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"ABSTRAKIndonesia memiliki lebih dari 17 ribu pulau, dengan garis pantai lebih dari 54.000 km yang menjadikan Indonesia sebagai garis pantai terpanjang kedua di dunia setelah Kanada. Ironisnya, Indonesia belum dapat memenuhi kebutuhan garam nasional terkait kuantitas dan kualitas. Hingga saat ini, Indonesia masih mengandalkan garam impor untuk memenuhi kebutuhan nasional, terutama pada kebutuhan garam industri. Dalam penelitian ini, sebuah kajian dilakukan untuk menilai kesesuaian kebijakan yang ditetapkan oleh pemerintah mengenai produksi dan permintaan garam dengan menggunakan pendekatan Sistem Dinamika untuk memproyeksikan kebutuhan nasional baik garam konsumsi maupun garam industri untuk sepenuhnya dipenuhi oleh produksi lokal. Hasil analisis produksi garam dengan periode bulanan menunjukkan bahwa faktor cuaca secara dramatis masih mempengaruhi produksi garam nasional sehingga Indonesia masih kesulitan dalam memenuhi kebutuhan garam di musim hujan. Sementara hasil dari skenario menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia berhasil dalam swasembada garam konsumsi dan garam industri pada tahun 2028 dengan investasi teknologi untuk meningkatkan kualitas garam. Sementara skenario perluasan area tanaman menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia hanya dapat memenuhi kebutuhan garam industri non-CAP pada tahun 2021.

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ABSTRACT Indonesia has more than 17 thousand islands, with a coastline of more than 54,000 km which makes Indonesia the second longest coastline in the world after Canada. Ironically, Indonesia has not been able to meet the needs of national salt regarding quantity and quality. Until now, Indonesia still relies on imported salt to meet the national needs, especially on the needs of industrial salt. In this research, a study was conducted to assess the suitability of policies established by the government regarding production and demand of salt by using mathematical model and System Dynamics approach to project the national needs of both consumption salt and industrial salt to be entirely fulfilled by local production. The results of monthly production analysis indicate that the weather factor still dramatically influences the production of national salt so that Indonesia even difficulties in meeting the needs of salt in the rainy season. While the results of the scenarios showed that Indonesia succeeds in the self sufficiency of consumption and industrial salt in 2028 with technology investment to increase quality of salt. While the scenario of expanded plants area indicates that Indonesia can only meet the needs of non CAP industry salt in 2021."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis permintaan impor daging sapi di Indonesia sebelum dan sesudah adanya program swasembada daging sapi baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series periode tahun 1974 sampai dengan tahun 2013 dengan menggunakan pendekatan kointegrasi dan Error Correction Model Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek program swasembada daging sapi belum mampu mengurangi permintaan impor daging sapi Apabila terjadi perubahan pada variabel variabel yang mempengaruhi permintaan impor daging sapi jangka pendek maka akan membutuhkan waktu selama 3 37 bulan untuk menuju keseimbangan model permintaan impor daging sapi jangka panjang.

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This study aims to analyze the demand for beef imports in Indonesia before and after the beef self sufficiency program in both the short and long term This study uses time series data period 1974 to 2013 by using cointegration approach and error correction model The results showed that long term and short term self sufficiency in beef program has been unable to reduce the demand for imported beef If there is a change in the variables that affect the demand for imported beef short term it would take 3 37 months for the balance towards demand model for beef imports in long term"

"Gula merupakan komoditas pangan strategis yang ditargetkan mencapai swasembada pada 2019 meskipun terdapat banyak permasalahan pada industri gula nasional. Swasembada gula dapat terwujud apabila konsumsi gula dalam negeri dapat tercukupi dari produksi dalam negeri. Penelitian ini melakukan analisis faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap konsumsi maupun produksi gula dalam negeri menuju swasembada gula 2019. Hasil estimasi dengan sistem persamaan simultan menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi gula kristal putih dalam negeri secara positif dipengaruhi oleh konsumsi tahun sebelumnya sedangkan produksi gula kristal putih dalam negeri secara positif dipengaruhi oleh luas lahan tebu dan secara negatif dipengaruhi oleh harga gula nasional tahun sebelumnya. Pada komoditas gula rafinasi, hasil estimasi dengan regresi linier berganda menunjukkan bahwa produksi gula rafinasi secara positif dipengaruhi oleh volume impor gula mentah dan kapasitas produksi maksimal pabrik gula rafinasi serta secara negatif dipengaruhi oleh harga gula mentah internasional dan nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap US$. Hasil proyeksi menunjukkan bahwa target swasembada gula pada 2019 belum dapat terpenuhi. Meskipun demikian kebijakan peningkatan luas lahan, penetapan besaran HPP yang meningkat setiap tahunnya serta pengendalian harga gula perlu tetap dilakukan untuk meningkatkan produksi dan mengurangi impor.

