Despite of having second largest proven natural gas reserve in Asia Pacific Region after China, consumption of natural gas in Indonesia are keep increasing, while the production of natural gas in Indonesia are at declining rate. On the other hand, the government of Indonesia are planning to use natural gas as a tool to reduce the emission and transition of energy to renewable environmental friendly energy as a commitment to Paris Climate Agreement. However, Past literature focusing on forecast of natural gas production suggest that there will be decline after peak production of natural gas. The peak production of natural gas in Indonesia are expected to happen in 2018. The result of this study have conclude if it is not possible for the industry to fulfil the government utilization target of natural gas by 2025.
Sensitivitas merupakan efek perubahan dari setiap variabel yang merubah hasil resiko. Metodologi Risk Assessment yang paling umum digunakan di indonesia adalah Muhlbauer, Modified Muhlbauer dan Risk Based Inspection. Pada penelitian ini enam sample segmen jaringan pipa dievaluasi. Secara umum terdapat dua tujuan, yang pertama adalah membandingkan hasil resiko antara metodologi Risk Assessment. yang kedua adalah membandingkan sensitivitas. Metodologi Risk Assessment diterjemahkan kedalam persamaan model matematis dan dihitung dalam software berdasarkan simulasi Montecarlo. Hasil nilai resiko pada segmen high dan medium risk dinilai valid dengan rentang deviasi 24% dan 13%. Hasil analisis sensitivitas menunjukkan bahwa Metodologi Muhlbauer dan Modifikasi Muhlbauer sensitif terhadap kegiatan pihak ketiga. Risk Based Inspection sensitif terhadap damage mechanism intrinsik. Data sensitivitas ini dapat digunakan untuk menghasilkan Metodologi Risk Assessment Pipa Gas yang lebih sensitif dimasa yang akan datang.
Sensitivity is the effect of changes in any variables that changes the risk results. The most common Risk Assessment Methodology in Indonesia is Muhlbauer, Modified Muhlbauer & Risk Based Inspection. In this study, six natural gas distribution pipeline segment sample was evaluated. In general there are two objectives, firstly comparing the risk result between Risk Assessment Mehodology. Second objectives is to compare the sensitivity. The Risk Assessments methodology is translated into mathematic model and computed in Monte Carlo based simulation software. The risk value result show that in high risk & medium risk pipeline segment, all methodology is valid with 24% and 13% deviation respectively. The sensitivity analysis result show that Muhlbauer & Modified Muhlbauer methodology is sensitive to third party activity. Risk Based Inspection is sensitive to intrinsic damage mechanism. This sensitivity data can be adopted to develop more sensitive Gas Pipeline Risk Assessment Methodology in the future.
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