan lebih menguntungkan pada profil produksi rendah dan kontrak gross split lebihmenguntungkan pada profil produksi tinggi. Analisis sensitivitas menunjukkan bahwa faktor yang lebih berpengaruh terhadap peningkatan NPV dalam kontrak bagi hasil adalah harga gas dan dalam kontrak gross split adalah profil produksi. Untuk mendapatkan nilai NPV yang positif pada Kontrak Bagi Hasil, gas bumi harus dijual pada harga $12,05/MMBTU pada profil produksi rendah, $7,88/MMBTU pada profil produksi sedang dan $6,03 pada profil laju alir tinggi. Pada kontrak gross split, NPV yang positif dicapai ketika gas bumi dijual pada $8,42/MMBTU pada profil produksi sedang dan $6,52/MMBTU pada profil produksi tinggi.

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ABSTRACTThe amount of supply and demand of natural gas in Indonesia is still in deficitcondition due to the decreasing supply with increasing demand each year. This deficit of supply and demand could be minimized by new reserve discovery of conventional natural gas or by developing unconventional gas field like shale gas. Shale gas potential in Indonesia was predicted reached 574 TCF which spread in Sumatra, Kalimantan, Java and Papua. Naintupo Formation, located in Tarakan Basin has shale gas potential in which 5 TCF is technically recoverable with 35 TCF risked gas in place. This study will discuss technoeconomic aspect of shale gas field development in Naintupo Formation in Tarakan Basin by using production sharing contract scheme and gross split contract scheme.Three flow profiles would be developed by using Arps hyperbolic decline curves, consist of low production profile with initial production (qi) of 150 mmcf/mo, medium production profile (qi = 250 mmcf/mo) and high production profile (qi = 350 mmcf/mo). Costs estimation were based on benchmarking cost of developed shale gas field in United States and nearby oil/gas field development in Tarakan Basin. On the base case, production sharing contract and gross split contract gave NPV>0, IRR>10% on middle and high production profile. For contractor, production sharing contract was more profitable in low production profile and gross split contract was more profitable on highproduction profile. Sensitivity analysis showed that the NPV increase was more affected by gas price in production sharing contract and production profile was more influential in gross split contract. To develop positive NPV in production sharing contract, gas price should be $12.05/MMBTU in low production profile, $7.88/MMBTU in middle production profile and $6.03 in high production profile. In gross split contract, positive NPV was reached when gas price was $8.42/MMBTU in middle production profile and $6.52/MMBTU in high production profile."

"ABSTRAKKebutuhan energi di Indonesia semakin meningkat dan cadangan gas alamsemakin menipis. Indonesia memiliki potensi shale gas yang besar dan perlu dikembangkan. Pada tesis ini dibahas perbandingkan karakteristik shale gas diAmerika dan Indonesia. Perbandingan perkembangan shale gas antara lain dataeksplorasi, teknologi, infrastruktur dan sistem kontrak. Perbandingan karakteristikshale gas dari umur batuan, tipe endapan dan properti batuan menentukankesuksesan hydraulic fracturing. Studi shale gas dilakukan di Cekungan Bintuniyang memiliki potensi Risked GIP 114,3 TCF dan TRR 28,6 TCF. Profil produksishale gas menggunakan metode penurunan hiperbolik dan perkiraan biayainvestasi berdasarkan data di Amerika dan Indonesia.Analisa keekonomian shale gas di Cekungan Bintuni menunjukkan sistemkonsesi lebih menarik dibanding sistem PSC bagi perusahaan. Nilai IRRmaksimal sistem konsesi sebesar 16,57% sedangkan IRR maksimal sistem PSCdengan porsi bagi hasil 55%:45% sebesar 15,8%. Pemberian insentif Tax Holidayselama 5 tahun pada sistem PSC porsi bagi hasil 55%:45% pada tipe sumurpenurunan sedang memberikan IRR 14,04% dan pemasukan bagi negara $720juta selama 20 tahun masa produksi

