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"ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganilisis dampak asimetris perubahan harga minyak terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi di Indonesia menggunakan model vector autoregression (VAR) untuk periode dari tahun 1990 kuartal I sampai dengan tahun 2016 kuartal IV. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pengaruh perubahan harga minyak terhadap produk domestik bruot (PDB) adalah asimetris, yaitu penurunan harga minyak secara signifikan menurunkan PDB, sedangkan kenaikan harga minyak tidak secara signifikan mempengaruhi PDB. Upaya untuk menurunkan ketergantungan terhadap minyak dibutuhkan oleh Indonesia, khususnya penurunan kontribusi minyak sebagai sumber pendapatan negara, serta dengan meningkatkan penggunaan energi terbarukan. Sementara itu, perubahan harga minyak, baik penurunan maupun kenaikan harga minyak, tidak mempengaruhi inflasi secara signifikan. Tidak terdapatnya pengaruh perubahan harga minyak terhadap inflasi disebabkan oleh adanya kebijakan subsidi bahan bakar minyak di Indonesia."

"ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak asimetris perubahan harga minyak terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi di Indonesia dengan menggunakan model vector autoregression VAR dalam periode dari tahun 1990 kuartal I sampai dengan tahun 2016 kuartal IV. Hasil penelitian menunujukkan bahwa pengaruh perubahan harga minyak terhadap produk domestik bruto PDB adalah asimetris, yaitu penurunan harga minyak secara signifikan menurunkan PDB, sedangkan kenaikan harga minyak tidak secara signifikan mempengaruhi PDB. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa PDB Indonesia lebih sensitif terhadap penurunan harga minyak dibandingkan dengan kenaikan harga minyak. Oleh karena itu, upaya untuk menurunkan ketergantungan terhadap minyak dibutuhkan oleh Indonesia, khususnya penurunan kontribusi minyak sebagai sumber pendapatan negara dan sebagai sumber energi, dengan meningkatkan penggunaan energi terbarukan. Sementara itu, perubahan harga minyak, baik penurunan maupun kenaikan harga minyak, tidak mempengaruhi inflasi secara signifikan. Tidak terdapatnya pengaruh perubahan harga minyak terhadap inflasi adalah disebabkan oleh adanya penerapan kebijakan subsidi bahan bakar minyak di Indonesia.

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ABSTRACTThis paper analyzes the asymmetric impact of oil price changes on the economic growth of and inflation in Indonesia by using the vector autoregression VAR model for the period from 1990Q1 to 2016Q4. The results show that the impact of oil price changes on the gross domestic product GDP is asymmetric, as a drop in oil prices decreases the GDP, whereas an increase in oil prices does not significantly affect GDP. This suggests that Indonesia rsquo s GDP is more vulnerable to the downward changes in oil prices than upward changes. It is important for Indonesia to reduce its dependency on oil, particularly as its major source of revenue, and also consider utilizing more sources of renewable energy. At the same time, the effects of both the positive and negative changes in oil prices are found to be not statistically significant to inflation. The lack of impact of oil price changes on inflation can be explained by the implementation of the fuel price subsidy in Indonesia."

"AbstractIndonesia Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA) is the first bilateral economic agreement for Indonesia. IJEPA is expected to increase Indonesia manufacture industry competition because the establishment of USDFS and MIDEC. Post IJEPA, Price-cost margins (PCM) fluctuated. PCM has been generally used as a competition indicator, because PCM related to average profit of an industry. This study uses panel data of large and small industry within 2004-2012 periods. This study conclude that IJEPA able to make PCM of manufacture industry fall through efficiency of input factors use, the cost of materials price downfall, and economies of scale in certain industries.AbstrakIndonesia Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA) merupakan perjanjian kerja sama ekonomi bilateral yang pertama untuk Indonesia. IJEPA diharapkan mampu meningkatkan kompetisi industri manufaktur karena disepakatinya fasilitas khusus untuk peningkatan kapasitas dan daya saing industri manufaktur, yaitu USDFS dan MIDEC. Setelah IJEPA, Price-cost Margins (PCM) Indonesia berfluktuasi. PCM digunakan sebagai indikator persaingan, dikarenakan berhubungan dengan keuntungan rata-rata di sebuah industri. Studi ini menggunakan data panel industri besar dan sedang periode 2004-2012. Dari studi ini disimpulkan bahwa IJEPA mampu menurunkan PCM industri manufaktur Indonesia dengan efisiensi faktor input produksi, penurunan biaya bahan baku industri, dan pencapaian skala ekonomi pada industri tertentu."

"The main idea of this study is to determine the impact of relative inflation on poverty incidents and to investigate whether inflation inequality has occurred in Indonesia. Interesting results were found at regional level. Firstly, Jakarta had different poverty response with respect to price increases. Processed food and transportation inflation were more imperative for the poor in Jakarta. Secondly, the poor in province with low poverty figures were more prone to inflation. In general, the results show that food inflation has the major adverse impact on the poor. Moreover, we found that inflation in Indonesia has not been pro-poor.