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Sugar is a strategic food commodity which is targeted to reach self-sufficiency in 2019 although there are many problems in the Indonesian sugar industry. Sugar self-sufficiency can be realized if domestic sugar production is able to fulfill domestic sugar demand. This study analyzes the factors that influence consumption and production of Indonesian sugar and their implications for the 2019 sugar self-sufficiency target. For white sugar, the estimation using the simultaneous equation system resulted that domestic consumption for white sugar was positively affected by previous year's consumption and domestic production of white sugar was positively affected by sugarcane area and negatively affected by the national sugar price in the previous year. For refined sugar, the estimation using multiple linear regression showed that domestic production for refined sugar is positively affected by the maximum production capacity of refined sugar mills and volume of import raw sugar. Production of refined sugar mills negatively affected by the Rupiah/US$ exchange rate. The consumption for refined sugar is positively affected by the number of population. The projection shows that the sugar self-sufficiency target in 2019 has not been fulfilled. Nonetheless, the policy of increasing land area, determining the amount of HPP that increases every year and controlling the price of sugar need to be done to increase production and reduce imports."

"Perkembangan Perkeretaapian Indonesia yang mengacu kepada Rencana Induk Perkeretaapian Nasional (RIPNAS) di Indonesia sampai dengan tahun 2030 sudah menargetkan proporsi elektrifikasi sampai dengan 90%. Namun pada saat ini sebagian besar lokomotif masih berbasis bahan bakar solar (diesel). Dengan seiringnya dua tuntutan yaitu pengurangan ketergantungan akan bahan bakar fosil dan penurunan emisi CO2 < 2oC, maka diperlukan skenario perencanaan untuk penerapan bahan bakar yang ramah lingkungan dari sumber Energi Baru dan Terbarukan (EBT) menjadi faktor pendorong yang kuat. Penelitian ini berfokus pada proyeksi kebutuhan bahan bakar cakupan Jalur Kereta Api seluruh Indonesia menggunakan perangkat lunak LEAP dengan mensimulasikan beberapa skenario yaitu BaU, RIPNAS, Green Diesel, dan Hidrogen. Adapun hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan kebutuhan energi primer dari BaU, RIPNAS, Green Diesel dan Hidrogen berturut-turut yaitu sebesar 1,17, 405, 32, 405,2 dan 405,5 juta TOE pada tahun 2050, Sedangkan Bauran untuk energi fosil dan energi terbarukan yaitu pada Skenario Hidrogen yang memberikan prakiraan bauran EBT yang paling besar yaitu sebesar 97,47%. Kemudian prakiraan untuk emisi CO2 memberikan hasil yaitu Skenario RIPNAS 39,4 Juta Ton CO2 e pada tahun 2050, dan menurun menjadi 25,2 Juta Ton CO2e bila dibandingkan dengan Skenario Green Diesel dan Hidrogen. Penelitian ini memberikan gambaran kelayakan ekonomi yang memungkinkan hanya pada skenario RIPNAS dimana IRR, NPV dan PBP sebesar 15%, 1.049,42 triliun rupiah, dan 16,57 tahun. Diharapkan dengan beberapa hasil simulasi pada penelitian ini, kemajuan teknologi untuk mensubstitusi energi fosil dapat ditingkatkan sehingga layak secara ekonomi, operaional dan emisi CO2.

