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"This economic and political science work is a rigorous analysis that demonstrates that although it is a privilege and a benefit for the US to have its currency, the dollar, as the leading world reserve currency, the privilege also proves to be a very significant economic and security burden imposed on the nation. "

"ABSTRAKSkripsi ini membahas tentang korelasi antara twin deficits, yang terdiri dari defisit neraca berjalan dan defisit anggaran pemerintah, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di 49 negara berkembang dan negara maju yang menggunakan analisis cross-sectional untuk periode sebelum dan sesudah krisis finansial Asia dan sebelum dan sesudah krisis finansial global. Terdapat perubahan dalam hasil analisis pada periode sebelum dan sesudah krisis finansial Asia. Defisit anggaran pemerintah memiliki korelasi negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, sementara defisit neraca berjalan tidak memiliki korelasi yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pada periode krisis finansial global, defisit neraca berjalan memiliki korelasi positif dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan tidak terdapat korelasi antara defisit anggaran pemerintah dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi.

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ABSTRACT This paper investigates the correlation between the twin deficits, namely current account and government budget deficits, and economic growth in 49 developing and developed countries using cross sectional analysis for the period before and after Asian financial crisis and before and after global financial crisis. There is a change in the results on before and after the Asian financial crisis. Government budget deficit is associated negatively with economic growth, while current account deficit does not significantly correlate with economic growth. For the global financial crisis period, the current account deficit correlates positively with economic growth, while government budget deficit does not correlate with economic growth."

"The role of taxpayers permitted to maintain their book keeping in US $ currency to government's revenue are increasing therefore such discriminatory policy needs a serious study to ensure the fairness and certainty in implementation. Minister of Finance Decree Number 533 Year 2000 specifying five types of business which are allowed to maintain the book keeping in US $ without a criterion as standardized in financial accounting standard (FAS), as a result arising issue in the effort of taxing foreign exchange difference. Accounting standard sees the non functional currency as a foreign currency. All monetary items and all transactions are denominated in foreign currency generate the foreign exchange difference. Prevailing implementation rules designed to rule the Rupiah book keeping which will become inequitable judicially if applied to the US $ books taxpayer. This thesis is addressed to analyze the foreign exchange difference treatment to the company permitted to maintain their bookkeeping in US $, base on license's granting criteria, exchange rate and foreign exchange rate difference, foreign exchange treatment in prevailing regulations, exchange rates and financial report items translation, and the improvement proposal to make the foreign exchange taxing will be in line with the basic law principles.

US $ bookkeeping is designed to respond the globalization demand and to provide the conducive climate of investments. Accountancy is an element of tax administration in providing information about tax object. Accounting information is expressed in monetary unit is so-called as an accounting currency. Accounting currency is functional currency, currency considered as non-functional be foreign currency. Exchange rates fluctuation is generating foreign exchange difference. Restatement of foreign currencies balance and transactions denominated in foreign currency within two different points of time will generate foreign exchange losses/gains which ultimately affecting the tax liability. S-H-S income concept assumes the foreign exchange rate difference as a part of capital gains or capital losses, which should be taxed or deducted at the realization date.

Type of research for this thesis has the character of analytical-descriptive. Data collecting conducted with research of documents and research of field. Research of documents conducted with research of bibliography and research of field. Research of bibliography cover research of literatures, expert's opinions, relevant taxation rules and financial data of PT X. Field research conducted by holding an interview with interested parties to the foreign exchange difference taxation case which studied-in is PT X case as according to Code of Foreign Capital.