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ABSTRACTIndonesia’s energy demand increases otherwise natural gas resourcesdiminish. Indonesia has big shale gas resources and need to be developed. Thisthesis compares shale gas in America and Indonesia. Comparation of shale gasdevelopment includes exploration data, technology, infrastructure and contractsystem. Comparation of shale gas characteristic such as source rock age,depositional type and property of rock determine hydraulic fracturing successes.Shale gas study performed in Bintuni basin with 114,3 TCF Risked GIP and TRR28,6 TCF. Production profile shale gas using hyperbolic decline curve method andinvestment cost based on America and Indonesia data.Economic analysis of shale gas in Bintuni basin shows that concessionsystem more attractive than PSC for company. The best IRR concession systemwas 16,57% and PSC system was 15,8% on 55%:45% profit split. The present oftax holiday incentive for 5 years using 55%:45% profit split on medium declinerate wells results IRR 14,04% and $720 million for Government of Indonesiaduring 20 year production lifetime."

"Pengembangan lapangan migas marjinal wilayah lepas pantai pada skema Production Sharing Contract (PSC) gross split memiliki tantangan teknis dan ekonomis. Pada penelitian ini berfokus pada analisis secara ekonomis terhadap pengembangan lapangan migas lepas pantai marjinal. Metode pengembangan lapangan menggunakan tiga skenario yaitu skenario I dengan Konvensional Platform; skenario II dengan Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO); skenario III dengan Sea Moveable Platform (SMP). Analisis ekonomis menggunakan indikator penganggaran modal, seperti NPV, IRR, dan Payback Period. Evaluasi keekonomian dilakukan untuk mencari metode terbaik pengembangan lapangan migas marjinal dengan menerapkan skema PSC Gross Split. Diharapkan dari skenario pengembangan tersebut, mampu meningkatkan keekonomian perusahaan. Selanjutnya dilakukan analisis sensitivitas untuk mengetahui sensitivitas perubahan parameter berikut: biaya kapital (CAPEX), biaya operasi produksi (OPEX), dan harga minyak dan gas berpengaruh terhadap nilai NPV, IRR, dan bagian pemerintah. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa skenario terbaik adalah Skenario I untuk produksi 7 tahun maupun produksi 10 tahun. Analisis keekonomian menunjukkan bahwa Skenario I dengan waktu produksi 7 tahun memberikan NPV sebesar USD 37,6 juta, IRR sebesar 30,1% dengan Payback Period 3 tahun. Sedangkan untuk waktu produksi 10 tahun diperoleh NPV sebesar USD 35,9 juta, IRR sebesar 25,2% dengan Payback Period 3 tahun.

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The development of marginal oil and gas fields in the offshore area in the gross split Production Sharing Contract (PSC) scheme has technical and economic challenges. This research focuses on economic analysis of the development of marginal offshore oil and gas fields. The field development method uses three scenarios, scenario I with Conventional Platforms; scenario II with Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO); scenario III with Sea Moveable Platform (SMP). The duration of production time uses 7 years and 10 years. Economic analysis uses capital budgeting indicators, such as NPV, IRR, and Payback Period. An economic evaluation was carried out to find the best method for developing marginal oil and gas fields by applying the Gross Split PSC scheme. It is expected from the development scenario, it can improve the companys economy. The sensitivity analysis is then performed to determine the sensitivity of the following parameter changes: capital costs (CAPEX), production operating costs (OPEX), and oil and gas prices affect the value of NPV, IRR and the Government take. The results show that the best scenario is Scenario I both of production time 7 years and 10 years. The economic analysis show that Scenario I with production time 7 years is attributed to NPV of USD 37.6 million, IRR of 30.1% with Payback Period of 3 years. While for production time 10 years, NPV of USD 35.9 million, IRR of 25.2% with Payback Period of 3 years.