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The development of Indonesian railways referring to the National Railway Master Plan (RIPNAS) in Indonesia until 2030 has targeted the proportion of electrification up to 90%. But currently most locomotives are still based on diesel fuel. Along with two demands, namely reduced dependence on fossil fuels and reduction of CO2 < 2oC emissions, a planning scenario is required for the application of environmentally friendly fuels from Renewable Energy (EBT) sources that are strong driving factors. This research focuses on the projection of final fuel energy demands with railway coverage throughout Indonesia using LEAP software by using forecasting function for several scenarios. There are BaU, RIPNAS, Green Diesel, and Hydrogen scenarios. The results of this study showed the total final energy demands of BaU, RIPNAS, Green Diesel and Hydrogen respectively amounted to 1.214 million TOE, 406.050 million TOE, 405.782 million TOE and 406.128 million TOE by 2050, Then the forecast for CO2 emissions gave successive results for the BaU, RIPNAS, Green Diesel and Hydrogen scenarios were respectively 2.4 Million Tons of CO2e, 41.4 Million Tons of CO2e, 33.3 Million Tons of CO2e and 33.3 Million Tons of CO2e. This study provides an overview of economic feasibility that is possible only in RIPNAS scenario where IRR, NPV and PBP are 15%, 1,049.42 trillion Rupiah, and 16.57 years. It is expected that with some of the forecasts in this study, technological advances to substitute fossil energy can be improved so that it is economically viable, operational and has the potential to reduce CO2 emissions"

"[Target swasembada jagung di tahun 2016 perlu untuk dikaji ulang ketercapaiannya, karena target tersebut diiringi dengan beberapa kebijakan lainnya, seperti : penahanan stok di pelabuhan, pencabutan lisensi impor jagung oleh swasta, pemusatan manajemen stok jagung kepada Bulog. Apabila kebijakan-kebijakan tersebut tetap diimplementasikan di tengah kondisi pasar domestik yang kekurangan suplai, maka target swasembada jagung tahun 2016 akan menjadi malapetaka bagi para produsen pakan ternak yang memerlukan suplai jagung secara teratur. Studi ini ditujukan untuk meramal pencapaian target swasembada jagung di tahun 2016 dengan cara meramal produksi dan konsumsi pada tahun 2016 menggunakan beberapa alternatif metode : OLS, ARIMA, Time Trend Variable dan Recursive Model. Hasilnya, Indonesia akan mencapai swasembada jagung pada tahun 2016 dengan surplus sebesar 189.918 ton jagung pipilan kering dengan kadar air 25%. Namun mengingat kebutuhan industri pakan yang merupakan jagung pipilan kering dengan kadar air 15%, maka volume produksi yang menyusut akan membuat perhitungan di tahun 2016 malah menjadi defisit sebesar 2,51 juta ton. Apabila Indonesia ingin menutup defisit tersebut, diperlukan lahan jagung sebesar 4,3 juta hektar atau produktifitas lahan sebesar 63 kuintal per hektar.

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Corn self-sufficiency target in 2016 feasibility needs to be revisited because the program brings along several policies, such as : stock restricting at the ports, private’s import license abolishing and centering stock management to Bulog. Unless the domestic market being surplus, the policies implemented will cause a menace for livestock feed producers—for they need a regular corn supply. This study aims to forecast whether the target is going to be achieved by forecasting corn production and consumption in 2016 using several methods : OLS, ARIMA, Time Trend Variable and Recursive Model. The result shows that Indonesia is forecasted to achieve corn self-sufficiency by 2016; shown by a surplus of 189.918 tonne (with 25% moisture content). However, it is should be considered that feed-mill industry needs corn with 15% moisture content—and drying the corn shrinks its mass; leading to decrease of surplus and even change it into deficit of 2.51 million tonne. If Indonesia aims to self-suffice the deficit, then Indonesia needs 4.3 million hectares of corn land or land productivity of 6.3 tonne per hectare.

;Corn self-sufficiency target in 2016 feasibility needs to be revisited because the program brings along several policies, such as : stock restricting at the ports, private’s import license abolishing and centering stock management to Bulog. Unless the domestic market being surplus, the policies implemented will cause a menace for livestock feed producers—for they need a regular corn supply. This study aims to forecast whether the target is going to be achieved by forecasting corn production and consumption in 2016 using several methods : OLS, ARIMA, Time Trend Variable and Recursive Model. The result shows that Indonesia is forecasted to achieve corn self-sufficiency by 2016; shown by a surplus of 189.918 tonne (with 25% moisture content). However, it is should be considered that feed-mill industry needs corn with 15% moisture content—and drying the corn shrinks its mass; leading to decrease of surplus and even change it into deficit of 2.51 million tonne. If Indonesia aims to self-suffice the deficit, then Indonesia needs 4.3 million hectares of corn land or land productivity of 6.3 tonne per hectare.