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Tujuan utama dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menentukan dampak dari perubahan harga terhadap kemiskinan, serta juga untuk mengetahui apakah terjadi ketimpangan inflasi di Indonesia. Hasil yang menarik diperoleh dari analisa pada tingkat provinsi. Pertama, kemiskinan pada provinsi Jakarta memiliki karakteristik yang berbeda. Inflasi pada makanan jadi dan transportasi justru memiliki dampak yang lebih merugikan masyarakat miskin. Kedua, masyarakat miskin yang berada di provinsi dengan tingkat kemiskinan relatif rendah justru lebih sensitif terhadap inflasi. Secara umum, inflasi bahan makanan merupakan faktor terbesar dalam peningkatan kemiskinan. Selain itu, masyarakat miskin telah mengalami total inflasi yang lebih besar dibandingkan dengan masyarakat tidak miskin."

"Traffic accident ranks the ninth largest of the cause of death in Indonesia. The most of researches studying Indonesia on traffic accidents were only blaming on human, motor vehicles, and environment as main culprits, not incorporating economic factors into the models. This study aims to analyze the impact of real gasoline prices on trac accident in Indonesia and the factors of influence them. This research employs time series data from 1970 to 2013 with OLS analysis world crude oil prices as instrument variable. The estimator results show that real price of gasoline and the policy of usage of motorcycle light insignificant on traffic accident. Meanwhile, real GDP and asphalt roads significantly decrease the traffic accident. However, motorcycles significantly increase the traffic accident.

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Kecelakaan lalu lintas menempati urutan kesembilan penyebab kematian di Indonesia. Kebanyakan penelitian kecelakaan di Indoneia menitikberatkan pada faktor manusia, kendaraan, dan lingkungan, tetapi belum ada yang memasukkan faktor-faktor ekonomi ke dalam modelnya. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah ingin mengetahui pengaruh harga riil bensin terhadap kecelakaan lalu lintas di Indonesia serta faktor-faktor yang memengaruhinya. Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series Indonesia dari tahun 1970 hingga 2013 dan menggunakan OLS dengan variabel instrumen harga minyak mentah dunia. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa harga riil bensin dan kebijakan penggunaan lampu utama sepeda motor tidak signifikan terhadap kecelakaan lalu lintas. Sedangkan PDB riil dan jalan aspal signifikan berpengaruh menurunkan kecelakaan. Namun, sepeda motor berdampak signifikan meningkatkan kecelakaan lalu lintas."

"Booming and prosperity. Joyful expectation of the future. And, suddenly, a crash, a dramatic crash. All were lost in such a short time. They were so unprepared for this event. Then, those who had used to talk about poverty, but did not really experience the poverty itself, were forced to get the feeling of much relative deprivation. They had not fallen to under poverty line, and, indeed, they might be still in a much higher economic situation than the poverty line; but their prospect had been very bleak. It was like the feeling of riding a roller coaster, but without knowing the end of the fast descending journey. They were, to mention a few, the academicians, politicians, bureaucrats, business people, people in NGOs and joui nalists. They had the political power, and some were involved in decision making to help the "poor" people."

"ABSTRAKThis paper analyzes the change in distance elasticity of trade using bilateral trade data among China and Indonesia and their main trading partners. The empirical method used in this study derived from the gravity model that considers the effect of distance on trade activities behavior. Two causes of change in the elasticity of trade to distance will be exposed, i.e., the distance sensitivity effect (within industries) and the compositional effect (among industries). Specifically, this study would like to prove whether the distance sensitivity effect is more dominant than the compositional effect in explaining the change in distance elasticity of trade. By using four sub-periods and around two hundred industries involved, the result shows that the increase in the role of distance in trade heavily caused by the escalation of distance sensitivity effect in most industries."

"Indonesia is a diverse country with uneven resource endowment across its provinces. This study examines the effects of human capital investment policies on the promotion of more equitable income growth across provinces. First, the rate of return to education is estimated for each province using the 1976 and 1989 Indonesian National Labor Force Surveys (SAKERNAS). Then, regional economic indicators are used to explain differences in the rates of return to education among provinces and to develop and test hypotheses regarding the contribution of investment in education to personal income growth in different regions in Indonesia.The study finds large differences in the rates of return to education among provinces with the highest rates of return in the poorest provinces. A model of segmented regional labor markets is advanced to explain why wage differences across provinces may exist. The estimates suggest that labor market segmentation was more pronounced for un- or low-educated workers because inter-provincial differences in wages were greater among this group than among more educated workers. Education may reduce regional labor market segmentation. More educated workers may be better able to compete for jobs in other provinces, and therefore more mobile, because they possess the needed language and market skills.Thus, it appears that education not only enhances personal (and national) income, but also promotes greater equity across provinces. Equitable investment in education across provinces is compatible with both equity and efficiency goals in regional economic development."