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"Oil Shale merupakan salah satu bahan bakar non konvensional berbentuk sedimen batuan halus, yang dapat menjadi sumber energi alternatif. Dalam proses retorting, Oil Shale dapat dikonversi menjadi shale oil dan shale gas. Sebelumnya, terdapat beberapa penelitian yang membahas potensi shale gas untuk memproduksi gas hidrogen. Pada penelitian ini, dilakukan pemodelan sistem menggunakan Aspen Plus untuk mengetahui potensi pemanfaatan keseluruhan shale oil beserta shale gas hasil dari retorting untuk memproduksi hidrogen menggunakan teknologi chemical looping. Selain itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui efisiensi energi dari sistem apabila meneruskan tahapan produksi hidrogen hingga ke tahap produksi ammonia untuk penyimpanan. Berdasarkan hasil simulasi, produk retorting dari 0,126 kg/s bahan baku oil shale komposisi New Albany, yaitu 0,0063 kg/s shale oil dan 0,0024 kg/s shale gas, dapat memproduksi hidrogen sebanyak 0,0037 kg/s. Hidrogen ini dapat dikonversi menjadi ammonia sebanyak 0,012 kg/s dengan sisa hidrogen sebanyak 0,00089kg/s. Berdasarkan analisis energi, didapatkan efisiensi dari keseluruhan proses oil shale retorting hingga produksi ammonia adalah sebesar 55%.

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Oil shale is one of the non-conventional fuel in the form of fine rock sediments, which can be utilized as an alternative energy resource. In the retorting process, Oil Shale is converted into shale oil and shale gas. Previously, there were several studies that discussed the potential utilization of the shale gas product to produce hydrogen gas. In this study, a simulation was carried out using Aspen Plus to determine the potential of using both shale oil and shale gas products from the retorting process, to produce hydrogen using a chemical looping system. In addition, this study is aimed at analysing the energy efficiency of the system with the additional process of converting hydrogen into ammonia for storage. Based on the simulation results, the retorting product from 0,126 kg/s of oil shale, respectively 0,0063 kg/s and 0,024 kg/s of shale oil and shale gas, could produce 0,0031 kg/s of hydrogen. This amount of hydrogen could be converted into 0,012 kg/s of ammonia, with a remaining hydrogen product of 0,00089 kg/s. Based on the energy analysis, the efficiency of the entire system from the oil shale retorting process up to the ammonia production is 55%."

"Gas Serpih dianggap sebagai salah satu sumber energi yang paling menjanjikan untuk menopang kebutuhan energi dunia. Meskipun begitu, eksplorasi terhadap gas serpih di beberapa negara dinilai masih kurang bekembang dimana hasl ini disinyalir disebabkan karena kurangnya metode dan implementasi teknologi dibandingkan dengan eksplorasi hidrokarbon konvensional. Selain itu, teknologi, metode, dan data yang tersedia di berbagai perusahaan migas saat ini masih terkonsentrasi pada eksplorasi hidrokarbon konvensional. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengusulkan metode yang berbeda dalam eksplorasi gas serpih dengan memanfaatkan data eksplorasi hidrokarbon konvensional yang ada menggunakan pendekatan data science dan decision analysis. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah K-Mean Clustering untuk mengelompokkan batuan berdasarkan karakterisitik yang serupa (TOC, Porosity, Poisson Ratio dan Water Saturation) kemudian dilanjutkan dengan Multi Criteria Decision Analysis untuk menentukan cluster batuan terbaik untuk eksplorasi gas serpih. penelitian ini mengambil Formasi Serpih Banuwati di Cekungan Asri sebagai studi kasus yang dikenal sebagai salah satu batuan induk yang menjanjikan di Indonesia. Berdasarkan penelitian ini, batuan di daerah penelitian dapat diklasifikasikan menjadi tiga cluster. Cluster 1 ditetapkan sebagai “High Fractability Cluster”, Cluster 2 ditetapkan sebagai “Water Saturated Cluster” dan Cluster 3 ditetapkan sebagai “High Organic Content Cluster” berdasarkan sifat fisik dan kimianya. Sementara itu, Cluster 3 ditetapkan sebagai cluster terbaik dengan interval kedalaman 10212 ft – 10412 ft (3113 m – 3174 m) yang dinilai sebagai sweet spot untuk eksplorasi Shale Gas berdasarkan hasil Multi Criteria Decision Analysis style