;Corn self-sufficiency target in 2016 feasibility needs to be revisited because the program brings along several policies, such as : stock restricting at the ports, private’s import license abolishing and centering stock management to Bulog. Unless the domestic market being surplus, the policies implemented will cause a menace for livestock feed producers—for they need a regular corn supply. This study aims to forecast whether the target is going to be achieved by forecasting corn production and consumption in 2016 using several methods : OLS, ARIMA, Time Trend Variable and Recursive Model. The result shows that Indonesia is forecasted to achieve corn self-sufficiency by 2016; shown by a surplus of 189.918 tonne (with 25% moisture content). However, it is should be considered that feed-mill industry needs corn with 15% moisture content—and drying the corn shrinks its mass; leading to decrease of surplus and even change it into deficit of 2.51 million tonne. If Indonesia aims to self-suffice the deficit, then Indonesia needs 4.3 million hectares of corn land or land productivity of 6.3 tonne per hectare.

;Corn self-sufficiency target in 2016 feasibility needs to be revisited because the program brings along several policies, such as : stock restricting at the ports, private’s import license abolishing and centering stock management to Bulog. Unless the domestic market being surplus, the policies implemented will cause a menace for livestock feed producers—for they need a regular corn supply. This study aims to forecast whether the target is going to be achieved by forecasting corn production and consumption in 2016 using several methods : OLS, ARIMA, Time Trend Variable and Recursive Model. The result shows that Indonesia is forecasted to achieve corn self-sufficiency by 2016; shown by a surplus of 189.918 tonne (with 25% moisture content). However, it is should be considered that feed-mill industry needs corn with 15% moisture content—and drying the corn shrinks its mass; leading to decrease of surplus and even change it into deficit of 2.51 million tonne. If Indonesia aims to self-suffice the deficit, then Indonesia needs 4.3 million hectares of corn land or land productivity of 6.3 tonne per hectare.

, Corn self-sufficiency target in 2016 feasibility needs to be revisited because the program brings along several policies, such as : stock restricting at the ports, private’s import license abolishing and centering stock management to Bulog. Unless the domestic market being surplus, the policies implemented will cause a menace for livestock feed producers—for they need a regular corn supply. This study aims to forecast whether the target is going to be achieved by forecasting corn production and consumption in 2016 using several methods : OLS, ARIMA, Time Trend Variable and Recursive Model. The result shows that Indonesia is forecasted to achieve corn self-sufficiency by 2016; shown by a surplus of 189.918 tonne (with 25% moisture content). However, it is should be considered that feed-mill industry needs corn with 15% moisture content—and drying the corn shrinks its mass; leading to decrease of surplus and even change it into deficit of 2.51 million tonne. If Indonesia aims to self-suffice the deficit, then Indonesia needs 4.3 million hectares of corn land or land productivity of 6.3 tonne per hectare.

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"Pada 2014, Presiden Jokowi menargetkan swasembada kedelai akan terjadi pada tahun2018 sebagai upaya untuk mengurangi ketidakpastian dan kerentanan pada pasar kedelai. Melalui metode 2SLS dan ARIMA, studi ini ingin melihat pencapaian pemenuhan swasembada kedelai domestik pada 2018 beserta mengetahi faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi produksi dan konsumsi keselai dalam negeri. Haasilnya menunjukkan bahwa juatru produksi kedelai di Indonesia cenderung menurun sebesar 9% pada 2017 dan 4% pada 2018. Dengan peramalan jumlah konsumsi yang stagnan, maka rasio swasembada menurun menjadi 30% saja pada tahun 2018. Oleh karena target swasembada yang diprediksi tidak akan tercapai, peneliti ini juga menyuguhkan alternatif kebijakan seperti peningkatan luas area panen, meningkatkan harga impor kedelai, dan peningkatan harga produksi kedelai. Alternatif ini menghasilkan nilai prediksi yang positif untuk dapat menggenjot peningkatan jumlah produksi secara signifikan. Penelitian ini juga bersaha untuk mengkaji lagi program swasembada yang sebenarnya sudah pernah dicanangkan oleh pemerintah sebelumnya dan tidak pernah tercapai. Apabila Indonesia masih memaksa untuk dapt mencapai swasembada kedelai pada 2018 maka luas panen ataupun produktivitas harus ditingkatkan hingga dua kali lipat.