The principle of book keeping rule in the law of General Provision and Taxation Procedure (referred as "KUP Law") mention that unless otherwise stipulated by tax laws, the book keeping must be executed by means or systems normally uses in Indonesia, like on the basis of Financial Accountancy Standards (FAS). The KUP Law gives authority to Minister of Finance to define the taxpayer which may allow to maintain book keeping in US $ without accompanied by criterion, therefore MOF has his own discretion to issue further book keeping rules which might possibly oppose the basic principles of basic rules. Every transaction carries out in the non US S currency will yield the foreign exchange difference. A foreign exchange gain is subject to tax and a foreign exchange loss will be deductible from the gross income. Prevailing implementation rules related to the foreign exchange difference do not itemize particular financial report post able to be translated by historical exchange rate and balance, which translated with current exchange rate. The tax authority's treatment and tax court's decision on the PT X case was derived from Gunadi's opinion in his book that there is no foreign exchange loss from the tax payables or receivables accounts since the taxes receivables/ payables account should be translated by historical exchange rate. From accounting point of view, the Gunadi's method of translation is a temporal method with dual transactions perspective which nor FAS neither prevailing tax laws does not adopted. FAS adopts the monetary and non monetary translation method as an accepted standard to report all foreign currency transactions.

It is recommended that the licensed taxpayer to apply the US $ book keeping has to rely on certain criteria in line with the other article within the same provision. The implementation provisions of forcij exchange difference need to update by inserting the detail of foreign exchange loss derived from which items allow as deduction and the detail of foreign exchange gain derived from which items treats as the income tax object."

"Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisi hubungan jangka panjang credit default swap, US Treasury Bond, Kurs, dan IHSG terhadap yield obligasi negara denominasi USD. Penelitian dengan metode Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) menggunakan data harian yang terdiri dari yield Obligasi Negara denominasi USD, credit default swap 10tahun, nilai tukar, IHSG, dan tingkat bunga internasional periode bulan Januari 2015 sampai dengan Desember 2018. Metode yang digunakan adalah metode Vector Error Correction Model. Penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa untuk hubungan kointegrasi Periode Penuh antara tahun 2015-2018, output Johansen Cointegration menunjukan ada regresi kointegrasi semua variabel dalam jangka panjang. Berdasarkan olah data menggunakan granger causality, UST dan CDS memiliki hubungan satu arah terhadap IGB, IGB terhadap IDR serta CDS terhadap IHSG. Untuk hubungan kointegrasi antara tahun 2015-2016, output Johansen Cointegration Test menunjukan ada regresi kointegrasi variabel CDS, IDR dan IHSG pada Yield Obligasi Denominasi USD dalam jangka panjang. Berdasarkan olah data menggunakan granger causality, UST dan CDS memiliki hubungan satu arah terhadap IGB, serta CDS terhadap IHSG.

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This study analyses the long term relationship of credit default swap, us treasury bonds (ust), exchange rate, and composite stock price index variable to yield of the indonesia global bond in us dollar. It applies Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) using daily data consist of yield of the indonesia global bond in us dollar, credit default swap, us treasury bonds (ust), exchange rate, and composite stock price index in the period of January 2015 to December 2018. And uses method of Vector Error Correction Model. This study shows that for a cointegration relationship full period between years 2015-2018, output Johansen Cointegration regression showed cointegration means all variables move together in the long run. Based on the data if using granger causality, the relationship between UST and CDS to IGB has a 1-way relationship, include IGB to IDR, CDS to IHSG. For cointegration relationship sub period between years 2015-2016, output Johansen Cointegration regression showed cointegration in CDS, IDR and IHSG to IGB, means they move together in the long run. Based on the data if using granger causality, the relationship between UST and CDS to IGB has a 1-way relationship, include CDS to IHSG."