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Shale gas has been regarded as one of the most promising energy sources to sustain the world’s energy demand. However, its exploration is still underdeveloped in several countries due to a lack of methods and technology implementation compared to conventional hydrocarbon exploration. In addition, the technology, methods, and data available in various oil and gas companies are currently still concentrated on conventional hydrocarbon exploration. The purpose of this study is to propose a new comprehensive method in shale gas exploration by utilizing the existing conventional hydrocarbon exploration data using data science and decision analysis approaches. The methods used in this study are K-Mean Clustering to cluster the similar rock characters (TOC, Porosity, Water Saturation, and Poisson Ratio) then continued by Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to determine the best rock cluster for shale gas exploration. The study takes Banuwati Shale Formation in Asri Basin as a case which is well known as one of the promising source rocks in Indonesia. Based on this study, the rocks in the study area can be classified into three clusters. Cluster 1 is determined as “High Fractability Cluster”, Cluster 2 is determined as “Water Saturated Cluster” and Cluster 3 is determined as “High Organic Content Cluster” based on its physical and chemical properties. Meanwhile, Cluster 3 is determined as the best cluster with 10212 ft – 10412 ft (3113 m – 3174 m) depth interval preferred as the sweet spot for Shale Gas exploration based on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis result."

"Penelitian ini melakukan identifikasi lapisan shale gas menggunakan Inversi Impedansi Akustik dan Dekomposisi Spektral. Penelitian dilakukan di Lapangan "AP", Cekungan Barito dan formasi target yaitu Formasi Tanjung. Nilai Total Organic Carbon (TOC) ditentukan dengan menggunakan Passey's Number dan data geokimia. Selanjutnya, zona shale gas ditentukan dengan mengorelasikan Log Gamma-ray dengan Log Densitas, Sonic, NPHI, dan Resistivitas pada dua sumur. Hasil korelasi menunjukkan terdapat zona shale gas pada masing-masing sumur, yaitu dikedalaman 7130-7370 ft (Sumur A-1) dan 3100-3280 ft (Sumur P-1). Zona shale gas Sumur A-1 dan Sumur P-1 memiliki TOC rata-rata 5.4 wt% dan 2.8 wt%. Hasil tersebut didukung oleh hasil inversi impedansi akustik (AI) yang menujukkan nilai impedansi rendah untuk zona shale gas antara 5000-8000 m/s*g/cc (Line A-1), dan 7200-8900 m/s*g/cc (Line P-1). Selain itu, hasil tersebut juga didukung oleh hasil dekomposisi spektral yang menunjukkan anomali Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) tinggi pada frekuensi 18 Hz (untuk Line A-1) dan 20 Hz (untuk Line P-1). Analisis terintegrasi antara data seismik, hasil inversi AI dan CWT menunjukkan terdapat daerah potensial shale gas pada punggungan antilkin di Line A-1 dan Line P-1.

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This study identify shale gas layer using acoustic impedance (AI) and spectral decomposition. The object of this study is Field ‘AP’, Barito Basin, and the formation target is Tanjung Formation. Total Organic Carbon (TOC) values was determined using Passey’s Number and geochemical data. Furthermore, shale gas zone was determined by correlating Gamma-ray log with Density, Sonic, NPHI and Resistivity log in two wells.

Correlation result showed there are a shale gas zone in each well, which is at 7130-7370 ft (Well A-1) and 3100-3280 ft (Well P-1). Shale gas zone Well A-1 and P-1 has average TOC of 5.4 wt% and 2.8 wt%. These results are supported by calculation of AI inversion, which showed a low impedance values for shale gas zone between 5000-8000 m/s*gr/cc (Line A-1) and 7200-8900 m/s*gr/cc (Line P-1).