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This undergraduate thesis focuses on predict the achievement of soybean self sufficiency program in Indonesia at 2018. By the combined method, 2SLS and ARIMA, this study wants to look the achievement of the self sufficiency in Indonesia by counting the mass of domestic production and consumption. As the result shown, the mass of soybean domestic production decreased by 9 in 2017 and 4 in 2018 along with the decline in soybean price import. With the consumption result predictions that tends to shown stagnancy value, then the self sufficiency ratio decreases to only 0.3 in 2018. If Indonesia still wants to achieve this program, the writer suggest that the harvest area or the productivity should be doubled."

"[Presiden Joko Widodo menargetkan untuk mencapai ketahanan pangan di era kepemimpinannya. Salah satu cara untuk memenuhi target tersebut adalah dengan swasembada pangan untuk lima komoditas, yaitu beras, jagung, kedelai, daging, dan gula. Tiga diantaranya, yaitu beras, jagung dan kedelai, memiliki kemungkinan yang tinggi untuk tercapai. Sementara itu, swasembada daging kemungkinan besar tidak akan tercapai sesuai target. Di lain sisi, swasembada gula sulit untuk tercapai, akan tetapi tidak sepenuhnya mustahil untuk tercapai melihat kinerja Indonesia di zaman dahulu. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis kemungkinan swasembada gula di tahun 2017 menggunakan rencana realistis pemerintah. Dalam analisis ini, penulis mengestimasi produksi dan konsumsi gula di tahun 2017. Dua metode digunakan dalam penelitian ini, yaitu model stokastik untuk proyeksi produksi dan model deterministik untuk proyeksi konsumsi. Hasilnya kemudian ditampilkan dalam rasio produksi terhadap konsumsi. Hasil menunjukan bahwa, di tahun 2017, konsumsi gula langsung dapat mencapai tiga juta ton dan konsumsi gula tidak langsung dapat mencapai 3.5 juta ton. Secara total, konsumsi gula Indonesia mencapai 6.5 juta ton di tahun 2017. Di lain sisi,produksi gula Indonesia di tahun 2017 hanya mencapai sekitar 2.7 ton. Dari hasil perhitungan tersebut, dapat diketahui bahwa swasembada gula di tahun 2017 tidak akan tercapai, baik dari konsumsi gula langsung maupun konsumsi gula total. Dengan demikian, pemerintah perlu berusaha lebih keras agar rencana-rencana strategis yang sudah dibentuk dapat terlaksana dengan baik sehingga target dapat tercapai.

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President Joko Widodo aims to reach food security in its era. One of the mean to reach the target is by achieving self sufficiency in 5 commodities rice corn soybean meat and sugar. Three of them rice corn and soybean is likely to be achieved meanwhile meat will be unlikely to be achieved. Sugar is hard to be achieved yet it is not impossible seeing the track record of Indonesia. This research is aimed to see the possibility of sugar self sufficiency in 2017 based on the government 39's realistic planning. To analyze writer estimates production and consumption of sugar in 2017 Two methods are employed 1 stochastic model for production projection and 2 deterministic model for consumption projection. The result is then presented using production to consumption ratio The result shows that in 2017 the direct sugar consumption may reach 3 million ton and the indirect sugar consumption may reach 3 5 million ton totaling to 6,5 million ton. In other side the production may only reach 2,7 million ton Based on the calculation it is found that Indonesia may not reach sugar self sufficiency both in only direct sugar consumption and total sugar consumption. Given this government needs to take extra action so that the target may be achieved., President Joko Widodo aims to reach food security in its era One of the mean to reach the target is by achieving self sufficiency in 5 commodities rice corn soybean meat and sugar Three of them rice corn and soybean is likely to be achieved meanwhile meat will be unlikely to be achieved Sugar is hard to be achieved yet it is not impossible seeing the track record of Indonesia This research is aimed to see the possibility of sugar self sufficiency in 2017 based on the government 39 s realistic planning To analyze writer estimates production and consumption of sugar in 2017 Two methods are employed 1 stochastic model for production projection and 2 deterministic model for consumption projection The result is then presented using production to consumption ratio The result shows that in 2017 the direct sugar consumption may reach 3 million ton and the indirect sugar consumption may reach 3 5 million ton totaling to 6 5 million ton In other side the production may only reach 2 7 million ton Based on the calculation it is found that Indonesia may not reach sugar self sufficiency both in only direct sugar consumption and total sugar consumption Given this government needs to take extra action so that the target may be achieved ]"