"ABSTRAKPertukaran mata uang dan pergerakan nilai tukar mata uang asing, khususnya US Dollar,sangat mempengaruhi hampir semua sisi kegiatan bisnis. Sehingga sangat penting bagi pelakubisnis untuk melakukan analisa dan proyeksi atas pergerakan nilai tukar dalam setiap perencanaandan pengambilan keputusan bisnis. Analisis pergerakan nilai tukar dilakukan dengan menganalisa pola pergerakan nilai tukardan volatilitasnya dan hubungan nilai tukar dengan variabel ekonomi domestik dan suku bunga USDollar di pasar uang internasional. Sebagai alat analisa digunakan model ekonometrik seperti:Regresi, ARIMA dan ARCH dan GARCH. Periode waktu yang dianalisa dalam karya akhir ¡niadalah Januari 1994 ? Desember 1999, khusus untuk data mingguan adalah Minggu ke-1 Januari1996 hingga Minggu ke-4 Desember 1999. Dalam analisa pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap US Dollar ditemukan adanyaperubahan struktur (structure break) sejak Agustus 1997, saat Bank Indonesia mencabut bandintervensi, karena fluktuasi gerakan nilai tukar yang sangat tinggi dibandingkan gerakan normalsebelumnya. Volatilitas yang tinggi terlihat terutama pada gerakan mingguan sehingga harusdigunakan model ARCH dan GARCH untuk mengakomodasi volatilitas tersebut. Volatilitas yangtinggi ini menunjukkan tingginya resiko dalam transaksi pertukaran rupiah dan US Dollar. Analisaatas model ARIMA dan ARCH dan GARCH menunjukkan bahwa suatu model peramalan yanghandal tidak dapat dicapai dengan hanya menggunakan variabel nilai tukar ¡tu sendiri saja,dibutuhkan variabel lain sebagai regressor. Berdasarkan kajian teori diidentifikasi empat variabel ekonomi yang mempengaruhiperubahan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap US Dollar: Perubahan jumlah uang beredar, inflasi, sukubunga dan neraca pembayaran. Perubahan jumlah uang beredar merupakan variabel ekonomi yangmemiliki korelasi paling besar dengan perubahan nilni tukar. Sebagai mata uang lunak (softCurrencies), setiap penambahan jumlah rupiah yang beredar hamp?r seluruhnya akarm diserap olchperekonomian dalam negeri, karena Rupiah bukan rnerupakan cadangan internasional(international reserves) bagi negara lain. Oleh karena itu setiap penambahan jurnlab rupiab yangheredar, yang berarti peningkatan penawaran rupiah, akan langsung mendororig melemahnya nilaitukar rupiah. Perubahan jumlah uang beredar sebagai variabel bebas dapat menjelaskan lebih dari85 persen variasi perubahan nilai tukar bulanan sehingga bandai untuk dipakai sebagai modelperarnalari perubahan nilai tukar bulanan. Analisis regresi menunjukkan tidak ada korelasi yang cukup besar antara inflasi danperubahan niiai tukar pada bulan yang sama. Gerakan inflasi justru lebih cenderung mengikutigerakan perubahan nilai tukar bulan sebelumnya. Dalam hal ini inflasi terjadì karena meiemahnyanilai tukar rupiah yang menyebabkan meningkatnya semua unsur biaya dalam mata uang asingsehingga inendorong terjadinya inflasi di balan berikutnya. Dalam jangka waktu yang lebihpanjang, triwulanan, terdapat korelasi yang cukup kuat antara inflasi dan perubahan nilai tukar,Sementara suku bunga dan neraca pembayaran tidak memiliki korelasi yang cukup kuat denganperubahan nilai tukar rupiah. Model peramalan perubahan nilai tukar triwulanan yang signifikandan handal didapat dengan menggabungkan tiga variabel bebas: Perubahan jumlah uang beredar,inflasi dan neraca pembayaran. Nilai tukar rupiah juga akan dipengaruhi oleh perbandingan antara tingkat pengembalian(rate of return) rupiah dengan tingkat pengembalian US Dollar. Sebelum Juli 1997 pada saat faktorresiko memegang rupiah belum menjadi sangat tinggi, selisih suku bunga rupiah dan US Dollarmendekati perubahan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap US Dollar sebagaimana yang dinyatakan dalamteori International Fisher Effect (IFE). Namun sejak akhir 1997, tingginya voiatilitas nilai tukardan krisis ekonomi dan politik yang berkepanjangan telah meningkatkan resiko memegang rupiahmenjadi sangat tinggi. Tingginya resiko ini menyebabkan selisih suku bunga tidak mampu lagimendekati perubahan nilai tukar, perbedaan selisih suku bunga dan perubahan nilai tukar menjadisangat besar. Sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa IFE dapat dipakai sebagai alat peramalan nilaitukar jika faktor resiko dan kondisi ekonomi dan politik normal, namun jika resiko menjadi sangattinggi maka IFE tidak dapat dipakal sebagai alat peramalan."