Besides, spectral decomposition also showed high CWT anomaly at 18 Hz (Line A-1) and 20 Hz (Line P-1). Integrated analysis of seismic data, AI, and CWT indicates there are potentials area of shale gas on the anticline ridge on Line A-1 and Line P-1."

"A detailed combined geological and geophysical study in North Sumatra basin has shown that prospective formations for shale play containing gas sweet spots are found to be shales from Bampo, Belumai, and Baong Formations. Bampo Formations Exhibits low shale gas potential with very low to medium in organic material contents, maturity index of immature to mature, and moderate brittleness. Rocks within the formation tent to be reactive to highly reactive to water, with a moderate degree of swelling capacity. Porosity varies within 5.8-7.4% with permeability raging from 0.37 to 3.2 mD. Sweet spots in the formation found around Basilam-l and Securai-l wells occupy about 21% of the formation. On the other hand, Belumai Formation shows moderate to good shale gas potential, with low to high organic material contents, immature to mature levels of maturity, and moderately brittle to brittle. Sweet spots areas in the formation fpund around the two wells are about 29% of the formation. For Baong Formation, analysis reveals moderate to good shale gas potential, with low to medium contents of organic material, immature to mature in maturity index, moderately brittle to brittle in brittleness, and tendency of being reactive to highly reactive to water but with low degree of swelling capacity. Sweet spots in the formation found around two wells occupies are roughly 11% of the total formation volume in the area. Basin modeling leading to gas resources estimation for Baong, Belumai, and Bampo Formations has led to estimated volumes of 6, 379 TCF, 16, 994 TCF, and 25,024 TCF, respectively, with a total amount of 48, 397 TCF. The resources figures are speculative in nature and do not incorporate any certainty and efficiency factors."

"ABSTRAKIndonesia memiliki cadangan gas non konvensional berupa shale gas yangcukup besar yaitu sebesar 574 Tcf (hypothetical resources), yang belumdiexplorasi hingga saat ini. Potensi shale gas ini perlu untuk segera dimanfaatkanuntuk memenuhi kebutuhan gas dalam negeri yang diperkirakan akan meningkatdengan pesat di masa akan datang. Data-data biaya CAPEX dan OPEX akandiambil dari contoh pengembangan shale gas di Marcellus basin sebagaibenchmark. Profil produksi gas diestimasi dengan menggunakan modelpersamaan exponensial menurun.Dari hasil analisa keekonomian diketahui bahwa pengembangan shale gas diSumatera Selatan akan potensial menguntungkan secara komersial apabila salesgas dijual pada harga awal 10 USD/MMBTU, FTP (first trance petroleum)sebesar 0% dan profil produksi sedang atau tinggi. Sedangkan bila sales gas dijualdengan harga awal 6 USD/MMBTU akan kurang menguntungkan bahkan padaprofil produksi tinggi sekalipun. Hasil analisa sensitivitas menunjukkan bahwaperubahan besaran harga gas dan produksi gas memberikan pengaruh positifterhadap IRR dan BEP, sedangkan perubahan besaran CAPEX memberikanpengaruh sebaliknya. Perubahan besaran harga gas memberikan pengaruh yanglebih besar baik terhadap IRR maupun BEP dibandingkan perubahan produksigas. Pemberian insentif berupa penetapan FTP sebesar 0% (dibandingkan dengankondisi normal FTP sebesar 20%) memberikan pengaruh yang relatif kecilterhadap IRR dan BEP. Apabila gas dijual pada harga awal 10 USD/MMBTU danFTP sebesar 0%, maka pada recovery factor sebesar 10% dari potensi kandunganshale gas di Sumatera Selatan, dapat diperoleh potensi pemasukan buatpemerintah Indonesia sebesar 352 trilyun rupiah.