"Penelitian ini dilatarbelakangi oleh cita-cita Indonesia dalam mewujudkan swasembada daging sapi telah dimulai sejak tahun 2000. Indonesia secara berturut-turut mencanangkan program swasembada daging sapi ke dalam tiga periode: 2000-2005; 2005-2010; 2010-2014. Namun, di penghujung tahun 2014, pencapaian swasembada daging sapi di Indonesia dinyatakan belum tercapai. Maka, penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui faktor internal dan eksternal yang menyebabkan kegagalan program swasembada sapi pada periode tahun 2010-2014.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memahami praktik dan dinamika perdagangan internasional komoditas pangan strategis, serta gesekannya terhadap kepentingan nasional. Penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa dalam dinamika ekonomi politik internasional, upaya swasembada pangan yang dilihat dari perspektif nasionalisme ekonomi berada dalam kepungan liberalisasi perdagangan internasional. Oleh karena itu, dibutuhkan integritas dari semua pihak yang berkepentingan agar suatu negara dapat mencapai swasembada pangan.

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The background of this research is Indonesia's attempt to achieve beef self-sufficiency that has been started since 2000. Indonesia has launched beef self-sufficiency programs consecutively into three periods: 2000-2005; 2005-2010; 2010-2014. However, in the end of 2014, Indonesia still has not reached its target. Thus, this study is conducted to determine the internal and external factors that cause the failure in beef self-sufficiency program in the period 2010-2014.

This research aims to understand the practices and the dynamics of strategic food commodities international trade, as well as its friction against the national interest. The results of this research revealed that in the dynamics of the international political economy, the efforts to achieve food self-sufficiency, which are viewed from the economic nationalism perspective, were surrounded by the liberalization of international trade. Therefore, it takes the integrity of all the stakeholders so that a nation can achieve food self-sufficiency."

"Pemenuhan garam industri nasional bersinggungan dengan garam konsumsi karena pengadaannya melibatkan pasokan dari garam impor dan lokal sekaligus. Dalam rantai nilai garam industri ini para aktor dalam berbagai kepentingan saling terkait dalam pola interaksi dan hubungan tertentu. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis aktor-aktor yang terlibat dan keterhubungan mereka dalam fungsi dan aliran rantai nilai garam industri, menganalisis tata kelola yang membentuk pola hubungan antar aktor tersebut, dan memformulasikan strategi perbaikannya. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan post-positivisme dengan pengumpulan data primer dan sekunder, melalui wawancara, studi dokumentasi, dan observasi lapang. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian diperoleh bahwa aktor utama yang terlibat dalam rantai nilai utama garam industri adalah petambak garam lokal (produksi), pengumpul/pedagang (penyimpanan dan pengangkutan), perusahaan pengolah garam (pengolahan), dan perusahaan pengguna garam (konsumsi industrial). Tipe tata kelola yang terjadi antara perusahaan pengguna dan pengolah garam adalah modular, antara perusahaan pengolah dan pedagang/pengumpul relasional, antara pedagang/pengumpul dan petambak captive. Selain itu, terjadi pula tipe tata kelola hierarki pada bentuk usaha garam integratif yang dijalankan oleh PT Garam (dan sebagian perusahaan swasta sejenis), dan tipe pasar pada hubungan antara pengguna atau pengolah garam dengan pemasok garam asal impor. Dalam pola rantai nilai tersebut, petambak berada pada posisi yang semakin lemah akibat ekses sentimen dari pasokan garam impor. Perbaikan tata kelola rantai nilai garam industri diarahkan dengan pengarusutamaan hubungan langsung antara petambak garam dan perusahaan pengolah dalam tipe modular melalui penguatan institusi petambak dan reorientasi bisnis PT Garam untuk pasar garam industri.