"Drawing on a mix of economic history, network science, and sociology, "Currency Wars" provides a rich understanding of the increasing threats to U.S. national security, from dollar devaluation to collapse in the European periphery, failed states in Africa, Chinese neomercantilism, Russian adventurism, and the current scramble for gold."

"The purpose of this study is to provide coroorate treasurers and pohcymakers with a better understandmg of the technical analysis as a legitimate approach for forecastmg the future trend of foreign exchange rates in order to be in a better position to hedge payables and receivables An understandmg of how this analysis is apphed to exchange rate forecastmg strategy should help market participants in terms of makmg more mformed decisions regarding exchange risk management and m terms of formulating currency hedgmg strategies Fundamental analysis is also overviewed concisely to provide market participants with a basic of fundamental based model of exchange rate forecastmg Although fundamental based models may perform relatively well over longer run time periods many market participants may be unwilling to nsk sigmficant amounts of Capital on the basis o f long-term forecasts smce their performance tends to be evaluated over relatively short time spans Given that exchange rates may deviate considerably from their long-run equilibrium path over short- and medium-term periods many market participants will view lt as simply too nsky to take large long or short positions on the basis of forecasts that may take too long to pan out That is a major reason why so many market participants now turn to technical analysis to help them formulate foreign-exchange management decisions particularly over short- to medium term horizons Indeed a strong case can be made for using technical analysis over short- to medium-term horizons since the overwhelming body of empirical evidence indicates that a variety of trend-following techmques would have offered significant nsk adjusted advantages had they been followed ui the past In tims study Indonesian currency rupiah is taken as the object of application of technical analysis for currency forecasting The free floating of rupiah value started from August 97 necessitate Indonesian compames operating on worldwide basis and having payables and receivables in US dollar as well as multinational compames operatmg m Indonesia to exercise an exchange rate forecastmg in order to cover their exposure agamst the volatihty of rupiah Regarding that fact the next purpose of this study is to demonstrate that techmcal approach is applicable for forecastmg the possible future trend of IDR value vis a vis US dollar A reliance on fundamental analysis alone can get corporate policymaker mto trouble smce historical data of the IDR versus USD reflects highly volatile manner that cant be explamed by fundamental approach Bringing technical analysis into the currency decision-making process is more appropnate for the purpose of short- to medium term forecasting that corporate needs The briefs of techniques that will be employed are as follows Trend analysis In a general sense the trend is simply the direction of market which way lt is moving This analysis is performed through the use of sets of trendlmes Channel A channel is a parallel line that can be traced against the trend line Cycles Cycles are the propensity for events to repeat themselves at roughly the same frequency Support and Resistance Levels These levels are useful for taking a position in order to hedge Moving Averages This technique is a trend following indicator that works best in a trending environment Momentum Oscillators This tool is verv usefiil in nontrendmg markets where prices fluctuate in a horizontal banci The Fibonacci ratios percentage retracement are ratios that help to determine price objectives in both impuise and corrective waves by analysis of retracement of the previous moves A composite approach to formulating exchange rates forecastmg strategy would work in the following manner First the market participant will exercise a combination of trend following techniques to assess whether a currencys short- to medium-term trend is bullish bearish or neutral At the same time based on analysis of the fundamental forces drivrng a currency s value over a long term horizon, market participant will determme the equilibrium path that a currency should take over time This exercise should be considered as an accompanymg opinion to the techmcal analysis After a thorough analysis lt is recommended m this study that techmcal analysis is applicable for the IDR versus USD exchange rate forecastmg and the techmcal factors do lead the known fundamentals"