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ABSTRACTIndonesia has hypothetical resources of unconventional shale gas about 574tcf that has not been explored yet. The potential of shale gas resources should beutilized to fulfill the fast growing demand of natural gas expected in the future.CAPEX and OPEX cost will be adopted from example of shale gas developmentof Marcellus shale as a benchmark. Gas production profile will be estimated byusing declining exponential model of equation.The economic analysis result shows that shale gas development in SouthSumatera will be feasible if initial price of sales gas is 10 USD/MMBTU, FTP is0% and gas production profile is medium or high type. On the other hand if initialsales gas price is at 6 USD/MMBTU then it will not be feasible even at highproduction profile. Sensitivity analysis result shows that sales gas price andproduction profile will give positive impact to IRR and BEP. In contrary, CAPEXwill give negative impact. Sales gas price will give higher impact than gasproduction. Government incentive like FTP at 0% (instead of 20% at normalcondition) will give insignificant impact to IRR and BEP. In case sales gas is at 10USD/MMBTU and FTP at 0%, with recovery factor of 10% from hypotheticalshale gas resources in South Sumatera, it is estimated that the potential income toIndonesian Government is about 352 trillion rupiah."

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Analisis tekanan bawah permukaan dilakukan untuk mendeteksi adanya overpressure dan permasalahan pada sumur yang akan dilakukan pengeboran berdasarkan data sumur eksplorasi. Pada operasi pengeboran yang dilakukan pada sumur A, B, C, D ditemukan berbagai masalah pengeboran yaitu kick, sloughing shale, dan pipe sticking yang dapat mengakibatkan tingginya Non Productive Time (NPT). Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk: pertama mengidentifikasi mekanisme overpressure di Tight Sand Gas dan Shale Gas pada Sub-Cekungan Jambi. Kedua melakukan prediksi tekanan pori menggunakan metode Bowers dan metode Drilling Efficiency and Mechanical Specific Energy (DEMSE) dan selanjutnya  berdasarkan hasil analisis kuantitatif inversi seismik post-stack  dapat memodelkan tekanan pori di daerah tersebut. Hasil analisis tekanan pori di sumur dan model tekanan pori 3D mengindikasikan bahwa top overpressure terjadi pada Formasi Gumai, kemudian berangsur-angsur turun mendekati tekanan hidrostatik pada Basement. Mekanisme overpressure diakibatkan oleh undercompaction, fluid expansion (kerogen maturation). 4. Formasi Gumai dan formasi Talang Akar merupakan batuan shale sehingga jenis lumpur yang baik digunakan adalah oil based mud (OBM). Batuan shale memiliki sifat elasticity sehingga rate of penetration (ROP) dan weight on bit (WOB) yang digunakan semakin besar.

 

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The subsurface pressure analysis is used to detect the overpressure and problems in the well that will be drilled based on exploration well data. Various problems were found while drilling operations carried out on A,B,C,D wells, such as kick and pipe sticking which cause a high Non-Productive Time (NPT). This research is conducted to identify the mechanism of overpressure formation in tight sand gas and shale gas in the Jambi Sub-Basin. Furthermore, to predict pore pressure using the Drilling Efficiency and Mechanical Specific Energy (DEMSE) and Bowers methods. The final result will be a 3D pore pressure cube in the area based on quantitative analysis of post-stack seismic inversion. The results of the pore pressure analysis from the wells and the 3D pore pressure model indicate that top of overpressure occurs in the Gumai Formation, then it is decreasing gradually approaching the hydrostatic pressure on the Basement. The mechanisms of overpressure are caused by under compaction, fluid expansion (kerogen maturation). The Gumai Formation and Talang Akar Formation are shale rocks so the type of mud weight that is well used is oil based mud (OBM). Shale rocks have elasticity so that the rate of penetration (ROP) and weight on bit (WOB) that are used is getting bigger.

 

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