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The fulfillment of national industrial salt intersects with consumption salt because it involves supplies of both imported and local salt. In the industrial salt value chain, actors in various interests are interrelated in certain patterns of interaction and relationships. This study aims to analyze the actors involved and their interrelationships in the functions and flows of the industrial salt value chain, analyze the governance that shapes the pattern of relations between these actors, and formulate improvement strategies. This study uses a post-positivistic approach through primary and secondary data collection, with interviews, documentation studies, and field observations. Based on the research results, it was found that the main actors involved in the main value chain of industrial salt are local salt farmers (production), collectors/traders (storage and transportation), salt processing companies (processing), and salt user companies (industrial consumption). The type of governance that occurs between user companies and salt processors is modular, between processing companies and traders/collectors is relational, between traders/collectors and farmers is captive. In addition, there is also a type of hierarchical governance in the form of an integrative salt business run by PT Garam (and several similar private companies), and a market type in the relationship between salt users or processors and suppliers of imported salt. In this value chain pattern, salt farmers are in an increasingly weak position due to excess sentiment from imported salt supplies. Improving the governance of the value chain governance was formulated by mainstreaming a direct relationship between salt farmers and processing companies in a modular type through strengthening farmer institutions and reorienting PT Garam's business to the certain industrial salt market."

"ABSTRAKKebutuhan garam industri di Indonesia sebagai pemenuhan bahan baku untuk sektor ndash;sektor industri seperti garmen, baja, farmasi, kosmetik, dan sebagainya pada tahun 2018 mengalami kekurangan supply. Untuk itu pembangunan pabrik garam industri dapat dijadikan suatu upaya dalam menangkap opportunity di industri garam. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis industri garam di Indonesia dari perspektif kelayakan pembangunan pabrik garam. Perhitungan yang dipergunakan menggunakan metode capital budgeting yang disertai oleh analisis sensitivitas dan analisis menggunakan simulasi Monte Carlo. Pabrik rencananya akan dibangun di kota Sampang di lahan seluas 45.000 m2 dan memiliki kapasitas produksi 20.000 ton per tahun. Pabrik beroperasi secara kontinu selama 21 jam/hari dan 313 hari/tahun. Harga jual yang direncanakan sebesar Rp5.700 per kg dengan harga bahan baku garam rakyat sebesar Rp1.250 per kg. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa pembangunan tersebut layak untuk dilaksanakan karena memiliki NPV > 0 dan IRR > WACC. Analisis sensitivitas terhadap asumsi-asumsi menunjukkan bahwa variabel yang paling berpengaruh adalah mesin dan peralatan, operating expense, harga jual, kenaikan harga mesin dan peralatan, dan harga bahan baku. Analisis menggunakan simulasi Monte Carlo menunjukkan bahwa pembangunan pabrik garam industri memiliki probabilitas memperoleh NPV positif adalah sekitar 72 dan memperoleh NPV negatif adalah sekitar 28.

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ABSTRACT The need for industrial salt in Indonesia as the raw materials for industrial sectors such as garment, steel, pharmaceutical, cosmetics, etc. in 2018 experienced a shortage. For that industrial salt plant construction can be a step in capturing opportunity in salt industry. This study aims to analyze the salt industry in Indonesia from the perspective of feasibility of salt factory construction. The calculation used is capital budgeting method accompanied by sensitivity analysis and sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo method. The salt factory is planned to be built in the city of Sampang in an area of 45.000 m2 and has a production capacity of 20.000 tons per year. The plant operates continuously for 21 hours day and 313 days year. The planned selling price is Rp5.700 per kg and the price of raw materials from people salt is Rp1.250 per kg. The results of this study indicate that the development is feasible to be implemented because it has NPV 0 and IRR WACC. Sensitivity analysis of assumptions shows that the most influential variables are machinery and equipment, operating expense, selling price, increase in machine and equipment prices, and raw material prices. The analysis using Monte Carlo simulation shows that the investment of an industrial salt plant has a probability of obtaining a positive NPV is about 72 and a negative NPV is about 28 ."